Naked Gold Man: War Horse Un'Lock'ed & Oscar Vote Theories
Sunday, October 2, 2011 at 7:58PM Weekly Column! Just in time for weekly chart updates. You heard me!
Let's start with an oft-forgotten fact: there are no "locks" until films are open and seen by the Academy. Even then, positive reactions don't always translate into votes. War Horse would be the right example. It feels like a winner by way of pedigree (Spielberg and Team), topic (World War), intangibles (the Broadway play on the same topic is a hit!) and early peeks (the trailer), but until voters are actually watching any movie from start to finish, you can't know.
Until you have seen a movie there is no way to consider how it tugs at your own heart (or doesn't), how it seizes your imagination (or doesn't) and how your instant reaction sizes up with general consensus. Instant reactions do not happen in lockstep with voting (at least not usually) and consensus -- which is say the wisdom of masses, media favoritism, and opinions from one's own social circle -- absolutely affects individual response though people regularly feign otherwise.
Seeing the pictures is key and without the keys, aren't locks mere abstractions?
J. Edgar is another prime example. It's got the pedigree team, the baity topic and genre, but the second people are watching it things will change, for better or worse. I can't say that I'm hopeful after seeing the dull musty trailer, which plays more like the zombie corpse of an Oscar contender rather than a lively shiny hopeful. But then, I didn't get the Clint Eastwood Appreciation Gene so I readily admit that I am no representative sample.
To win nominations a film (or performance) must not only win hearts, minds and imaginations but it must stack up favorably against its competition. In other words "locks" for films or actors no one has seen are an absurd notion. Take War Horse again... will its message resonate with voters as much as The Help's? Will the young male lead (no, not the horse) inspire them or make them feel as protective as his counterpart in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close might? Will anything within War Horse, stimulate like the wit and adult soul of Moneyball? Does the equine war drama have any lighter moments and are they as effervescent or charming as the best scenes from The Artist or Midnight in Paris?
If nominations were held RIGHT NOW, right this second, and all films that have been seen by a lot of people -- i.e. multiple festivals (whether they're technically open yet or not) were eligible these would be your only "Locks"
BEST PICTURE (right now)
- Midnight in Paris
- The Artist
- The Help
- Moneyball
And more divisive pictures would be battling it out for the "happy to be nominated" slot(s) be they critical darlings (Tree of Life, Drive) or populist hits (Potter, Apes). But of course, none of the four aforementioned right-now "locks" are locked up. There is no way to win a game before competing game pieces are on the board... unless they forfeit by which we mean "Delayed Until 2012".
All of the increasingly crazy "LOCKED! CERTAIN TO WIN!" Oscar talk in the past couple of weeks for films we're already familiar with makes you think about which films can maintain their "#1 fans" and which films will lose steam. In a year with ten beloved respected hit films, for example, some of them which would have had easy roads to nominations in a weaker year would have to fall by the wayside. The new(ish) voting process will give us a Best Picture lineup that can include anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees depending on the complex % of #1 (and other) votes found on 6,000+ ballots votes. This shifting number of nominees is undoubtedly designed to illuminate whether a year was strong, standard, or absurdly rich but it's all theoretical. We don't know how it'll play out. Our suspicion* is that it won't illuminate the quality of any given year but will instead merely show us which film years reach easier consensus as to what is "BEST". Since we've been talking Spielberg's War Horse consider another Spielberiffic year: 1993. It was a terrific film year. Anyone who lived through it will be nodding their heads in agreement. But does anyone have any doubt that Schindler's List and The Piano hogged way more than a usual % of #1 spots, and there probably wasn't room for more than 5 Best Picture nominees anyway.
Best Actor if they voted right now (but they don't)
- BRAD PITT in a walk. The lineup I'm predicting (Clooney, Pitt, DiCaprio, DuJardin and Oldman) looks all set in stone right now... which means it has to be wrong, right? Someone will chip away at it with a sharp campaign and deface it.
Best Actress if they voted right now (but they don't)
- VIOLA DAVIS vs. GLENN CLOSE. (Yes, yes, Meryl Streep may eventually be a threat but remember: no keys = no locks.) Even if this weren't my favorite annual category I'd find this race quite fascinating as of now because there is only one (widely seen) power and that's Viola. The rest are either indie darlings or largely unseen. Feels wide open to me. How about you?
Best Supporting Actress if they voted right now (but they don't)
- I really have no clue, do you? Or does JESSICA CHASTAIN, who may not even be nominated, win in the imaginary "oscars right now" game simply by virtue of her ubiquity and obvious range? But the further we move into the year the more it feels like a nomination for The Help is possible, right? I recently raved about Anjelica Huston (50/50) but with such a small role in a film that's not going to shake up Oscar in anyway traction will be difficult.
Best Supporting Actor if they voted right now (but they don't)
- ALBERT BROOKS vs. CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER in a neck and neck race for the "lifetime achievement Oscar"... but will they still be locking horns by the time nominations roll around in another 100 days? I wouldn't risk money (yet) on both even being nominated though surely at least one of them will. My predicted lineup in this category (Brooks, Plummer, Branagh, von Sydow and Mortensen) strikes me as remarkably free of age and career diversity. It's composed entirely of men over 50 who've all been nominated and never won each of whom could make a case for a "career" style statue grab. And it doesn't even include Nick Nolte who is another threat within that subcategory of actors... before you ever get to the Hoffmans, Cumberbatches, and Hills. This can't possibly last given the sedative this category usually becomes but right now, it looks alive with possibility and valid intense differences of opinions.
SCREENPLAYS if they voted right now (but they don't)
- In Original Screenplay we'd have to consider that MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is in the lead with THE ARTIST and BRIDESMAIDS in a bizarre battle for second place. That's three comic pieces, though. Right now I've predicted them all but perhaps that's too "light" of a lineup by the time January rolls around. Over in Adapted, MONEYBALL would be your new leader obviously.
- I just saw it so I'm freshly in love but at the moment I'm all about Iran's A SEPARATION... and the buzz is all about Lebanon's WHERE DO WE GO NOW? (which I have not yet seen). So perhaps this year's Foreign Category will have a Middle Eastern theme... at least in terms of the shortlist. Who will win is very hard to foresee in this category ahead of time each year.
VISUAL CATEGORIES and AURAL CATEGORIES
- These fascinate me more than they do most people because I always think it's interesting to see which non Best Picture contending beauties can survive the coattails nominations that Best Picture hopefuls tend to bring in the craft categories (whether or not they're deserving... sometimes they are). The Tree of Life, Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method and Captain America are just a few examples of handsomely mounted successes that may have a tough road toward individual category success. Can they win craft nominations when they're up against more populist or more period or genre lush epics like War Horse, J. Edgar, The Help, Moneyball, War Horse and the Harry Potter finale?
Benedict Cumberbatch investigates the Oscar annex of Price Waterhouse in "Tinker Tailor Oscar Mine"
A lot of questions. Few keys and no locks.
I trust you'll let me know if you have a different suspicion about how the new voting system will affect the Best Picture outcome (I'm guessing 7 best picture nominees) and where we are with all of these races right now. But please take a look around. There's some new text and new rankings and spruced up charts. Oscar predictions are like plants. If you don't water them, they die. This is the plant. Your comments are the water. You know what to do.
J Edgar, Oscars (11), Oscars (90s), The Help, War Horse
Reader Comments (36)
Best Supporting Actress if they voted right now... After watching SNL last night, I'm tempted to say Melissa McCarthy, an actress who stole an immensely popular film, essentially won an Emmy for that film, was an incredibly game SNL host and seems to be universally liked (don't underestimate popularity). Of course, this is if they voted right now... The film is probably too crude for the Academy to go all the way.
Oh and I have the Clint Eastwood Appreciation Gene and I have to admit I really like the J Edgar trailer. Take that as you will.
I'm over Close being an Oscar loser. Best Actress is and will always be about 20 and 30 year olds. Sure 13 women in their 40s have won in the category-- but three of them were repeat winners (Bergman, Fonda, Lange), or on their last leg of eligibility (Maclaine, Sarandon), or one shot deals for raven heads (Cher, Bates, Bullock). 4 women have won it in their 60s-- twice for Hepburn, 1 woman won it in her 70s-- Hepburn for her 4th-- then Nathan's mortal enemy The Tandy beat La Pfeiffer at 80-- although Mirren and Dench could upset that record someday?
I cannot see Octavia Spencer missing a Supporting nomination at this point. I look at what else has come out so far and the other supporting performances all seem to hover at a 'good' level of accomplishment versus Octavia's standout turn - it feels at this point a lot like Mo'nique's candidacy when she won. Is there a serious chance that five performances in the next three months will be so spectacularly good that they knock her off the shortlist?
I saw "Moneyball" yesterday. I turned to the missus after credits started rolling and told her, "This should get nominated for Best Picture...but it won't." I so hope I am wrong and the Academy remembers it in December and January after all the Christmas Bait comes out...sadly, I believe the film will actually need a campaign to get on the Best Picture 'short-ishlist'. My other picks for the film from early in the year look good except for Hoffman, whose performance will not receive recognition and deservedly so...it stunned me that Bennett Miller could not get a better turn from Hoffman, but I also see that the script did not give him enough to work with - this was the Brad and Jonah show, without a doubt. Jonah Hill may have a good shot at Supporting if he and the film are campaigned well. Best Adapted Screenplay is as close to a lock as I have seen in this category. Director is possible, as is Editing and even Cinematography. The story of Billy Beane's unsucessful career as an athlete was cut in effectively (though I do understand that much of that was script-driven) and the other choices on what to include all appeared to be exactly right, and the photography of the ballparks and the port of Oakland were wonderfully done and captured the tone perfectly. And the shot of Billy Beane walking across the playing field at Oakland Alameda County Coliseum was, in my humble opinion, heart-stoppingly beautiful. Or maybe I just like green too much.
I need to stop before I really start to gush...but I did love "Moneyball" every bit as much as I expected to. I can't wait to see it again.
Good round-up. I agree on the Best Picture picks, though I think we'll still have 10 since films only need 4% of the #1 votes to get in. (I think?)
It's funny how seeing a film changes one's perception of the race. I agree that it seems like the 5 actors listed seem 'set in stone' for the Best Actor race, but after seeing Michael Fassbender's stunning, amazing, brilliant, daring, and Meryl-Streep level good performance in SHAME I can't fathom the actor being left out. True, there's lots of risque stuff in the film and either an NC-17 rating or a recut could kill the film's potential, but Fassbender eclipses the other actors thus far. (I haven't seen Oldman's work, though.)
And I'm still mulling on Glenn Close: she's great in Albert Nobbs (especially now that I'm watching Season 3 of 'Damages'... her versatility amazes me), but it's a subtle performance in a film unlike to get 'Best Picture' buzz. But I agree that if the vote was right now, it'd be a Davis/Close knife fight, with me crossing my fingers that Tilda Swinton sneaks by with a win for 'Kevin'.
Best Supporting Actress is probably the hardest to call, so I'll simply put in a good word for Carey Mulligan's heart-breaking work in Shame.
Just wanted to chime in about Carl's take on "Moneyball" above. As someone from the other side of the Bay, I was surprised at how movingly Beane and the team were portrayed. And this from someone who saw the Giants get swept by the A's in 1989!
Swinton is in her 50s now. A dead age group for Best Actress. Like Annette Bening she'll have to settle for Supp. Actress.
You'll remember me for this, but Leo DiCaprio and War Horse will both win in their respective categories. Actress is tough to decipher.
I saw Drive last night and I don't think Albert Brooks will be up for a "lifetime" award. I think he will be up because it was one of the most chilling, surprising, and all around amazing performance I have seen in the last few years.
I'm with Dominique. If the nominations happened right now, Melissa McCarthy would be a lock. But don't worry. There will be enough more traditional Oscar-bait films to ensure that a broad and raunchy comedic performance will get nowhere near the top of the ballots. And then we all get to write "how dare you snub Melissa McCarthy" posts and play a rage-filled game of follow the leader for a good two weeks.
Weekly updates?
You're spoiling us Nathaniel.
BJT -- It's all part of a plan. if it works great. if it doesn't. tears and back to the drawing board.
Thomas -- while i agree that he's very good in the film, lifetime achievement prizes don't necessarily have to come with weak performances ... I mean, Jeff Bridges was aces in Crazy Heart, was he not? But it was still a career prize, you know? Also as good as Brooks is in the film, he wouldn't have gotten the reviews he's gotten or the "surprising" factor, if he weren't Albert Brooks. but yes i see your point ;)
/3rt -- ugh. why must you remind me of my own research and soapbox. let me dream of a better world where actresses aren't sent to a Logan's Run style doom the second they turn 50.
Thank God for your research. I'm now at peace about Bates never earning another nomination for a possible 2nd Oscar. I'm also more open to Pfeiffer, Weaver, Close, Bening, Moore, etc getting their overdue statuettes in Supporting Actress-- no more stigma!
By the way-- Julia Roberts, Nicole, Theron, I'm looking at them hard because they only have so much time to get a 2nd Lead actress Oscar-- the same for Winslet.
Based on the trailer and basically all recent Clint Eastwood work, I actually think J.Edgar is going to bomb and Leo will be left out in best actor. My intuition is that the lineup will be
Brad Pitt
George Clooney
Jean Dujardin
Gary Oldman
Michael Fassbender
that last spot I think is a toss up between the two rising stars of the moment, but unless the Ides of March hits big with the Academy, which it just may, I suspect it will be Fassbender over Gosling
Don't see the Melissa McCarthy nod happening...she was already feted at The Emmys for Bridesmaids. There are so many films opening outside the festival circuit that the prospect of shake-ups is almost certain especially in best actress.
/3RT, Nathaniel:
Even if Swinton weren't in her 50s, she wouldn't be in the running now. She's never been on their radar other than for the Oscar-friendly Michael Clayton.
I managed to see a couple of these films at film fest. Shame, and Fassbender's performance may turn some people. It is going to be NC17 or unrated. While its a great performance I will be shocked if he gets nominated for this with such a competitive lineup. However, I think it will help him push for A Dangerous Method and Jane Eyre if he goes supporting on those.
And for Oldman, he's always good. But I think his performance in Tinker is way to subtle to make him a lock, unless Tinker does really well with the Academy. Same as Gosling in Ides. Both are really good films in my opinion.
After watching A Separation for the second time and seeing the rousing response it got for an early afternoon showing, I think if enough people see it then it can sneak into the Top 8--especially in Picture, Directing and Original Screenplay. If it gets nominated for OS then I think it could even actually win--a la Pedro for Talk To Her.
Sony Picture Classics is launching a MASSIVE campaign. Watch out for this film. It's been taking each film festival by storm and audiences LOVE it. It's also the first film of 2011 to make it in IMDB's Top 250 (a huge feat considering it hasn't even been released in the US yet).
If "Shame" gets that NC-17 rating, voters won't touch it with a ten-foot pole or Fassbender. There's always "A Dangerous Method" for him instead.
Streep should hit her performance out of the park and add to the momentum that is keeping her #1 with gold derby oscarologists and gurus of gold.
Wasn't Melissa McCarthy's win at the Emmys the ultimate category fraud?
Not only was her supporting role switched to lead but she won a Television Academy Award for a movie role. I watched an episode of her show she supposedly was nominated for, and, Jesus Christ, that is one bad show.
Mike B -- i loved A Separation too.... and I'm happy that Sony Pictures Classics is behind it to such a strong degree but i wish they'd take their own cues (like how they handle Almodovar pictures) and move up its release date. When they gain momentum for more than just foreign film, it's usually films that have had time to build. Giving it The White Ribbon's lame last second shove into one or two theaters before NY's eve to qualify is just not going to do it for the major categories i don't think. But original screenplay would be a valid play if they opened it bigger and sooner i think.
Whilst I think about it, you might want to add Melancholia to Sound Editing posibilites.
Sure the film has problems, like the Cannes comments thing, but the soundscape is essential to the success of the movie, and it might just sneak in.
Wow. So much written about such a simple concept. Just because something is put at a number one position doesn't mean it's a lock. It just means it looks like a lock. It's (or it should be understood) because predictions are just that. Predictions.
There.
And so there is nothing wrong with saying that something looks like the most likely contender for a nomination. And War Horse does.
Warhorse has so much going for it that I do muse over how it will turn out. (Idle musing of course).
Although the puppet horses were a great strength of the play, I can see that a real horse would be warmer and more engaging for a movie. I wonder if they've made the same horse casting choices that Secretariat did though, where they cast several horses to play Secretariat, depending on the shot. Strangely, I think you don't get a good sense of the character of the horse that way and so your emotions are less affected. Would you cast a dozen blonde actresses in their 20s to play the same part, because they're like, interchangeable, you know?
I like the horse stories like Hidalgo, where Viggo Mortensen and the horse (Paint?) bonded so well that Viggo bought the horse at the end of production (as he did for his LOTR horse).
Maxim -- you're totally right but the way people use the word "lock" makes me crazy. I've read on other websites that 5 or 6 things are LOCKS already that aren't released. It's okay to say they seem like winners but LOCKS indicate a done deal. like Helen Mirren winning for The Queen which was obvious months before it happened after people watched the movie and were'a ll OMGHELENMIRRENISTHEQUEEN ;)
Adri: Luis Bunuel did something similar on one of his movies. But Bunuel is a surrealist who's movies depend on unease. Also, I'm Not There.
Just on the McCarthy note; I find it unfair. Don't me wrong, her show isn't any good, but I don't see how the Emmys merely gave it to her for being good in Bridesmaids. Carrell has never won an Emmy despite a now film career that blossomed alongside the show. Equally, years of people loving Buscemi didn't translate to a win for Boardwalk Empire, which instead went to the far lesser known Chandler.
@Lara....Say what you will about McCarthy not deserving the Emmy (I agree), but category fraud? She is the LEAD, as in MOLLY in MIKE & MOLLY.
Yibbet, she was obviously kidding!!! Most people are convinced that Melissa McCarthy won the Emmy because of Bridesmaids, and I don't know if they're right or not, but I still think she does a pretty good job in Mike & Molly. It's not a great show, but at its best it's a sweet, charming comedy about two people finding love and working to maintain their relationship, and there are moments that are pretty tender (and McCarthy rises above the material more often than not). Also, I think Melissa McCarthy has deserved an Emmy since Gilmore Girls, so either way, it's great that she's getting recognition. By the way, I know a lot of people like to trash CBS sitcoms, but it seems the Emmys recognize the ones they like (remember Julia Louis-Dreyfuss won an Emmy for The New Adventures of Old Christine, to me that was an even weaker show).
On Melissa McCarthy's Emmy win: She was nominated for Mike & Molly, gained momentum for Bridesmaid, and ultimate won for Gilmore Girls. There.
As for Oscars, I'm hoping Drive makes the shortlist in a bunch of technical awards if the big awards aren't likely.
@volvagia - unease is the perfect word for it. And did you also want to linger at that cafe table in Midnight in Paris, with Bunuel, Man Ray, and Dali? What fun that would be.
It's pretty shameful that Melissa McCarthy won an Emmy for "Mike & Molly." The episode she submitted didn't come close to anyone else in the field. Laura Linney? Amy Poehler? Tina Fey? Please. Farce. Let's call a spade a spade and say that voters were starstruck over "Bridesmaids" and voted for her in that. I watched "Mike & Molly" last night, and god, that was an awful show. And after seeing what McCarthy is capable of ("Bridesmaids" and "SNL," which is the ONLY Emmy-worthy thing she's done so far), it's sad that she's saddled on this show for multiple years. Anyway, let's start the legitimate campaign to get Melissa McCarthy a supporting actress nod for "Bridesmaids."
I don't see anything as a lock until it's actually been seen by more than 1 or 2 folks willing to talk about it. That leaves out J. Edgar, Girl with the Dragon Tatoo, War Horse, etc. J. Edgar is already in the pre-dismissal phase, but it will be seen around October 14 at some film fest in Carmel so word will be out.
I'm just cruising your blog, looking for the best place to post my current Oscar predictions I just felt like starting to make up my mind about (though of course I know nothing compared to you, Nathaniel), of course also largely influenced by your posts. Here seems the least unfitting place.
--Disclamer-- I have seen none of the movies mentioned, except HP7:2 *sigh*
Best Lead Actor (reason why)
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar (big star, big sounding movie)
Michael Fassbender - A Dangerous Method (next big thing)
Ryan Gosling - Ides of March (apologies for Blue Valentine)
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (King of Actors Overlooked by Oscar)
Michael Shannon - Take Shelter (he's awesome!)
Winner: Gary Oldman (Apologies for overlooking him so long)
Best Lead Actress (reason why)
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs (buzz + apologies for FA/DL)
Viola Davis - The Help (reportedly she's great)
Kirsten Dunst - Melancholia (right age + she was great and not rewarded before)
Elizabeth Olsen - Martha Marcy May Marlene (this year's Jennifer Lawrence)
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady (biopic + great character + she's Meryl Streep)
Winner: Glenn Close (Apologies for FA/DL)
Best Supporting Actor (reason why)
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn (playing another actor HE WAS BORN TO PLAY)
John Hawkes - Martha Marcy May Marlene (Winter's Bone Reprise)
Viggo Mortensen - A Dangerous Method (lock)
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life (good, often under-estimated actor, but will he ever win)
Christopher Plummer - Beginners (good sounding role + career achievement)
Winner: Christopher Plummer (see: James Coburn - Affliction)
Best Supporting Actress (reason why)
Jessica Chastain - The Tree of Life (she's almost bound to be nominated for one of her many roles this year, and that's probably the one most people ever heard about her and will remember her for)
Judi Dench - J. Edgar (because she is Dame Judi Dench and it is a very American movie)
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs (Glenn Close buzz, and you, Nathaniel, said she's awesome here)
Octavia Spencer - The Help (There always are first-time previously unknown nominees, and you are so hardly predicting her, Nathaniel)
Mia Wasikowska - Albert Nobbs (in this category double nominees for one film are quite common, and this isn't Mia's first role to be in talks... [only saw her in TVs "In Treatment" so far, but loved her)
Winner: Jessica Chastain (because my other predicted winning actors will be 53, 64, 85... and there has to be one younger winner... and I think it's too early for Mia)
Best Director (reason why)
David Cronenberg - A Dangerous Method (Famous unrewarded director, movie with good-sounding material)
David Fincher - The Girl with the Pearl Earring (Apologies for not letting him win for The Social Network)
Clint Eastwood - J. Edgar (he's Clint Eastwood and the movie is bound to be a major player)
Steve McQueen - Shame (why not? He has been critically acclaimed before)
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life (it could be his last chance to win)
Winner: Terrence Malick (it could be his last chance to win)
Picture:
The Artist (acclaimed foreign picture to make it seem less commercial)
A Dangerous Method (famous people biopic)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows: Part 2 (to reward the whole series)
The Help (serious drama/surprise success)
J. Edgar (famous person biopic)
Moneyball (seems big and people like it)
The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick will have to win the Oscar for this)
Winner:
Hard if not impossible to say, but consequently to my previous statements it will have to be: The Tree of Life
*D'Oh!* David Fincher - The Girl with the DRAGON TATTOO - not *Pearl Earring* of course, that was another, not to bad, but not the great movie either...
Adri: No, because, regrettably, I have not seen Midnight in Paris. Want to see more Woody Allen, though and this is something I'd definitely see if the local Blockbuster was open.