The Film Experience

With more and more of the heretofore unseen contenders (Tintin, J Edgar, Young Adult, War Horse etcetera) beginning to show their goods to tastemakers and balloting voters of various orgs & circles & associations... where to now? Or when to?

Time is a funny thing with Oscar watching. Though the race progresses chronologically in familiar ways each year through its many stages, it's simultaneously a non-linear experience. We're always hopping around in the timeline from the future (What Will Happen on Oscar Nomination Morning? On Oscar Night?) to the past (Statistics, Past Grudges, Happy Memories, The Perennial Subject of "Overdue" and "Momentum" and Over Analysis of Things That Just Happened). Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. The time we're very rarely in is the present. If we're in the present at all (wrist check: it's 2:19 PM on 11|06|11 as I begin writing this) it's to take immediate stock of our surroundings and then suddenly we're gone again. We've either instantly reduced the present to how we predict it will affect the future... or we've turned it into validation of our past biases or predictions.

A hypothetical example now. J Edgar reactions* range from reverential but not unqualified raves to respectful with a heavy cloud of "meh" to plain old "wow, it's just not any good!" thumbs down. Which means...

J. EDGAR is... [check whichever box applies in your hypothetical future tenses]

⎕ Still in key races. It's a biopic by Eastwood.
⌧ Out of the race but for Best Actor because it's that kind of role and he's that kind of star.
⎕ Going to bomb with Oscar and the public.

* no, I don't know why some critics have to obey embargoes and some don't.

That's all hypothetical, understood?!?

ACTOR, ACTRESS, and PICTURE past | present | future after the jump.

I've updated all the Oscar Predictions Charts to reflect where we might end up based on these present tense assertions but let's look at each Oscar race and try to be conscious of the time with nominations still 75 days out:

BEST ACTOR
Past: Leonardo DiCaprio has been declared the future winner many times over the course of the past year and that will probably have to wait for a different "next February". In Sept everyone seemed to agree that the future shortlist was easy to read: Leo, Gary, George, Brad, & Jean.

Future: We're guessing it's real life friends Brad vs. George with Dujardin as the loveable darkhorse spoiler for the win. Fassy will be 'happy to be nominated' and Leo just barely holds on for the nod, it being that kind of role and him being that kind of star.

Present Tense: Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Demián Bichir (A Better Life) and Woody Harrelson (Rampart) are all on the campaign trail (parties, screenings, lunches, whatnot). Do their teams sense a J. Edgar sized gaping hole in the shortlist that's curiously in the exact shape of that contender like a cartoon cutout or is everyone gunning for the arthouse slot (if there is such a thing this year) which is no done deal for Fassy (Shame) given the NC-17?

Aren't they all fighting for the fifth spot? Fassy in the lead.

Awards Tally Thus Far (Not That We're Counting)
SUNDANCE - Peter Mullan, Tyrannosaur (world cinema special jury prize shared with co-star Olivia Colman)
BERLIN - The male cast of A Separation
CANNES - Jean Dujardin, The Artist
VENICE - Michael Fassbender, Shame

Specials and Tributes
HOLLYWOOD - Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50 (breakthrough prize)
HOLLYWOOD & TELLURIDE - George Clooney (The Descendants)
GOTHAM - Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

BEST ACTRESS
Past: When the year began and for many of the months that followed all anyone could see was a 1980s style rematch between Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) though they both lost those direct competition battles in 1987 and 1988 so it's hardly a Bening vs. Swank deal. History may well repeat itself next February with both losing again! In the summer Viola Davis quietly walked into the room and has remained there ever since as our heavily debatable "frontrunner" though the term means little into the nominations change from virtual to official.

Future: Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) are the only remaining unseen variables. Though everyone assumes that Meryl is locked up for a nomination sight unseen this isn't actually statistically reasonable as she has not been nominated for 100% of her screen roles. To play devil's advocate, but mostly to remind us that we're still 75+ days away from the nominations... and that film is behaving somewhat suspiciously -- it just moved back to December 30th. Ruh-roh. I'm placing her just outside the shortlist this week to see how it feels and I'm predicting: Viola, Glenn, Charlize, Elizabeth and Michelle as Marilyn.

Present Tense: Elizabeth Olsen is keeping her name in the mix with her inexhaustible promotion of MMMM and Felicity Jones's name crops back up now that Like Crazy is in limited release. In fact, it's really just those two Sundance girls that are in the theaters at this point. The rest of our presumed field, barring Viola Davis who may never leave theaters given The Help's longevity, have yet to properly open their films. Actresses (sigh) ...always keeping us waiting!

Stop calling Felicity, you're still in the hunt!Competitive Awards Tally (Not That We're Counting)
SUNDANCE - Felicity Jones, Like Crazy (special jury prize)
SUNDANCE - Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur (world cinema special jury prize shared with co-star Peter Mullan)
BERLIN - the female cast of A Separation
CANNES - Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia -Cannes
VENICE - Deanie Yip, A Simple Life (not eligible for Oscar here but submitted for Foreign)

Specials and Tributes
WOMEN IN HOLLYWOOD EMERGING STAR - Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
WOMEN IN HOLLYWOOD - Viola Davis (The Help)
HOLLYWOOD - Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
GOTHAM -Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
TELLURIDE - Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin)
HOLLYWOOD & SAN SEBASTIAN TRIBUTES -Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

BEST PICTURE
Past: Before any of the movies were open people were banking most heavily on The Tree of Life, J Edgar, and War Horse because they all come from "master" filmmakers. It's easy to burden new films from masters with unrealistic expectations. The Artist, without any such burdens, sent spirit soaring at Cannes, The Help, with different burdnes, became the year's biggest surprise hit. The Descendants, with a fraction of those burdens, keeps gaining heat as more people see it. Past history suggests that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two won't win more than a few Oscar nominations but they're going to try. There's already a lovely "Consider..." booklet, nay, tome in the hands of voters.

Future: War Horse, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are still largely unseen and could thus be either massive Oscar hits or evaporate with exposure.

Present Tense: Slow and steady, as the stories suggest, is a good way to win a race. Oscar is a marathon but there's a lot of sprinting towards the end. But things are still looking really good for The Help, Moneyball, and Midnight in Paris which have all proven themselves in the ways Best Picture contenders can prove themselves outside of the actual awards season. The next test is... oh, no. We're drifting to the future again.

War Boy (Jeremy Irvine) and War Mom (Emily Watson) presumably talking about War Horse.

Awards Tally Thus Far (Not That We're Counting)
SUNDANCE: Like Crazy (Martha Marcy... won directing)
BERLIN: A Separation (eligible in all categories but the arguable frontrunner in foreign film)
CANNES: The Tree of Life (Drive won directing)
VENICE: Faust (not eligible for Oscar)