Naked Gold Man: Oscar Wears No Watch, But It's All in the Timing
Sunday, November 6, 2011 at 9:30PM 
With more and more of the heretofore unseen contenders (Tintin, J Edgar, Young Adult, War Horse etcetera) beginning to show their goods to tastemakers and balloting voters of various orgs & circles & associations... where to now? Or when to?
Time is a funny thing with Oscar watching. Though the race progresses chronologically in familiar ways each year through its many stages, it's simultaneously a non-linear experience. We're always hopping around in the timeline from the future (What Will Happen on Oscar Nomination Morning? On Oscar Night?) to the past (Statistics, Past Grudges, Happy Memories, The Perennial Subject of "Overdue" and "Momentum" and Over Analysis of Things That Just Happened). Back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. The time we're very rarely in is the present. If we're in the present at all (wrist check: it's 2:19 PM on 11|06|11 as I begin writing this) it's to take immediate stock of our surroundings and then suddenly we're gone again. We've either instantly reduced the present to how we predict it will affect the future... or we've turned it into validation of our past biases or predictions.
A hypothetical example now. J Edgar reactions* range from reverential but not unqualified raves to respectful with a heavy cloud of "meh" to plain old "wow, it's just not any good!" thumbs down. Which means...
J. EDGAR is... [check whichever box applies in your hypothetical future tenses]
⎕ Still in key races. It's a biopic by Eastwood.
⌧ Out of the race but for Best Actor because it's that kind of role and he's that kind of star.
⎕ Going to bomb with Oscar and the public.
* no, I don't know why some critics have to obey embargoes and some don't.
That's all hypothetical, understood?!?
ACTOR, ACTRESS, and PICTURE past | present | future after the jump.
I've updated all the Oscar Predictions Charts to reflect where we might end up based on these present tense assertions but let's look at each Oscar race and try to be conscious of the time with nominations still 75 days out:
BEST ACTOR
Past: Leonardo DiCaprio has been declared the future winner many times over the course of the past year and that will probably have to wait for a different "next February". In Sept everyone seemed to agree that the future shortlist was easy to read: Leo, Gary, George, Brad, & Jean.
Future: We're guessing it's real life friends Brad vs. George with Dujardin as the loveable darkhorse spoiler for the win. Fassy will be 'happy to be nominated' and Leo just barely holds on for the nod, it being that kind of role and him being that kind of star.
Present Tense: Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Demián Bichir (A Better Life) and Woody Harrelson (Rampart) are all on the campaign trail (parties, screenings, lunches, whatnot). Do their teams sense a J. Edgar sized gaping hole in the shortlist that's curiously in the exact shape of that contender like a cartoon cutout or is everyone gunning for the arthouse slot (if there is such a thing this year) which is no done deal for Fassy (Shame) given the NC-17?
Aren't they all fighting for the fifth spot? Fassy in the lead.
Awards Tally Thus Far (Not That We're Counting)
SUNDANCE - Peter Mullan, Tyrannosaur (world cinema special jury prize shared with co-star Olivia Colman)
BERLIN - The male cast of A Separation
CANNES - Jean Dujardin, The Artist
VENICE - Michael Fassbender, Shame
Specials and Tributes
HOLLYWOOD - Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50/50 (breakthrough prize)
HOLLYWOOD & TELLURIDE - George Clooney (The Descendants)
GOTHAM - Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
BEST ACTRESS
Past: When the year began and for many of the months that followed all anyone could see was a 1980s style rematch between Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) though they both lost those direct competition battles in 1987 and 1988 so it's hardly a Bening vs. Swank deal. History may well repeat itself next February with both losing again! In the summer Viola Davis quietly walked into the room and has remained there ever since as our heavily debatable "frontrunner" though the term means little into the nominations change from virtual to official.
Future: Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) are the only remaining unseen variables. Though everyone assumes that Meryl is locked up for a nomination sight unseen this isn't actually statistically reasonable as she has not been nominated for 100% of her screen roles. To play devil's advocate, but mostly to remind us that we're still 75+ days away from the nominations... and that film is behaving somewhat suspiciously -- it just moved back to December 30th. Ruh-roh. I'm placing her just outside the shortlist this week to see how it feels and I'm predicting: Viola, Glenn, Charlize, Elizabeth and Michelle as Marilyn.
Present Tense: Elizabeth Olsen is keeping her name in the mix with her inexhaustible promotion of MMMM and Felicity Jones's name crops back up now that Like Crazy is in limited release. In fact, it's really just those two Sundance girls that are in the theaters at this point. The rest of our presumed field, barring Viola Davis who may never leave theaters given The Help's longevity, have yet to properly open their films. Actresses (sigh) ...always keeping us waiting!
Stop calling Felicity, you're still in the hunt!Competitive Awards Tally (Not That We're Counting)
SUNDANCE - Felicity Jones, Like Crazy (special jury prize)
SUNDANCE - Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur (world cinema special jury prize shared with co-star Peter Mullan)
BERLIN - the female cast of A Separation
CANNES - Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia -Cannes
VENICE - Deanie Yip, A Simple Life (not eligible for Oscar here but submitted for Foreign)
Specials and Tributes
WOMEN IN HOLLYWOOD EMERGING STAR - Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
WOMEN IN HOLLYWOOD - Viola Davis (The Help)
HOLLYWOOD - Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
GOTHAM -Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
TELLURIDE - Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin)
HOLLYWOOD & SAN SEBASTIAN TRIBUTES -Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
BEST PICTURE
Past: Before any of the movies were open people were banking most heavily on The Tree of Life, J Edgar, and War Horse because they all come from "master" filmmakers. It's easy to burden new films from masters with unrealistic expectations. The Artist, without any such burdens, sent spirit soaring at Cannes, The Help, with different burdnes, became the year's biggest surprise hit. The Descendants, with a fraction of those burdens, keeps gaining heat as more people see it. Past history suggests that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two won't win more than a few Oscar nominations but they're going to try. There's already a lovely "Consider..." booklet, nay, tome in the hands of voters.
Future: War Horse, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close are still largely unseen and could thus be either massive Oscar hits or evaporate with exposure.
Present Tense: Slow and steady, as the stories suggest, is a good way to win a race. Oscar is a marathon but there's a lot of sprinting towards the end. But things are still looking really good for The Help, Moneyball, and Midnight in Paris which have all proven themselves in the ways Best Picture contenders can prove themselves outside of the actual awards season. The next test is... oh, no. We're drifting to the future again.
War Boy (Jeremy Irvine) and War Mom (Emily Watson) presumably talking about War Horse.
Awards Tally Thus Far (Not That We're Counting)
SUNDANCE: Like Crazy (Martha Marcy... won directing)
BERLIN: A Separation (eligible in all categories but the arguable frontrunner in foreign film)
CANNES: The Tree of Life (Drive won directing)
VENICE: Faust (not eligible for Oscar)
OSCAR PREDICTION UPDATES
PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPP ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS
ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARIES | FOREIGN | SCREENPLAY | VISUAL | AURAL
Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Picture, J Edgar, Meryl Streep, Oscars (11)
Reader Comments (28)
I have been reading your blog for a couple of years now. You never seem to have positive comments to say about Dicaprio.....just about how he is not that good, stale, and basically overrated.
I think he is a terrific actor who just keeps getting better and better! I am dissappointed that J. Edgar wasn't that well received.
I wonder if we might see dark horse The Lady instead of The Iron Lady. A more sympathetic political figure and played by the wonderful Michelle Yeoh. Has an Asian woman been nominated for an Oscar since Teahouse of the August Moon in the 1950s?
I haven't seen Take Shelter yet, but I find Michael Shannon endlessly fascinating. I don't understand when people make comments as if he is not good-looking, because I love looking at him. All that artistry and talent and intelligence - it just makes me happy.
And I agree with your comment, Nathaniel, that Scorsese could be a surprise candidate for directing Hugo. Along with The Artist, a resurgence of appreciation for love of the cinema would be a cheerful and optimistic counterpoint to everything else. Maybe then we could have Dunst in Melancholia to balance it out.
That's because he *is* stale and basically overrated. I would also agree that he's getting better and better - at giving the exact same performance.
Have you heard this about Harvey allegedly believing more in Michelle Williams than Streep?
http://www.ukscreen.com/article.htm?article_id=40851#.TrcsUs1DJBQ.twitter
Don't know how credible that source is, but the move to Dec. 30th would seem to support the notion.
I feel about Albert Brooks in Drive the way I felt about William Hurt in A History of Violence, which had such terrific lead performances, directing, editing, script, and what it gets nominated for is...William Hurt?! Albert Brooks is not the best thing about Drive IMO.
Nathaniel, no Christopher Plummer? What the heck?
I don't see Picture or Director happening for J. Edgar, but then again, I never did see it happening to begin with. I think it'll get in for Actor and Makeup, and it also has a shot at Art Direction and *maybe* Supporting Actor (but that's only if the competition ends up being weak).
I like the "lock" thing ;)
I do think, however that Bejo is more of a lock than REdgrave at this point. Maybe because The Artist will be LOVED by the Academy and if they loved The King's Speech ebough to nominate HBC, I'm sure Bejo is safe, if not the most likely to win.
PS: Leo has 3 nominations, so far - not 4.
@adri absolutely. But I am happy that Brooks is at least getting some attention. I wondered if the news from FilmDistrict will affect his chances. I would love to see the films and the others (Winding Refn, Gosling) getting some attention though, even from some oddball groups. San Diego? Toronto? SF? Maybe even some guilds or BFCA/GG?
History repeats itself, don't you know? What will be the 5+ Best Picture nominees this year? I believe they will be (seeing three out of the six):
1. The Artist
2. The Ides of March
3. Moneyball
4. The Tree of Life
5. War Horse
6. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Why?
2011 films which are better than previous Best Picture nominees:
The Ides of March > Michael Clayton (starring George Clooney; Ides is equally good as his Best Picture nominated Good Night and Good Luck.)
Moneyball > Capote (director Bennett Miller)
The Tree of Life > The Thin Red Line (director Terrence Malick)
{according to early reviews}
The Artist - everyone seems to like it.
The Descendants < Sideways (director Alexander Payne; with Clooney and Woodley as nominees, same as Nicholson and Bates in Payne's About Schmidt)
J. Edgar < Million Dollar Baby (director Clint Eastwood)
Young Adult < Juno (director Jason Reitman)
War Horse (AKA Saving Private Albert's Horse) can't be worse than Munich, can it?
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - Strong source material, recognizable stars, tear-jerking story, an amazing unprecedented 4th Best Director nomination for 4th movie for Stephen Daldry (Billy Elliot, The Hours, The Reader)?
And I don't see these as Best Picture nominees with less than 10 films in the run: The Help, Midnight in Paris, We Bought a Zoo, Drive, Carnage, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Shame.
Well DiCpario is overrated and he is very good at playing dialectic versions of the same character over and over again. I want to see him in less baity roles and channel feelings like happiness, joy, nerdism...etc
I have lots of films to catch up with so looking foward to a fiest very soon. Im glad that Streep is "dropping" cause there are other actresses this year doing wonderfully. AND Im still hoping that Swinton will be nominated even though she could care less about the Oscar circus
I think a year that could of been one of the most exciting for Best Actress is underwhelming!
There has been incredible work, Swinton in WNTTAK and Colman in Tyrannosaur, but neither will be nominated.
My probably crazy predicition is Emma Stone for The Help. The Help is an Oscarish movie with amazing acting throughout and Emma is great in it and you know the Academy love her. I think Viola and Emma will be nom'd for Lead, with Viola winning and Octavia and Jessica in Supporting, with neither winning. In an ideal world, my world, Allison Janney would also be in contention.
As for living in Oscar past, I'm still not over Brokeback.
"Going to bomb with Oscar and the public."
And Oldman is dropped from the Top 5?
Jordan -- Christopher Plummer is currently at #1 so I'm not sure what you mean.
Jessica - I just am doubting that they'll suddenly love Oldman after all these years.
nic -- which FilmDistrict thing are you referring to?
Iron Lady release date delayed until Dec 30!
//"...but I find Michael Shannon endlessly fascinating. I don't understand when people make comments as if he is not good-looking, because I love looking at him. All that artistry and talent and intelligence - it just makes me happy."//
adri - I was watching The Runaways last year and absolutely transfixed by him. I kept thinking "what have I seen him in before?" and looked at imbd. (there was something about his face, and the intensity of his performance, that felt so familiar somehow.) As best as I can tell, nothing...except seeing stills of him on this and other film blogs due to his perfs in Bug, Revolutionary Road, etc. It may simply have been that he did such a good job of channeling the character, the spirit of that period, tapping into a bit of Bowie (?), a bit of this and that. He reminds me in that sense of Caroline O'Conner in Moulin Rouge (though her role is much more limited); I simply cannot take my eyes off of him.
Ah, I see now. It just wasn't updated on the index even though the film's poster is there, so I was slightly confused :)
The Animated Film race is a joke. Give or take Shrek (which was such a Box Office phenom and largely critically praised at the time), the Academy has always managed to get a solid winner out of the race, even when they didn't have a great slate of nominees-Spirited Away, Nemo, Incredibles, W&G, Happy Feet, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up! and Toy Story 3 may not be perfect movies (well, maybe WALL-E is), but they are all solid strong films that are not going to tarnish the title of Oscar-winning. Now, the Song and Makeup categories long ago made it possible for terrible films to have that title, but it's a pity that since the Pixar insurance policy of quality has lapsed that there isn't a "super strong" film to swoop and keep that long string of excellent films winninig going. Where's Hayao Miyazaki when you need him?
Jordan -- sorry about that. god how i need a proofreader these days.
John T -- yeah, it'd be the right year for Miyazaki again. Though... perhaps Chico & Rita or one of the foreign films are exceptional?
Janice -- Bug is really worth a watch as it's so divisive and interesting. The play though -- if you ever get a chance to see it -- way better as it really thrives on the energy of being in their crazy space with them as they lose their minds.
hey nat, Bob Berney is departing FilmDistrict after the Rum Diary's box office flop. I read that he's staying till March. Whole thing sounded kind of rocky. They still have In the Land of Blood and Honey but also a few potential flops. Should we be worrying about their Oscar campaigns without Bob Berney?
Sasha Stone gave J. Edgar a (pretty much unqualified) rave today ... she has good judgment. She predicts possible noms for Actor, Director, Screenplay and Makeup and a possible win for Actor.
Don't a lot of Oscar films end up getting a late-December or Jan./Feb. release date? Or is that just when the little people are allowed to see these films who don't live in New York and LA. Why is the 12/30 release date a death knell for Streep? Aren't critics going to see "The Iron Lady" soon anyway? The NYFCC will decide this month on their winners, and I'm guessing that screeners in a rough form are already out there of "The Iron Lady." It just hasn't been given a wide release yet.
Well, Sasha loved Invictus, too, and look how that turned out. She's heavily in the tank for both DiCaprio and Eastwood, by her own admission. At this point, I could easily see DiCaprio shut out. I'm not convinced the Academy loves him.
@Suzanne with all due respect I don't think many of the oscar pundits are that reliable when it come to film critiques. They are more knowledgable on history and stats of the Oscar race. But of course there are exceptions!
Suzanne -- i will be fucking depressed if that happens because it is... not... good.
Fitz -- The Iron Lady is not yet screening for critics, no.
Close just won best actress at Tokyo International Film Festival 9 days ago. As far as i know, no acting winner there ever went on to win an Oscar.
The only performance I really liked in "J Edger" is from Naomi Watts, who did a fantastic job playing an underwritten part, and was given the only believable old-age makeup in the cast. It's ironic that in a film that's about one of the most secretive man in the world, her character turned out to be the one that kept me guessing and invested.
Don't get all the raves for Leo (yet another OCD character) or even Hammer, both were fine whenever they are not "old" (more like young men with terrible skin disease), but when they are (a lot), I just couldn't help but giggle.
I might end up eating my words on this one, but I think people may be underestimating "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy." Yes, it's cool and cerebral, which are not Academy traits, but I still think it has a lot going for it. The British vote, box office smash (in Britain, at least), Focus Features campaigning, gigantic ensemble of up-and-comers and established stars, sterling pedigree, "indie" without being too indie, and so on.
I can really see this movie catching on in the U.S. and with the Academy.