With only 66 days to go before Oscar nominations, it was time to overhaul the charts. We're but one month away from the mad flush of precursors but so many questions are still unanswered.
TIER 1. FRONTRUNNERS
What We Know: Argo is all locked up for Picture and Director having won applause from both critics and general audiences and I've always said that Oscar voter tastes are, roughly, a fusion of those two things; Silver Linings Playbook is a safe bet in the major categories but contemporary films always struggle with nomination counts since the craft branches largely ignore them; Though Les Misérables is as yet unseen it's certain to rack up a handful of nods however it goes -- worst case scenario consider that Nine (2009) won 4 nominations despite scathing reviews -- and two handfuls if it's as good as people are hoping.
What We Don't Know: Can Les Misérables manage two supporting actress nominations or will Anne Hathaway's likely coronation suck the oxygen out of the room for other players; Will Hugh Jackman be able to part the great sea of biographical performances in order to compete for Best Actor -- I'm guessing yes but by a hair; Can Argo manage two supporting actor nominations for Bryan Cranston and Alan Arkin? Arkin has the "fun" role but Cranston has undeniably become a major actor's actor over the past handful of years. Though double nods are common in Supporting Actress that hasn't happened in Supporting Actor since Bugsy (1991)
TIER 2. MAJOR PLAYERS?
What We Know: People love the performances in The Sessions (review) The Master and Amour (review); The Academy loves Denzel Washington (Flight) something fierce and they haven't had a way to really nominate him for Best Actor given his filmography since his last win; The Academy never gave Hitchcock an Oscar -- only an Irving Thalberg -- and the movie which focuses on his most famous film (Psycho) and even makes a point of pointing out the lack of thank yous from the industry!
What We Don't Know: Whether or not the various branches will vote for any of these things... I kid, I kid. It is always thus; Can Amour capitalize on a decade of critical worship of Michael Haneke to become a major player? Anything about Zero Dark Thirty really beyond Jessica Chastain being its lead actress and what the subject matter and the outcome is (true story -- already spoiler alerted by history!) It starts screening just after Thanksgiving.
TIER 3. DAVIDS TO THE GOLIATHS?
What We Already Know: This has been a truly exciting year at the movies... just look at that collage of films which could theoretically win multiple nominations! Even the films which met with disapproval in some corners (like Prometheus or Snow White and the Huntsman) have undeniably worthy tech elements. So much of this year's Oscar nominations seem dependent on strong FYC campaigns.
What We Don't Know: Can Anna Karenina surge to life upon release after a confusing response at festivals. It is astonishingly beautiful but will AMPAS warm to its bold experimentation?; Can Skyfall capitalize on this year's loud Bond-Mania for visual and sound prizes even though Oscar has been notoriously stingy with this franchise?; AMPAS has been loosening up when it comes to genre films lately but there are so many this year (The Avengers, The Hobbit, The Dark Knight Rises, Looper, Snow White and the Huntsman, Cloud Atlas) that vote splitting is likely... so which survive the brutal competition?
Care to answer the "we don't know" questions in the comments?
PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS | SUPP ACTOR | VISUAL | AURAL | SCREENPLAYS
ANIMATION | FOREIGN FILMS (I'm aware that the charts are malfunctioning in foreign films and will be attempting fixes this week)