November Oscar Updates!
Sunday, November 4, 2012 at 12:02PM With only 66 days to go before Oscar nominations, it was time to overhaul the charts. We're but one month away from the mad flush of precursors but so many questions are still unanswered.
TIER 1. FRONTRUNNERS
What We Know: Argo is all locked up for Picture and Director having won applause from both critics and general audiences and I've always said that Oscar voter tastes are, roughly, a fusion of those two things; Silver Linings Playbook is a safe bet in the major categories but contemporary films always struggle with nomination counts since the craft branches largely ignore them; Though Les Misérables is as yet unseen it's certain to rack up a handful of nods however it goes -- worst case scenario consider that Nine (2009) won 4 nominations despite scathing reviews -- and two handfuls if it's as good as people are hoping.
What We Don't Know: Can Les Misérables manage two supporting actress nominations or will Anne Hathaway's likely coronation suck the oxygen out of the room for other players; Will Hugh Jackman be able to part the great sea of biographical performances in order to compete for Best Actor -- I'm guessing yes but by a hair; Can Argo manage two supporting actor nominations for Bryan Cranston and Alan Arkin? Arkin has the "fun" role but Cranston has undeniably become a major actor's actor over the past handful of years. Though double nods are common in Supporting Actress that hasn't happened in Supporting Actor since Bugsy (1991)
TIER 2. MAJOR PLAYERS?
What We Know: People love the performances in The Sessions (review) The Master and Amour (review); The Academy loves Denzel Washington (Flight) something fierce and they haven't had a way to really nominate him for Best Actor given his filmography since his last win; The Academy never gave Hitchcock an Oscar -- only an Irving Thalberg -- and the movie which focuses on his most famous film (Psycho) and even makes a point of pointing out the lack of thank yous from the industry!
What We Don't Know: Whether or not the various branches will vote for any of these things... I kid, I kid. It is always thus; Can Amour capitalize on a decade of critical worship of Michael Haneke to become a major player? Anything about Zero Dark Thirty really beyond Jessica Chastain being its lead actress and what the subject matter and the outcome is (true story -- already spoiler alerted by history!) It starts screening just after Thanksgiving.
TIER 3. DAVIDS TO THE GOLIATHS?
What We Already Know: This has been a truly exciting year at the movies... just look at that collage of films which could theoretically win multiple nominations! Even the films which met with disapproval in some corners (like Prometheus or Snow White and the Huntsman) have undeniably worthy tech elements. So much of this year's Oscar nominations seem dependent on strong FYC campaigns.
What We Don't Know: Can Anna Karenina surge to life upon release after a confusing response at festivals. It is astonishingly beautiful but will AMPAS warm to its bold experimentation?; Can Skyfall capitalize on this year's loud Bond-Mania for visual and sound prizes even though Oscar has been notoriously stingy with this franchise?; AMPAS has been loosening up when it comes to genre films lately but there are so many this year (The Avengers, The Hobbit, The Dark Knight Rises, Looper, Snow White and the Huntsman, Cloud Atlas) that vote splitting is likely... so which survive the brutal competition?
Care to answer the "we don't know" questions in the comments?
PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP ACTRESS | SUPP ACTOR | VISUAL | AURAL | SCREENPLAYS
ANIMATION | FOREIGN FILMS (I'm aware that the charts are malfunctioning in foreign films and will be attempting fixes this week)
Oscars (12)
Reader Comments (43)
You should be asking the question whether three Les Miz gals can get in because two are almost locks (They need to be seen). Seyfried should be in the top 5 with Barks and Hathaway. Crowe should also be in the top five if you know the role.
Not even a slight chance for a Moonrise Kingdom Best Picture nomination? That's sad.
Glad you put john hawkes back on top. Not overly impressed with Lincoln.....of course DDL is good....but that's about it. he needs to wait for #3. john hawkes stayed with me. glad you added sally in supporting actress - she was very very good. and i agree w where you have tommy lee jones. i've seen argo - i'm expecting Les Mis to be pretty spectacular and to take best picture / director. anne will win.....helen - #2 win is going overboard. and 3 or 3 for sally is unfathomable. cant wait to see silver lings playbook.
I actually agree with your predictions though I think Skyfall can make it in Best Song. :) Amen to Emmanuelle being second.
There is a reason les Miserables has been a best seller for almost 150 years and the musical has been a global sell out for more than 25 leaving audiences sobbing and cheering. The universal themes explored can be found in bits and pieces of all the films and roles likely to be nominated, but they can ALL be found in this story. It is a big "IF" as to whether or not it delivers on that promise, but "IF" that happens, everyone and everything else can just move out of the way. The others may be good and worthy of acknowledgment, but Les Miserables will be a classic to remember, watch, and re-watch for decades.
Eoin Daly -- I know Les Miz inside and out but disagree that Javert is an automatic top five Oscar role. I think in this case it's entirely dependent on how Crowe works in the role and whether or not he reenergizes his fanbase.
Stop trying to make Quartet happen. It's not going to happen. (JK, but I don't see it happening.)
I don't mean to put too much weight into the Golden Globes, but I feel like a lot of these "who's up and who's down" conversations will show by who gets placed in which category. There are a number of films that could go either way in my opinion. Between Hitchcock, Quartet, and The Sessions, I could see them as either as a comedy or a drama.
Any thoughts?
Because that Best Actress lineup is filled with actresses in odd projects (in terms of Academy voting at least), that Best Actress in a drama lineup could be weird.
I know you don't believe sequels or pseudo sequels automatically qualify for Adapted Screenplay but they do. This is 40 is eligible for Adapted not Original Screenplay.
Does anyone know how substantial Hal Holbrook's role is in Promised Land? Seems like he could be a major contender for a nomination and even a win (what with all that post-Into the Wild goodwill) if he and the movie are well-received. That is, IF the role's a sizable one.
Nathaniel, you said you were seeing 'Hitchcock' this weekend, didn't you? I assume you'll write a review soon, but give us a teaser please. Was it good? Oscar material? Hopkins/Mirren/ScarJo? Oh yeah, in case it's not obvious I'm illogically excited about this movie :)
I'm disappointed in your Keira Knightley prediction Nathaniel. How can she be in the final five ? Her film is divisive, her reviews are good but not great, in recent years the Academy has snubbed lead female performances in period pieces, Academy voters might compare her with Garbo, and then there's Maggie Smith, Naomi Watts or Marion Cotillard who arguably stand a better chance...
Is there any particular reason why you don't even mention LINCOLN in Best Production Design?
'Quartet' can happen! I'm glad that you put Pauline Collins in the top five. (She gets my pick as 'Best in Show' amongst the strong quartet of actors.) It might be difficult for 'Quartet' to break through, since it seems to have gotten lost at the festivals and since the Weinstein Co always drops the ball on one of their films (cough, cough, Vanessa Redgrave in 'Coriolanus'). People just need to see the film and realize that it's not lightweight. Just look at how much 'Hope Springs' surprised viewers.
-Oh, and Keira Knightley deserves a top five spot! Anna is the best work of her career.
I'm ready to fall in love with Les Mis, but some of these comments read like press releases.
I think Crowe will have an uphill battle getting nomm'd, can see Samantha Barks or maybe Seyfried (who's been around longer) getting in, a la Queen Latifah/Reilly in Chicago.
I really want this to happen for Anne.
eric c. what is JK referring to?
I think you're really underestimating Amy Adams. If Phoenix and Hoffman are in, then Adams should be up there too. And where's Adele for Best Original Song??
Really hoping Cotillard pulls it off, she's so deserving.
Sean -- yes, Les Miz is very partisan :)
Joe -- I've already said my piece about the Oscar's music branch and Bond songs (i.e. they don't much like 'em) ... it's totally possible but it's about as far from a sure thing given the Bond song statistics as I can think of. And yet everyone else seems to think it's a lock. Strange.
I don't particularly think "Skyfall" is a lock at all (and there's a good chance it will be disqualified), but given the critical and financial success of the film and the song, and factoring in Adele's massive popularity, I think it should at least be on the list of contenders.
Joe -- oh, on this we agree. I thought I'd added it. Fixed.
Marion is IN. It's an incredible performance, the best I've seen in a long time. I don't think it being a foreign language performance will effect her at all, she's Marion Cotillard, one of the biggest stars in Hollywood and star of The Dark Knight Rises, one of the biggest films of the year. Furthermore, despite being a winner, she's due another nomination (Penelope getting in over her for Nine was a travesty and I think she was also overlooked for Midnight In Paris).
I'm Team Marion!
I expect Moonrise Kingdom to get some kind of boost from early awards. And I'm not even an Anderson fan.
I'm hoping you're right about Keira Knightley and John Goodman.
Both actress categories are a bit weird now, so, apart from a few locks or near-locks, it seems like anything can happen, but AK will have to pick up some serious steam. I suspect Jessica Chastain will get in, though.
I'm happy to see John Goodman getting a bit of a career revival right now. He played the greatest dad ever on TV, and he made me smile in every scene he had in The Artist.
An unprecedented year for the Supporting categories?
There is a very strong chance that both these categories could end up with all nominees in each one being previous nominees! I believe this has NEVER happened in Oscar history (I haven't had the time to check only as far as mid-1970s).
If Goodman, Cranston and McConaughey do not make it, all five Best Supporting Actor nominees might be previous winners: Jones, Hoffman, DeNiro, Arkin, Russell and Walken... If the nominees are 5 out of these 6, it will be the case! And if one spot if taken by DiCaprio or Strathairn, then they will be all previous nominees.
If Nat's prediction about the Les Miserables ladies does not prosper and it's only Hathaway, plus Hunt, Fields, Collins, Smith, Adams or Dench, then the roster will be made up by all previous nominees. If you go further down the list, there's also Kidman, Bonham Carter and Benning!
Marcos: Actor could easily be all previous nominees, Actress has JLaw, Mirren, maybe Chastain, Knightlet, Cotillard... Nathaniel's annual "who won't be back a second time" poll could be between only Quvenzhane and Emanuelle Riva!
I dont get the buzz around Barks. Yes on stage the role may be a great one, but this is a untested actress. She's never been on film before, so while she may be able to sing, she will really need to be able to act also.
Also, I think people are being picky with saying that Knightley is getting "just good" reviews. There are a ton of reviews saying that this is career best performance. I think people just dont want to see it happen.
Isn't This is 40 adapted?
I feel like this year is definitely more ambiguous (in terms of potential nominees) than last year, which makes it so exciting. I mean, by this time last year (hell, probably even in September or October), we knew that Streep, Davis, and Williams were going to be nominated, and we knew that Glenn Close was pretty damn likely. Swinton was the surprise spoiler that made her way through virtually every precursor that was eventually edged out by another actress who many had predicted for a nomination at the beginning of the year.
Right now, I'd say that JLaw is pretty much the only one close to a "sure-thing" for best actress. I'm just not buying Quvenzhane Wallis at the moment, and her (and the film's) exclusion at SAG will do her no favors. I don't even see her getting a Golden Globe nomination, and certainly not a BAFTA. I think Cotillard is getting in, even though the odd snub by the EFA is strange. I think if Zero Dark Thirty delivers, Jessica Chastain will be a major threat, and plus there usually seems to be a previous year nominee present every Oscar telecast. Riva has a good shot, and I think she will be the unanimous critics' darling this season. I think Maggie Smith has a better shot in supporting for Marigold Hotel because there just doesn't seem to be any buzz for Quartet at the moment and it will likely be usurped by all the other late-December releases. I think it's generally dangerous to predict Knightley and Watts, considering that both actresses are divisive and are generally overlooked by Oscar for whatever reason (even if they give tremendous performances). Therefore, I think Helen Mirren is a good default nominee. They love her, will probably love the movie, and she's supposed to be aces in the role.
So, 1. Lawrence 2. Cotillard 3. Chastain 4. Riva 5. Mirren
aaron -- I tend to think Marion Cotillard is, like Kidman (so you don't think i'm just being biased), one of these actresses where her fans are always completely wild for her work... but it's important to remember that Oscar voters aren't really among these mega-fans. Yes, they've loved the actresses before but they hardly declare OSCAR-WORTHY as often as the fanbases.
everyone -- y'all are probably right on This is 40. I hate that trend/rule so much that I always forget about it (this is in no way an "adapted" screenplay since it's wholly original. It just happens to use a couple of the characters the author created with the last screenplay. But yes. I will switch it.
For my predictions:
ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper / Daniel Day-Lewis / Hugh Jackman / Joaquin Phoenix / Denzel Washington
Alt: John Hawkes
Day-Lewis, Jackman and Washington are in top three. Maybe Cooper is understimated at this stage. After Phoenix's strange behaviour, I believe Harvey will push Cooper as his primary horse and the film is receiving an excellent response with Audience Awards. For the last fifth spot, I would say Phoenix. After seeing "The Sessions", I don't have high hopes for Hawkes. Don't get me wrong, he's excellent, but the film is too vanilla and sometimes the character actors are snubbed in this category.
ACTRESS:
Jessica Chastain / Marion Cotillard / Jennifer Lawrence / Quvenzhané Wallis / Naomi Watts
Alt: Judi Dench, Helen Mirren or Emmanuelle Riva
With the clear exception of Lawrence, it's a free race. Maybe I would say Wallis is next in line. The response in UK for the film is excellent and maybe she's likely for a BAFTA nom. Also, Fox Searchlight send the first screeners. Third in line, I would say Chastain. Cotillard is a strange case for me, her performance is clear Oscar play, but Riva is competing with her. The best part of her, she's the only big contender who makes full campaign for the nom -Chastain is in Broadway, Lawrence, Knightley and Mirren are in films and Riva is too old to make trips- The EFA snub is still bizarre, but I think she has enough support -Especially for the Hollywood vote and British bloc-. The fifth spot is on the air. Mirren has the name, Riva the performance and even Knightley could pull off -But I doubt it, my reasons are next-, so I would say Watts. Yes, the film is manipulative and her role isn´t exactly "active", but I think we understimate "The Impossible":
-This is the first Lionsgate-Summit coallition's biggest player: Lionsgate -Halle Berry, Crash, Precious, Nicole Kidman- and Summit -The Hurt Locker, Demian Bichir- are excellent around the Oscar seasons. When they want something, they got it.
-The BO prospects: Right now is a sucess in Spain and the expectations in UK are excellent
-EL&IC effect: Even with a potential backlash, the film will have a great response with Oscar voters -They only need 5%-
-British bloc supporting Watts and McGregor
Maybe is a bit too young? Less than 30, but with an older contenders in the supporting category, they could make this change
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro / Leonardo DiCaprio / Philip Seymour Hoffman / Tommy Lee Jones / Ewan McGregor
Alt: Alan Arkin and Matthew McConaughey
With the new prospects for Django, I recover the trust in DiCaprio. For McGregor, I believe "The Impossible" will be a bigger player -GG and BAFTA will nominate it- and coattails nominations iin the supporting categories are common. Also, first time nominee
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Samantha Barks / Jennifer Ehle / Sally Field / Anne Hathaway / Maggie Smith
Alt: Helen Hunt and Pauline Collins
Maybe I'm wrong excluding Hunt for the top five. I would delight an Ehle nomination if her role in ZD30 is excellent as reports says. With the recent health news with Smith, her nom seems more likely. At least a bigger surprise, maybe Hathaway must prepare her speeches
Ugh. It's no fault of yours, of course, but the Supporting Actor top tier is so bloody boring. Beyond Jones and Hoffman, who were both very good in their respective histrionic ways, this lineup just kills me. I haven't seen Silver Linings, but I find it hard to believe that De Niro is transcendent (though I'm keeping an open mind!). As for the others, I thought Arkin was pretty much dreadful in Argo, along with the rest of that film's stateside cast, each of whom play one note throughout (best in show is easily Scoot McNairy as the reluctant evacuee). And John Goodman, bless him, has basically been a human laugh track this season, give or take his more sober moments in Trouble with the Curve. He totally contaminated Flight. It pains me that the two most deserving contenders, McConnauhgey and Dwight Henry, don't seem to have better traction. Argh. As is, this lineup looks like a handful of veteran bone throws. But such is Oscar politics.
I will say that it is always very nice to swing by this site and see the enduring Oscar enthusiasm among readers. The more exposure you have to the game/profession, the easier it its to become cynical, and TFE reminds me of the joy of awards season, however crazy it can make me. It's the site that made me love the Oscars. Just thought I'd chime in... :-)
Knightley's prospects: Maybe she’s receiving good news for her performance, but the reception of the film by the american critics is too mixed and this year is full of contenders -With Watts, Riva, Cotillard, Mirren, Dench and others-. Also, the literally adaptations are tricky for Oscar consideration:
1938: Greta Garbo didn’t make it for the original AK, even when the film received better reviews and Garbo -At her peak of fame- won the NYFCC.
1955: Vivien Leigh snubbed in AK even at her fame and recent divorce with Laurence Olivier
1991: Isabelle Huppert didn't make for Madame Bovary even when the film got excellent response in USA and an Oscar nomination for Costume
1993: Michelle Pfeiffer -At her peak of fame and respect- was snubbed for “The Age of Innocence”.
1994: Isabelle Adjani was snubbed for “Queen Margot” in one of the worst years for Oscar races for the best actress category
1996: Gwyneth Paltrow couldn’t make it for “Emma” even when the film received better reviews than AK, she has Harvey Weinstein and the film got Oscar nominations -Even won the Oscar for Original Score-
1996: Nicole Kidman, after her snub in "To Die For" didn't make it for "The Portrait of a Lady" -Maybe this is tricky, but the point remains-
2000: Gillian Anderson couldn’t make it even when she starred “House of Mirth”
And for this consideration, in the last 30 years we have only 5 actresses nominated for these types of roles:
1984: Vanessa Redgrave - The Bostonians
1994: Winona Ryder - Little Women
1995: Emma Thompson - Sense & Sensibility
1997: Helena Bonham Carter - The Wings of the Dove
2005: Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
With the exception of Redgrave, these actresses have with a qualification above of 80/100 -by the critics-, and two of them came in weaker years -Ryder and Knightley-. Even in some cases, failed to received an excellent response by AMPAS -Sense and sensibility and The Wings of the Dove-, Redgrave is the exception, but again, she’s Vanessa Redgrave starring a James Ivory production in a terrible year as 1984.
Right now, AK is having 65% in RT, 68% in Metacritic and 80 in BFCA -Three days ago it was in 83-. Not a good response when you considerate the hype and the source.
I finish with this statement: If Anna Karenina will have a 77 or less rating by BFCA and 74 or less in Metacritic by November, I will bet my dog that Knightley won't be nominated by the Oscar. I know, I sound too pretentious LOL... But the history and statistiques don't make any favours to Knightley and she's not a new Winslet / Streep nominated for almost every type of performance
I wouldn't say Tom Hooper is nearly locked for a Best Director nomination even if the movie seems assured a Best Picture nomination. There seems to be a (highly debatable) perception in the Academy that musicals direct themselves. Look at the last two musicals to strike it big with the Academy. Chicago won Best Picture but not Best Director. Moulin Rouge! was nominated for Best Picture but not Best Director. Depending on how huge Les Miserables becomes, I still think it's possible that the movie gets in for Picture but not Director, or perhaps that it wins Picture but not Director.
No Spielberg for Best Director? No way! It's his passion project and the film is getting raves. I'd say he'd be second for the win next to Affleck.
I think your general ambivalence toward Spielberg is causing you to WAY underestimate the film's sweep in tech categories. I think it'll grab the most nominations, probably 11 or 12... editing, art direction, costume design, cinematography, etc... it'll grab them all.
Your predicting ZERO acting nominations for a QT film?
Come on! That's just not reasonable. QT dialogue + great actors + QT direction generally equals great performances with a lot of buzz & (recently) good box office.
Most of these other actors competing for nominations won't have the excellent scenes & dialogue that Django Unchained's cast will have.
Nathaniel: what do you mean that Hugh Jackman will be the only non-bio role in the Best Actor contender. Aren't Washington and Phoenix also playing fictional roles? That only makes two bio roles in the list right now: Hawkes and DDL
When I saw that Gollum installation in the New Zealand airport, I had to laugh. Gollum remains such an iconic character though that I wonder whether Andy Serkis will get a supporting nomination for The Hobbit this year. I mean, they've had years to think about it now, it's not such a shocking idea anymore, and Gollum is an enduring part of movie culture.
My tentative supporting actor lineup would be: Tommy Lee Jones, Russell Crowe, Ewan McGregor, Andy Serkis, and Most Valuable Player from Zero Dark Thirty (remember how good the supporting actor roles were in The Hurt Locker?)
I saw "The Sessions" today & God Helen Hunt is so "insignificant" I can believe there's a buzz.. .
Stjeans, I found the whole movie insignificant-- it felt like it was never flushed-out. It's hard not to root for Mark, but at the same time I'll be kinda sad if it gets nominated for BP. (I feel like a terrible person for saying that.)
Right now, I'll predict: Les Mis, Silver Linings Playbook, Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, and Beasts of the Southern Wild. The Master and Flight on the wings. Not sure what to make of Hitchcock but for the moment I'm reminded of "My Week with Marilyn."
There are three films right now that seem to really need the critics to unite behind them to form a good BP campaign-- Amour, Beasts, and The Master. I'm afraid that's not going to happen, especially when many of the Oscar frontrunners are so well-regarded critically, and one or more will suffer for it.
Evan -- that's a scary but totally reasonable thought. You're probably right. I'm surely overestimating Amour. But I still think it's going to be a multiple nominee. At least 2 nominations.
BVR -- i meant he's got to survive in a group of contenders that includes three biographical roles two of which are surely already done deals.I didn't mean he's the only one. Just that his role has the least obvious "bait" but it's not like any of hte other actors could do it. (i'm assuming he'll be great in it and maybe he won't... but we'll wait to see)
My predictions right now :
Picture : Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, The Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, The Master, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained
Director : Steven Spielberg, Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper, Ang Lee, David O. Russell
Actress : Marion Cotillard, Emanuele Riva, Jennifer Lawrence, Helen Mirren, Jessica Chastain
Actor : Daniel Day-Lewis, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington, John Hawkes, Hugh Jackman
Supporting Actress : Anne Hathaway, Amy Adams, Sally Field, Helen Hunt, Maggie Simith
Supporting Actor : Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert De Niro, Tommy Lee Jones, Alan Arkin, Leonardo DiCaprio
Cotillard is not a lock but I think she will get in. One thing is sure, if voters see her movie she's definitely gonna make it, but are they gonna watch it? I believe enough academy voters will see it to secure her a nomination but the win is nearly impossible IMO. Since it's release, whatever if critics liked it or not, they all agree that her performance is great and they are unanimous. It got a lot of publicity since Cannes and everybody knows it's certainly the second foreign to watch this year after "Amour". People think it's tha "good-not-great" type of movie but a lot of critics loved it and some of them loved it even more than "Amour" and it won LFF, which academy voters won't see a big festival winner?