Thanks for reading all year, dear Oscar freaks. I originally published these predictions in my column at Towleroad but the write-ups are expanded here with more details since y'all are movie freaks and I love you for it. Here we go...
From silly rumors of a bear “raping” Leonardo DiCaprio, to the critical fervor for a fourth film in a Mad and previously non-prestigious action franchise, to obviously gathering but non-impactful support of our years long anti category fraud crusade, to the internet rage and ongoing controversy over #OscarsSoWhite this has been an eventful and often surprising awards season. Will Oscar night continue that trend or feel like an anticlimax? Whichever way it goes, it all comes to an end this Sunday night on ABC when the 88th Academy Awards unspool.
The following predictions can be used to inform your Oscar party or office Oscar pool but fair warning: even seasoned Oscar pundits like myself and other Gurus and Experts are confused this year about some categories. As early as last week, for example, I had planned to start this article with an obnoxiously cute bit about the surest prediction being that the producers would try desperately to pretend that Hollywood was very diverse on Oscar night. I was wrong, wrong, wrong. They went and made another anti-diversity blunder, axing performances of two of the Original Song nominees, the two that happen to be sung by a famous Asian soprano and a trans woman. Can we have a round of applause please for Anohni (better known as Antony Hegarty) who has published a must-read personal essay about the insulting behavior of the Academy in regards to her nomination for Best Original Song.
Sigh. It’s like The Academy can’t help themselves!?! They just dig themselves deeper every time. Yet we can’t help ourselves either and continue obsessing over that 13½ inch naked gold man. Let’s look at all 24 categories after the jump...
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight. The Producers Guild prize, the Screen Actors Guild Ensemble prize, and the Directors Guild prize are usually strong indicators of what will win the top Oscar category. Famously this year all three guilds honored different films: The Big Short, Spotlight, and The Revenant respectively. The Big Short arguably campaigned the hardest and taps into a very “now” issue with our country’s wealth disparity and gamed system getting a lot of attention in an election year. Spotlight is the classy Best Picture option that no one dislikes and that could (theoretically) help since Best Picture is the only category where the winner is determined by preferential ranking rather than a simple vote. But The Revenant has been sucking up all the cultural oxygen (I even heard a woman refer to her friend’s coat as “Revenant chic” two weeks back!) and just won the BAFTA across the Atlantic.
Will Win: The Revenant (Confidence level: 50%)
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road or Room. They’re both unique marvels with actual thematic heft. They'll look good down the road when people look back at this year.
Could Win: The Big Short or Spotlight... it all depends on the preferential ranking. How tight is it really. And voters who're voting for the other 5 films as their #1 where are their #2 and #3 votes going?
How to Cope with the Win: If you hate The Revenant, just pretend The New World just won all the Oscars since Iñárritu was obviously going for that sans depth plus revenge.
Further Reading: Best Picture Chart. Several Rankings therein
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Lenny Abrahamson (Room), Adam McKay (The Big Short), George Miller (Mad Max Fury Road), Alejandro G Iñárritu (The Revenant), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight). The critics have favored George Miller this year for elevating Mad Max Fury Road from mere chase movie / sequel to action masterpiece but critics don't vote for Oscars. The Academy membership is much grouchier about genre achievements and they’re also in love with a certain Mexican auteur right now who won three Oscars just last year for Birdman.
Will Win: Alejandro G Iñárritu. (Confidence level: 65%) He would not be the first director to win back-to-back Oscars (it’s happened twice before but not since the 1950s) but he would be the first director to helm back-to-back Best Picture winners if The Revenant takes the top category.
Should Win: George Miller (Mad Max Fury Road) …and by such a margin I may weep if he loses.
Could Win: Anyone whose movie wins Best Picture.
How to cope with the win: If you have any suggestions for how to deal with Iñárritu pulling a back to back like he's John F***ing Ford. Please let us know. We need it. I was going to try to pretend they were just giving him two Oscars for Birdman but then I remembered they already gave him 3 for that movie and 4 is really overdoing it!
Further Listening: on the new podcast we discuss the best previous work by Miller, Iñárritu, and McCarthy
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (The Martian), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), and Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl).
Will Win: This is Leo’s long awaited Oscar. (Confidence level: 100%) Goodbye to all those hilarious memes about Leo’s desperation to win. *sniffle* But for all the griping from fans about how long he’s waited, he’s only 41. Some perspective: Paul Newman, who is several times the actor that Leo is, had to wait until he was 62! If you haven’t yet played this hilarious video game you should. There’s even an “Act Harder” bonus round lampooning Leo’s familiar brow furrowing. Here’s a interesting essay on why he shouldn’t win.
Should Win: Michael Fassbender if you want complexity; Matt Damon if you want your effortless star charisma.
How to Cope with the Win: Pretend that Leo will start mixing it up with less heavy I'M A SERIOUS ACTOR performances and remember how fun he used to be to watch? Also pretend he won for your favorite performance of his, whatever that might be *cough Gilbert Grape*
Further Reading: "The Year of the Ham" plus Q&A about Leo, Eddie Redmayne interview
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Jennifer Lawrence (Joy), Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), and Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn). It’s the year’s highest quality acting category. Yay
Will Win: Brie Larson’s fierce but damaged mother in Room was locked up for half the movie. The Oscar has been locked up for what seems like half the year. (Confidence level: 100%)
Should Win: Blanchett has the trickiest role and gives the most stylized performance but every beat in Carol, the year’s greatest film no matter what Oscar says, is sheer perfection.
How to cope with the win: Be happy because she's awesome. Also picture her hand-writing all those thank you cards next week.
Further Listening: on the new podcast we discuss the best work by Brie, Cate, Charlotte, Jennifer, and Saoirse. 7th time for Cate. Charlotte Rampling Beauty
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), and Sylvester Stallone (Creed).
Will & Should Win: Sylvester Stallone (Confidence level: 60%)
Could Win: Mark Rylance felt like the frontrunner for a few months for his soft spoken spy. Lately there’s been some rather shapeless buzz that Ruffalo OR Bale could surprise for their rather showy performances in films with real Best Picture heat. But the safest bet is Stallone for reprising his classic role. (That’s how Paul Newman finally won his Oscar, too, not that their talent is remotely comparable)
How to cope with the win: Remember that this category is often useless (particularly because the nominations year after year are impossible to justify) and exists almost solely to provide career wins to old men. And, as such, they're only doing their duty!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Rooney Mara (Carol), Rachel McAdams (Spotlight), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) and Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs).
Will Win: Alicia Vikander. (Confidence level: 80%) Even if no one truly loves The Danish Girl, she was 2015’s breakout “It Girl” with several films in theaters and continually strong reviews. (Our interviewer)
Should Win: Kate Winslet’s dodgy accent aside, she works wonders as Fassbender’s frumpy foil in Steve Jobs. She’s actually the only good option here really since Rooney and Alicia are both leading ladies in their films and shouldn’t have been allowed in this category
Could Win: Kate Winslet
How to cope with the Win: Pretend it's for her brilliantly sly and micro-nuanced work as "Ava" in Ex-Machina... because it kind of is. It's a "great year" win.
Further Reading: Alicia Vikander interview, Rachel McAdams is Flawless, 7th Time for Kate, Jennifer Jason Leigh beauty
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight and Straight Outta Compton
Will Win: Spotlight. (Confidence level: 90%) This is the newspaper drama’s one sure Oscar though it could win more.
Should & Could Win: Inside Out
Further Reading: Interviews with Josh Singer on Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Brooklyn, Carol, The Big Short, The Martian, and Room
Will Win: The Big Short. Its Most Likely Oscar. (Confidence level: 85%)
Should Win: Carol. (Note to classic movie lovers: Carol‘s Sunset Blvd shout out is very purposeful)
Could Win: It’s a long shot but Room has loud and devoted fans. And it's also a tremendous achievement and it'd be nice to see a female novelist win for adapting her own work.
How to Cope with the Win: Remember that the system is broken and the attention drawn to that is only a good thing. Stop voting for politicans who are against regulating corporate America!
Further Reading: Screenplay Records (that might be broken), Which are most Quotable?. How the female characters are introduced
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max Fury Road, The Revenant, and Sicario
Will Win: The Revenant will make Emmanuel “Chivo” Lubezki (Gravity, Birdman) the first person to win three consecutive Oscars in decades. (Confidence level: 90%). Check out his instagram for beautiful portraits. The all natural light gimmick used on The Revenant isn’t new — Chivo did the same thing to we'd argue even greater results in The New World (2005) but this is where the smart money is since it feels new to people.
Should Win: Carol. Impeccably beautiful and conceptually smart, too.
Could Win: Sicario… if voters realize that Roger Deakins is now on his 13th nomination. He’s a legend in his field but he’s never won. I recently rewatched this film and Chris was right about it. It's just impeccably crafted. The Cinematography was even more expressive on second viewing.
How to Cope with the Win: Remember that Chivo is a miracle worker even though nobody has ever deserved three consecutive Oscars.
Further Reading: Interviews with Carol and The Revenant. Plus Mad Max Fury Road's "Best Shot"
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Will Win: The Big Short. (Confidence level: 30%) Sometimes they vote for “Most” rather than “Best” and this film is filled with showy editorial flourishes.
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. Most pundits are predicting it to win this contest but I fear the worst.
Could Win: The Revenant …but only if it’s a sweeper and takes home several Oscars.
How to cope if Mad Max loses: I'm open to suggestions. Help meeeeeeeeeee
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, and The Revenant. This is a very difficult category to guess this year and not just because all the nominees are very well designed. If they vote “Most” they’ll go with Danish Girl or Cinderella. If enough voters are angry that Carol missed in Best Picture (and surely it has a lot of fans since 6 nominations is now the record holder for most noms without Best Picture in the expanded BP era) they could rally here. If they’re just checking all their craft category boxes for Mad Max or The Revenant either of them could pull it off. In short, this is basically your only true five-way race of the night.
Will & Should Win: Sandy Powell, Carol. (Confidence level: 20%) I’m risking wishful thinking on this one. Sandy Powell already has three Oscars but she’s legit amazing every time out.
Could Win: Any of them, really. But if Cinderella wins, Sandy Powell will repeat history. The last time she was competing against herself she won for a royal theatrical movie (Shakespeare in Love then, Cinderella now) while her losing entry was a beautiful Todd Haynes film (Velvet Goldmine then, Carol now)
How to cope with the win: We already won since this year had so many great costumes and at least four of these are statue worthy.
Further Reading: Beauty Break: Nominated Costumes. Plus: Interviews on the costumes in Carol, Cinderella and The Revenant
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and The Revenant. It’s another tough call but these are all handsome films.
Will & Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. (Confidence level: 75%) They have to give it something. And this category feels Most Likely To even if it doesn’t collect multiple Oscars as many expect. That Citadel is the year’s most memorable set.
Could Win: The Revenant. If Jack Fisk wins for his work on those old forts and boats and amazing location choices, keep your eye out for Mrs Fisk, Sissy Spacek, in reaction shots.
How to cope if Mad Max loses: To quote Carol's Abby "I can't help you with that."
Further Reading: Production Design Analysis. Plus interviews for The Revenant and Bridge of Spies
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
Nominees: Mad Max Fury Road, The Revenant, and The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Will & Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. (Confidence level: 70%)
Could Win: The Revenant. Usually when movie stars like Leonardo DiCaprio look this bedraggled they chalk it up to A-C-T-I-N-G. Remember when Monster (2003) wasn't even nominated for Best Makeup. Charlize willed herself to look like that!
Further Reading: Makeup and Hair analysis
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. An unusual group this year since there are two films (Ex Machina and The Revenant) where the visual effects play supporting roles and there’s far less CGI than usual since Mad Max and Star Wars both famously used old school practical effects when they could.
Will Win: Mad Max Fury Road (Confidence level: 50%)
Should Win: Ex Machina
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens (it’s probably a very tight race between this and Mad Max)
Further Reading: Star Wars interview
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Will Win: The Hateful Eight. (Confidence level: 40%). Ennio Morricone is a legend and the film opens with a long overture of his score so even if they don’t finish that hateful movie (Tarantino overindulging his sadism for three hours) they’ve heard the score.
Should Win: Sicario… a truly haunting score from a tough meticulously crafted movie.
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. John Williams, the most famous film composer ever, hasn’t won an Oscar since Schindler’s List (1993). He’s mostly retired and he’s 84 years old so they might feel like it’s now or never for his sixth Oscar.
Further Reading: Carol interview with Carter Burwell, Jóhann Jóhannsson (Sicario) picks 10 scary scores
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “Earned it” (Fifty Shades of Gray), “Manta Ray” (Facing Extinction), “Til It Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground), “Writings on the Wall” (Spectre), “Simple Song. No 3″ (Youth). A dubious record setting group this year. It’s the first time all 5 song nominees are the sole nomination for their film.
Will Win: “Til It Happens to You” (Confidence level: 60%) Lady Gaga and Diane Warren have been campaigning hard for their song, even performing it (see clip above) at the Producers Guild Awards
Should Win: “Simple Song No. 3″ the entire movie (Youth) builds to this operatic performance and it doesn’t disappoint.
Could Win: “Writings on the Wall”. Supposedly no one likes this Sam Smith penned James Bond theme. But if no one likes it, how did it get Oscar nominated?
How to cope if a song you hate wins: Insert fingers in ears. Imagine your favorite Best Original Song winner playing instead.
Further Reading: Best Song Trivia.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. If you don’t know the difference between the two sound categories don’t worry, most Oscar voters don’t either. It’s basically this: “mixing” refers to the balance and combinations of the overall soundscape (dialogue, score, sound effects) whereas “editing” refers to the creation of those same sound elements.
Will Win: The Revenant (Confidence level: 40%)
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The Star Wars Saga has historically done well in sound categories with frequent nominations and 3 Oscars for sound (albeit from the first two films only)
BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario,and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
Will Win: The Revenant (Confidence level: 40%)
Should Win: Sicario ? This drug war drama’s sound is sinister and spectacular. It’s utterly confusing that it missed in Sound Mixing since it trumps almost all of that field.
Could Win: Mad Max or Star Wars
How to cope with The Revenant's sound wins: Imagine Mad Max's guitar flame thrower guy shredding away until Leo whimpers like a girl and even Judy the bear begs for mercy.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep, When Marnie was There. This category is kind of silly (you only need 16 releases to have a 5 wide field. That’s nearly a 33% chance of getting nominated if you even exist!) but they tend to choose well mixing strong foreign entries with the best of American and British animation.
Will & Should Win: Inside Out (Confidence level: 100%)
How to cope with the Win: Let your own "Joy" drive the controls for awhile and hope we get more family movies this beautifully judged with such worthy messages
Further Reading: Boy and the World review, When Marnie Was There Review, Anomalisa Review
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: Amy, Cartel Land, Look of Silence, What Happened Miss Simone?, and Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom
Will Win: Amy has swept documentary prizes this year. (Confidence level: 85%)
Should Win: I’ll have to abstain as I haven’t seen them all but people I trust think Look of Silence is a masterpiece
Could Win: Cartel Land is well loved within the Academy according to my anecdotal conversations and Netflix has been pushing hard for their own nominees including Winter of Fire. So a surprise could happen if Oscar starts feeling self-conscious about their recent run of music-themed winners (see: 20 Feet From Stardom and Searching for Sugar Man).
How to cope with Amy's sweep: Just put on "Back to Black" and forget about statues and carpets. It'll be easy to do. What an album.
Further Reading: Tim looked at previous work by these directors. Glenn watched all the finalists.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees: Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia), A War (Denmark), Mustang (France), Son of Saul (Hungary), and Theeb (Jordan)
Will Win: Son of Saul has been the frontrunner since Cannes. (Confidence level: 80%) It’s formally impressive and Oscar loves WW II Holocaust pictures. Hungary hasn’t won this category since Mephisto (1981) which was also, you guessed it, a WW II picture.
Should Win: I’m currently obsessed with Embrace of the Serpent, a mesmerizing black and white trip along the Amazon to find a hallucinogenic plant. It’s so visual and deserves to be seen in theaters and it just opened so, go see it!
Could Win: Mustang, a great movie about Turkish sisters imprisoned in their home by conservative relatives and being married off, is the most traditionally moving of the nominees here. France hasn’t won this category since the Catherine Deneuve epic Indochine (1992).
How to cope with the win: Go see all of them - good batch!
Further Reading: All our Oscar related Foreign Film interviews this year! We interviewed the directors of all five nominated films.
Stutterer
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Nominees: Ave Maria, Day One, Shok, Stutterer, and Everything Will Be Okay.
Will Win: Stutterer (Confidence level: 35%)
Could Win: Shok or Ave Maria
Further Reading: Capsule Reviews
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees: Body Team 12, Chau -Beyond the Lines, Last Day of Freedom, Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah.
Will Win: A Girl in the River. (Confidence level: 25%)
Could Win: Claude Lanzman: Spectres of Shoah
Further Reading: Capsule Reviews
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Nominees: Bear Story, Prologue, Sanjay’s Super Team, We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, and World of Tomorrow
Will Win: Bear Story. (Confidence level: 25%) I mean...who knows?
Should Win: World of Tomorrow. Don Hertzfeld is a one of a kind talent and this film is available on Netflix so go watch it!
Could Win: Sanjay’s Super Team. Pixar films are frequently nominated in this category but they've only won 3 times in their now long history. Russia's absorbing funny and even moving We Can't Live Without Cosmos and Hertzfeldt's genius time travel absurdity feel more likely IF (and if it's a big if) voters actually watched all five of these films before voting.
Further Reading: Capsule Reviews
TOTAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE BEST PICTURES
The Revenant wins 6 Oscars
Mad Max: Fury Road wins 3 Oscars
The Big Short wins 2 Oscars
Spotlight and Room win 1 Oscar
Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies, The Martian go home empty handed
THAT'S ALL
Wish me luck. Unless you'd like all of my predictions to lose. May the evening be full of pleasant surprises!
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Lots of big plans for 2016 including more interactivity. The first predictions for 2016's movies will be up on April 1st as is our usual intended tradition. The final Film Bitch Award nominations and medals will be passed out today and tomorrow.