In the past couple of days I've screened The Revenant, Joy, and Creed. Since the first two are still under embargo we're not allowed to speak of them yet. I will say these non spoilers: The Revenant continues the tradition of Inaritu's love of miserable arguably suicidal men, and Joy continues in the tradition of David O. Russell sandbox like playground for actors eager to have fun with their new toy parts (Isabella Rosselinni & Virginia Madsen & Edgar Ramirez brought me joy inside Joy).
But...embargo! Moving on.
As movie buffs well know, the original Rocky was a smash hit when it premiered in December 39 years ago, becoming the biggest box office hit of 1976, making a star of Sly Stallone, charting a #1 single ("Gonna Fly Now"), and earning an incredible 10 Oscar nominations. It eventually won Picture, Director, and Editing on the big night. And against unreal competition too: Network, Taxi Driver, Bound for Glory, and All The President's Men were the other Best Picture options. The Rocky series spawned a few popular sequels but eventually exhausted its welcome as film franchises always do. Creed smartly plays like both a straight sequel (VII) and a spinoff or rebirth with Rocky Balboa passing the franchise torch to Apollo Creed's son Adonis (Michael B Jordan) who was born after his father's death.
So let's talk Creed and Oscar and the ways it could well factor into the Oscar race after the jump...
Hollywood loves franchises because they're easy to market and safe(r) risk. As a result they tend to feel like the safest of movies and less than thrilling except in the mechanical setpiece sense. The Oscars, moreso than Hollywood, have always struggled with the battle between art & commerce at the movies. They way they usually approach that struggle in the realm of pure commerce (i.e. franchises) is to ignore it or let it dissipate over time with fewer and fewer nominations for a film series if they loved the first one. Unless of course a sequel is just too good to be ignored (see Skyfall or The Dark Knight... complete anomalies in Oscar's response to the James Bond and Batman series respectively).
The pure commerce feel of sequels is why it's so especially rewarding when a franchise film is so good that you don't have to feel ashamed that you love it or easily manipulated into spending yet more money on something you've already bought in slightly different formation in previous years. Now, before we go any further let's not get crazy: in the realm of sequels that outdo themselves and all conceivable expectations, Creed is no Mad Max Fury Road. What is? It's not genius filmmaking and it doesn't tower over its predecessors like George Miller's fourth go at his apocalyptic series. But Creed is a fun involving watch and probably more Oscar accessible.
First and foremost it plays on or at least with nostalgia for an Oscar champ of the past and is successful in the same kind of way: it's easy triumph-of-the-spirit rousing but also committed to being character based. It's a very well crafted traditional crowd pleaser. And it's probably worth noting, though Oscar pundits rarely note this, that AMPAS is arguably more fond of boxing than any other sport. Previous boxing films that were well received by Oscar voters include:
- The Champ (4 noms /2 wins for 1931)
- Somebody Up There Likes Me (3 noms / 2 wins for 1956)
- Rocky (10 noms / 3 wins for 1976)
- Raging Bull (8 noms / 2 wins for 1980)
- Rocky III (1 nomination for 1982)
- Ali (2 nominations for 2001)
- Million Dollar Baby (7 noms / 4 wins for 2004)
- Cinderella Man (3 nominations for 2005)
- The Fighter (7 noms / 2 wins for 2010)
(Of these films only Ali and Cinderella Man were seen as underperformers on nomination morning. And that's not even including Oscar nominees that involve boxing in the plot or characterizations that aren't about boxing like From Here to Eternity, The Quiet Man, and The Hurricane)
The branches that are the most likely to bite, statistically speaking, are actors and editors. But I'm sensing an opening in the top categories (and an absence of populist giants outside of The Martian and Inside Out). Plus Ryan Coogler and Michael B Jordan may well have momentum given the respect for Fruitvale (not nominated but it was in the discussion) and the ongoing pressures for the Academy to diversify. For the moment at least I'm thinking it will happen in at least three and possibly more categories.
UPDATED OSCAR CHARTS
Charts in which Creed moved way up: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Film Editing
All Charts Updated Yesterday: Actress, Suppporting Actress, Screenplay, Visual Categories, Aural Categories, Foreign Film, Animation & Documentary, and the Index Page o' Predictions