UPDATED TO REFLECT ACTUAL OSCAR NOMINATION RESULTS
This post will self destruct in 5...4...3...
With Oscar nominations hitting us first thing in the morning, we'll be frantically updating the Oscar charts to reflect the official history book decisions from our beloved/hated AMPAS and you can look back at this madness and point and laugh. The title of the post is even preemptively self-mocking because the punditry business is tough tough tough in this volatile year. Without further ado here are the predictions we made at the last minute and we'll update later when we know how wrong we were.
PICTURE
Predictions (9): (locks) Spotlight, The Martian, The Revenant, The Big Short, (probably safe) Mad Max Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, (iffy) Carol, Straight Outta Compton, Room
Alternates (3): Inside Out, Sicario, Brooklyn
Results: I scored 7/8 here missing Brooklyn where I had Carol... though curiously Carol did far better in the nomination tallies. Straight Outta Compton was probably just outside with Inside Out and Sicario since it managed a screenplay nod.
DIRECTOR
Predictions: Scott (The Martian), Inarittu (Revenant), Miller (Mad Max Fury Road), McCarthy (Spotlight), McKay (Big Short)
Alternates: Haynes (Carol), Villeneuve (Sicario), Abrahamson (Room)
Results: 4/5 I assumed Ridley Scott was the strongest lock for direction -- as I think most people did but he was the one shut out. Lenny Abrahamson took his place reminding us again that the DGA nods almost always feature one man who's going to be replaced when Oscar chimes in.
why am I so confident Charlotte Rampling will be nominated despite disinterest from precursors? The performance, darlings, It's transcendent.
ACTRESS
Predictions: Larson (Room), Ronan (Brooklyn), Blanchett (Carol), Rampling (45 Years), Vikander (Danish Girl)
Alternates: Mara (Carol), Lawrence (Joy), Tomlin (Grandma)
The acting categories are messy messy messy this year, mostly due to Category Fraud. While I've given up the ghost that they'll correct the category fraud thrice over with Rooney Mara and the two Vikanders -- perhaps they'll promote Vikander's Danish Girl not from concerns about movie stars stealing honors from actual supporting actors but because she's competing against herself. My guess is they'll keep Mara subordinate to Blanchett 'because everyone knows gay relationships can't be equal,' he said facetiously, 'so someone has to be the top I mean the lead!'
Results: 4/5 in the end Category Fraud was not overturned and the expected suspects prevailed. Jennifer Lawrence has now surpassed Jennifer Jones for the record of "fastest actor to four nominations" since she's only 25 years old.
Romantic dramas have two leads. It's the nature of love. - Nathaniel... and Cheryl Strayed.SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predictions: Mara (Carol), Winslet (Steve Jobs), Mirren (Trumbo), Leigh (Hateful Eight), Fonda (Youth)
Alternates: Vikander (Danish Girl), Vikander (Ex Machina), McAdams (Hateful Eight)
I can't quite buy that Alicia Vikander's sexy robot is going to excite enough actors despite the decent guild showings of Ex Machina. Why? Well they almost never go for sci-fi performances no matter how brilliant -- so I opted for a weird mix of things in the two categories here which means I'll be wrong all over the place. But this is okay since as long as I got my Blanchett/Larson/Ronan/Rampling foursome in lead actress I'll convince myself to be fine with whatever horrors await in supporting.
I'm choosing to attribute the excitement around Jennifer Jason Leigh to a (mostly) web-only phenomenonon - consider that the web thinks JJL's voice work in Anomalisa will help her. Which is insanity. The Academy will not care about who is doing the voice work in a tiny animated film few of them have seen yet. The Academy and the Web are always getting confused for each other (mostly by the web) but they are wildly different beasts and JJL has never been an easy get for a nomination as her past critical triumphs have shown. I'm predicting her but just barely. Same with Jane Fonda... which might also be foolish given that Youth didn't really take but she *is* a legend and has been newly active in Hollywood lately in both film and television.
But of course I'm rooting for Kristen Stewart to surprise. Which... well, she won't have trouble with #1 votes on the ballots which she's on. But will there be enough of them?
Results: 3/5 In the end Category Fraud Will Go On... and continue to erode the respect for hard working character actors in Hollywood. The Academy totally accepted Mara & Vikander's cheating campaigns since they lead their films and were surely paid leading lady salaries to do so but two supporting actresses were not allowed space in their own category to include the movie stars. I thought SAG's vote for Mirren was telling and the Globe's vote for Fonda also might play into nominations but I was wrong on both counts.
If Leo wins as expected he OWES the world a romantic comedy. Enough suffering and dead wives.
ACTOR
Predictions: DiCaprio (Revenant), Damon (Martian), Cranston (Trumbo), Redmayne (Danish Girl), Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Alternates: Carell (Big Short), Tremblay (Room), Dano (Love and Mercy)
I fear the Carell. I really do. I didn't understand his last nomination and I won't understand this one if it comes to pass.
Results: 5/5 Despite a seeming lack of passion for any of the Best Actor candidates, the same guys popped up all the time in precursors making this one easy to guess. How no one thought to push Michael B Jordan into the conversation was quite insane.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predictions: Rylance (Bridge), Stallone (Creed), Bale (Big Short), Ruffalo (Spotlight), Tremblay (Room)
Alternates: Elba (Beasts), Del Toro (Sicario), Shannon (99 Homes), Dano (Love and Mercy) Hardy (The Revenant)
Previously discussed via Jacob Tremblay post. You'll notice that I have Dano cancelling himself out, which is sad because it's such a good performance, easily his greatest thus far in a young career.
Results: 4/5 I REALLY underestimated Tom Hardy which is silly of me since I thought to myself before predictions: Well Leo often has coatttails for supporting actor and who doesn't love Tom Hardy? Plus he's better than Leo in the movie. Still it's odd that Tremblay missed. Perhaps he was caught between categories with voters since he was clearly the lead of Room. Not that that stopped voters from accepting fraud among actresses.
my no guts no glory pic in screenplay is Ex MachinaORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predictions: Spotlight, Inside Out, Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Hateful Eight
Alternates: Trainwreck, Sicario, Son of Saul
If Inside Out misses here we'll know that the mass creation of separate categories for animated films at the various guilds has seriously ghettoized them out of the larger races. Which will be sad.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Steve Jobs, The Big Short, Room, The Martian, Anomalisa
Alternates: Carol, Brooklyn, The Revenant
Preparing for a Carol snub though that will be just damn silly given what Nagy did. If Emma Donogue is passed over for Room we're going to have serious issues with the writers branch given that it will be the second consecutive super well reviewed adaptaiton job (see also Gone Girl) from a female novelist adapting her own work that will be ignored. That does NOT send a good message either of taste or diversity
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predictions: The Revenant, Mad Max, Sicario, Bridge of Spies, Carol
Alternates: Hateful Eight, The Martian, Brooklyn
Opting for the ASC nominees in full. but I fear Hateful Eight as the default nominee via Oscar favorite Robert Richardson
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Martian, Cinderella, The Force Awakens, Room
Alternates: Crimson Peak, The Revenant, Mad Max
You'll notice i don't have Carol in the top 8 which means the world has truly gone insane. End times, my friends, end times.
"Two nominations for Sandy Powell? Really?" Well, it has happened before Cinderella.
COSTUME DESIGN
Predictions: Danish Girl, Carol, Cinderella, Brooklyn, Trumbo
Alternates: Crimson Peak, The Revenant, The Martian
The fifth place in this category feels very up for grabs... some people say Mad Max Fury Road but I don't think the branch will go that far out on a limb though it is cool costume work. But it could be anything in the fifth spot but I'm going with Trumbo because the guilds like it and because Daniel Orlandi is way past due for a nomination
FILM EDITING
Predictions: The Martian, Big Short, Mad Max, Revenant, Spotlight
Alternates: Sicario, Bridge of Spies, The Force Awakens
But i'll forever be confused at how Creed didnt win traction.
VISUAL FX
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Mad Max, The Martian, Jurassic World, Age of Ultron
Alternates: Ex Machina, Revenant, Ant-Man
Probably dumb to predict Age of Ultron which so many people felt the backlash for but its main competitors are "supporting" visual effects and Oscar almost never goes for that.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Predictions: Mad Max, 100 Year Old Man, Mr Holmes
Alternates: Black Mass, Revenant
How are there STILL not 5 nominees for this category when every single live action film uses hair & makeup teams?
ORIGINAL SCORE
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Hateful Eight, Danish Girl, Bridge of Spies, Carol
Alternates: Sicario, Inside Out, Steve Jobs
With so many default players in the mix (John Williams & Alexandre Desplat, holla) and a legend (Morricone) it'll be interesting to see if they get creative with the other 2 spots or stick with 2 beauties that people are expecting from them.
ORIGINAL SONG
Predictions: Furious 7, Youth, The Hunting Ground, Pitch Perfect 2, Ricki and the Flash
Alternates: 50 Shades of Grey, Southpaw, I'll See You In My Dreams
SOUND MIXING
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Mad Max, Revenant, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton
Alternates: Sicario, Martian, Hateful Eight
SOUND EDITING
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Mad Max, Revenant, Martian, Sicario
Alternates: Hateful Eight, Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina
ANIMATED FEATURE
Predictions: Inside Out, Anomalisa, Boy and the World (if 4 then...), Shaun of the Sheep (if 5 then...), Good Dinosaur
Alternates: Peanuts Movie, When Marnie Was there
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predictions: Amy, Cartel Land, Look of Silence, Meru, Going Clear
Alternates: Best of Enemies, Winters On Fire, The Hunting Ground
ANIMATED SHORT
Predictions: Sanjay's Super Team, World of Tomorrow, If I Was God..., Bear Story, We Cant' Live Without Cosmos
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Predictions: Ave Maria, Bad Hunter, Shok, Stutterere, Everything Will Be Okay
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predictions: Body Team 12, Minerita, A Girl in the River, My Enemy My Brother, Claude Lanzmann