Final Oscar Predictions. What We Got Wrong.... (And Right...?)
Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:10PM 
UPDATED TO REFLECT ACTUAL OSCAR NOMINATION RESULTS
This post will self destruct in 5...4...3...
With Oscar nominations hitting us first thing in the morning, we'll be frantically updating the Oscar charts to reflect the official history book decisions from our beloved/hated AMPAS and you can look back at this madness and point and laugh. The title of the post is even preemptively self-mocking because the punditry business is tough tough tough in this volatile year. Without further ado here are the predictions we made at the last minute and we'll update later when we know how wrong we were.
PICTURE
Predictions (9): (locks) Spotlight, The Martian, The Revenant, The Big Short, (probably safe) Mad Max Fury Road, Bridge of Spies, (iffy) Carol, Straight Outta Compton, Room
Alternates (3): Inside Out, Sicario, Brooklyn
Results: I scored 7/8 here missing Brooklyn where I had Carol... though curiously Carol did far better in the nomination tallies. Straight Outta Compton was probably just outside with Inside Out and Sicario since it managed a screenplay nod.
DIRECTOR
Predictions: Scott (The Martian), Inarittu (Revenant), Miller (Mad Max Fury Road), McCarthy (Spotlight), McKay (Big Short)
Alternates: Haynes (Carol), Villeneuve (Sicario), Abrahamson (Room)
Results: 4/5 I assumed Ridley Scott was the strongest lock for direction -- as I think most people did but he was the one shut out. Lenny Abrahamson took his place reminding us again that the DGA nods almost always feature one man who's going to be replaced when Oscar chimes in.
why am I so confident Charlotte Rampling will be nominated despite disinterest from precursors? The performance, darlings, It's transcendent.
ACTRESS
Predictions: Larson (Room), Ronan (Brooklyn), Blanchett (Carol), Rampling (45 Years), Vikander (Danish Girl)
Alternates: Mara (Carol), Lawrence (Joy), Tomlin (Grandma)
The acting categories are messy messy messy this year, mostly due to Category Fraud. While I've given up the ghost that they'll correct the category fraud thrice over with Rooney Mara and the two Vikanders -- perhaps they'll promote Vikander's Danish Girl not from concerns about movie stars stealing honors from actual supporting actors but because she's competing against herself. My guess is they'll keep Mara subordinate to Blanchett 'because everyone knows gay relationships can't be equal,' he said facetiously, 'so someone has to be the top I mean the lead!'
Results: 4/5 in the end Category Fraud was not overturned and the expected suspects prevailed. Jennifer Lawrence has now surpassed Jennifer Jones for the record of "fastest actor to four nominations" since she's only 25 years old.
Romantic dramas have two leads. It's the nature of love. - Nathaniel... and Cheryl Strayed.SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predictions: Mara (Carol), Winslet (Steve Jobs), Mirren (Trumbo), Leigh (Hateful Eight), Fonda (Youth)
Alternates: Vikander (Danish Girl), Vikander (Ex Machina), McAdams (Hateful Eight)
I can't quite buy that Alicia Vikander's sexy robot is going to excite enough actors despite the decent guild showings of Ex Machina. Why? Well they almost never go for sci-fi performances no matter how brilliant -- so I opted for a weird mix of things in the two categories here which means I'll be wrong all over the place. But this is okay since as long as I got my Blanchett/Larson/Ronan/Rampling foursome in lead actress I'll convince myself to be fine with whatever horrors await in supporting.
I'm choosing to attribute the excitement around Jennifer Jason Leigh to a (mostly) web-only phenomenonon - consider that the web thinks JJL's voice work in Anomalisa will help her. Which is insanity. The Academy will not care about who is doing the voice work in a tiny animated film few of them have seen yet. The Academy and the Web are always getting confused for each other (mostly by the web) but they are wildly different beasts and JJL has never been an easy get for a nomination as her past critical triumphs have shown. I'm predicting her but just barely. Same with Jane Fonda... which might also be foolish given that Youth didn't really take but she *is* a legend and has been newly active in Hollywood lately in both film and television.
But of course I'm rooting for Kristen Stewart to surprise. Which... well, she won't have trouble with #1 votes on the ballots which she's on. But will there be enough of them?
Results: 3/5 In the end Category Fraud Will Go On... and continue to erode the respect for hard working character actors in Hollywood. The Academy totally accepted Mara & Vikander's cheating campaigns since they lead their films and were surely paid leading lady salaries to do so but two supporting actresses were not allowed space in their own category to include the movie stars. I thought SAG's vote for Mirren was telling and the Globe's vote for Fonda also might play into nominations but I was wrong on both counts.
If Leo wins as expected he OWES the world a romantic comedy. Enough suffering and dead wives.
ACTOR
Predictions: DiCaprio (Revenant), Damon (Martian), Cranston (Trumbo), Redmayne (Danish Girl), Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Alternates: Carell (Big Short), Tremblay (Room), Dano (Love and Mercy)
I fear the Carell. I really do. I didn't understand his last nomination and I won't understand this one if it comes to pass.
Results: 5/5 Despite a seeming lack of passion for any of the Best Actor candidates, the same guys popped up all the time in precursors making this one easy to guess. How no one thought to push Michael B Jordan into the conversation was quite insane.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predictions: Rylance (Bridge), Stallone (Creed), Bale (Big Short), Ruffalo (Spotlight), Tremblay (Room)
Alternates: Elba (Beasts), Del Toro (Sicario), Shannon (99 Homes), Dano (Love and Mercy) Hardy (The Revenant)
Previously discussed via Jacob Tremblay post. You'll notice that I have Dano cancelling himself out, which is sad because it's such a good performance, easily his greatest thus far in a young career.
Results: 4/5 I REALLY underestimated Tom Hardy which is silly of me since I thought to myself before predictions: Well Leo often has coatttails for supporting actor and who doesn't love Tom Hardy? Plus he's better than Leo in the movie. Still it's odd that Tremblay missed. Perhaps he was caught between categories with voters since he was clearly the lead of Room. Not that that stopped voters from accepting fraud among actresses.
my no guts no glory pic in screenplay is Ex MachinaORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predictions: Spotlight, Inside Out, Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Hateful Eight
Alternates: Trainwreck, Sicario, Son of Saul
If Inside Out misses here we'll know that the mass creation of separate categories for animated films at the various guilds has seriously ghettoized them out of the larger races. Which will be sad.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Steve Jobs, The Big Short, Room, The Martian, Anomalisa
Alternates: Carol, Brooklyn, The Revenant
Preparing for a Carol snub though that will be just damn silly given what Nagy did. If Emma Donogue is passed over for Room we're going to have serious issues with the writers branch given that it will be the second consecutive super well reviewed adaptaiton job (see also Gone Girl) from a female novelist adapting her own work that will be ignored. That does NOT send a good message either of taste or diversity
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predictions: The Revenant, Mad Max, Sicario, Bridge of Spies, Carol
Alternates: Hateful Eight, The Martian, Brooklyn
Opting for the ASC nominees in full. but I fear Hateful Eight as the default nominee via Oscar favorite Robert Richardson
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Martian, Cinderella, The Force Awakens, Room
Alternates: Crimson Peak, The Revenant, Mad Max
You'll notice i don't have Carol in the top 8 which means the world has truly gone insane. End times, my friends, end times.
"Two nominations for Sandy Powell? Really?" Well, it has happened before Cinderella.
COSTUME DESIGN
Predictions: Danish Girl, Carol, Cinderella, Brooklyn, Trumbo
Alternates: Crimson Peak, The Revenant, The Martian
The fifth place in this category feels very up for grabs... some people say Mad Max Fury Road but I don't think the branch will go that far out on a limb though it is cool costume work. But it could be anything in the fifth spot but I'm going with Trumbo because the guilds like it and because Daniel Orlandi is way past due for a nomination
FILM EDITING
Predictions: The Martian, Big Short, Mad Max, Revenant, Spotlight
Alternates: Sicario, Bridge of Spies, The Force Awakens
But i'll forever be confused at how Creed didnt win traction.
VISUAL FX
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Mad Max, The Martian, Jurassic World, Age of Ultron
Alternates: Ex Machina, Revenant, Ant-Man
Probably dumb to predict Age of Ultron which so many people felt the backlash for but its main competitors are "supporting" visual effects and Oscar almost never goes for that.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Predictions: Mad Max, 100 Year Old Man, Mr Holmes
Alternates: Black Mass, Revenant
How are there STILL not 5 nominees for this category when every single live action film uses hair & makeup teams?
ORIGINAL SCORE
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Hateful Eight, Danish Girl, Bridge of Spies, Carol
Alternates: Sicario, Inside Out, Steve Jobs
With so many default players in the mix (John Williams & Alexandre Desplat, holla) and a legend (Morricone) it'll be interesting to see if they get creative with the other 2 spots or stick with 2 beauties that people are expecting from them.
ORIGINAL SONG
Predictions: Furious 7, Youth, The Hunting Ground, Pitch Perfect 2, Ricki and the Flash
Alternates: 50 Shades of Grey, Southpaw, I'll See You In My Dreams
SOUND MIXING
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Mad Max, Revenant, Bridge of Spies, Straight Outta Compton
Alternates: Sicario, Martian, Hateful Eight
SOUND EDITING
Predictions: The Force Awakens, Mad Max, Revenant, Martian, Sicario
Alternates: Hateful Eight, Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina
ANIMATED FEATURE
Predictions: Inside Out, Anomalisa, Boy and the World (if 4 then...), Shaun of the Sheep (if 5 then...), Good Dinosaur
Alternates: Peanuts Movie, When Marnie Was there
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predictions: Amy, Cartel Land, Look of Silence, Meru, Going Clear
Alternates: Best of Enemies, Winters On Fire, The Hunting Ground
ANIMATED SHORT
Predictions: Sanjay's Super Team, World of Tomorrow, If I Was God..., Bear Story, We Cant' Live Without Cosmos
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Predictions: Ave Maria, Bad Hunter, Shok, Stutterere, Everything Will Be Okay
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Predictions: Body Team 12, Minerita, A Girl in the River, My Enemy My Brother, Claude Lanzmann
Oscars (15), Punditry
Reader Comments (53)
I think the exact same thing will happen with Lead Actress. Vikander will be promoted, and Mara will score a supporting nom.
I'm not sure Mirren can secure a nom for Trumbo - but that might be wishful thinking on my part. I think career goodwill for Jason Leigh will score her the nom.
I really hope Haynes gets in for Carol. I predicted him on my list, but I feel shaky in that honestly.
Can't wait for tomorrow morning!
I would have thought that Vikander's category fraud would be easier to swallow than Mara's for voters, but we'll see.
You always do such a great job - I love and appreciate the hard work you put in. :) Happy Oscar Day!
My dilemma is am I okay with Ranpling missing out if it corrects category fraud? The answer is no - giving me all sorts of conflicted feelings but I love Rampling too much to digress on that one.
I hope for Lawrence's sake she doesn't get nominated, I fear the backlash.
The question is then, who on earth is going to actually win supporting actress? Your predictions, while accurate, are the least inspired and exciting line up that there could be... Who would win?
anyone who read this the second it was posted. sorry. it went up with a mistake. i am predicting JJL. just barely. ;)
If Mara is nominated for supporting actress she's the front runner especially if Vikander jumps to lead. If not I would say Winslet or Fonda have a good shot at it.
What about foreign language picture?
With Rampling and Haynes possibly missing out its gonna be a very tense morning tomorrow.
I'm insane for this but...I'm predicting a double nomination for Vikander.
When was the last time somebody has been nominated in both categories? If that happens with Vikander - I dunno, she's fine , but I don't think she really deserves that much recognition . Over Rampling??
Adelutza- I believe if memory serves the last time someone scored a double nomination it was Carol's own Cate Blanchett in 2007 for Elizabeth: The Golden Age and I'm Not There.
adelutza, last double nominees
Cate Blanchett: Elizabeth 2 and I'm Not There (2007)
Jamie Foxx: Ray and Collateral (2004)
And thank you for your hard work - is it weird that even in weird years like this, I still get more excited about the film bitch nominations? Sacrilege I know, but I prefer your taste and ways of justifying your picks.
The biggest reason I think the category fraud will go unpunished is something Nathaniel alluded to earlier: it sucked the oxygen out of the room. So contenders that could have potentially gotten traction didn't. And the counting rules favour support.
For as long as I can remember, Oscar nominations morning has left me feeling either disappointed at best or furious at worst.
I'm not very optimistic about tomorrow.
Just remember what William Goldman always used to say about Hollywood, "No one knows Anything". Relax, you have done as well as anyone could have when it comes to predicting the most unpredictable year.
Supporting Actress is a confusing mess, since Laura Dern made it in last year with a very small performance (time wise), I think Jane Fonda will make it in for the Oscars.
I think Rachel McAdams and JJL have about an equal shot at the remaining slot. I will go with McAdams just because I think "Spotlight" is a less divisive film.
See you tomorrow, and thanks for all the work.
I have a feeling Vikander won't be nominated at all, though I loved her work in EX MACHINA and hope she gets in supporting actress for that. For actress, I say: Blanchett, Larsen, Rampling, Ronan, and Tomlin.
"I hope for Lawrence's sake she doesn't get nominated, I fear the backlash."
But that backlash would only be virtual. The offline world would be perfectly happy with a J-Law nomination.
"What about foreign language picture?"
Son of Saul, Son of Saul, Son of Saul, Son of Saul, Mustang.
I also think Rampling will get in, but I am suddenly thinking it will be Cate Blanchett (not Jennifer Lawrence) who gets bumped down to 6th place. I also think there's a good chance that Bridge of Spies misses out on Best Picture -- I don't see it getting many #1 ballots.
So sad I'm probably not going to hear Tomlin's name called tomorrow morning.
Nat: I'm still estimating a Poehler shaped surprise could be in store. Most years in Lead Actress have 2-3 performances where you can easily see why more than just older (40+) people are very into them. I'm only seeing one case in a Larson (okay, she qualifies), Ronan (hmm?), Blanchett (hmm?), Rampling (no one really knows people like The Mercers unless they ARE people like The Mercers. I'd see older Academy actors (50+) seeing enough of themselves in it to pass #1 votes her way, but that's about it) and Vikander (20s period piece? I see the appeal for very old actors (60+), but the 20-35 set would probably feel a little too alienated by the time period AND uncomfortable about the production's questionable elements) line-up where young voter appeal is easy to spot. If it's not Poehler, it's Tomlin (a kind of old person that younger voters might actually know) or (sigh) Lawrence, not Vikander.
I have no idea why all of us are still predicting Charlotte Rampling. Is it because Cotillard managed a nomination last year? Rampling is a film legend, but Cotillard is a young, former Oscar winner coming off a high-profile snub (Rust and Bone). We're going to look really silly when Jennifer Lawrence snags her 4th Oscar nomination instead. But, alas, I will go down with the ship as well.
"I fear the Carell."--I'm in the minority but I really, REALLY loved his performance in The Big Short, and I was totally on board with his nomination for Foxcatcher last year--such an understated, lonely, but deeply felt performance for me. I think Carell is 10x better than Cranston or Damon, IMO. I think if anyone is snubbed in best actor it's Damon. He strangely missed SAG and makes me feel like The Martian will be more successful in the crafts and tech branches rather than with actors.
Also, I think McAdams gets that supporting actress nomination over Helen Mirren. Surely some actor from Spotlight will receive an Oscar nomination, and it might just be her, strangely.
Good call Kaa, I was thinking it was Jamie Foxx in 04 when he won for Ray and was also nominated for supporting for Collateral which is arguably the worst category fraud ever .
Volvagia, if Amy couldn't win an Emmy for her consistently magnificent work on SNL and Parks and Recreation, an Oscar nomination for her voice work this year ain't gonna happen.
Oscar morning is the best part of award season. Yet it is inevitable the slate of nominees will be lackluster and disappointing.
No guts, no glory: A surprise nomination for Star Wars, either in Best pic or supporting actor.
I don't know what I'm going to do with myself if/when The Big Short gets a Best Picture nomination and Carol doesn't.... I can't remember an Oscar morning that I've had a worse feeling about. I'm predicting far too many unworthy nominations.
My only admittedly delusional prediction is that Elizabeth Banks gets a nomination tomorrow morning amidst all of the confusion/lack of passion in the Supporting Actress category.
The anticipation is actually giving me anxiety. I just know that something that I thought was an absolute lock will miss out and I'll be upset beyond belief.
I'm already getting mad lol.
Romantic dramas have two leads. It's the nature of love. - Nathaniel... and Cheryl Strayed.
My favourite caption of the year :)
I think J.Law will squeak in
Well, if worst comes to worst, at least Juliane Moore is an Oscar winner :-)
Awesome breakdown as usual Nate! I'm going to add the song from Ricki and the Flash too. Anyone who has seen this movie knows Meryl did an amazing job singing the original tune, and it def belongs in the final five!
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Carol
8. Straight Outta Compton
if 9-10
Brooklyn, Star Wars: Force Awakens
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Adam McKay, The Big Short
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Ridley Scott, The Martian
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Steve Carell, The Big Short
My big 500 bet at Goldderby is Carell manages to squeeze in over Damon. I think he is being watched by all the voters on screeners, and has a performance that's much more passion-worthy then Matt's passable but not challenging role. I probably am wrong, but when you're one of the few right it's worth the bragging rights.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Booklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
This is probably the lineup I kept coming back to. I think Vikander will gnar enough support to place her correctly in lead, thus bumping off Jennifer Lawrence. The 'veteran Brit' slot still remains a mystery, but my delusional brain refuses to drop Rampling even though Maggie Smith seems more and more likely. Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman got SAG nominations but nothing else, and Lily Tomlin seems to have disappeared.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Taking Idris down might prove disastrous but I can't figure out where to put Hardy and I see him riding the wave of Leo's film to a nod ala Jonah Hill in 2013. This is the hardest category to call tomorrow and there are many guys waiting in the wings including Tremblay, Dano, Shannon and Keaton.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Vikander getting double nominations seemed probable but the fact that she went 0-2 at the GGs means the support isn't as strong as we thought. I think she's better positioned to score a nod for Danish Girl in lead, then as a robot in Ex Machina. But I would love to be wrong, as the final two slots in this category are underwhelming. Look out for surprises from the likes of Stewart or Allen.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Big Short
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. The Revenant
Look for movies that have the most support to show up here, including Leo's film that might be limited on dialogue but we all know a screenplay is more then that. This is the hottest movie right now and I am betting voters go gaga for it. Carol seems tipsy but Far from Heaven earned a slot in 2002 here, despite no best director or picture mention. I don't see three female driven movies making it at once, but Room and Brooklyn certainly are competitive.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Spotlight
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Straight Outta Compton
5. Ex Machina
Many pundits have Inside Out pegged here, but I'm sadly betting it's time has peaked and that we'll get all live-action, including the creative writers behind the scifi premise in Ex Machina (it's only nomination, often what happens with the writing categories; think Nightcrawler last year).
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Revenant
2. Carol
3. Sicario
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Bridge of Spies
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Danish Girl
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Brooklyn
4. The Danish Girl
5. Crimson Peak
BEST MAKEUP
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The 100 Year-Old Man
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Big Short
3. Sicario
4. The Revenant
5. The Martian
Spotlight would seem to be a wise move, but it's not a very noticeable aesthetic in the movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Danish Girl
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Carol
BEST SONG
1. Furious 7
2. Spectre
3. Youth
4. The Hunting Ground
5. Ricki and the Flash
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Jurassic World
5. The Walk
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Straight Outta Compton
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Inside Out
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Inside Out
2. The Good Dinosaur
3. Anomalisa
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. Minions
On the last slot, never bet against a movie that made THAT much money.
Since the Best Picture category is anywhere from 5-10 films, it's certainly made predicting it more difficult. But also more interesting. I'm guessing we'll have a second consecutive year with eight nominees. My five locks are The Big Short, Mad Max, The Martian, The Revenant and Spotlight. My 6-7-8 iffy movies are Bridge of Spies, Carol and Room, in that order. And I'll say Sicario and Straight Outta Compton just miss out at spots 9 and 10.
For Best Director, I picked the DGA nominees except Adam McKay is out and Todd Haynes is in. Since 2015 has been so unique already, I think Haynes finally gets his first nomination in this category.
BEST PICTURE
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Martian
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Carol
8. Straight Outta Compton
if 9-10
Brooklyn, Star Wars: Force Awakens
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Adam McKay, The Big Short
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
3. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
5. Ridley Scott, The Martian
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Steve Carell, The Big Short
My big 500 bet at Goldderby is Carell manages to squeeze in over Damon. I think he is being watched by all the voters on screeners, and has a performance that's much more passion-worthy then Matt's passable but not challenging role. I probably am wrong, but when you're one of the few right it's worth the bragging rights.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Booklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
5. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
This is probably the lineup I kept coming back to. I think Vikander will gnar enough support to place her correctly in lead, thus bumping off Jennifer Lawrence. The 'veteran Brit' slot still remains a mystery, but my delusional brain refuses to drop Rampling even though Maggie Smith seems more and more likely. Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman got SAG nominations but nothing else, and Lily Tomlin seems to have disappeared.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
2. Sylvester Stallone, Creed
3. Christian Bale, The Big Short
4. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Taking Idris down might prove disastrous but I can't figure out where to put Hardy and I see him riding the wave of Leo's film to a nod ala Jonah Hill in 2013. This is the hardest category to call tomorrow and there are many guys waiting in the wings including Tremblay, Dano, Shannon and Keaton.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Vikander getting double nominations seemed probable but the fact that she went 0-2 at the GGs means the support isn't as strong as we thought. I think she's better positioned to score a nod for Danish Girl in lead, then as a robot in Ex Machina. But I would love to be wrong, as the final two slots in this category are underwhelming. Look out for surprises from the likes of Stewart or Allen.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Big Short
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. The Revenant
Look for movies that have the most support to show up here, including Leo's film that might be limited on dialogue but we all know a screenplay is more then that. This is the hottest movie right now and I am betting voters go gaga for it. Carol seems tipsy but Far from Heaven earned a slot in 2002 here, despite no best director or picture mention. I don't see three female driven movies making it at once, but Room and Brooklyn certainly are competitive.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Spotlight
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Straight Outta Compton
5. Ex Machina
Many pundits have Inside Out pegged here, but I'm sadly betting it's time has peaked and that we'll get all live-action, including the creative writers behind the scifi premise in Ex Machina (it's only nomination, often what happens with the writing categories; think Nightcrawler last year).
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Revenant
2. Carol
3. Sicario
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Bridge of Spies
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Danish Girl
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Carol
2. Cinderella
3. Brooklyn
4. The Danish Girl
5. Crimson Peak
BEST MAKEUP
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The 100 Year-Old Man
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Big Short
3. Sicario
4. The Revenant
5. The Martian
Spotlight would seem to be a wise move, but it's not a very noticeable aesthetic in the movie.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Danish Girl
3. Bridge of Spies
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Carol
BEST SONG
1. Furious 7
2. Spectre
3. Youth
4. The Hunting Ground
5. Ricki and the Flash
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Jurassic World
5. The Walk
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Straight Outta Compton
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Inside Out
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Inside Out
2. The Good Dinosaur
3. Anomalisa
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. Minions
On the last slot, never bet against a movie that made THAT much money.
PS- And Yes, lol that was me- Dorothy Tillman. Just having fun with my favorite Oscar predictor lol.
"Vikander getting double nominations seemed probable but the fact that she went 0-2 at the GGs means the support isn't as strong as we thought."
JasonMovieGuy, I know you know that the GGs were announced after voting closed and anyway HFPA favor has no correlation to AMPAS or Guild favor, except after the fact. Her GG shutout might affect her chances to win, but not to place.
I don't think I've ever been this scared about something since JAWS. Seriously, the Oscar nominations this year can go either amazingly or disastrously.
Miracles I'm hoping for?
- Major love for "Sicario," but especially director and score.
- Rampling AND Courtenay get love.
- "Carol" lands the big ones, but especially director and screenplay.
I'll trust your Rampling prediction just because you correctly predicted Linney in 2007 when nobody else did and she didn't have any support and I'll never forget that.
My Predictions: (this year is TOUGH to pin down!)
1. A shut out for The Danish Girl
2. Promotion of Mara to lead
3. Ex Machina in Supporting Actress
4. Carrell in Lead
5. a low accuracy score on my predictions ;)
Picture: (9)
The Revenant
The Big Short
Carol
Mad Max Fury Road
Spotlight
The Martian
Bridge of Spies
Room
Brooklyn
Director:
George Miller
Adam Mckay
A.G. Innaritu
Todd Haynes
Ridley Scott
Actress:
Brie Larson
Saoirse Ronan
Cate Blanchett
Charlotte Rampling
Rooney Mara
Supporting Actress:
Kate Winslet
JJ Leigh
Rachel McAdams
Helen Mirren
Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
Actor:
Steve Carrell (the Foxcatcher nom wasn't widely expected either)
Matt Damon
Leonardo DiCaprio
Bryan Cranston
Jacob Tremblay (odd feeling we may have a Whale Rider replay)
Supporting Actor: (not enough push behind any single Spotlight guy to break through)
Mark Rylance
Sylvester Stallone
Christian Bale
Michael Shannon
Tom Hardy
There will be some doozy shockers tomorrow morning.
I still believe Star Wars will snag a Best Pic Nom. Remember CEOs and senior execs of the major studios still have some sway and they can also nominate themselves. $$$$$ sure makes them happy.
And Straight Outta Compton might be the Selma this year ie. 2 noms - Best Pic and probably Best Sound Mixing.
Since they expanded the Best Pic to between 5 and 10 - there always seems to be one Best Pi nominee that ends up getting just one other nomination.
I just really really want JJL to make it.
Thanks Nathaniel. Particular thanks because I don;t know enough abotu the shorts, and so i just stole your predictions for thos e atgeories. :-)
My interesing predictions:
1. Vikander gets shut out entirely.
2. This year's Cotillard (coming back after everyone forgot her) will be Carey Mulligan in Best Sctress
3. Sad to say this one, but McCarthy misses out on a Director nod (which may propel SPOTLIGHT back into favourite status, if there is an ARGO-like backlash). Abrahamson takes his place.
4. SON OF SAUL also gets in for Screenplay
(sorry, clicked on "Create Post" before both editing it and putting this last one in....)
5. SICARIO gets in for Best Picture, with only two other nominations (Cinematography and Score)
I'm praying HARD for Haynes, Rampling and Dano to get in
My 2-cents:
Best Actress
Larson
Ronan
Blanchett
Vikander (Danish Girl)
Rampling (Tomlin or Mara might pull an upset here)
Best Actor:
DiCaprio
Fassbender
Damon
Cranston
Redmayne (Carrell might pull an upset here)
Best Supp Actress:
Mara
Winslet
JJL
Vikander (Ex-Machina)
Mirren (or Fonda, althot I hope to see K-Stew)
Best Supp Actor:
Stallone
Rylance
Bale
Elba
Dano (Keaton & Ruffalo might X each other out)
Best Director:
Scott
Miller
Innaritus
McCarthy
Haynes (fingers XXX!!!)
Best Pic:
Spotlight
The Revenant
Max Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Big Short
Carol
Room
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Also..
Ex Machina:
Best Picture (if we get 10)
Best Director
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Production Design
Volvagia you are a terrible pundit. If a voice preformance ever gets nominated it will be highly acclaimed all season ala ScarJo in Her. Stick to long winded comments about comic books. (Often semi off topic and would be at home on your own blog. You should link us to it sometime)
Holt - READING IS FUNDAMENTAL...lmao.
No but seriously Amy Poehler has absolutely no chance at being nominated for best actress and I have no idea where anyone would get that from. If a VOICE performance was going to be nominated, especially in a LEAD category, this movie would have to be a lock in Best Pic, probably Director too. And other categories. It would have to be a hugely loved success.
Not saying that Inside Out isn't a loved success, but it's certainly not on the juggernaut level it would need to be on to score that.
Also, Amy Poehler's role just isn't that kind of role...she does a solid job, but it's not like ScarJo in Her, or Ellen Degeneres in Finding Nemo.
Does any one know the link to wath the nominatios? What time it will be?
I glooged!! Every thing is fine. I am anxious
Personal Not Guts No Glory predictions:
No AMY in doc.
99 HOMES for original screenplay.
Carell in best actor.
No THE MARTIAN in editing.
I see the 100-Year-Old-Man Who Climbed Out The Window And Disappeared is in the reminder list, BUT according to rule 3.3 it is ineligible due to the film being released in Scandinavia prior to January 1, 2014.
Hope everyone gets what they want.
Thanks, Nathaniel, for all your hard work getting us to this point.
And yes, two leads in a romantic drama. Whatever happens with Carol's nominations, that is a truth.
It's Christmas ....err I mean Oscar nomination morning. My whacky prediction : Vikander misses out in both categories and Mara gets nominated in lead