The Film Experience

Having just taken a trip back to 1984 for the Smackdown and memory sufficiently jogged about how dense the acting branch can sometimes be (the discernment skills vary so much annually it can feel like invasion of the AMPAS body snatchers in some calender years) I'm finding myself in the odd position of defending my more extreme hunches from my more cynical side.

Huppert is amazing... and (more importantly) Huppert-esque in ELLEBEST ACTRESS
Whenever you make a call here suggesting that so & so in some non-Oscary film actually has a shot at an acting nomination, people are prone to scoff. But each year's Oscar races have so many intangibles in the acting categories that it's best to keep an open mind. The four acting categories are arguably the categories that are least beholden to the actual movies since a famous actor doesn't need a strong picture to generate buzz nor do they (in some cases) even need for people to actually like their movie they're in or, in fact, see it. And then you have the vaguely opposite case where a particular movie, whether or not people actually warm to it as a whole, can remind the world how fabulous a particular actor or actress always has been...

This is all a long way of saying that I firmly believe that Sonia Braga (for Aquarius if people see the film) or Isabelle Huppert (for Elle, whether or not they like the film if a career tribute storm gathers) are distinct possibilities. They've both moved up a couple notches on the chart.

On the other hand both of those theoretical nominations would take a lot of campaigning work and Oscar might have more than enough favorites from their default actresses. The heat this week is with Emma Stone who has vaulted to the top (but can she stay there?) since La La Land has been so well received in its premiere, they like lead actresses in musicals, and she's the right age (Oscar loves crowning starlets just before they hit their 30s rather than waiting to see how solid their filmography becomes or how much staying power they have (It's the opposite with the men, not that you needed reminding - Editor)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This category continues to defy any attempt at pinning it down. Simply put, it's too early and not enough of the films have been seen. The only calls I feel confident about at this point are Naomie Harris in Moonlight (I know someone who's seen the movie and they were absolutely floored by her) and Kristen Stewart in Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk because it's the right moment in her career --with two years of people noticing how much they underestimated her due to her YA franchise -- and she's in a key role in a film that they will most definitely be interested in.

Beyond Stewart & Harris, though, who the hell knows? How well the movies themselves fare could make a lot of difference as it often does in supporting categories. I initially thought Rachel Weisz was a slam dunk as a grieving mother (Oscar Bait Alert!) in The Light Between Oceans but having seen the movie, it's exactly the performance you'd expect... zero surprises. Perhaps Weisz needs a comedy to shake her up? Vikander & Fassbender's romantic chemistry with tragic undertow is the heart and soul of this movie, not Weisz's catalyst grief however skilled she is with teary despair. She still could win attention because it's exactly the type of role that is taken seriously but now I'm doubtful. Disclaimer: I am fully aware that it's unwise to let personal feelings determine Oscar predictions but it comes down to this: the performance didn't excite me and I'm actually a fan of the movie so theoretically I'm the right audience to be excited for it.

How many acting nominations can BILLY LYNN'S LONG HALFTIME WALK get... or will it be viewed as a technical achievement mostly?

BEST ACTOR & BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Those charts have been updated, too! The male half of the acting categories looks even foggier in the crystal ball. Will any of the supporting players from Fences rise up? For fun this update I'm trying out a very rare "two supporting actors nominated from same film" scenario - for some reason that only been happening in the female supporting category for the last 25 years. What's Mark Strong's role like in Miss Sloane? What to do with all these young actors buzzing or winning great reviews when Oscar has historically ignored men under 30? So many questions... no answers only speculation.