As a special Thanksgiving gift to all of you, we've updated all the Oscar charts.
The Favourite In theaters tomorrow! DO NOT MISS IT.
BEST PICTURE
The box office this weekend and so many openings and/or guild screenings this week (Roma and The Favourite both in limited release, Green Book going wide, Vice and Mary Poppins and Mary Queen of Scots screenings) etcetera will likely disrupt this chart, as will the impending NYFCC and NBR decisions, but here's what we're thinking right now...
BEST DIRECTOR
I'm trying on a Ryan Coogler nomination to see how it feels. Still undecided. Though I think Black Panther is a lock for Best Picture (don't know why everyone is so worried) the corporate nature of massive franchises might significantly deter the Director's branch. We'll see. But I had to replace Damien Chazelle (who I do still think has a good shot at Director) since I was putting First Man just barely on the outside of the Best Picture list. I don't think First Man is in terrible trouble but it's in some trouble.
Reviews for the picture weren't "Oscariffic" but biopic mimicry and the huge box office might push Rami Malek into the nominee pool
BEST ACTOR
Since Oscar voters and the media both can never get enough of biopic mimicry I've been forced to include both Rami Malek and Christian Bale in the chart. (sigh). I probably won't live to see the end of biopic tyranny over "awards" but it would be my fondest dream if the acting branch started recognizing original creations that felt like whole humans (so much more inspiring!) instead.
BEST ACTRESS
Early mainstream reactions to Widows were not what we were expecting so out goes Viola Davis and in goes Emily Blunt instead back where we had her for the first half of the year even though many of you made fun of our Mary Poppins Returns predictions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This category is, oddly, the first to totally firm up. Sam Elliott, Richard E Grant, Mahershala Ali, and Adam Driver all seem to have cemented their place (at least with pundits and general mood/feeling), so unless the Globes, SAG, NBR, and the critics prizes significantly ignore them and rally elsewhere you've already got four sure things with only one spot in play.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I regret to drop Elizabeth Debicki from my predictions since she's so great in Widows but I fear the worst now about the Oscar viability of the picture. In her place goes Rachel Weisz for The Favourite.
BEST ADAPTED & ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYS
I'll admit straightaway that I don't feel confident about my predictions in these categories. A lot could still change.
First Man won't be the nomination leader we were expecting but it still has a great shot in various categories
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY & PRODUCTION DESIGN
No changes to these predictions. These all seem so unbeatable in these categories which is why I'm probably wrong, haha. I would LOVE to see the day when the Harry Potter franchise quits its strangehold on Production Design though. Five nominations for one franchise is enough already! Give someone else a shot.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Though I haven't seen the picture yet I'm uncomfortable with the notion of Alexandra Byrne competing for Mary Queen of Scots since she already won for costuming this same exact story in Elizabeth: The Golden Age... but I think she will (sigh). At any rate we're crossing our fingers for Sandy Powell to nab another double nomination.
BEST FILM EDITING & BEST VISUAL EFFECTS & BEST MAKEUP
These could all be terribly wrong but they look right-ish, don'cha think?
Max Richter's score for "Mary Queen of Scots" is winning praise
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Mary Queen of Scots on the rise. But this category can and often does surprise. We'll see.
BEST SOUND MIXING & SOUND EDITING
Prepared to be horribly wrong here. I don't know why I have such different nominations predicted in both since 5/5 is more common than 2/5... I guess we're always hoping that the sound branch will make use of being granted two categories (we don't understand how the Academy allows that when so many other branches have to combine their skills for one prize -- like Makeup & Hair or Production Design and Set Decoration or Visual Effects which has a trillion different kinds of jobs within it)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Prepared to be horribly wrong here but whatever happens we're hoping the musical performances on Oscar night remain (given their horrifying need to have 3 hours only). We think it's silly that A Star is Born isn't trying to get two nominations so we've given the double nom spot to Mary Poppins Returns.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Our first attempt at predictions now that we have the eligiblity list. We're probably too heavy on the "blockbuster" (for documentaries... it's all relative). What do YOU think will happen here?
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Is this an Incredibles 2 vs Isle of Dogs battle, or is the conclusion already foregone?
Shoplifters in theaters tomorrow. DO NOT MISS IT.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The executive committee is going to have a real challenge on their hands deciding which films to save (after the nominating committees vote) since there are so many enormously acclaimed titles in the mix this year. The big question for Oscar watchers is whether there's room for an Asian film this year. Oscar is horribly averse to nominating Asian films in this category but it's hard to argue with the reviews and brilliance of Shoplifters (Japan) and Burning (South Korea). And given how many ballots will inevitably go for Roma, a lot of strange things could happen if small passions dominate elsewhere.