by Nathaniel R
Sharing a predictions article I wrote for Towleroad yesterday just after having posted our final predictions in that penultimate podcast discussion of the season. It's highly likely that I've contradicted myself a few times. And I'm already regretting some of those "final" predictions. A confusing year it's been. CHAOS REIGNS! So here are the final predictions, posted in order of how the prizes were handed out last year. If I'm already second guessing myself there are notes in red font. Category titles will take you to the corresponding chart where you have one last day to vote on your favourites. Ready? Here we go...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Mahershala Ali has cleaned up all season for his leading role in Green Book but is he really all that convincing as a gay man? We say no, though your mileage may vary. Plus he won just two years ago for a better performance (Moonlight) so why is this happening? Why?!
Should Win: Richard E Grant wipes the floor with the Supporting Actor competition with this fully developed alcoholic streetwise character. “Jack Hock, big cock” is his introduction and he never stops being hilarious, touching, and unpredictable throughout a great queer film Can You Ever Forgive Me? Don't miss our interview with him.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will Win: People love Christian Bale’s chameleonic weight gains and losses so his transformation into Dick Cheney should do the trick. Though with makeup effects this good — they made his neck larger and you’d never know he wasn’t balding — one wonders why Bale puts himself through so much harmful yo-yoing in his physique for these parts he takes.
Should Win: The hard-to-describe Swedish movie Border (make sure you see it) which has some of the best makeup effects you’ll ever see… and which you won’t be able to unsee, fair warning.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win/Should Win: A total nail-biter. It’s either going to be Sandy Powell’s incredible work on the palace tragicomedy The Favourite, mixing period silhouettes with ultra modern textiles and techniques and an amazingly rangy color palette (considering the heavy use of blacks and whites) or Ruth E Carter’s futuristic creative work on Black Panther imagining a technologically advanced hidden African society. We’re rooting for Black Panther primarily because Carter has never won despite incredible work and Powell (who we like to think of as Tilda Swinton in costume designer drag) already has three Oscars, famously starting her third winning speech 9 years ago with a flippant “I already have two of these.”
I've predicted Black Panther but I'm starting to lean to The Favourite taking this, both because the costumes are so perfect and because it fits Oscars default mode even when the costumes aren't this worthy. The Favourite feels like the night's true wild card. I've predictd just one win but there are believable scenarios where it surprises and takes up to five trophies.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: We suspect this is a tight race between two blockbuster docs, the mountain climbing Free Solo and the biography RBG. Given RBG’s iconic nature and the current political resistance climate we think RBG has the edge to win.
Should Win: Abstain as we haven’t yet seen all five. But opinions seem to vary wildly about which one is the best.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Going out on a limb here to say that this is where First Man fans rally for that underappreciated historical drama about the moon landing. But this could just as easily go to the any of the other nominees: Roma, Black Panther, A Quiet Place, or Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: First Man
Is this wishful thinking? I've heard convincing cases that A Quiet Place / Bohemian will take this and I don't think Black Panther is out of the question either. This year is hard to predict, y'all.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody probably has this one sewn up, primarily for providing the joy of that soundwall of Queen hits. Queen is a great band but that doesn’t mean we should be throwing statues at a bad movie about them!
Should Win: Roma and First Man both have incredible soundscapes and if they want to honor a music drama for the win, A Star is Born‘s mix is a lot more of a challenge than hitting play on Queen’s greatest hits collection. I know I'm being reductive but it feels like the world is being gaslit into believing that Bohemian Rhapsody is some sort of worthy film. What is happening?
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / Should Win: The Favourite. Oscar voters love royalty porn and palaces, so why not? The film is a work of art. Those tapestries alone! That said we won't be made at all if Roma‘s immersive take on Mexico City in 1970 or Black Panther‘s imaginative Wakanda takes it instead.
Imagine a tie!
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Mexico’s Roma, hands down, though Poland’s Cold War would have easily won in a non Netflix/Roma dominant year.
Should Win: Japan’s Shoplifters. Rent it. You’ll weep. But really this is a great category this year. Lebanon’s Capernaum is also riveting.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Tough call as there hasn’t been a clear frontrunner as there too often is in each and every acting race. It’s either going to be Regina King’s warmth and fortitude as a distraught mother in If Beale Street Could Talk or Rachel Weisz’s lacerating quips and heartbreak in The Favourite.
Should Win: We’re rooting for Regina since Rachel has a leading role and has already won but, that said, Rachel is fan-tas-tic in The Favourite as stated so explicitly in our last Smackdown conversation.
Officially I predicted Regina King but now I'm thinking Rachel Weisz.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will Win: Weekends for a wild guess, though Pixar’s Bao is the most widely seen.
Should Win: Abstain. I really meant to take in the shorts program this week but this time of year is always such rough going, scheduling-wise.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should Win: Isle of Dogs and Spider-Verse are both grand imaginative entertainments.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: First Man. Lately the winner in this category has been the film with the lowest gross (in a category that regularly nominated blockbusters). Funny, right? And that moon landing is just sublime filmmaking.
Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War. But for whatever reason superhero movies almost never win. Spider-Man 2 (2004) is literally the only superhero film that’s ever won this Oscar, competitively speaking.
BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: This category is sometimes an Oscar bellwether as to what will win Best Picture. If it goes to Green Book, I'd fully expect that to take Best Picture. If it goes toBohemian Rhapsody or Vice, there may be other factors at work like the challenge of turning a troubled production into a blockbuster or “Most” Editing respectively. We’re guessing Vice but it’ll be close either way.
Should Win: Either of the two that look like they have no shot at it: the confrontational BlacKkKlansman with it crosscut conversations with classic cinema, or The Favourite, with its merciless comic precision and its soulful and strange dissolves.
Second thoughts: It seems that everyone has joined the Bohemian Rhapsody 'will win here' train so I'm nervous about my prediction. Maybe I just didnt want to deal with an Oscar that close in proximity to Bryan Singer and the icky feelings that will continue to churn up online in discussions about Hollywood's sexual abuse problems; John Ottman has EXCLUSIVELY edited for Bryan Singer his whole career (though it should be noted that he's also a music composer - but in that portion of his career he sometimes leaves Singer's filmography... though he also scores some of Singer's films).
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: We have a suspicion that Period. End of Sentence, currently streaming on Netflix, which is about an upstart factory producing tampons for women in rural India might take it. It’s the rare non-depressing Doc short nominee.
Should Win: …but we’re rooting for End Game, also streaming on Netflix, which Glenn thinks will win. This emotionally charged short is about end-of-life care and new ways of looking at and making peace with death. It’s from two-time Oscar winning gay documentarian Rob Epstein (of The Times of Harvey Milk, Common Threads: Stories from the Quilt, and The Celluloid Closet fame)
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: I'm guessing Detainment. Eric is guessing Skin
Should Win: Eric likes Detainment best. I'm partial to Marguerite, the lone live-action short nominee this year that is not a traumatically violent story involving little boys (weird trend alert!). It’s a drama about an aging woman who realizes her nurse is a lesbian, which then prompts her to remember her own lost love.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman because it’s a chance to finally give Spike Lee a competitive Oscar and the film and screenplay are damn good, too.
Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me? a screenplay from the great writer Nicole Holofcener (who usually directs her own screenplays – but not this time), and Tony winner Jeff Whitty (of Avenue Q fame).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Another tough call. If Green Book wins this, we expect it to take Best Picture, too. And that’s what we’re currently thinking.
Should Win: The Favourite
Green Book is not really going to win this is it? Perhaps I'm just freaking myself out. The Favourite would be an obvious choice to check on your ballot, wouldn't it?
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Cold War, that other gloriously shot black & white foreign movie in the mix this year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Black Panther
Should Win: It’s a strong category this year since Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, If Beale Street Could Talk, and BlacKkKlansman would also make fine winners. In fact both Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman already won Grammys (in separate categories) recently.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will / Should Win: If Lady Gaga doesn’t take this for “Shallow” there will be (gay) riots. Early prediction: the performance of “Shallow” will be the highlight of the ceremony, unless someone like Glenn Close gives a pitch perfect quotable speech.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón for his personal and artistic triumph, Roma. I love Cuarón but I am a bit worried about how dragged down the show might get with having to watch the same person give 3 (director, foreign film, cinematography) to 5 (picture and screenplay) of the 24 speeches.
Should Win: Listen, it's a really good category. They can't really go wrong unless well... that's not going to happen so never mind.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Rami Malek has this wrapped up. During your Oscar party you should have your guests lipsync to Queen hits during commercial break. Whoever does the best job should get a toy Oscar as a party favor because apparently spirited lipsynching is enough to win an Oscar now? [sigh]
Should Win: Bradley Cooper hands down. That his raw soulful lived in performance as a troubled rock star falling in love isn’t picking up trophies is bewildering. Plus he does his own singing and songwriting. Rami Malek could never.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win/Should Win: Glenn Close in The Wife. Yes, there’s a chance that Olivia Colman upsets Close’s long-denied coronation with her hilarious and moving work as Queen Anne in The Favourite but we think Hollywood will realize it’s time to honor Close’s career with the trophy she’s been long denied. This is her seventh nomination and it’s not a pity nomination: she’s spectacular in the movie and I’m proud to have been quoted on one of the earliest posters, saying so. She’s now the most nominated actress of all time to have never won. At least until Sunday.
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: Who knows? Our crystal balls are so cloudy. The precursor awards have been as tumultuous as the Academy’s constant walked back press releases about their show. Roma won the Directors Guild Award, Black Panther took the Screen Actors Guild Award, Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Bookowned the Globes, Roma nabbed the Critics Choice, Green Book won the Producers Guild Award, and then Roma and The Favourite cleaned up at BAFTA. Plus the Oscars use a “preferential” ballot for Best Picture (which they don’t use on the other categories) which means you can win the top prize even if you didn’t get the most #1 votes (provided you have a lot of #2 and #3 votes), as long as another film doesn’t win outright with too many #1 votes on the first count to have to go down the list — look, it’s complicated! (They basically have to rank the nominees.)
In the end we think it’s going to either Roma or Green Book, which both appear to be beloved in Hollywood and will surely get a lot of #1 through #3 votes, but Black Panther wouldn’t be surprising if no film dominates on first count because nobody hates Black Panther. Hesistant prediction: Green Book.
Should Win: The Favourite.
People. Nick Davis has me legitimately scared that Bohemian Rhapsody is going to take the ultimate prize. Perhaps people were too busy being mad at Green Book to notice that Bohemian was that much of a threat? Or maybe it's all silly worrying and Roma has this in the bag.
HOW DUMB WILL THESE PREDICTIONS LOOK ON SUNDAY NIGHT?
We’ve predicted a ‘spread the wealth’ kind of night with all the Best Picture nominees winning at least one Oscar like so: Roma and Green Book (3 each), Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, and Black Panther (2 each), and The Favourite, A Star is Born, and BlacKkKlansman (1 each). The wild cards are definitely Roma and The Favourite. They each have ten nominations and it’s easy to see scenarios wherein they pick up a lot more than we’ve predicted here, maybe as high as 5 Oscars each!
HAPPY OSCAR WATCHING, ALL! We'll have a lot of post Oscar content as per usual so keep coming back now, y'hear?