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95th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2022 / CEREMONY: March 12th, 2023
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

  

AND THE WINNER IS...
Germany "All Quiet on the Western Front"


Germany
(4th win | 21st nom* | 66 submissions) 
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

Streaming on Netflix

* This includes the stats from before unification

 

Argentina
(2 wins | 8 noms | 49 submissions)
ARGENTINA 1985

Streaming on Amazon Prime

 

Belgium
(7 noms | 47 submissions)
CLOSE

Opening in US in 2023

Poland
(1 win | 13 nominations | 54 submissions)
EO

Currently in US theaters

Ireland
(first nomination! | 9 submissions)
THE QUIET GIRL

Opening in US in 2023

 

WHICH FILM SHOULD WIN (vote daily)

 

HOW'D I DO ON MY PREDICTIONS?

4/5 I sensed that Decision to Leave was vulnerable but didn't quite dare to predict the snub! I missed The Quiet Girl, predicting that Joyland would surprise.

 

WHAT WAS LEFT OUT?

The big "snub" was South Korea's Decision to Leave which had been much lauded all year including a director win at Cannes. The other finalists that had reason to believe an Oscar nod might be in the cards given some precursor success were Mexico's Bardo, Austria's Corsage, and France's Saint Omer. The other finalists were Cambodia's Return to Seoul, Pakistan's Joyland, Denmark's Holy Spider, Sweden's Cairo Conspiracy, Morocco's Blue Caftan, and India's The Last Film Show

 

COMPLETE OFFICIAL SUBMISSION CHARTS

The bulk of the submissions are eliminated each year with the announcement of the finalists. Of the 77 titles that didn't make the shortlist, the ones that had garnered the highest profiles or most passionate fanbases were arguably Bolivia's Utama, Brazil's Mars One, Finland's Girl Picture, Spain's Alcarras, and Ukraine's Klondike.

The submission list this year was 92 titles wide.

Pt 1 ALBANIA through GEORGIA.  -29 submissions
Pt 2 GERMANY through NORWAY - 33 submissions
Pt 3 PAKISTAN through VIETNAM - 30 submissions


 

 

OSCAR STATS & FUN TRIVIA ABOUT THIS CATEGORY
Most wins for a foreign film

FOUR WAY TIE Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon (Taiwan 2000), Fanny & Alexander's (Sweden 1983), and All Quiet... (2022) share the record with 4 wins (Foreign Film plus crafts). Parasite (South Korea, 2019) tied them all but in 'bigger' categories: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and International

Most nominations for a foreign film

TIE Roma (2018) and Crouching Tiger's share this record with 10 nominations each. 

Roma went on to three wins and Crouching four but neither film was able to win Best Picture.

Most competitive wins in the category by director

Federico Fellini won 4 Oscars for Italy: La Strada (1956), Nights of Cabiria (1957), 8 1/2 (1963) and Amarcord (1974). In fact, he won every time he was nominated witin this category. Italy submitted his work three other times but Satyricon, Roma, and And the Ship Sails On were not nominated.

Most competitive wins & nominations w/out winning International Feature

Pan's Labyrinth (2006) won 3 awards from 6 nominations but lost its own category to The Lives of Others.

Most nominated country

France leads with 38 nominees (they were also given 3 honoraries before nominations began proper in 1956). Their most recent win was 30 years ago with Indochine (1992) starring Catherine Deneuve.

MORE ON FRANCE & OSCAR HERE

Most winning country

Italy leads with 14 wins (3 of which were honoraries). Some of the most famous films among their winners are The Bicycle Thief (1949), 8 1/2 (1963), The Garden of the Finzi-Continis (1971), Cinema Paradiso (1989), and Life is Beautiful (1998). Italy has struggled since the 21st century began, though, with only 1 win  (The Great Beauty, 2013)

 

Most popular country with Oscar these past two decades

That would be GERMANY. In the 21st century (i.e. the past 22 years) Germany has been nominated 9 times and won twice.

More details on last row of this chart

First foreign language film nominated for Best Picture

Grand Illusion (1938). But Oscar didn't start giving statues to foreign films until 11 years later and foreign films didn't get their own competitive category until 1956

Most influential snub of the past two decades

You have the horror of the snubbing of Romania's Palme d'or winner 4 Weeks, 3 Months and 2 Days (2007) to thank for the creation of the Academy's Executive Committee. Nominations have been so much better ever since!

First foreign language film to win an acting Oscar

Italy's Two Women (1961) won Best Actress for Sophia Loren who was, not unimportantly, already a major star in the US. But Italy did not submit her vehicle for Foreign Film, choosing Michelangelo Antonioni's La Notte instead (which was not nominatd)

First country to break through Oscar's midcentury France/Italy/Japan obsession

For the first 12 years of foreign-language film honors only France, Italy, or Japan were ever honored. Sweden was the first country to break up that strangehold with back to back Ingmar Bergman wins for The Virgin Spring (1960) and Through a Glass Darkly (1961)

First foreign language film to win any Oscar

Switzerland's Marie-Louise (1944) won Best Screenplay, years before the foreign film category began.

First foreign language film winner to win more than one Oscar

Japan's Gate of Hell (1954) won the Honorary for Foreign Film and also took home Costume Design.

Costume Design is the category with the most wins for foreign-language films (7 in total). Runner up is a 3-way tie of 6 wins between Original Screenplay,  Cinematography, and Score (the latter two won by All Quiet this season).

Only directors of foreign film nominees to go on to direct a Best Picture winner

Czech director Milos Forman for Loves of a Blonde (1965)/ Fireman's Ball (1967) + One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)/ Amadeus (1984) was the first to do it. Two Mexican filmmakers have followed suit: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Amores Perros (2000)/Biutiful (2010) + Birdman (2014) and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth (2006) + Shape of Water (2017),

Only Bong Joon-ho has done both simultaneously (with Parasite, 2019)

Only Best International Film winners to also win Best Director

Bong Joon-ho (Parasite for South Korea) and Alfonso Cuarón (Roma for Mexico) are the only directors to accomplish this feat and both were very recent.

It's worth noting that Ang Lee (Taiwan) has won the Best Director category twice but curiously neither time was that win connected to either a Best Picture Winner or a Best International Film winner. Very interesting stat for Mr. Ang Lee there, showing how often he's delivered in a major way.

Most Popular Countries with Oscar
(20th Century Only)

1. FRANCE
(33 noms/9 wins + 3 Honoraries) 

2. ITALY
(26 noms/10 wins + 3 Honoraries)

3. SPAIN
(18 noms / 3 wins)

4. SWEDEN
(12 noms / 3 wins)

5. GERMANY
(12 noms / 1 win)

6. JAPAN
(10 noms + 3 Honoraries)

7. SOVIET UNION
(9 noms / 3 wins)

8. HUNGARY
(8 noms / 1 win)

9. NETHERLANDS
(5 noms / 3 wins)

runners up:
Israel, Yugoslavia 

Most Popular Countries with Oscar
(21st Century... evolving)

1. GERMANY
(9 noms/3 wins + 5 finalists)

2. DENMARK
(8 noms/2 wins + 3 finalists)

3. FRANCE
(8 noms + 4 finalists)

4. POLAND
(6 noms/1 win)

5. MEXICO
(5 noms/1 win + 4 finalists)

6. CANADA
(5 noms/1 win + 3 finalists)

7. JAPAN
(4 noms/2 wins + 1 finalist)

8. ARGENTINA
(4 noms/1 win)

runners up
: AustriaSweden, Iran

Directors with Most Success In This Category Though *Technically* the Country Wins

special cases
Akira Kurosawa (Japan), Vittorio de Sica (Italy) Rene Clement (France)

Honoraries before category existed. Then competing films so hard to fit in this list...

4 noms / 4 wins
Federico Fellini (Italy)

4 noms / 1 win
Jose Luis Garci (Spain)
Istvan Szabo (Hungary)

4 noms / no wins
Andrjez Wajda (Poland)
Mario Monicelli (Italy)

3 noms / 3 wins
Ingmar Bergman (Sweden)

3 noms / 1 win
Pedro Almodovar (Spain)
Luis Bunuel (Spain/France)
Nikita Mikalkhov (Russia)
Francois Truffaut (France)

3 noms / no wins
Jan Troell (Sweden)
Bo Widerberg (Sweden)

too many two-timers to list

Stars Who've Appeared in Most International Feature Nominees


in 7 nominated films
Max Von Sydow

in 5 nominated films
Catherine Deneuve 
Marcello Mastroianni 

in 4 nominated films
Ricardo Darin
Gerard Depardieu 
Vittorio Gassman
Isabelle Huppert 
Mads Mikkelsen 
Philippie Noiret

in 3 nominated films
Fanny Ardant
Klaus Maria Brandauer
Gael Garcia Bernal 
Penelope Cruz
Erland Josephson
Gong Li
Sophia Loren
Tatuya Nakadai
Fernando Rey
Jean-Louis Trintignant
Liv Ullmann

Way too many actors have appeared in two nominated films to list them but some who are still working who could enter the list above include Bardem, Banderas,  Servillo, Bruhl, and Koch

Only Best International Film Nominees to Also Compete in Best Picture

Z (1969)
The Emigrants (1971)
Life is Beautiful (1997)
Crouching Tiger (2000)
Amour (2012)
Roma (2018)
Parasite (2019)
Drive My Car (2021)
All Quiet on the... (2022)

Nominated for Best Picture but NOT submitted for  International by Their Country

Cries and Whispers (1972)
Il Postino (1995)

Nominated for Best Picture Before International Feature Existed as a Category

Grand Illusion (1938) 

 

Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp Actress | Director 

Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film