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95th OSCARS. Predictions for the Films of 2022
CEREMONY: March 12th, 2023
For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog
AND THE WINNER IS ...
MICHELLE YEOH, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
* stats reflect acting categories only
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CATE BLANCHETT Role: A famous lesbian conductor begins to unravel when she's caught in a sexual abuse-of-power scandal. Wins: CCA, Globe, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, and numerous critics awards |
ANA DE ARMAS Role: A troubled sexually exploited movie star struggles to find love, happiness, and career fulfillment. Wins: -- |
ANDREA RISEBOROUGH Role: An alcholic Texan and former lottery winner tries to rebuild her life and reconnect with her son. Wins: Raindance Festival |
MICHELLE WILLIAMS Role: A free spirited mother, who encourages her son's artistic pursuits, strays from her marriage. Wins: -- |
MICHELLE YEOH Role: A laundromat owner struggling with taxes and disappointment in her husband and daughter, discovers the multiverse. Wins: Globe, NBR, Saturn, and numerous critics awards |
| Who SHOULD win? | ||||
How'd I do on my predictions? |
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| 3/5 I missed Riseborough and Williams, thinking Margot Robbie in Babylon (Globe/CCA nominee) & Danielle Deadwyler in Till (BAFTA/CCA/SAG nominee) would be here instead. | ||||
Who was left out? |
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The biggest "snub" in terms of steady precursor love was Viola Davis for The Woman King (though I had personally never believed she woudl be nominated given Oscar's genre bias against acting in action films). The biggest miss in terms of critical acclaim was Danielle Deadwyler for the civil rights drama Till. Other women who were in the mix of the awards conversation and industry buzz were Margot Robbie (Babylon), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), and Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) but between the five of them it's impossible to know who was in 6th place in such a volatile crowded year in BOTH female acting categories. |
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Who WILL win? |
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At this point it's surely a tight race between Cate Blanchett's intimidating TAR and Michelle Yeoh's history-making star turn in Everything Everywhere All At Once both from Best Picture nominated films that inarguably overperformed on nomination morning. Blanchett probably has the edge at this point but there's a full month to go... UPDATE: That final month proved decisive and Yeoh's fortunes rose as Blanchett's flatlined. Still, in any other year Blanchett might have sailed to a third win for that performance. |
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Who SHOULD win? |
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| Leaving that up to you in the poll above! | ||||
HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED? Please note these are not "critiques" (all five are wonderful performances) but just an acknowledgement that awards are never about one thing but about many things. |
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| 35% Role/Performance Demanding intimidating character that she nails. So instantly iconic people assumed Lydia Tar was a real globally famous conductor. 26% She's Cate Blanchett, like Streep automatically considered no matter the film / turn. 18% Best Picture heat. Could have been just an actress vehicle. Wasn't. 10% Unwaivering critical / precursor support clearing a path for a third Oscar 6% Industry Resonance Everyone in Hollywood is terrified of being cancelled. 5% Todd Field's brilliance |
67% Role. Awards bodies have always loved Marilyn portrayals which have led to Emmy, Oscar, and Tony nods for various actors. 20% Performance. Even people who didn't love the movie admired it 6% Globe love revived interest in a very crowded race 5% Knives Out + No Time To Die --rapidly ascending star afterglow 2% Early traction! September release struck while the iron was hot from festival buzz. Widely seen (via Netflix) before her competition arrived. |
40% Performance. Lived-in and vanity free. You can practically smell the booze 36% Peer-led campaign with precision timing. An unusually crowded race split support across many competitors (with genre or film obstacles), opening a window for passion votes to make a bigger-than-usual difference. 17% Role. Oscar has always loved alcoholics 5% An actor's actor. She's been elevating movies that didn't deserve her (+ a few that did) for a long time. 2% Spirit nod got the ball rolling |
33% Best Picture heat. An early frontrunner and a personal project from Hollywood's golden boy Steven Spielberg. 21% She's Michelle Williams. They love her. 20% Role/Performance. Problematic moms are all over Oscar history. Her stylized star turn was polarizing but you can't vote against someone. 14% Paul Dano & Seth Rogen & Mateo Zoryan. The way they looked at her, utterly besotted 10% Dutiful precursors-as-pundits support 2% Conversational factor about her lead campaign. |
48% Role/Performance/ Narrative all rolled up into one and working in perfect if chaotic harmony. It's like a a feature length FYC reel for her inimitable gifts. All that and historic 'first' appeal when voting for her. 30% Best Picture heat. Crucial in this case given acting branch biases about genre performances 19% Box office success and resultant constant media love / precursor support 2% Jamie Lee Curtis cheerleading (with or without hot dog fingers) 1% "Sorry about the Crouching Tiger snub!" |
TRIVIA TIME In a really fun and unusual circumstance our 5 Best Actress nominees come from 5 different countries! Another notable thing: none of them come from showbiz families. The 5 different countries thing has happened before: In 2007 with Marion Cotillard (France), Elliott Page (Canada), Laura Linney (US), Julie Christie (UK) and Cate Blanchett (Australia). |
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Born in Melbourne, Australia Star Sign: Taurus Married with children Studied economics / fine arts until the acting bug hit With 8 nominations she's the second most nominated Australian of all time behind Catherine Martin's 10 nods. Select Other Awards 1 Tony nomination (1 Broadway show) 3 BAFTA wins (Elizabeth, The Aviator, Blue Jasmine) 2 previous Oscar wins (The Aviator, Blue Jasmine) 2 Emmy noms (Mrs America) 4 Globe wins (Elizabeth, I'm Not There, Blue Jasmine, TAR) |
Born in Havana, Cuba Star Sign: Taurus Dating a Tinder executive (no kids) Had her sights set on acting since she was 12 The first Cuban ever nominated in Best Actress Select Other Awards The Globes loved her first, nominating her for Knives Out (2019) |
Born in Tyne, England Star Sign: Scorpio Dating her Luxor costar Karim Saleh (no kids) The lowest grossing performance to ever secure a nomination that wasn't explicitly a streaming movie. That said in the streaming era box office grosses are less and less a factor, even for films with theatrical runs so expect more of this sort of thing in the future. Select Other Awards Drama Desk nominated but her one NYC stage play "The Pride" (with Ben Whishaw) didn't transfer to Broadway 1 SAG win (Birdman Outstanding Cast) |
Born in Montana, US Star Sign: Virgo Married with children Was a professional actor by the age of 13. One of Oscar's nine favourite actors of the 21st century. From 2000 onward the most popular actors (in terms of # of nominations) are: Select Other Awards 1 Tony nomination (2 Broadway shows) 1 Emmy win (Fosse/Verdon) 2 Globe wins (Fosse/Verdon, and My Week with Marilyn) |
Born in Ipoh, Malaysia Star Sign: Leo In a relationship with a motor racing executive for almost 20 years (no kids) Originally planned to become a dancer! The first Asian ever nominated for Best Actress (unless you count Merle Oberon who hid her heritage in the 1930s) Select Other Awards Won the Miss Malaysia pageant in 1983 1 Golden Globe (Everything Everywhere) BAFTA has been kindest originally nominating her for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon |
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