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FRESHLY UPDATED - DECEMBER 17 PREDICTIONS

97th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2024 CEREMONY: 2025
For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

Tier 1 - Predictions

Ralph Fiennes (2 noms) CONCLAVE noms: -- wins: -- noms: CCA, Oscar has ignored him for way too long. His terrifically conflicted performance in this Papal thriller will finally break that curse.	Adrien Brody (1 nom \| 1 win) THE BRUTALIST noms: Gotham wins: Atlanta, Boston Online, Chicago, Las Vegas, Michigan, Phoenix, noms: CCA, His best role and performance since The Pianist. So strong he could even win a second Oscar.	Timothee Chalamet (1 nom) A COMPLETE UNKNOWN noms: -- wins: -- noms: CCA, Oscar likes nothing (nothing!) as much as they like celebrities playing celebrities. Plus he does his own singing.	Colman Domingo (1 nom) SING SING noms: Gotham wins: San Diego, San Francisco, St Louis, noms: CCA, He's popular right now (deservedly so) and to our surprise the picture also has heat despite its early year release.	Daniel Craig (never nom'ed( QUEER noms: -- wins: NBR, noms: CCA, The time is definitely right for Oscar to honor him but the nature of the role keeps him slightly vulnerable. Not that there's a contender who seems likely to replace him.
Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

Sebastian Stan (never nom'ed) THE APPRENTICE Date TBA noms: -- wins: -- Oscar worships biopic performances but this will be tricky since everyone has 'mimic'ed T***p and (more problematic) voters probably won't want to watch it given the impending doom of 2025.	Sebastian Stan (never nom'ed) A DIFFERENT MAN Date TBA noms: -- wins: -- The movie has done better with precursors than anyone expected. Still with two leading roles and no desperately fradulent campaigning (thank you), his double character actor calling card will be a warm-up. If he has another Oscar adjacent style role soon, watch out!	Paul Mescal (1 nom) GLADIATOR 2 noms: -- wins: -- noms: -- Crowe won the Oscar for the preceding film and actors rightly understand that Mescal is a prodigious talent. Still in this case Denzel steals the show. Mescal just needs another great role to be in the shortlist again.	Hugh Grant (never nominated HERETIC noms: -- wins: -- noms: CCA, The precursors have been kind but Oscar voters have never recognized Grant's talent despite both its consistent quality and underrecognized range. And they're always weird about the horror genre.	Glen Powell (never nom'ed) HIT MAN noms: -- wins: -- noms: -- An utter delight in this early year favourite and his star is most definitely rising. Unfortunately the Globe Comedy nom will probably be where this peaks. He has the typical movie star problem in that he makes acting look easy and the acting branch (and critics) are often thrown by that in understanding talent.
Tier 3 - Extreme Long Shots

Jesse Plemons (1 nom) KINDS OF KINDNESS noms: -- wins: Cannes noms The Globe nod came as a surprise to us. Maybe people do still remember his Cannes win in May!	Cillian Murphy (1 nom \| 1 win) SMALL THINGS LIKE THESE noms: -- wins: -- noms: -- That Afterglow nomination we expected seems impossible now (given precursors and buzz) but at least critics were wild about his work in this Irish drama.	Jharrel Jerome (never nominated) UNSTOPPABLE noms: -- wins: -- noms: -- This is just about the only lead actor performance that has received zero precursor kudos that we can still imagine having a secret fanbase voting for it given its traditional Oscar- role qualities.	Jesse Eisenberg (1 nom) A REAL PAIN noms: -- wins: -- noms: -- His co-star (even more of a "lead" though it's a two-hander!) steals the show so Jesse will have to settle for a Screenplay nomination.	Sir Ian McKellen (2 noms) THE CRITIC August noms: -- wins: -- noms: -- He's great bitchy fun in this role but he's struggled to win the Academy's attention since his awful loss in 1998. And even a Globe Comedy didn't happen. grrr
Tier 3 - Better Luck Next Time. This Category Narrowed Down Super Quickly! Imagine how much more volatile it would have been had Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) campaigned in the correct category!
Previous Nominees Austin Butler - The Bikeriders Adam Driver - Megalopolis Andrew Garfield - We Live in Time Brad Pitt / George Clooney - Wolfs Michael Keaton - Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (Globe comedy nod?) Michael Shannon - The End Tom Hanks - Here Joaquin Phoenix - Joker: Folie A Deux Michael Shannon - The End Never nominated hopefuls Elliot Heffernan - Blitz John David Washington - The Piano Lesson Richard Gere - Oh Canada Ryan Gosling - The Fall Guy (Globe comedy nod?) Ethan Herisse - Nickel Boys Nicholas Hoult - Juror #2 Keith Kupferer - Ghostlist Gotham nominee Ryan Reynolds - Deadpool & Wolvering (Globe comedy nod?) Justice Smith - I Saw the TV Glow Gotham nominee Sebastian Stan - A Different Man Izaac Wang - Didi Gotham Breakthrough nominee