Timothee Chalamet
2 noms
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

While he's still young for an Oscar (that's just the way they vote, not a value judgement!) he surely came close to winning last year. It's only a matter of time... but how much?

noms:
HCA (Com), CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Leonardo DiCaprio
6 noms * | 1 win
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

His track record for managing to be at the center of Best Picture buzzing films is good. But good news, he's very fun -- even inspired - in this odd violent satirical provocation.

noms:
AARP, CCA,  HCA (Com), Globes (com),
wins:
Atlanta, NBR,

Wagner Moura

never nominated
THE SECRET AGENT
(Neon)

NEON has that Cannes Best Actor win to work with -- and the movie is actually garnering Best Picture buzz too which absolutely cannot hurt.

noms:
Gotham, HCA (Drama), CCA, Globes (Drama),
wins:
Cannes Best Actor, NYFCC,

Ethan Hawke
2 noms*
BLUE MOON
(Sony Pictures Classics)

SPC is good at campaigning and this is a true actors movie. Oscar likes their biopics less "miniature" than this but they like Hawke. We're predicting him but precursors will have to be there.

noms:
Gotham, AARP, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

George Clooney
4 noms *| 1 win*
JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

Much depends on the succcess of the film overall. We're starting to think the Academy will need something less political and more industry focused.

noms:
AARP , HCA (Com)  , 
Globes (com), 
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Jeremy Allen White
never nominated
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
(20th Century)

While the movie didn't make that much of a splash in release it's important tot note that this is the acting branch's absolute favourite of all movie genres.

noms:
HCA (Drama), Globes (Drama),
wins:
n/a

Joel Edgerton
never nominated
TRAIN DREAMS
(Netflix)

He's winning some of his best reviews ever. But will this quiet drama land with voters? Netflix always has a lot of internal competition for their campaign efforts which might be a problem when this isn't a slam dunk.

noms:
AARP, CCA, HCA (Drama),   Spirit, Globes (Drama),
wins:
n/a

Jesse Plemmons

1 nom
BUGONIA
(Focus)

Oscar loves a transformation and he looks completely different here having dropped a lot of weight and looking every bit the troubled radicalized man he plays. If precursors want the pair (Jesse & Emma) he has a good shot.

noms:
HCA (Com), Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Michael B Jordan
never nominated
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

It's a shame he's never been nominated. That said he's been much better before. Despite this being a "twin" performance (often juicy by nature!) it's a stronger movie than it is an acting showcase.

noms:
CCA, HCA (Drama), Globes (Drama),
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Will Arnett
never nominated
IS THIS THING ON?
(Searchlight)

There's still time for traction for this divorce drama in which Arnett has been weirdly styled to look like Bradley Cooper... (who is also there behind the camera and in support)

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Denzel Washington
2 wins
HIGHEST 2 LOWEST
(Apple TV+)

The Academy worships him but the film didn't generate much buzz. Still, they could easily default to a favourite star.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Tonatiuh
never nominated
KISS OF THE SPIDER-WOMAN
(Lionsgate)

This role previously won the Oscar for William Hurt in the 1980s. Tonatiuh received Best in Show reviews in the musical adaptation as the movie-obsessed queer prisoner Valentin (now interpreted as a transwoman rather than a gay man.)

noms:
Gotham Breakthrough
wins:
n/a

Dwayne Johnson
never nominated
THE SMASHING MACHINE
(A24)

The acting branch goes crazy for biographical pictures -- they also like famous non-prestige stars to "surprise" them in dramatic efforts. And yet the film was not a success which won't help. 

noms:
AARP, HCA (Drama), Globes (Drama),
wins:
n/a

Hugh Jackman
1 nom
SONG SUNG BLUE
(Focus)

He seems likely for Golden Globe nomination and if the film is a hit could gain late traction. Especially if his chemistry with Kate Hudson sparkles.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Lee Byung Hun
never nominated
NO OTHER CHOICE
(Neon)

A brilliant star turn but it's always an uphill climb for subtitled performances and Asian actors (sigh) with awards.

noms:
Gotham, Blue Dragon, HCA (Com), Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

FYC. Maybe they're too indy or the release too small for traction with the actor's branch. But we always dream that awards voters will take their ballots seriously and watch lots of movies instead of just the 12 movies with Best Picture heat. Can any of these performances catch on?

• Ben Whishaw - Peter Hujar's Day   Spirit nominee,
• Bill Skarsgard - Dead Man's Wire
• Channing Tatum - Roofman (brilliant but people always take his gifts for granted - unfortunately he'll have to give a duller less charimastic performance with more "bait" when he's older to be honored)
• Chang Chen - Lucky Lu   Spirit nominee,
• Dylan O'Brien - Twinless SXSW Jury Prize for Acting (just brilliant. we've seen him mentioned as supporting which is frankly insane but awards season shenanigans have permanently altered people's brains around rudimentary understandings of story structure - your protagonist is your lead, duh!) HCA (Drama) Nominee,   Spirit nominee,
• Everett Blunck - The Plague CCA (Young Actor) Nominee, 
• Everett Blunck - Griffin in Summer 
• Guillaume Marbeck - Nouvelle Vague
• Harry Melling - Pillion BIFA nomination
• Cillian Murphy - Steve BIFA nomination
• Josh O'Connor - Mastermind - Gotham nomination 
• Sergi Lopez - Sirât EFA nomination 
• Theodore Pellerin - Lurker   Spirit nominee,
• Toni Servillo - La Grazia EFA Nomination

A Golden Globe nomination isn't at all impossible to imagine for two or three of these. But if it does come to pass, will it help?

• Brendan Fraser - Rental Family HCA (Com) nomination
• Colin Farrell - Ballad of a Small Player - Middleburg Splotlight Actor 
• Daniel Craig - Wake Up Dead Man
• Glenn Powell - Running Man
• Oscar Isaac - Frankenstein - Gotham Vanguard Tribute, Globes (Drama) Nominee,
• Robert Pattinson - Mickey 17 (fantastic! but the acting branch is limited in what they'll consider "best" and sci-fi is their biggest genre blindspot)

Previous nominees but it's a stretch to imagine them in the mix this time around for various reasons.

• Austin Butler - Caught Stealing
• Brad Pitt - F1
• Benedict Cumberbatch - The Thing With Feathers
• Benicio Del Toro - The Phoenician Scheme
• Daniel Day-Lewis - Anemone
• Joaquin Phoenix - Eddington
• Matthew McConaughey - The Lost Bus
• Paul Mescal - The History of Sound
• Ralph Fiennes - The Choral