Tier 1 - Predictions

We've narrowed the chart down to ten players... but to be honest, the race feels like it's down to six men already (with Leo & Timmy locked and four men Wagner, Ethan, Joel, and Michael B all looking probable for three remaining slots... but wait there's four of them. Whoever gets snubbed it's going to hurt.

Only six true players is disappointing We like it to be more competitive than this -- and Lee Byung Hun is RIGHT THERE for the taking -- but the precursor awards did not challenge voters to look beyond frontrunning films.

Timothee Chalamet
2 noms
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

While he's still young for an Oscar (that's just the way they vote, not a value judgement!) he surely came close to winning last year. It could well be his year given this electric performance.

noms:
HCA (Com), CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
Chicago, Indiana, PCC,

Leonardo DiCaprio
6 noms * | 1 win
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

His track record for managing to be at the center of Best Picture buzzing films is strong. He's the msot inspired he's been in a long while in this odd violent satirical provocation.

noms:
AARP, CCA,  HCA (Com), Globes (com),
wins:
Atlanta, NBR, Dallas,

Wagner Moura

never nominated
THE SECRET AGENT
(Neon)

NEON has that Cannes Best Actor win to work with -- and the movie might even make it into Best Picture which absolutely cannot hurt.

noms:
Gotham, HCA (Drama), CCA, Globes (Drama),
wins:
Cannes Best Actor, NYFCC

Ethan Hawke
2 noms*
BLUE MOON
(Sony Pictures Classics)

A true actors movie and he's respected in the industry. Still Oscar likes their biopics less and he's been the critics award leader before and missed the nomination (First Reformed) so he could be vulnerable.

noms:
Gotham, AARP, CCA, Globes (com),
wins: LAFCA, Boston,
NYFCO,

Joel Edgerton
never nominated
TRAIN DREAMS
(Netflix)

While he's a less flashy option than most of his competition, we think his track record of good work without rewards combined with the passion for this film will help him squeeze in.

noms:
AARP, CCA, HCA (Drama),   Spirit, Globes (Drama),
wins:
n/a

Michael B. Jordan
never nominated
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

It's a shame he's never been nominated. That said he's been much better before. Despite this being a "twin" performance (often juicy by nature!) it's a stronger movie than it is an acting showcase.

noms:
CCA, HCA (Drama), Globes (Drama),
wins:
AAFCA, Michigan,
good PR:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Jeremy Allen White
never nominated
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
(20th Century)

While the movie didn't make that much of a splash in release it's important tot note that this is the acting branch's absolute favourite of all movie genres.

noms:
HCA (Drama), Globes (Drama),
wins:
n/a

Jesse Plemmons

1 nom
BUGONIA
(Focus)

Oscar loves a transformation and he looks completely different here having dropped a lot of weight and looking every bit the troubled radicalized man he plays. If precursors want the pair (Jesse & Emma) he has a good shot.

noms:
HCA (Com), Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Lee Byung Hun
never nominated
NO OTHER CHOICE
(Neon)

A brilliant star turn but it's always an uphill climb for subtitled performances and Asian actors (sigh) with awards.

noms:
Gotham, Blue Dragon, HCA (Com), Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

George Clooney
4 noms *| 1 win*
JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

Much depends on the succcess of the film overall. We're starting to think the Academy will need something less political and more industry focused.

noms:
AARP , HCA (Com)  , 
Globes (com), 
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Quite a year for leading men with many worthy performances. Five is never enough in some years. Better luck next year...

• Ben Whishaw - Peter Hujar's Day   Spirit nominee,
• Benicio Del Toro - The Phoenician Scheme
• Brad Pitt - F1
• Brendan Fraser - Rental Family HCA (Com) nomination
• Channing Tatum - Roofman
• Chang Chen - Lucky Lu   Spirit nominee,
• Cillian Murphy - Steve BIFA nomination
• Colin Farrell - Ballad of a Small Player - Middleburg Splotlight Actor 
• Daniel Day Lewis - Anemone
• Denzel Washington - Highest 2 Lowest
• Dwayne Johnson - Smashing Machine AARP, HCA (Drama), Globes (Drama),
• Dylan O'Brien - Twinless HCA (Drama) Nominee,   Spirit nominee, and SXSW Jury Prize
• Everett Blunck - The Plague CCA (Young Actor) Nominee, 
• Guillaume Marbeck - Nouvelle Vague
• Harry Melling - Pillion BIFA nomination
• Hugh Jackman - Song Sung Blue
• Josh O'Connor - Mastermind - Gotham nomination 
• Oscar Isaac - Frankenstein - Gotham Vanguard Tribute, Globes (Drama) Nominee,
• Robert Pattinson - Mickey 17
• Sergi Lopez - Sirât EFA nomination 
• Theodore Pellerin - Lurker   Spirit nominee,
• Toni Servillo - La Grazia EFA Nomination
• Will Arnett - Is This Thing On?