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FRESHLY UPDATED - DECEMBER 17 PREDICTIONS

 

Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp Actress | Director 
Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film

97th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2024
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

  

Tier 1 - Predictions

Mikey Madison
(never nominated)
ANORA
October

wins: NBR (Breakthrough),

Atlanta, Atlanta (Breakthrough), Boston, DC, Las Vegas, Michigan, Michigan (Breakthrough), Phoenix, San Diego (Breakthrough), St Louis, Toronto,

noms: CCA,

The Cannes hoopla lasted and people love the film. Her only disadvantage is the youth-skewing rowdy vibes (not always Oscar's cuppa). But she's a blast in the film. 

Angelina Jolie
(2 noms | 1 win)
MARIA
December

wins: --
noms: CCA,

 Playing the opera star Maria Callas. Pablo Larrain always lands his female actors in the Best Actress circle for his English language biopics

 

Cynthia Erivo
(1 nom)
WICKED
November

wins: NBR (Creative Collaboration),
noms: CCA,

 Elphaba was an awards-role on stage but film is a different story when it comes to the fantasy genre. Still, she's a likely nominee given that it's a smash hit and her voice is amazing.

Karla Sofia Gascon
(never nominated)
EMILIA PEREZ
November

wins: Cannes (tied), EFA, 
noms: CCA,

 A shared Best Actress win at Cannes and the titular role but does it help or hurt that Zoe Saldana (in the other lead role campaigning as supporting) is even better? 

 

Marianne Jean-Baptiste
(1 nom)
HARD TRUTHS
December

wins: LAFCA, Boston Online, Chicago, San Diego, San Francisco, Toronto,
noms: Gotham, CCA,

Her reunion with Mike Leigh is winning raves but will the acting branch seek it out amongst their dozens and dozens of screeners?
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be...

Demi Moore
(never nominated)
THE SUBSTANCE
September

wins: --
noms: Gotham, CCA,

 It would be a blast if that comeback traction actually lands her here. It's looking very possible BUT the horror genre typically struggles in this category even when the leading lady is sensational. 

Nicole Kidman
(1 win
BABYGIRL
December

wins: NBR,  Venice Volpi Cup

noms: Gotham

 The subject matter is likely going to be a turn-off for voters despite the raves she's received. But she's in the conversation at least. Yay! That said they only nominate her for her "safe" roles. 

 

Tilda Swinton
(1 nom | 1 win
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR
December

wins: --

noms: --

 It would be lovely to see this icon back in the mix given her filmography. It could happen but it's looking less likely by the day. 

 

 

Fernanda Torres
(never nominated)
I'M STILL HERE
December

wins: --

noms: --

 

  Can SPC make this Brazilian film happen with Oscar? People are loving the film and Fernanda in it. But in a very competitive year is it possible? 

Amy Adams
(6 noms)
NIGHT BITCH
December

wins: --

noms: --

An intriguing role for her. Initial response was mixed and the film's profile is quite low but Adams is always a threat. They've nominated her for a lot lot less.
Tier 3 - Extreme Long Shots

Zendaya
(never nom'ed)
CHALLENGERS
April

wins: --

noms: --

It's fun when Oscar stumps for old fashioned star turns. It doesn't happen enough to think it will here but Zendaya is setting herself up well for her next award-worthy turn.

 

Pamela Anderson
(never nominated
THE LAST SHOWGIRL
November

wins: --

noms: Gotham

If it weren't for Demi Moore -- who has dominated the "who would have thought?" buzz this season, Pamela might have been in the mix.

Kate Winslet
(1 win)
LEE
September

wins: --

noms: --

Fine reviews for this biopic about a war photographer but the film never shook off that very low profile since a full year ago when it was almost a 2023 contender. 

Saoirse Ronan
(4 noms)
THE OUTRUN
September

wins: --

noms: Gotham, BIFA

She won raves at Sundance for this role and though Oscar voters are historically thrilled by alcoholicism performances the buzz has  evaporated.

June Squibb
(1 nom)
THELMA
June

wins: San Diego (Comedy), --

noms: --

Well received at Sundance but the lack of even a Globe Comedy nod  doomed her chances. Still a hoot, though!
Tier 4 - Other Leads

Previously nominated but not in the mix this year

  • Emily Blunt - The Fall Guy
  • Florence Pugh -We Live in Time
  • Kristen Stewart - Love Lies Bleeding
  • Lily Gladstone - Fancy Dance
  • Scarlett Johansson - Fly Me to the Moon
  • Julianne Moore - The Room Next Door

Never Nominated...