Tier 1 - Predictions

Jessie Buckley looks like she's heading to the statue but since we don't like to predict wins until nomination season has wrapped, we should note that the other nine members of the top ten all feel possible (if precursors are kind) for the other four slots.

Jessie Buckley
1 nomination
HAMNET
(Focus)

Her star has been on the rise and they're already familiar. She's paired with a great director (Chloe Zhao) and it's a potentially meaty role as the grieving wife of Shakespeare

noms:
Gotham, CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
Atlanta,

Renate Reinsve
never nominated
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

She broke out with Worst Person in the World and has been busy ever since. This reunion with Joachim Trier should be her ticket to the big show. Crossing fingers but also believing it is quite likely.

noms:
EFA, CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a

Emma Stone
4 noms* | 2 wins
BUGONIA
(Focus)

They love Stone and Lanthimos as package deal and it's another great role for one of her generation's most gifted movie stars. It's not going to be able to more artistically conservative voters, though.

noms:
CCA,  Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Rose Byrne
never nominated
IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU
(A24)

Reviews were fantastic and she's still somehow, after all these years, an underappreciated actor (curiously despite so many people loving her work). Will the acting branch actually watch films that aren't Best Picture contenders this year? We can always dream!

noms:
Gotham,   Spirit, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
Silver Bear Venice, NYFCC, NBR,
good PR:
Middleburg Trailblazer

Tessa Thompson
never nominated
HEDDA
(Amazon)

She's deserving of showcases so everyone is loving this for her. Still Amazon isn't as good at the campaign game as other distributors. It is a classic role though so it might happen.

noms:
Gotham,   Spirit, Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Tribute

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers...

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Amanda Seyfried
1 nomination
THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE
(Searchlight)

Reviews for her performance are fantastic but the film, an original musical about a religious leader, is polarizing. She's been beating expectations for years now. Maybe the Academy should spring for a second nod!

noms:
Gotham, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Cynthia Erivo
2 noms*
WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

Will they repeat the Wicked acting nods or feel that they've had their due? Oscar has not yet become like the Emmys in terms of actors. But if we see more franchises or two-parters nominated, the risk is there.

noms:
Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Chase Infinitii
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

In something of a surprise they're campaining her as Lead. Voters could balk and put her in supporting but she could also surprise. Oscar loves a discovery and we know they tilt Best Picture whenever they have the chance in most categories.

noms:
Gotham Breakthrough, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
Atlanta (Breakthrough),

Jodie Foster
5 noms | 2 wins
VIE PRIVEE
(SPC)

Initially we thought a leading role in French would be easy awards bait book, but response has been muted. A qualifying only release won't help. Still, she's just excellent / riveting -it's like having 1990s Jodie back! -- in the film as a psychiatrist in obsessive crisis.

noms:
AARP 
wins:
n/a

Jennifer Lawrence
4 noms | 1 win
DIE MY LOVE
(MUBI)

Though this didn't light festival audiences on fire, Lawrence is a huge star and they'll appreciate her stretching. Still the movie and discomfort around mental illness could well mean limited appeal.

noms:
Gotham,  Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a

Tier 3 - Long Shots

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Kate Hudson
1 nomination
SONG SUNG BLUE
(Focus)

She plays one half of a husband and wife Neil Diamond tribute band and looks adorable in the trailer. A Golden Globe Musical or Comedy nod seems like a slam dunk. Can that lead to unexpected traction?

noms:
Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Emma Mackey
never nominated
ELLA MCKAY
(20th Century)

She's in three films (see also Alpha and Hot Milk) so perhaps "Breakthrough" notices will arrive at the end of the year if she's strong in this mainstream enough. She's playing an idealistic young politician.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

June Squibb
1 nomination
ELEANOR THE GREAT
(SPC)

 It's exciting to see Squibb have a second leading role so soon after the first (Thelma) though the film and turn aren't as worthy this time. Still, the premise is engaging and she's always a delight. If she's a hit on Broadway during voting (Marjorie Prime) could she get an unexpected boost?

noms:
AARP 
wins:
n/a

Julia Roberts
4 noms | 1 win
AFTER THE HUNT
(Amazon)

noms:
AARP ,  Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Tribute

Laura Dern
3 noms | 1 win
IS THIS THING ON?
(Searchlight)

noms:
AARP 
wins:
n/a

Tier 4 - Other Possibilities. More Leading Women in 2025.

This year had less leading roles for women than we've become accustomed to. We're not happy about it!

Could a surprise (or not so surprising) Globe nomination revive their prospects?

• Dakota Johnson - Materialists
• Margot Robbie - Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Mainstream movies

• Julia Garner - Weapons
• Keke Palmer & SZA - One of Them Days   Spirit nominee /   Spirit nominee (Breakthrough),
• Sally Hawkins - Bring Her Back
• Sidney Sweeney - The Housemaid OR Christy

Too Indie for traction but maybe Independent Spirits or other citations?

• Alia Shawkat - Atropia
• Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby  Globes (drama) nominee,
• Kathleen Chalfant - Familiar Touch -   Spirit nominee,
• Margaret Qualley - Honey Don't!
• Molly Gordon - Oh, Hi!
• Liz Larsen - Baltimorons   Spirit nominee,
• Lucy Liu - Rosemead (Vertical) AARP Nominee