Tier 1 - Predictions

Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne are collecting the critics awards but Byrne is not fully "locked"... mostly because LOCKS are rare if your film isn't competitive in other categories. History is littered with people who won lots of critics awards but were left out at the last moment. Overall Best Actress still feels weirdly volatile with Emma & Amanda feeling both likely and easy to imagine as omissions simultaneously.

Jessie Buckley
1 nomination
HAMNET
(Focus)

Her star has been on the rise and they're already familiar. She's paired with a great director (Chloe Zhao) and it's a potentially meaty role as the grieving wife of Shakespeare

noms:
Gotham, CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
Atlanta, Michigan, NYFCO, PCC, San Diego, SEFCA, DC,

Renate Reinsve
never nominated
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

She broke out with Worst Person in the World and has been busy ever since. This reunion with Joachim Trier should be her ticket to the big show. Crossing fingers but also believing it is quite likely.

noms:
EFA, CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a

Rose Byrne
never nominated
IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU
(A24)

Reviews were ecstatic and she's still somehow, after all these years, an underappreciated actor (curiously despite so many people loving her work). Will the acting branch actually watch films that aren't Best Picture contenders this year? If they do she'll be in the lineup.

noms:
Gotham,   Spirit, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
Silver Bear Venice, NYFCC, NBR, LAFCA, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, San Diego, San Francisco, Toronto,
good PR:
Middleburg Trailblazer

Emma Stone
4 noms* | 2 wins
BUGONIA
(Focus)

noms:
CCA,  Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Kate Hudson

1 nomination
SONG SUNG BLUE
(Focus)

She plays one half of a husband and wife Neil Diamond tribute band and looks adorable in the trailer. The Globes came through but will the late to open release attract enough Academy members for a (mild) surprise nomination?

noms:
Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers...

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Chase Infiniti
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

In something of a surprise they're campaining her as Lead. Voters could balk and put her in supporting but she could also surprise here. Oscar loves a discovery and we know they tilt Best Picture whenever they have the chance.

noms:
Gotham Breakthrough, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
Atlanta (Breakthrough), Chicago (Most Promising), Indiana (Breakthrough), NYFCO (Breakthrough),

Jennifer Lawrence
4 noms | 1 win
DIE MY LOVE
(MUBI)

noms:
Gotham,  Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a

Cynthia Erivo
2 noms*
WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

Will they repeat the Wicked acting nods or feel that they've had their due? Oscar has not yet become like the Emmys in terms of actors. But if we see more franchises or two-parters nominated, the risk is there. The weak critical response to the film won't help (but won't necessarily hurt either).

noms:
Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Amanda Seyfried
1 nomination
THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE 
(Searchlight)

 Reviews for her performance are fantastic but the film, an original musical about a religious leader, is polarizing. She's been beating expectations for years now. Maybe the Academy should spring for a second nod!

noms:
Gotham, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

Tessa Thompson
never nominated
HEDDA
(Amazon)

She's deserving of showcases so everyone is loving this for her. Still Amazon isn't as good at the campaign game as other distributors. And not everyone loves this interpretation of the classic play.

noms:
Gotham,   Spirit, Globes (drama),
wins:
AAFCA,
good PR:
Gotham Tribute

Tier 3 - Long Shots

Tier 4 - Vote Siphoners

Better luck next year to these leading ladies, some of whom received awards season honors but aren't going to make it to a Best Actress nomination in the end...

• Dakota Johnson - Materialists
• Eva Victor - Sorry Baby Globes (drama) nominee,
• Julia Garner - Weapons
• June Squibb - Eleanor the Great AARP nominee 
• Kathleen Chalfant - Familiar Touch -   Spirit nominee,
• Keke Palmer & SZA - One of Them Days   Spirit nominee /   Spirit nominee (Breakthrough)
• Laura Dern - Is This Thing On? AARP nominee 
• Liz Larsen - Baltimorons   Spirit nominee
• Lucy Liu - Rosemead (Vertical) AARP Nominee 
• Margaret Qualley - Honey Don't!
• Molly Gordon - Oh, Hi!
• Sally Hawkins - Bring Her Back
• Sidney Sweeney - The Housemaid OR Christy

Jodie Foster
5 noms | 2 wins
VIE PRIVEE
(SPC)

Initially we thought a leading role in French would be easy awards bait book, but response has been muted. A qualifying only release didn't help but she's just great in the movie.

noms:
AARP 
wins:
n/a

Julia Roberts
4 noms | 1 win
AFTER THE HUNT
(Amazon)

noms:
AARP ,  Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Tribute