TIER 1 - PREDICTIONS PART 1 -BIG DEALS

These are the five films we're feeling best about in terms of awards prospects. At this writing (November 11) it feels like a three-film race for the top prize between a theatrical drama of art and loss, a masterful molotov cocktail satire, and a crowd-pleasing period sports drama. But there's a lot of time left for films to grow or fade across the board.

NOMS / WINS -- Are for Best Feature style prizes only
"GOOD PR" is about tributes that aren't actually competitive awards but still can be interpreted as win for the film as a whole (rather than a single performance or tech element) 

HAMNET

Chloe Zhao
(Focus)
NOV 27

Ecstatically received, the People's Choice at TIFF and based on a brilliant acclaimed novel about grief and art and directed by a previous winner? A done deal!

noms:
Gotham
wins:
People's Choice TIFF

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Paul Thomas Anderson
(Warner Bros)
SEPT 26

Reviews were ecstatic and it's meaty enough to maintain conversations for months (which you need unless you arrive late). Plus everyone is rooting for PTA to finally get his roses.

noms:
Gotham
wins:
n/a

MARTY SUPREME

Josh Safdie
(A24)
DEC 25

The least seen (to date) of the "top five" but buzz was loud and we've had a positive hunch for a year. At the very least a "ping pong epic" will be a neat novelty in terms of period sports dramas!

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

WICKED FOR GOOD

Jon M Chu
(Universal)
NOV 21

If the second half sticks the landing, expect another round of big nominations. But... will it? The second act of Wicked on stage is less satisfying than the first!

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

SINNERS
Ryan Coogler
(Warner Bros)
APRIL 18

It's the year's biggest original hit and the media will surely boost its profile again in year-end roundups. But it's still a vampire picture so we're not going to say "locked for muliple big nominations" quite yet.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a
Good PR:
Ensemble Tribute Gothams

TIER 2- PREDICTIONS PART 2. FILLING OUT THE TOP TEN

They all seem to have heat as we enter the final two months of the film year. 

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Joachim Trier
(Neon)
NOV 7

Looks like a sure player in Best International Feature but can it score big across the board? Time will tell but a November release should give it time to build.

noms:
n/a
wins:
Grand Prix Cannes

THE SECRET AGENT
Kleber Mendoca Filho
(Neon)
NOV 26

It appears to be taking the wind out of Sentimental Value's sails in terms of Oscar buzz. But we think they're both (tentatively) in.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

JAY KELLY

Noah Baumbach
(Netflix)
NOV 14

There's love for it but reactions are also mixed. Which is the same story as its Netflix sibling to the right on this chart. Will they both make it into the top category?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

FRANKENSTEIN 
Guillermo del Toro

(Netflix)
OCT 17

Del Toro got the love from festival audiences but the movie is a curious fast fade. Can his passion for the classic tale, its craft element, and general popularity keep this in the Picture mix?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Vanguard Tribute Gothams

TRAIN DREAMS

Clint Bentley
(Netflix)
NOV 7

Netflix has flashier movies to sell but if they score multiple Best Picture nominees, this could theoretically rise on passion votes. We shall see.

noms:
Gotham
wins:
n/a

TIER 3 - POTENTIAL SPOILERS

Any member of this quintet could rise but we have our doubts (at the moment of this writing) that they'll make it to the top of the Hollywood mountain in the final stretch. Still, any of them could.

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT

Jafar Panahi
(Neon)
OCT

How many international titles can find Best Picture placement this season? The Academy has been becoming more global but Palme d'or's don't always translate to Oscar gold.

noms:
n/a
wins:
Palme D'Or Cannes

BUGONIA

Yorgos Lanthimos
(Focus)
OCT 24 

Speaking of passion votes. Lanthimos is polarizing but he keeps people talking about his movies. Emma & Jesse's performances will also help keep it in the conversation.

noms:
Gotham
wins:
n/a

HOUSE OF DYNAMITE
Kathryn Bigelow
(Netflix)
OCT 10

Early buzz was deafening and then suddenly it had a lot of critics. The polarization wont' help in a crowded field especially when Netflix has other big titles.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

AVATAR FIRE AND ASH
James Cameron
(Disney)
DEC 19

Three films into a spectacle series may be when Oscar voters lose interest. But it's true that the first two were both Best Picture nominees.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

BLUE MOON

Richard Linklater
(Sony Pictures Classics)
OCT 17

If SPC can recreate their old campaign magic this intimate showbiz drama could find enough fans (especially in the acting branch) but it could well read too "small" for the BIG category

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

TIER 4 - WILD CARDS

If you squint you can actually "see" them as Best Picture nominees BUT precursor season will have to be kind AND audiences, media, industry, and critics (preferrably all four) would have to be unexpectedly enthusiastic.

DEAD MAN'S WIRE
Gus Van Sant
(Row K Ent)
DATE TBA

Early word is that Van Sant has made his best film in many years. Will new distributor Row K launch a strong Oscar campaign - will it even be eligible with the new release rules?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

WAKE UP DEAD MAN
Rian Johnson
(Netflix)
NOV 26

No Knives Out movie has managed to escape Screenplay only territory. Will the third time be the charm?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

SONG SUNG BLUE
Craig Brewer
(Focus)
DEC 25 

Could it be a late year surprise? The trailer looks fun and if Kate & Hugh have great chemistry that will certainly help.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

F1 THE MOVIE

Joseph Kosinski
(Warner Bros)
JUNE 27

Many years need a 'dad' movie. But this feels more like a technical player than a Best Picture nominee. Still, weirder and lower quality nominations have happened!

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

 ELLA MCCAY
James L Brooks
(20th Century)
DEC 12

It's been a long looong time since Brooks made a movie. If it's a sleeper hit, maybe voters will be excited about it?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

 TIER 5 - Other Films That Received "Best Picture" Style Citations This Film Year

• Dreams - Berlinale Golden Bear
• East of Wall - Gotham Nominee
• Father Mother Sister Brother - Venice Golden Lion
• Familiar Touch - Gotham Nominee
• If I had Legs I'd Kick You- Gotham Nominee
• Lurker - Gotham Nominee
• Sorry, Baby - Gotham Nominee
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Gotham Nominee
• The Voice of Hind Rajab - Jury Prize Venice

MOVIES BY DISTRIBUTOR

* unlikely to be eligible for best picture even if it's eligible elsewhere due to release strategory and theatrical distribution rules for the top category.

A24

• Bring Her Back ()
• Eddington (Aster)
• Eternity ()
• Friendship ()
• If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (Bronstein)
• The Legend of Ochi
• Materialists (Song)
• Marty Supreme
  (Safdie) 

A24 Continued...

• Opus ()
• Pillion * (Lighton)
• Smashing Machine (Safdie)
• Sorry Baby (Victor)

Amazon MGM

• After the Hunt (Guadagnino)
• Hedda (DaCosta)
• Preparation for the Next Life ()

Apple TV+

• Highest 2 Lowest (Lee)
• The Lost Bus (Greengrass)
• Outcome (Hill)

BlackBear Pictures

• Christy (Michod)

Bleecker Street

• The Friend ()
• Rebuilding (Walker-Silverman)
• Relay (Mackenzie)
• Spinal Tap II The End Continues
• The Wedding Banquet (Ahn)

Disney

• Avatar Fire and Ash (Cameron)
• Elio (Pixar Animation)
• Fantastic Four (Shakman)
• Freakier Friday ()
• Thunderbolts* ()
• Tron Ares (Rønning)
• Zootopia 2 (Disney Animation)

Focus Features

• Anemone (Day-Lewis)
• Ballad of Wallis Island (Griffiths)
• Bugonia (Lanthimos)
• Downton Abbey 3
• Hamnet (Zhao)
• Honey Don't (Coen)
• Phoenician Scheme (Anderson)
• Song Sung Blue (Brewer)

Independent Film Company (formerly IFC)

• Baltimorons (Duplass)
• Dangerous Animals
• Good Boy (Leonberg)
• Hot Milk (Lenkiewicz)
• Tornado (Maclean)

Janus Films / Sideshow

• The Love That Remains (Palmason)
• Magellan (Diaz)
• Peter Hujar's Day (Sachs)
• Resurrection (Bi Gan)

Lionsgate / Roadside

• Everything  is Going to be Great (Baird)
• Fairlyland (Durham)
• Good Fortune (Ansari)
• The Housemaid (Feig)
• Hurry Up Tomorrow (Shults)
• Kiss of the Spider-Woman (Condon)
• The Long Walk (Lawrence)
• Now You see Me... (Fleischer)
• Twinless (Sweeney)

Magnolia

• Plainclothes (Emmi)
• Rabbit Trap ()
• Sister Midnight
• 40 Acres
• Folktales (DOC)

MUBI

• Die My Love (Ramsay)
• Father Mother Sister Brother (Jarmusch)
• History of Sound (Hermanus)
• Lurker (Russell)
• Mastermind (Reichardt)
• Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

NEON

• Alpha * (Ducournau)
• Arco (animated)
• It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)
• Life of Chuck (Flanagan)
• No Other Choice (Park)
• Sentimental Value (Trier)
• The Secret Agent (Filho)
• Sirat * (Laxe)
• Splitsville (covino)

Netflix

• Ballad of a Small Player (Berger)
• House of Dynamite (Bigelow)
• In Your Dreams (animated)
• Jay Kelly (Baumbach)
• KPop Demon Hunters (animated)
• Lefthanded Girl (Netflix)
• Nouvelle Vague (Linklater)
• Train Dreams (Bentley)
• Twits (animation)
• Wake Up Dead Man (Johnson)

Paramount

• Mission Impossible
• Novocaine
• Roofman (Cianfrance)
• Running Man (Wright)
• Spongebob Squarepants (animated)

Row K Entertaiment

• Dead Man's Wire * (Van Sant)

=

Searchlight

• Is This Thing On? (Cooper)
• Rental Family (Hikari)
• The Roses (Roach)

Twentieth Century

• Deliver Me From Nowhere (Cooper)

Sony

• 28 Years Later (Boyle)
• Anaconda ()
• Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Kogonada)
• Caught Stealing (Aronofsky)
• Paddington in Peru ()

Sony Pictures Classics

• Blue Moon (Linkater)
• The Choral (Hytner)
• Don't Lets Go to the Dog Tonight (Davidtz)
• Eleanor the Great (Johansson)
• Magnificent Life * (Chomet)
• Oh, Hi! (Brooks)
• The Presidents Cake * (Hadi)
• Scarlet (animated)
• Vie Privee * (Zlotowski)

Universal

• Black Bag (Soderbergh)
• How to Train Your Dragon (DeBlois)
• Jurassic World Rebirth (Edwards)
• Megan 2.0 (Johnstone)
• Wicked For Good (Chu)

Vertical

• Rosemead (Lin) 

• Alto Knights
• Conjuring Last Rites ()
• F1 (Kosinski)
• Mickey 17 (Bong)
• Minecraft Movie (Hess)
• One Battle After Another (Anderson)
• Sinners (Coogler)
• Superman (Gunn)
• Weapons (Cregger)