TIER 1 - The Biggest Deals

These are the five films we're feeling best about (mostly) sight unseen. Are you also confident that they'll be major players?

HAMNET

Chloe Zhao
(Focus)
NOV 27

Ecstatically received and based on a brilliant acclaimed novel about grief and art and directed by a previous winner? A done deal!

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Paul Thomas Anderson
(Warner Bros)
SEPT 26

Critical buzz is growing and if audiences respond it could be a major player.

WICKED FOR GOOD

Jon M Chu
(Universal)
NOV 21

If the second half sticks the landing, expect another round of big nominations.

SINNERS
Ryan Coogler
(Warner Bros)
APRIL 18

It's the year's biggest original hit and the media will surely boost its profile again in year-end roundups, despite a non-Oscary release date.

HOUSE OF DYNAMITE
Kathryn Bigelow
(Netflix)
OCT 10

Early buzz is loud but will awards bodies be in the movie for politically terrifying drama in this of all years? 

TIER 2- Also Likely to be Significant Players

Though it's too early to know how far they'll soar or whether they'll be discarded from lukewarm reviews or lack of interest... or even an abrupt move to 2026

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Joachim Trier
(Neon)
NOV 7

Looks like a sure player in Best International Feature but can it score big across the board? Time will tell but a November release should give it time to build.

MARTY SUPREME

Josh Safdie
(A24)
DEC 25

Sight unseen we're still betting itll be a player but it'll be one of the last films to premiere

FRANKENSTEIN 
Guillermo del Toro

(Netflix)
OCT 17

Del Toro got the love from festival audiences. Can his adaptation of this classic tale hold voters rapt?

TRAIN DREAMS

Clint Bentley
(Netflix)
NOV 7

Netflix has flashier movies to sell but if they score multiple Best Picture nominees, this could rise on passion votes. We shall see.

BUGONIA

Yorgos Lanthimos
(Focus)
OCT 24 

Speaking of passion votes. Lanthimos is often polarizing but he keeps people talking about his movies. Emma & Jesse's performances will keep it in the conversation.

TIER 3 - POTENTIAL SPOILERS

Though the race often narrows down to just 11 or 12 films it's way too early for that shallow of a pool. We shall see.

BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER
Edward Berger
(Netflix)
OCT 15

Can lighting strike thrice after All Quiet and Conclave? 

BLUE MOON

Richard Linklater
(Sony Pictures Classics)
OCT 17

If SPC can recreate their old campaign magic this intimate showbiz drama could find enough fans.

JAY KELLY

Noah Baumbach
(Netflix)
NOV 14

There's love for it but reactions are also mixed. Netflix can't have half the nominees so somethings got to underperform. Will it be this one? 

THE SMASHING MACHINE
(Benny Safdie
(A24)
OCT 3

Safdie's fighting drama seems more likely to hit with the actors branch than land in Best Picture but that director win in Venice could be telling of more...

SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
Scott Cooper
(20th Century)
OCT 24

Too soon after the Bob Dylan biopic or just right since Oscar never tires of biopics (especially music biopics) 

TIER 4 - Other Spoilers and Wild Cards.

Will Any of These Films Catch On in Terms of Awards? Which films that we haven't yet even heard of explode at a fall film festival? 

THE SECRET AGENT
Kleber Mendoca Filho
(Neon)
NOV 26

Could it give Sentimental Value a run for Best International Feature? Can they both score Best Picture nods

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
Jafar Panahi
(Neon)
OCT 15

Festival juries have long obsessed over Panahi. Will the Academy notice after that Palme D'Or? 

F1 THE MOVIE

Joseph Kosinski
(Warner Bros)
JUNE 27

Many years need a 'dad' movie. But this feels more like a technical player than a Best Picture nominee.

DEAD MAN'S WIRE
Gus Van Sant
(Row K Ent)
DATE TBA

Early word is that Van Sant has made his best film in many years. Will new distributor Row K launch a strong Oscar campaign. It's their first release!

THE LOST BUS

Paul Greengrass
(Apple TV+)
SEPT 19

Tough to say how this one will be received but it could speak to people. Greengrass can make muscular pictures. Is this one of them? 

WAKE UP DEAD MAN
Rian Johnson
(Netflix)
NOV 26

No Knives Out movie has managed to escape Screenplay only territory. Will. third time be the charm?

AVATAR FIRE AND ASH
James Cameron
(Disney)
DEC 19

Three films into a spectacle series may be when Oscar voters lose interest.

RENTAL FAMILY
Hikari
(Searchlight)
NOV 21

Some people love it. Others will find it too sentimental. Where will voters fall in that spectrum?

SONG SUNG BLUE
Craig Brewer
(Focus)
DEC 25 

Could it be a late year surprise? The trailer looks fun and if Kate & Hugh have great chemistry that will certainly help.

 ELLA MCKAY
James L Brooks
(20th Century)
DEC 12

It's been a long looong time since Brooks made a movie. Will the Academy be interested?

MOVIES BY DISTRIBUTOR

A24

• Bring Her Back ()
• Eddington (Aster)
• Eternity ()
• Friendship ()
• If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (Bronstein)
• The Legend of Ochi
• Materialists (Song)
• Marty Supreme
  (Safdie) 

A24 Continued...

• Opus ()
• Smashing Machine (Safdie)
• Sorry Baby (Victor)

PROBABLY 2026 NOW

• Mother Mary (Lowery)
• Pillion (Lighton)

Amazon MGM

• After the Hunt (Guadagnino)
• Hedda (DaCosta)
• Preparation for the Next Life ()

Apple TV+

• Highest 2 Lowest (Lee)
• The Lost Bus (Greengrass)
• Outcome (Hill)

BlackBear Pictures

• Christy (Michod)

Bleecker Street

• The Friend ()
• Rebuilding (Walker-Silverman)
• Relay (Mackenzie)
• Spinal Tap II The End Continues
• The Wedding Banquet (Ahn)

Disney

• Avatar Fire and Ash (Cameron)
• Elio (Pixar Animation)
• Fantastic Four (Shakman)
• Freakier Friday ()
• Thunderbolts* ()
• Tron Ares (Rønning)
• Zootopia 2 (Disney Animation)

Focus Features

• Anemone (Day-Lewis)
• Ballad of Wallis Island (Griffiths)
• Bugonia (Lanthimos)
• Downton Abbey 3
• Hamnet (Zhao)
• Honey Don't (Coen)
• Phoenician Scheme (Anderson)
• Song Sung Blue (Brewer)

Independent Film Company (formerly IFC)

• Baltimorons (Duplass)
• Dangerous Animals
• Good Boy (Leonberg)
• Hot Milk (Lenkiewicz)
• Tornado (Maclean)

Janus Films / Sideshow

• The Love That Remains (Palmason)
• Magellan (Diaz)
• Peter Hujar's Day (Sachs)
• Resurrection (Bi Gan)

Lionsgate / Roadside

• Everything  is Going to be Great (Baird)
• Fairlyland (Durham)
• Good Fortune (Ansari)
• The Housemaid (Feig)
• Hurry Up Tomorrow (Shults)
• Kiss of the Spider-Woman (Condon)
• The Long Walk (Lawrence)
• Now You see Me... (Fleischer)
• Twinless (Sweeney)

Magnolia

• Plainclothes (Emmi)
• Rabbit Trap ()
• Sister Midnight
• 40 Acres
• Folktales (DOC)

MUBI

• Die My Love (Ramsay)
• Father Mother Sister Brother (Jarmusch)
• History of Sound (Hermanus)
• Lurker (Russell)
• Mastermind (Reichardt)
• Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

NEON

• Alpha (Ducournau)
• Arco (animated)
• It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)
• Life of Chuck (Flanagan)
• No Other Choice (Park)
• Sentimental Value (Trier)
• The Secret Agent (Filho)
• Sirat (Laxe)
• Splitsville (covino)
• Together

Netflix

• Ballad of a Small Player (Berger)
• House of Dynamite (Bigelow)
• In Your Dreams (animated)
• Jay Kelly (Baumbach)
• KPop Demon Hunters (animated)
• Lefthanded Girl (Netflix)
• Nouvelle Vague (Linklater)
• Train Dreams (Bentley)
• Twits (animation)
• Wake Up Dead Man (Johnson)

Paramount

• Mission Impossible
• Novocaine
• Roofman (Cianfrance)
• Running Man (Wright)
• Spongebob Squarepants (animated)

Row K Entertaiment

• Dead Man's Wire (Van Sant)

=

Searchlight

• Is This Thing On? (Cooper)
• Rental Family (Hikari)
• The Roses (Roach)

PROBABLY 2026 NOW

• In the Blink of an Eye

Sony

• 28 Years Later (Boyle)
• Anaconda ()
• Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Kogonada)
• Caught Stealing (Aronofsky)
• Paddington in Peru ()

Sony Pictures Classics

• Blue Moon (Linkater)
• The Choral (Hytner)
• Don't Lets Go to the Dog Tonight (Davidtz)
• Eleanor the Great (Johansson)
• Magnificent Life (Chomet)
• Oh, Hi! (Brooks)
• The Presidents Cake (Hadi)
• Scarlet (animated)
• Vie Privee (Zlotowski)

Universal

• Black Bag (Soderbergh)
• How to Train Your Dragon (DeBlois)
• Jurassic World Rebirth (Edwards)
• Megan 2.0 (Johnstone)
• Wicked For Good (Chu)

Vertical

• Rosemead (Lin) 

• Alto Knights
• Conjuring Last Rites ()
• F1 (Kosinski)
• Mickey 17 (Bong)
• Minecraft Movie (Hess)
• One Battle After Another (Anderson)
• Sinners (Coogler)
• Superman (Gunn)
• Weapons (Cregger)

2025 Festival Hits (or Buzzy even if disliked) Without US Distribution Yet... so maybe 2026?

• An Affair (Despleschin)
• Charliebird (Ewing) -tribeca
• Couture (Winocur) -tiff
• DJ Ahmet (Unkovski) -sundance
• Dragonfly (Williams) - sundance
• In the Hand of Dante (Schnabel)  -venice