Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp Actress | Director
Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film
97th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2024, 2025 Ceremony: March 2
For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog
AND THE NOMINEES ARE...
stats reflect producing nominations in Best Picture only. * = they have stats in other categories too
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ANORA previous wins: Cannes Palme d'Or, LAFCA, and regional critics awards
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THE BRUTALIST Brady Corbet previous wins: NYFCC, Golden Globe Drama, and several regional critics awards
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A COMPLETE UNKNOWN James Mangold synopsis: A drama doubling as a pseudo concert film in which we meet the young "Bobby Dylan" as he meets his idols and then surpasses them in fame, going electric just when they need him to promote "folk" music. previous wins: none
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CONCLAVE synopsis: After a Pope's unexpected death, Cardinals gather to elect his successor. Everyone has an agenda and some of them have secrets, too. previous wins: mostly ensemble prizes |
DUNE PART TWO Denis Villeneuve) synopsis: In this sequel Paul Atreides becomes a Messiah of sorts to the Freemen army in their struggle against the ruling family over control of their homeland and is precious resources previous wins: a few regional critics awards
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EMILIA PEREZ Synopsis: A musical drama about a violent cartel boss reinventing her life as a charitable trans woman previous wins: Cannes Jury Prize, EFA, and Golden Globe (Comedy or Musical)
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I'M STILL HERE Walter Salles Synopsis: A widow seeks information and justice when her husband is disappeared by the fascist government in 1970s Brazil previous wins: international feature awards only
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THE NICKEL BOYS Synopsis: A man recalls his teenager years as an unwilling student in a violent, racist, "reform" school. previous wins: NSFC, and a couple of critics group awards
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THE SUBSTANCE Coralie Fargeat Synopsis: A celebrity seeks a black market drug to become young and "desirable" again... with terrifying results previous wins: Cannes screenplay, 1 regional critics award |
WICKED Jon M Chu Synopsis: A prequel and riff on The Wizard of Oz, as the Good Witch of the North and the Wicked Witch of the West meet at university and become unexpected friends. But life in Oz is not as rosy as it seems, especially for those who are "different" previous wins: NBR and a couple of critics awards |
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WHAT SHOULD WIN? VOTE DAILY |
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WHAT WAS LEFT OUT? |
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The precursors suggested that A Real Pain, September 5, and Sing Sing all had a decent shot at making the top ten and some optimists hoped for All That We Imagine As Light. But it wasn't to be They were crowded out by rising late year releases in critical darling Nickel Boys and the international hit I'm Still Here... the latter being the only legitimate surprise this year. |
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WHAT WILL WIN? |
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While Emilia Perez leads by a strong margin (13 nominations is... A LOT) we hold out hope that The Brutalist, Anora, Wicked, or Conclave (which are all much better films) can gain unexpected momentum to defeat it. That said, it's probably Emilia Perez since the industry, in particular, is obsessed. It's another reminder that Oscar voters aren't critics. Among Oscar's ten favourites this season, Emilia Perez has the lowest RT and Metacritic scores. |
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WHAT SHOULD WIN? NATHANIEL'S PICK |
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Anora or The Brutalist would make excellent winners for disparate reasons. |
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| Longest to Shortest | RT / MetaCritis Scores | Do they pass the Bechdel Test? | MPAA Ratings | Nathaniel's Preference |
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So long they're cut up into parts.... keepin' it tight! |
ecstatic response widely liked well reviewed but more divisive |
Superbly I think so... but not with flying colors Definitely not. |
Hard R Soft R PG-13 PG... which is rare for best pics now |
(ordered by tiers) get ready for the judgement day |
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| Ranked by Horniness | Most likely to become a Broadway musical | Death Count | Ordered by US Release Date | Ranked by Global Box Office |
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"Do you think I'm a nasty girl?" "DTF" "Are you that somebody?" "We don't have to take our clothes off" "No"
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via time machine... the year is 2003 Wicked small lift to get there... Emilia Perez Complete Unknown they often try, however ill-judged the attempt I'm still Here Conclave Anora
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Haunted by massacres prior to opening credits Perpetual warfare so lots one possibly but far offscreen 'the little death' only but frequently |
March September Oct Nov Dec Only Technically 2024 (Qualifier) |
🔺 = still collecting coin 1 🔺 Wicked ($718) 2 Dune Part Two ($714) 3 Conclave ($84) 4 The Substance ($76) 5 🔺 A Complete Unknown ($75) 6 Anora ($33) 7 🔺 I'm Still Here ($15) 8 Emilia Perez ($13) 9 🔺The Brutalist ($12) 10 🔺 Nickel Boys ($1) |