TIER 1 - PREDICTIONS PART 1. THE TOP DOGS

These are the five films we're feeling best about in terms of awards prospects. While Hamnet no longer feel like a threat to the win, One Battle After Another and Sinners are rampaging through the precursors. Perhaps only a late surge from Marty Supreme (possible if unlikely) could interfere with one of them winning the top prize.

NOMS / WINS -- Are for Best Feature style prizes only
"GOOD PR" is about tributes that aren't actually competitive awards but still can be interpreted as win for the film as a whole (rather than a single performance or tech element) 

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Paul Thomas Anderson
(Warner Bros)
SEPT 26

Reviews were ecstatic and as we predicted it was meaty enough to maintain conversations for months with no signs of people losing interest. P.T. Anderson will surely (FINALLY) get his Oscar statuette in one way or another.

noms:
Gotham, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
Gotham, NYFCC, LAFCA, Atlanta, NBR, Chicago, Dallas, NYFCO, PCC, Phoenix, San Francisco, SEFCA, Toronto,

SINNERS
Ryan Coogler
(Warner Bros)
APRIL 18

It's the year's biggest original hit and precursors have all been kind. But it's still a vampire picture so we wonder if it's truly competitive for the win.

noms:
CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
AAFCA, Boston, Indiana, Michigan, San Diego, DC,
Good PR:
Ensemble Tribute Gothams

MARTY SUPREME

Josh Safdie
(A24)
DEC 25

The least seen (to date) of the "top five" but buzz was loud and we've had a positive hunch for a year. At the very least a "ping pong epic" will be a neat novelty in terms of period sports dramas!

noms:
CCA,  Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

HAMNET

Chloe Zhao
(Focus)
NOV 27

Ecstatically received, the People's Choice at TIFF and based on a brilliant acclaimed novel about grief and art and directed by a previous winner? A done deal!

noms:
Gotham, CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
People's Choice TIFF

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Joachim Trier
(Neon)
NOV 7

Looks like a sure player in Best International Feature but can it score big across the board? Time will tell but a November release should give it time to build.

noms:
EFA, CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
Grand Prix Cannes

TIER 2- FILLING OUT THE TOP TEN

We can't claim EIGHT locks given that surprises are possible. Still at this late juncture, only Bugonia and Wicked for Good -- both with dwindling heat -- appear weak enough to fall. But if they do, who benefits?

FRANKENSTEIN 
Guillermo del Toro

(Netflix)
OCT 17

While this pundit can't personally attest to why people love it so -- they do! Del Toro is still popular with voters and it's likely to score quite a few nominations. If even Nightmare Alley (which met with far less enthusiasm upon release) could slip in, this should have no trouble.

noms:
CCA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
PCC (Sci-Fi film),
good PR:
Vanguard Tribute Gothams

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT

Jafar Panahi
(Neon)
OCT 15

The Academy has been becoming more global. The Palme D'or's don't always translate to Oscar gold but NEON pushed this well and it feels timely and important.

noms:
EFA,  Globes (drama),
wins:
Palme D'Or Cannes

TRAIN DREAMS

Clint Bentley
(Netflix)
NOV 7

Netflix had flashier movies to sell but few were as passionately received as this quiet moving drama about a logger and his sorrow at lives lost.

noms:
Gotham,  Spirit, CCA, 
wins:
n/a

BUGONIA

Yorgos Lanthimos
(Focus)
OCT 24 

Speaking of passion votes. Lanthimos is polarizing but there's also no one else making movies like him. His sizeable fan base and electric performances could help it land in the top category.

noms:
Gotham, CCA,  Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

WICKED FOR GOOD

Jon M Chu
(Universal)
NOV 21

As we feared the second half didn't stick the landing... and left us feeling again like it should have just been one film. But default voting (we voted for it last time!) and its craft and actress appeal will still probably keep it in Best Picture

noms:
CCA, 
wins:
n/a

TIER 3 - POTENTIAL SPOILERS

Any member of this quintet could rise but we have our doubts (at the moment of this writing) that they'll make it to the top of the Hollywood mountain in the final stretch. Still, any of them could.

THE SECRET AGENT
Kleber Mendoca Filho
(Neon)
NOV 26

While it was never able to surpass the "international" buzz of Sentimental Value or It Was Just An Accident, it could still make the top category... which would make this a very internationally-minded year.

noms:
 Globes (drama),
wins:
n/a

WEAPONS

Zach Cregger
(Warner Bros)
AUG 8

While Oscar voters are generally not fans of horror, it's hard to miss that it had moviegoers excited in a way that more traditional Oscar fare couldn't manage in 2025.

noms:
 Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

JAY KELLY

Noah Baumbach
(Netflix)
NOV 14

Reactions are mixed. And Netflix has much stronger contenders in Frankenstein & Train Dreams... maybe even Nouvelle Vague?

noms:
CCA, 
wins:
n/a

BLUE MOON

Richard Linklater
(Sony Pictures Classics)
OCT 17

While it's probably too "small" for the top category (in Oscar's traditional eyes) if enough acting branch members love it, it could surprise.

noms:
 Globes (com),
wins:
n/a

F1 THE MOVIE

Joseph Kosinski
(Warner Bros)
JUNE 27

Many years need a 'dad' movie. While it's more likely in craft categories than the big one weirder and lower quality nominations have happened. Better an original title than, say, Wicked For Good, coasting on default 'we voted for it last time!' votes, you know?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

TIER 4 - WILD CARDS

If you squint you can actually "see" them as Best Picture nominees BUT precursor season will have to be kind AND audiences, media, industry, and critics (preferrably all four) would have to be unexpectedly enthusiastic.

 TIER 4 - Long Shots & Extreme Longshots (Includes All Films that received "Best Picture" Style Citations for the 2025 Film Year). Films in Bold feel strongest in terms of Oscar chances at this writing

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Dead Man's Wire
• Dreams- Berlinale Golden Bear
• East of Wall - Gotham Nominee
• Father Mother Sister Brother - Venice Golden Lion
• Familiar Touch - Gotham Nominee
• House of Dynamite -
• If I had Legs I'd Kick You- Gotham Nominee
• The Life of Chuck
• Lurker - Gotham Nominee
• No Other Choice - Globe (Comedy) Nominee
• Nouvelle Vague - Globe (Comedy) Nominee
• Peter Hujar's Day - Spirit Nominee 
• The Plague - Spirit Nominee
• Sirat -
• Song Sung Blue
• Sorry, Baby - Gotham & Spirit Nominee
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Gotham Nominee
• Twinless - Spirit Nominee
• The Voice of Hind Rajab - (Tunis- Jury Prize Venice, EFA Nominee
• Wake Up Dead Man