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98th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2025. CEREMONY: 2026
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

SCROLL DOWN FOR BRAND NEW CATEGORY - CASTING!

 

BEST DIRECTOR - predictions as of September 14th

TIER 1- Predictions

Stats reflect Directing category only!
* = nominated or won in other categories

Chloé Zhao

(China)
43 yrs old | 5th film | 1 nom | 1 win
HAMNET
(Focus)

Likely to become only the second woman to receive a second Best Director nomination.

P.T. Anderson

55 yrs old | 10th film | 3 noms*
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)


With eleven nominations to his name (multiple categories) when will it be "his year"

Ryan Coogler
39 yrs old | 5th film | never nominated*
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

He's in a Chris Nolan situation pre-Dunkirk (huge hits and Best Picture nominees) but still no Director nod. Will this be the one?

Joachim Trier
51 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated*
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

I worry this is wishful thinking as a fan for his whole career. On the other hand reviews have been marvelous and it nearly took the Palme. 

Kathryn Bigelow
73 yrs old | 11th film | 1 nom | 1 win
A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE
(Netflix)

Wouldn't it be something if both Chloe AND Kathryn landed second nods in the same year? Looks like a real comeback for Bigelow regardless.

 

TIER 2 - Also potentially in the running

Josh Safdie
(US)
41 yrs old | 7th film | never nominated
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

Wouldn't it be something to have two brothers nominated for separate films? 

 

Benny Safdie

(US)
39 yrs old | 5th film | never nominated
THE SMASHING MACHINE
(A24)

He won Best Director at Venice. Will the Directing branch feel the same?  

 

Guillermo Del Toro
(Mexico)
60 yrs old | 13th film | 1 nom* | 1 win*
FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

He's well loved in the industry and they'll surely feel his passion for the project. Will that be enough

Clint Bentley

(US)
40 yrs old | 2nd film | never nominated*
TRAIN DREAMS
(Netflix)

After screenplay nominations will he ascend to Best Director contention?

Jafar Panahi

(Iran)
65 yrs old | 11th film | never nominated
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
(Neon)

If France doesn't submit it in Best International will they find another way to honor him (and his career)

TIER 3 - TEN LONGER SHOTS - BUT DON'T COUNT THEM OUT JUST YET. WE STILL HAVE FOUR MONTHS TO GO...

Yorgos Lanthimos

(Greece)
51 yrs old | 10th film | 2 noms*
BUGONIA
(Focus)

The directing branch likes him. But you can't be nominated every time. 

Edward Berger

(Switzerland/Austria)
55 yrs old | 7th film | never nominated*
BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER
(Netflix)

If he scores a third Best Picture nomination the lack of a Director nod will start to sting.

Jon M Chu
45 yrs old | 9th film | never nominated
WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

If he someone betters the first film, he could certainly surprise but usually they care less the second time.

Kleber Mendoca Filho

(Brazil)
56 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated
THE SECRET AGENT
(Neon)

IF it's an international sort of year he'd be a great choice.

Noah Baumbach

(US)
55 yrs old | 13th film | never nominated*
JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

Feels more likely to score in screenplay and for performances.

 

Gus Van Sant

(US)
.... yrs old | ...th film | nominated
DEAD MAN'S WIRE
(Row K Entertainment)

If he gets the full comeback treatment from the media, watch out.

Richard Linklater
(US)
64 yrs old | 22nd film | 1 nom*
NOUVELLE VAGUE
(Netflix)

Will voters wanted to honor his career. Movies about movies sometimes impress them.

Scott Cooper
(US)
55 yrs old | 7th film  never nominated
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
(20th Century)

Directors of music biopics often miss the nomination. We shall see.

Park Chan Wook
(South Korea)
62 yrs old | 14th film | never nominated
NO OTHER CHOICE
(Neon)

It has strong buzz but what to make of it coming up emptyhanded in Venice?

Joseph Kosinski

(US)
51 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated
F1 The Movie
(Warner Bros)

If Kosinski keeps up these hit star vehicles it might eventually be his turn.

 

TIER 4 - OTHER DIRECTORS OF 2025 FILMS. ALPHA ORDER

(PREVIOUS NOMINEES IN THIS CATEGORY) 

  • Bill Condon - Kiss of the Spider Woman
  • Bong Joon-ho - Mickey 17
  • Darren Aronofsky - Caught Stealing
  • Gus Van Sant - Dead Man's Wire
  • James Cameron - Avatar Fire and Ash
  • James L Brooks - Ella McCay
  • Paul Greengrass - The Lost Bus
  • Richard Linklater - Blue Moon
  • Spike Lee - Highest 2 Lowest
  • Wes Anderson - The Phoenician Scheme

(NEVER NOMINATED FOR DIRECTING... YET) 

  • Ari Aster - Eddington
  • Bradley Cooper - Is This Thing On?
  • Celine Song - Materialists
  • Craig Brewer - Song Sung Blue
  • Edgar Wright - Running Man
  • Embeth Davidtz - Don't Let's Go To the Dogs Tonight
  • Hikari - Rental Family
  • Kelly Reichardt -Mastermind
  • Kogonada - Big Bold Beautiful Journey
  • Luca Guadagnino - After the Hunt
  • Mike Flanagan - Life of Chuck
  • Mona Fastvold - The Testament of Ann Lee
  • Rian Johnson - Wake Up Dead Man

 

 

 

BEST CASTING Predictions as of Sept 14th
(first new Oscar category in ages)

Exciting as we have no precedent, so no idea of what their patterns will be like. But it's probably safe to safe they'll lean towards Best Pictures as most categories do.

TIER 1- Predictions

Francine Maisler
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

As the year's biggest original non-franchise hit, with underrewarded actors it seems like a slam dunk

Nina Gold
HAMNET
(Focus)

 If Oscar responds in a big way to the British cast of this Shakespeare and Family grief drama

 

Cassandra Kulukundis

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

If they appreciate the deep bench diversity of undervalued players, discoveries, and major stars.

Mary Vernieu

WAKE UP DEAD MAN
(Netflix)

 If they take the whole franchise into account, a nomination here  seems very very likely.

 

Nina Gold & Douglas Aibel
JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

 If they look the central pairing (Clooney & Sandler) and the cast supporting them

 

Tier 2 - Also seem likely - we have no history of this category to predict from!

Jennifer Venditti

MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

We don't know what they'll looking for (no precedent for this category) so we're guessing Best Picture players

 

Susanne Scheel
A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE
(Netflix)

  If this award doubles as Best Ensemble, watch out. 

 

Jennifer Venditti

THE SMASHING MACHINE
(A24)

 If they like the central reunion but in a different context than usual

 

Robin D Cook

FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

This feels less likely than Best Picture heat implies if only because it's genre and people are weird about honoring acting (which this sort of does) with genre pieces.

Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey

WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

 

Will definitely place if they include the first film in their thinking as they vote.

Tier 3 - Longshots? Exciting Prospects?, Wild Cards?

Avy Kaufman & Yngvill Kolset Haga

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

 We don't yet know how open this category will be to international casting agents. But let's say they are...

 

Kathy Campbell
DEAD MAN'S WIRE
(Row K Entertainment)

If Row K puts up a great Oscar campaign.

 

Francine Maisler

DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
(20th Century)

 If they preference biopics in this category, and they might, since they do elsewhere.

 

Nina Gold & Martin Ware

BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER
(Netflix)

If it has more Best Picture heat than we're anticipating.

Francine Maisler
THE LOST BUS
(Apple TV+)

Francine Maisler sure stays busy. But she can't win all the nominations in the category.

Tier 4 - Other Possibilities

Again, since the category has never existed we're not sure what to expect. Will it be treated as a "Best Ensemble" award or will the casting directors really think through their ballots?

  • After the Hunt -  Jessica Roane
  • Bugonia - Jennifer Venditti
  • Caught Stealing- Mary Vernieu
  • Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight - Nicholas Campbell & Jessica Wolhulter
  • Ella McCay - Francine Maisler
  • F1 The Movie - Lucy Bevan & Emily Brockmann
  • How to Train Your Dragon - Lucy Bevan
  • Kiss of the Spider Woman - Adam Caldwell & Tiffany Little Canfield
  • The Life of Chuck - Anne McCarthy, Morgan Robbins, Kellie Roy
  • Materialists - Douglas Aibel... if they recognize how many non-star roles it had to cast well.
  • Mickey 17 - Francine Maisler
  • The Phoenician Scheme - Douglas Aibel
  • Song Sung Blue - Lindsay Graham & Guy Wernick
  • The Testament of Ann Lee - Isabella Odoffin