BEST DIRECTOR

TIER 1- Predictions

Stats reflect Directing category only!
* = nominated or won in other categories

P.T. Anderson

55 yrs old | 10th film | 3 noms*
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

With eleven nominations to his name (multiple categories) it is looking like it is finally "his year".

noms:
CCA,  Globes,
wins: LAFCA,
Atlanta, NBR, Chicago, Dallas, Indiana, PCC, San Francisco, Toronto,

Ryan Coogler
39 yrs old | 5th film | never nominated*
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

In a Chris Nolan pre-Dunkirk situation (huge hits and Best Pic nominees but no Director nod). But unlike Nolan, it looks like he will be in without having to go the traditional Oscar fare route!

noms:
CCA, Globes,
wins:
AAFCA, Boston, Michigan, NYFCO, San Diego, SEFCA, DC,

Josh Safdie
41 yrs old | 7th film | never nominated
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

This is looking like his exhilarating breakthrough. But given that he's fighting with Trier, Panahi, Zhao, and Del Toro for only three spots, someone will have to be "snubbed". Was the Globe miss telling or a mere blip?

noms:
CCA, 
wins:
n/a

 Joachim Trier
51 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated*
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Reviews are marvelous and the film is very likely placing in Best Picture. But he's not quite locked. He'll probably need the DGA nomination to secure his spot.

noms:
EFA, CCA, Globes,
wins:
n/a

Jafar Panahi

65 yrs old | 11th film | never nominated
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
(Neon)

While there's plenty of competition for "significant international auteur" thi year, he has the narrative the media is most enthused about.

noms:
EFA, CCA, Globes,
wins:
Gotham, NYFCC,
good PR:
Middleburg Impact Award

TIER 2 - Potential Spoilers

Chloé Zhao

43 yrs old | 5th film | 1 nom | 1 win
HAMNET
(Focus)

She could become only the second woman to receive a second Best Director nomination. On the other hand it's easy to imagine her missing given the international auteurs and the far less deserving but well-loved Del Toro wanting her spot.

noms:
CCA, Globes,
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Middleburg Visionary

Guillermo Del Toro
60 yrs old | 13th film | 1 nom* | 1 win*
FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

He's well loved in the industry and they'll surely feel his passion for the project. Will that be enough

noms:
CCA, Globes,
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Vanguard Tribute

Kleber Mendoca Filho

56 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated
THE SECRET AGENT
(Neon)

IF it's an thoroughly international year he could land in the top five but Trier & Panahi have a clearer shot at this writing.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Clint Bentley

40 yrs old | 2nd film | never nominated*
TRAIN DREAMS
(Netflix)

While he feels more likely in Adapted Screenplay he could definitely surprise given passion for the film (and his rising career),

noms:
 Spirit,
wins:
n/a

Park Chan Wook
62 yrs old | 14th film | never nominated
NO OTHER CHOICE
(Neon)

The movie is sensational but the Christmas release probably didn't help. He needed the long on-ramp that Trier, Panahi, and Mendoca all had.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Since their films are in the conversation they could (theoretically) surprise.

• Noah Baumbach - Jay Kelly Gotham Director Tribute
• Kathryn Bigelow - House of Dynamite
• Jon M. Chu - Wicked For Good
• Mona Fastvold - The Testament of Ann Lee
• Joseph Kosinski - F1: The Movie
• Yorgos Lanthimos - Bugonia
• Richard Linklater -Blue Moon OR Nouvelle Vague
• Oliver Laxe - Sirat - EFA nominee

OTHER DIRECTORS HONORED THIS SEASON

• Bryan Fuller - Dust Bunny (Debut)   Spirit nominee,
• Constance Tsang - blue Sun Palace   Spirit nominee,
• Eva Victor - Sorry Baby   Spirit nominee, Boston (New Filmmaker), Chicago (Breakthrough), NYFCO (New Filmmaker), San Diego (New Filmmaker),
• Ira Sachs - Peter Hujar's Day   Spirit nominee,
• Kate Beecroft - East of Wall   Spirit nominee
• Lawrence Lamont - One of them Days   Spirit nominee,
• Lloyd Lee Choi - Lucky Lu   Spirit nominee,
• Mary Bronstein- If I had Legs I'd Kick You   Spirit nominee,
• Mascha Schilinski - Sound of Falling EFA nominee

BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME

• Bong Joon-ho - Mickey 17
• Darren Aronofsky - Caught Stealing
• Gus Van Sant - Dead Man's Wire
• James Cameron - Avatar Fire and Ash
• Luca Guadagnino - After the Hunt
• Paul Greengrass - The Lost Bus
• Spike Lee - Highest 2 Lowest
• Wes Anderson - The Phoenician Scheme

BEST CASTING
(first new Oscar category in ages)

The announcement of this category was definitely exciting (given that we had no precedent or past voting patterns to look at.) We had hoped it would be a thoughtful category but givne the finalist list we assume it will be, like most categories, a Best Picture award by another name. Even Wicked For Good made the finals despite having literally no new cast members. (How is it even eligible?)

TIER 1- Predictions

Francine Maisler

SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

As the year's biggest original non-franchise hit, with underrewarded actors this feels like a lock. Plus Maisler is a superstar of casting directors.

BONUS POINTS: Her other films this season were: Jay Kelly, The Lost Bus, Ella McCay, Mickey 17, and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere.

Honors:
Gotham Cast Tribute, CCA nom, Indiana (Ensemble win), Michigan (Ensemble win), NYFCO (Ensemble win), DC (Ensemble win),

Cassandra Kulukundis

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

If they appreciate the deep bench diversity of undervalued players, discoveries, and major stars.

Honors:
Atlanta (Ensemble), CCA nom, 

Jennifer
Venditti

MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

We don't know what they'll looking for (no precedent for this category) so we're guessing Best Picture players

BONUS POINTS: Her other films this season were Bugonia and Smashing Machine.

Honors: CCA nom, Boston (Ensemble win),

Avy Kaufman & Yngvill Kolset Haga

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Allison Jones

WEAPONS
(Warner Bros)

Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey

WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

We live in total fear of this potentional nomination and believe it should not have been eligible. No new cast members were added for the sequel.

CCA nom, 

Robin D Cook

FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

We live in total fear of this nomination coming to pass. We don't think the film is well cast (beyond Elordi who was a surprising choice and very strong in the film). But response to this movie has been weirdly passionate (given what it's offering up).

Nina Gold

HAMNET
(Focus)

 If Oscar responds in a big way to the British cast of this Shakespeare and Family grief drama. Very well cast with a couple of masterstrokes (the Jupe brothers among them)

CCA nom, 

Gabriel Domingues

THE SECRET AGENT
(Neon)

Nadia Acimi, Luis Bértolo & Maria Rodrigo

SIRAT
(Neon)

With only 10 finalists we already know that they've eliminated the following options that seemed theoretically possible at one point or another like...

• House of Dynamite - Susanne Scheel
• It Was Just An Accident -
• Jay Kelly - Nina Gold & Douglas Aibel who received the Middleburg Casting & Ensemble Award and a CCA nom, 
• Wake Up Dead Man - Mary Vernieu

Other films that we feel had more work to do in casting than some of these finalists and did it well included...

• Black Bag -  San Diego (Ensemble win),
• Griffin in Summer - Meredith Tucker & Betsy Ware Fippinger
• The Plague - ?
• Roofman - Bonnie Timmerman
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Isabella Odoffin