BEST DIRECTOR

TIER 1- Predictions

Stats reflect Directing category only!
* = nominated or won in other categories

P.T. Anderson

55 yrs old | 10th film | 3 noms*
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

With eleven nominations to his name (multiple categories) it could finally be "his year".

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Chloé Zhao

43 yrs old | 5th film | 1 nom | 1 win
HAMNET
(Focus)

Likely to become only the second woman to receive a second Best Director nomination (Jane Campion did it first).

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Middleburg Visionary

Ryan Coogler
39 yrs old | 5th film | never nominated*
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

In a Chris Nolan pre-Dunkirk situation (huge hits and Best Pic nominees but no Director nod). Will this be the one or will he have to do a more traditional period epic like Nolan did to break the drought?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Josh Safdie
41 yrs old | 7th film | never nominated
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

If early raves are indication, this could be the film that becomes his mainstream breakout -- early word is that its exhilarating and accessible while still being very him.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Kleber Mendoca Filho

56 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated
THE SECRET AGENT
(Neon)

IF it's an international sort of year he'd be a great choice... and the film still seems to be growing its fanbase.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

TIER 2 - Potential Spoilers

Jafar Panahi

65 yrs old | 11th film | never nominated
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
(Neon)

Could become a 'cause' with the directors branch but they have a lot to choose from in the "significant international auteur" department this year.

noms:
EFA
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Middleburg Impact Award

 Joachim Trier
51 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated*
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

I worry that my initial confidence was wishful thinking as a fan for his whole career. Reviews are marvelous but Filho & Panahi seem to have more buzz as the 'international' option at the moment.

noms:
EFA
wins:
n/a

Jon M Chu
45 yrs old | 9th film | never nominated
WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

If he somehow betters the first film, he could certainly surprise but usually they care less the second time.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Guillermo Del Toro
60 yrs old | 13th film | 1 nom* | 1 win*
FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

He's well loved in the industry and they'll surely feel his passion for the project. Will that be enough

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Vanguard Tribute

Noah Baumbach

55 yrs old | 13th film | never nominated*
JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

Feels more likely to score in screenplay and for performances

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Director Tribute

Yorgos Lanthimos

51 yrs old | 10th film | 2 noms*
BUGONIA
(Focus)

The directing branch likes him. But you can't be nominated every time.

noms:
EFA
wins:
n/a

Park Chan Wook
62 yrs old | 14th film | never nominated
NO OTHER CHOICE
(Neon)

It has strong buzz but what to make of it coming up emptyhanded in Venice?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Kathryn Bigelow
73 yrs old | 11th film | 1 nom | 1 win
A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE
(Netflix)

Early raves, yes, but those quickly subsided and this emerged as something more divisive. Will the directors branch be on the pro side?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Clint Bentley

40 yrs old | 2nd film | never nominated*
TRAIN DREAMS
(Netflix)

After screenplay nominations will he ascend to Best Director contention?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Joseph Kosinski

51 yrs old | 6th film | never nominated
F1 The Movie
(Warner Bros)

If Kosinski keeps up these hit star vehicles it might eventually be his turn. But he seems like a longshot again.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

TIER 4 - Other Possibilities

Previous nominees with 2025 films

• Bong Joon-ho - Mickey 17
• Darren Aronofsky - Caught Stealing
• Gus Van Sant - Dead Man's Wire
• James Cameron - Avatar Fire and Ash
• James L Brooks - Ella McCay
• Paul Greengrass - The Lost Bus
• Richard Linklater - Blue Moon OR Nouvelle Vague (64 yrs old | 22 films)
• Spike Lee - Highest 2 Lowest
• Wes Anderson - The Phoenician Scheme

NEWBIES - This is only their first or second film

• Celine Song - Materialists (2nd Film)
• Embeth Davidtz - Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight (Debut!)
• Hikari - Rental Family (2nd Film)

WHEN WILL IT BE THEIR TIME? These directos have never been up for the Best Director prize (in some cases despite very notable filmographies)

• Ari Aster - Eddington
• Benny Safdie - Smashing Machine (39 yrs old | 5 films) BEST DIRECTOR VENICE
• Bill Condon - Kiss of the Spider-Woman
• Bradley Cooper - Is This Thing On?
• Craig Brewer - Song Sung Blue
• Edward Berger - Ballad of a Small Player (55 yrs old | 7 films | 2 films nominated for BP)
• Joseph Kosinski - F1 The Movie (51 yrs old | 6th film | 1 film nominated for BP)
• Kelly Reichardt -Mastermind
• Kogonada - Big Bold Beautiful Journey
• Luca Guadagnino - After the Hunt
• Mike Flanagan - Life of Chuck
• Oliver Laxe - Sirat -EFA NOMINEE
• Mona Fastvold - The Testament of Ann Lee
• Mascha Schilinski - Sound of Falling EFA NOMINEE
• Rian Johnson - Wake Up Dead Man
• Scott Cooper - Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere (55 yrs old | 7th film)

BEST CASTING
Predictions as of November 10
(first new Oscar category in ages)

Exciting since we have no precedent and thus no idea of what the voting patterns will be. Will it be treated as a "Best Ensemble" award? Or like a "Best Picture" award (as too many categories default to without thinking of the category title)? Or maybe a "Landed the Most Stars!" contractual feat award? Or a "They Sure Have An Eye for Unknowns!" Best Discovery Award?

So many questions --the possibilities are really endless in the next decade unless it immediately defaults to Best Picture Nominees only (which is depressingly likely given how the other branches work)

TIER 1- Predictions

Francine Maisler

SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

As the year's biggest original non-franchise hit, with underrewarded actors it seems like a slam dunk. Plus Maisler is a prolific superstar of casting.

Honors:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Jennifer
Venditti

MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

We don't know what they'll looking for (no precedent for this category) so we're guessing Best Picture players

Cassandra Kulukundis

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

If they appreciate the deep bench diversity of undervalued players, discoveries, and major stars.

Mary Vernieu

WAKE UP DEAD MAN
(Netflix)

Nina Gold & Douglas Aibel

JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

 If they like the central pairing (Clooney & Sandler) and how many stars they were able to land in bit roles...

Honors:
Middleburg Casting & Ensemble Award

Nina Gold

HAMNET
(Focus)

 If Oscar responds in a big way to the British cast of this Shakespeare and Family grief drama

Susanne Scheel

A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE
(Netflix)

Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey

WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

Will definitely place if they include the first film in their thinking as they vote.

Robin D Cook

FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

This feels less likely than Best Picture heat implies if only because it's genre and people are weird about honoring acting (which this sort of does) with genre pieces.

Avy Kaufman & Yngvill Kolset Haga

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Will this new prize consider international titles or will it stay Hollywood insidery? This one has a little of both for crossover appeal

Inescapable Francine Maisler
If they don't honor her for SINNERS or JAY KELLY. there are yet more options!

• Ella McCay
• The Lost Bus
• Mickey 17
• Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere

Busy & Booked Jennifer Venditti
If they don't honor her for MARTY SUPREME... there are two other high profile options

• Bugonia
• The Smashing Machine 

Will the branch consider International Titles for this prize?

• It Was Just An Accident -
• Secret Agent -

FYC Beyond Currently Ubiquitous Stars...
Movies have more than just agency package defaults and big stars. Consider that these directors actually had to audition lots of people and/or think carefully about a bevy of key large-to-small roles, and/or had to discover fresh young talent given the age ranges of the characters, or that they managed to do everything at once with stars and unknowns and found an eclectic unexpected mix of talent without going into default mode...

• Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight- Nicholas Campbell & Jessica Wolhulter
• Griffin in Summer - Meredith Tucker & Betsy Ware Fippinger
• Materialists - Douglas Aibel
• Roofman - Bonnie Timmerman
• Weapons - Allison Jones

Other Casting Directors to choose from in 2025...

• After the Hunt -  Jessica Roane
• Ballad of a Small Player - Nina Gold & Martin Ware
• Caught Stealing- Mary Vernieu
• Dead Man's Wire - Kathy Campbell
• F1 The Movie - Lucy Bevan & Emily Brockmann
• How to Train Your Dragon - Lucy Bevan
• Kiss of the Spider Woman - Adam Caldwell & Tiffany Little Canfield
• The Life of Chuck - Anne McCarthy, Morgan Robbins, Kellie Roy
• The Phoenician Scheme- Douglas Aibel
• Song Sung Blue - Lindsay Graham & Guy Wernick
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Isabella Odoffin