First Predictions: Adapted & Original Screenplays
Sunday, June 7, 2026 at 1:40PM by Nathaniel R
Four inspirations for 2026 movies: Mrs Dalloway becomes CLARRISA, The Unfaithful Wife becomes MINOTAUR, Rocky (1976) gets a making of bio with I PLAY ROCKY, and of course the bestseller turned blockbuster PROJECT HAIL MARY
As someone who never used to have writers block but who has it frequently now, I have a newly reinvigorated respect for fellow writers who perservere. That said, the screenwriters life can't be easy given the amount of script doctoring, star and director and studio "notes", multiple drafts, and anything else that can change an original concept or even an adapted one -- and what is the difference really in some cases? Cheers to anyone who sees anything they wrote up on screen, even if it's only partially their vision in the end. Let's look at some Oscar possibilities after the jump...
The Palme d'Or winner FJORD seems likely to be competitive in BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY even if broader Oscar dreams don't materialize.
ORIGINAL
I like to think of this category as the "auteur" category. Writer/Directors have a unique advantage here in that what you're seeing onscreen is closest to a singular point-of-view as you're ever likely to see in what is essentially a collaborative artform. So we have to look first at Directors who are also Writers here which is why the first two tiers in the prediction cart are filled with those types: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Digger), Beth de Araujo (Josephine), Cristian Mungiu (Fjord), James Gray (Paper Tiger), Jessie Eisenberg (Untitled Film), Joel Coen (Jack of Spades), Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), Pedro Almodóvar (Bitter Christmas) though that's just the tip of the iceberg in terms of possibilities.
ADAPTED
While I tend to prefer original works, Adaptations are also fascinating beasts in that what you're seeing began as a singular voice, which was then often filtered through a separate artists imagination only to be brought to life by a whole bevy of other people. [Tangent: The differentiation in screenplay categories is a conundrum, really, because "Originals" are sometimes adapted from true and well documented stories... so there's an argument to be made that some of those are "Adaptations" while other writers take such liberties with source material that they essentially create originals out of what is still considered an "adaptation"]
Will Dune Part Three (based on "Dune Messiah") be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay? (Part One scored but Part Two didn't)This category is usually a mix of films stemming from novels, non-fiction books, comic books, and stage plays. This year's novels-to-film Oscar possibilities includes Clarissa (said to be a very smart Nigerian twist on "Mrs Dalloway") and Dune Part Three (based on "Dune Messiah") as well as adaptations that didn't change the title like Cry to Heaven, and Project Hail Mary. Two non-fiction books becoming features this year are All of a Sudden and Being Heumann. Comic book adaptations include Avengers Doomsday and Clayface. Plays on their way to movie screens include Switzerland and Ink though we'll see if they actually come out this year. Minotaur, which already won raves at Cannes is a reworking of a screenplay from the 1969 French film The Unfaithful Wife (which was previously adapted to become the 2002 American film Unfaithful). 2026 cinema is going to less usual places for screenplay sources including adaptations of an ancient epic poem for The Odyssey , a 17th century ballad The Death of Robin Hood, a tv series Primetime, and a webseries Backrooms.
While I understand why sequels are considered "Adapted" it's often a strange designation since sometimes it's a case of someone continuing their "Original" work. Consider that Quentin Tarantino's The Adventures of Cliff Booth is an original story to follow up his Original Screenplay nomination for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood which was itself an alternate reality riff on a well documented true and oft-fictionalized story. And then there's Aaron Sorkin who won the Oscar for adapting a non-fiction book into The Social Network and is now writing an original sequel The Social Reckoning but it's considered adapted because of the first film (not because the story itself is true and thus "adaptable" from various news programs and court transcripts).
SEE THE OSCAR CHARTS (THUS FAR)
Reader Comments (12)
The designation of sequels as adapted — especially the continuation of original work — makes no sense to me considering that a screenplay not based on any source material but still portraying historical characters and events (e.g. The King's Speech) is designated as original. The latter seems far less original to me than the former.
Good breakdown of the adapted and original screenplay races; the early predictions already show how much narrative momentum matters.
Just like searches for wa gb pro terbaru apk need clear intent, awards predictions work best when the context behind each contender is explained.
It'll never happen, but I have to stump for The Christophers in Original, and Is God Is and The Bride! in Adapted.
Might OBSESSION figure into Original Screenplay buzz if it holds up its sleeper hit status through awards season?
Is Jesse Eiseneberg poised for a second win with his buzzy theatre acting troop project with Moore and Giamatti who are both rumoured to be on top class form.
@Nathaniel - on the Animated Feature list you forgot to include Jim Queen, which premiered at Cannes, and while not being hailed as a masterpiece, it's been a highlight of the Festival. We know it won't be nominated (but wouldn't it be fun?)
why are the predictions never predicted until so late ??
It's June! The Oscars are in March of 2027
@mrripley Jesse has never won but no doubt he will someday (acting or screenplay!). So excited for this untitled movie and for Julianne and Paul's performances
the original vs. adapted placement is so wonky I always just root for my favorite no matter where they get designated
Your articles are incredibly engaging and captivating. I've mlb grid read many of your articles and I highly appreciate them.
@GregF you're right it was Bafta he won,rumour has it the new films called The Debut.