First Predictions: Music / Sound Categories
Saturday, June 6, 2026 at 4:01PM by Nathaniel R
The year's surest bet: A 55th Oscar nomination for John Williams scoring DISCLOSURE DAY © Universal
Encourage me to keep going with these charts via comments. Let's talk sound and music. These categories generally stay mysterious until late in the year since post-production is such a heavy part of eligibility and credits for music and sound categories. Sometimes they'll switch out composers after filming has ended! And of course Original Song is notoriously hard to predict.
One thing that feels certain, though, is that John Williams will receive his 55th nomination for the score to Disclosure Day. John Williams just turned 94 which will mean that he is likely to break two of his own records (again) as the most nominated person ever AND as the oldest person to ever receive an Oscar nomination (any category). He currently holds the latter record for his nomination at 91 for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023). The Academy's music branch never passes up an opportunity to vote for him, even if the film isn't in play anywhere else...
BEST SCORE Whether or not Disclosure Day becomes a big deal (it's about to open so we'll know soon) is irrelevant since Williams doesn't need his movies to be in play anywhere else. The Academy's music branch never passes up an opportunity to vote for him. But who else might make waves in Original Score? Ludwig Goransson returns with The Odyssey and since he's three-for-three winning his Score nominations, he's a real threat. I don't know about my predictions overall as it seems crazy to have Alexandre Desplat (The Social Reckoning) and Carter Burwell (Jack of Spades) on the outside looking in but I wanted to wish-dict that Emile Mosseri's score for the musical-themed Untitled Jessie Eisenberg Movie will be special and I also believe Daniel Pemberton has a great shot at his second nomination with Project Hail Mary.
BEST SOUND favors four types of films, generally speaking. Musically-inclined films, war films, giant-sized films (i.e. historical epics & blockbusters), and anything that might be up for Best Picture (the latter being a preferred type in all categories even if the individual achievement is unworthy-- le sigh). So if most of those types apply to a film, it has a great shot. Adding a wrinkle to the "types" is that in recent years the sound branch of the Academy has been getting more adventurous and recognizing art-house inclined sound achievements that do really interesting things with sound like, say, Sirat and The Zone of Interest. Anyway, I'm feeling good about the predicted five though the second tier looks just as plausible. Perhaps Behemoth! is the wild card swing here but it is definitely musically inclined and the only reason it isn't in score is that Tony Gilroy reportedly has several many famous composers contributing to it (rather than a single musical POV). That leads me to believe it won't be eligible in Score (though I suppose I should brush up on those rules before believing so) so perhaps Sound is the category?
BEST ORIGINAL SONG rarely becomes a Battle of the Pop Stars even if it often looks like it will be that kind of race early in the year. In 2026 we already have presumably eligible songs from Lady Gaga (The Devil Wears Prada 2), Taylor Swift (Toy Story 5), SZA (Hoppers), Charli XCX (Wuthering Heights), and Anne Hathaway AS a pop star (Mother Mary). Cannes sensation The Black Ball has original songs according to critics from Cannes but I haven't been able to verify that -- for instance there is one famous older Spanish song which shares the films title "La Bola Negra" so if one of the songs is that song reinvented, it obviously wouldn't be eligible, even if it sounds "new" to non-Spanish critics. We'll see.
The interesting thing about pop stars in this category is that the Academy's always controversial music branch has very strange biases. Consider their absolute subservience to Diane Warren no matter how unworthy the songs. Consider also that they're adamantly opposed to Madonna and snubbed her every single time she was eligible though most of the times the songs were hugely popular --- "Into the Groove," "I'll Remember," "This Used to Be My Playground," "Beautiful Stranger", and "Live To Tell" -- and sometimes even in really popular movies!. Or consider their anti-Cher business. Despite their willingness to embarass themselves annually for Diane Warren, the one and only time they've significantly snubbed her was when she wrote a pretty great character song for Cher in Burlesque! So they hate some pop stars they love some others (like Lady Gaga). In January we'll see which of those camps Taylor Swift falls into for her new song from Toy Story 5. In the past when she's been eligible they've ignored her, which might indicate the former, but then the songs themselves weren't high profile (as Swift songs go) or they weren't in a movie that Oscar voters were likely already interested in.
If you've heard news about any Original Songs, do let us know.
- INDEX OF PREDICTIONS (in progress)
- VISUAL CHARTS (in progress)
- SOUND CHARTS (complete!)
Reader Comments (5)
Saw your current working prdications and they look good so far. Also I would put the movie "The Crystal Planet" in the Best Original Song category just in case, cause it has an original song by Diane Warren who is an Oscar darling. The song is called "Somewhere We All Belong". Here are some links to help at https://deadline.com/2026/02/diane-warren-halle-bailey-team-song-crystal-planet-1236725747/ and https://www.animationmagazine.net/2026/02/the-crystal-planet-animated-feature-beams-up-new-song-by-diane-warren-halle-bailey/.
But when she interpreted the work of another legend (Webber/Rice, Sondheim), the song won...
Let's talk important stuff: Is Michelle Pfeiffer going to stockardchanning herself next September?
Thank you for posting Nathaniel! I am happy when I see you share a new article.
#PeggySue: please explain what you mean by <Michelle Pfeiffer is going to stockardchanning herself next September.>