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Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp ActressDirector 
Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film

95th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2023 / CEREMONY: March 10th, 2024
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

  

OCTOBER 20TH
PREDICTED FINALISTS

87 Films Announced To Date (Oct 28)
The deadline to submit is past. Are there any titles we aren't yet aware of?
(the Academy no longer releases an official list so it's harder to keep track than it once was)

15 Finalists Announced in this Category: Dec 17, 2024
Nomination Morning: January 17, 2025
Oscar Night: Sunday, March 2, 2025

 

Tier 1 - Predicted Nominees

THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG

TIFF Review 
Cannes -special prize

Germany

Germany's been on a roll.

I'M STILL HERE

TIFF Review

Brazil

Walter Salles comeback.

EMILIA PEREZ

TIFF Review 
Cannes - Actress/ Jury

France

Could compete in other categories too with Netflix big push 

ARMAND

Cannes win - Camera D'Or

Norway

The winner of the Camera d'Or at Cannes. A nominee for the EUFA Award

VERMIGLIO

Interview
TIFF Review 
Gotham Nominee

Italy

Period drama. Popular in Venice.

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers and Predicted Finalists

UNIVERSAL LANGUAGE

Canada

Might stand out from the crowd on the more comic side

GIRL WITH THE NEEDLE

TIFF Review

Denmark

Second only to Germany in the 21st century with voter favor in this category

IN HER PLACE

Chile

 

Maite Alberdi is already popular with Oscar voters 

TOUCH

Iceland

If they're feeling romantic.

SUJO

Mexico

Mexico has been a consistent finalist presence of late

Tier 3 - Predicted Finalists, Continuted

MEETING WITH POL POT

Cambodia

Oscar voters like journalism dramas.

THE HUNGARIAN DRESSMAKER

Slovakia

The WW II subject matter could appeal

IRELAND

Kneecap

It'll stand out from the crowded list. Plus a familiar face in the cast. A nominee for the EUFA award.

DAHOMEY

Berlinale win 
NYFF Review

Senegal

Mati Diop is a rising auteur and this documentary about the legacy of colonialism in Africa could resonate.

EVERYBODY LOVES TOUDA

Morocco

Nabil Ayouch is a frequently submitted director. When will it happen?

Tier 4 - They wouldn't be a surprise on the finalist list!

MY LAST SUMMER

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Voters have gone for Danis Tanovic films in the past

FLOW

Latvia

Though it's more likely to show up in animated feature

ARZÉ

Lebanon

 

A mother/son dramedy starring Diamand Abou Abooud (The Insult)

BEHIND THE MIST

Ecuador

A 3D documentary could stand out from the crowd.

FAMILY TIME 

Finland

If they're moved by it.

 

 

87 Official Submissions

 CHART 1 - 28 submissions
  • Albania, Waterdrop [political rape drama]
  • Algeria, Algiers [kidnapping thriller]
  • Argentina, Kill the Jockey [LGBTQ drama]
  • Armenia, Yasha and Leonid Breshnev [political drama]
  • Austria, The Devil's Bath [period thriller]
  • Bangladesh, The Wrestler [drama]
  • Belgium, Julie Keeps Quiet [scandal drama]
  • Bolivia, Own Hand [crime thriller]
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina, My Late Summer [family drama]
  • Brazil, I'm Still Here [political family drama]
  • Bulgaria, Triumph [political satire]
  • Cambodia, Meeting with Pol Pot [journalism political drama]
  • Cameroon, Kismet [unknown]
  • Canada, Universal Language [comedy]
  • Chile, In Her Place [drama]
  • China, The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru [WW II documentary]
  • Colombia, La Suprema [sports drama]
  • Costa Rica, Memories of a Burning Body [drama]
  • Croatia, Beautiful Evening, Beautiful Day [period filmmaking drama]
  • Czech Republic, Waves [period journalism drama]
  • Denmark, Girl with the Needle [period drama]
  • Dominican Republic, Aire: Just Breathe [sci-fi thriller]
  • Ecuador, Behind the Mist [mountain climbing documentary]
  • Egypt, Flight 404 [suspense drama]
  • Estonia, 8 Views of Lake Biwa [drama]
  • Finland, Family Time [dramedy]
  • France, Emilia Perez [LGBTQ+ musical drama]
  • Georgia, The Antique [immigrant drama]

CHART 2 - 30 submissions

  • Germany, The Seed of the Sacred Fig [drama]
  • Greece, Murderess [drama]
  • Haiti, Kidnapping Inc  [comic thriller]
  • Hong Kong, Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In [action thriller]
  • Hungary, Semmelweiss [biographical drama]
  • Iceland, Touch [romantic drama]
  • India, Laapata Ladies [newlywed comedy]
  • Indonesia, Women from Rote Island [rape drama]
  • Iraq, Baghdad Messi [sports dramedy]
  • Iran, In the Arms of the Tree[family drama]
  • Ireland, Kneecap [music bio]
  • Israel, Come Closer [grief drama]
  • Italy, Vermiglio [drama]
  • Japan, Cloud [thriller]
  • Jordan, My Sweet Land [wartime documentary]
  • Kazakhstan, Bauryna Salu [family drama]
  • Kenya, Nwai [female experience drama]
  • Kyrgyzstan, Heaven is Beneath Mother's Feet [mother son drama]
  • Latvia, Flow [animation]
  • Lebanon, Arzé [mother/son dramedy]
  • Lithuania, Drowning Dry [drama]
  • Malaysia, Abang Adik [crime drama]
  • Malta, Castillo [crime drama]
  • Mexico, Sudo [crime drama]
  • Mongolia, If Only I Could Hibernate [drama]
  • Montenegro, Supermarket [dramedy]
  • Morocco, Everbody Loves Touda [drama]
  • Nepal, Shambhala [drama]
  • Netherlands, Memory Lane [roadtrip comedy]
  • Norway, Armand [drama]
CHART 3 - 29 submissions
  • Pakistan, The Glassworker [animated drama]
  • Palestine, From Ground Zero [documentary]
  • Panama, Wake Up Mom [thriller]
  • Paraguay, The Last [environmental documentary]
  • Peru, Yana-Wara [mystery drama]
  • Philippines, And So It Begins [political documentary]
  • Poland, Under the Volcano [drama]
  • Portugal, Grand Tour [drama] Cannes win - Best Director
  • Romania, Three Kilometres to the End of the World [LGBTQ drama] Cannes win - Queer Palm
  • Senegal, Dahomey [colonial legacy documentary]
  • Serbia, Russian Counsel [drama]
  • Singapore, La Luna [dramedy]
  • Slovakia, The Hungarian Dressmaker [WW II drama]
  • Slovenia, Family Therapy [family dramedy]
  • South Africa, Old Righteous Blues [music drama]
  • South Korea, 12:12 The Day [military drama]
  • Spain, Saturn Return [music bio]
  • Sweden, The Last Journey [travel documentary]
  • Switzerland, Reinas [family drama]
  • Taiwan, Old Fox [drama]
  • Tajikistan, Melody [teaching drama]
  • Thailand, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies [family dramedy]
  • Tunisia, Take My Breath [LGBTQ drama]
  • Turkey, Life [mystery drama]
  • Ukraine, La Palisaida [procedural drama]
  • United Kingdom, Santosh [procedural drama]
  • Uruguay, The Door is There [conversation documentary]
  • Venezuela, Back to Life [medical drama]
  • Vietnam, Peach Blossom, Pho and Piano [wartime drama]

Good luck to the cream of the crop from these 80+ titles whichever they may be...
 

 

 

OSCAR STATS & FUN TRIVIA ABOUT THIS CATEGORY
Most wins for a foreign film

FOUR WAY TIE Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon (Taiwan 2000), Fanny & Alexander's (Sweden 1983), and All Quiet... (2022) share the record with 4 wins (Foreign Film plus crafts). Parasite (South Korea, 2019) tied that number but in 'bigger' categories: Picture, Director, Screenplay, and International

Most nominations for a foreign film

TIE Roma (2018) and Crouching Tiger's share this record with 10 nominations each. 

Roma went on to three wins and Crouching four but neither film was able to win Best Picture.

Most competitive wins in the category by director

Federico Fellini won 4 Oscars for Italy: La Strada (1956), Nights of Cabiria (1957), 8 1/2 (1963) and Amarcord (1974). In fact, he won every time he was nominated within this category. Italy submitted his work three other times but Satyricon, Roma, and And the Ship Sails On were not nominated.

Most competitive wins & nominations w/out winning International Feature

Pan's Labyrinth (2006) won 3 awards from 6 nominations but lost its own category to The Lives of Others.

Most nominated country

France leads with 38 nominees (they were also given 3 honoraries before nominations began proper in 1956). Their most recent win was 30 years ago with Indochine (1992) starring Catherine Deneuve.

MORE ON FRANCE & OSCAR HERE

Most winning country

ITALY leads with 14 wins (3 of which were honoraries). Some of the most famous films among their winners are The Bicycle Thief (1949), 8 1/2 (1963), The Garden of the Finzi-Continis (1971), Cinema Paradiso (1989), and Life is Beautiful (1998). Italy has struggled since the 21st century began, though, with only 1 win  (The Great Beauty, 2013)

 

Most popular country with Oscar these past two decades

That would be GERMANY. In the 21st century (i.e. the past 24 years) Germany has been nominated 10 times and won thrice.

More details on last row of this chart

First foreign language film nominated for Best Picture

Grand Illusion (1938). But Oscar didn't start giving statues to foreign films until 11 years later and foreign films didn't get their own competitive category until 1956

Most influential snub of the past two decades

You have the horror of the snubbing of Romania's Palme d'or winner 4 Weeks, 3 Months and 2 Days (2007) to thank for the creation of the Academy's Executive Committee. Nominations immediately improved after this committee process began.

First foreign language film to win an acting Oscar

Italy's Two Women (1961) won Best Actress for Sophia Loren who was, not unimportantly, already a major star in the US. But Italy did not submit her vehicle for Foreign Film, choosing Michelangelo Antonioni's La Notte instead (which was not nominatd)

First country to break through Oscar's midcentury France/Italy/Japan obsession

For the first 12 years of foreign-language film honors only France, Italy, or Japan ever won. Sweden was the first country to break up that strangehold with back to back Ingmar Bergman wins for The Virgin Spring (1960) and Through a Glass Darkly (1961)

First foreign language film to win any Oscar

Switzerland's Marie-Louise (1944) won Best Screenplay, years before the Best International Feature Film category began.

First foreign language film winner to win more than one Oscar

Japan's Gate of Hell (1954) won the Honorary for Foreign Film and also took home Costume Design.

Costume Design is the category with the most wins for foreign-language films (7 in total). Runner up is a 3-way tie of 6 wins between Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Cinematography

Only directors of foreign film nominees to go on to direct a Best Picture winner

Czech director Milos Forman for Loves of a Blonde (1965)/ Fireman's Ball (1967) + One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)/ Amadeus (1984) was the first to do it. Two Mexican filmmakers have followed suit: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Amores Perros (2000)/Biutiful (2010) + Birdman (2014) and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth (2006) + Shape of Water (2017)

Only Bong Joon-ho has done both simultaneously (with Parasite, 2019)

Only Best International Film winners to also win Best Director

Bong Joon-ho (Parasite for South Korea) and Alfonso Cuarón (Roma for Mexico) are the only directors to accomplish this feat and both were very recent.

It's worth noting that Ang Lee (Taiwan) has won the Best Director category twice but curiously neither time was that win connected to either a Best Picture Winner or a Best International Film winner. Very interesting stat for Mr. Ang Lee there, showing how often he's delivered in a major way.

Most Overall Nominations for a Best Foreign Language Film Nominee That Didn't Win Anything (Not Even This Category)

This is a three-way tie. The most recent is the French comedy Amélie (2000) which scored 5 nominations but suffered a surprise loss to Bosnia in the foreign category.

Earlier the French musical masterpiece The Umbrellas of Cherbourg (1964) and the Swedish drama classic The Emigrants (1971) both received 5 nominations (across two years back when that was allowed due to release date issues) and lost all of their categories.

Biggest Comeback / Revenge for a Film that Was Snubbed In This Category

This answer is subjective (how to define comeback or revenge?) but the answer is probably Brazil's City of God which failed to receive a nomination in 2022 when submitted. In 2023 after its US release it scored 4 shocking nominations including Best Director. Truly no pundits or media types saw that coming that year.

Other snubbees that got sweet revenge after their snub? Germany's Run Lola Run (1998/1999) became an influential art house sensation. Films like Sweden's Persona (1966) and Hong Kong's In the Mood for Love (2000/2001) now regularly make lists of the greatest films of all time.

Directors with Most Success In This Category Though *Technically* the Country Wins

special cases
Akira Kurosawa (Japan), Vittorio de Sica (Italy) Rene Clement (France)

They had Honorary winners before the category existed. Then competing films so hard to fit in this list...

4 noms / 4 wins
Federico Fellini (Italy)

4 noms / 1 win
Jose Luis Garci (Spain)
Istvan Szabo (Hungary)

4 noms / no wins
Andrjez Wajda (Poland)
Mario Monicelli (Italy)

3 noms / 3 wins
Ingmar Bergman (Sweden)

3 noms / 1 win
Pedro Almodovar (Spain)
Luis Bunuel (Spain/France)
Nikita Mikalkhov (Russia)
Francois Truffaut (France)

3 noms / no wins
Jan Troell (Sweden)
Bo Widerberg (Sweden)

too many two-time nominees to list

Stars Who've Appeared in Most Best International Feature Film Nominees


in 7 nominated films
Max Von Sydow

in 5 nominated films
Catherine Deneuve 
Marcello Mastroianni 

in 4 nominated films
Ricardo Darin
Gerard Depardieu 
Vittorio Gassman
Isabelle Huppert 
Mads Mikkelsen 
Philippie Noiret

in 3 nominated films
Fanny Ardant
Klaus Maria Brandauer
Gael Garcia Bernal 
Penelope Cruz
Erland Josephson
Gong Li
Sophia Loren
Tatuya Nakadai
Fernando Rey
Jean-Louis Trintignant
Liv Ullmann

Way too many actors have appeared in two nominated films to list but some still working include: Javier Bardem, Antonio Banderas,  Toni Servillo, Daniel Bruhl, Benno Furman, Sebastian Koch

Only Best International Film Nominees to Also Compete in Best Picture

Z (1969)
The Emigrants (1971)
Life is Beautiful (1997)
Crouching Tiger (2000)
Amour (2012)
Roma (2018)
Parasite (2019)
Drive My Car (2021)
All Quiet on the... (2022)
Zone of Interest (2023)

Nominated for Best Picture but NOT Submitted for  International by Their Country

Cries and Whispers (1972)
Il Postino (1995)
Anatomy of a Fall (2023)

Nominated for Best Picture Before International Feature Existed as a Category

Grand Illusion (1938) 

Most Popular Countries with Oscar
(20TH CENTURY)

1. FRANCE
(30 noms | 9 wins | 3 honoraries) 

2. ITALY
(26 noms | 10 wins | 3 honoraries)

3. SPAIN
(18 noms | 3 wins)

4. SWEDEN
(12 noms | 3 wins)

5. GERMANY
(12 noms / 1 win)

6. JAPAN
(10 noms + 3 Honoraries)

7. SOVIET UNION*
(9 noms | 3 wins)

8. HUNGARY
(8 noms / 1 win)

9. POLAND 
(7 noms | 0 wins)

10. CZECHOSLOVAKIA*
(6 noms | 2 wins)

11 [tie] ISRAEL & YUGOSLAVIA*
(6 noms | 0 wins)

12. NETHERLANDS
(5 noms | 3 wins)

* country no longer exists, having split into multiple countries

Most Popular Countries with Oscar
(21ST CENTURY evolving)

1. GERMANY
(10 noms | 3 wins | 5 finalists)

2. DENMARK
(8 noms | 2 wins | 4 finalists)

3. FRANCE
(8 noms | 5 finalists)

4. POLAND
(6 noms | 1 win)

5. MEXICO
(5 noms | 1 win |  5 finalists)

6. CANADA
(5 noms | 1 win | 3 finalists)

7. JAPAN
(5 noms | 2 wins | 1 finalist)

8. ARGENTINA
(4 noms | 1 win)

9. SWEDEN
(4 noms | 4 finalists)

10. ISRAEL
(4 noms | 1 finalist)

runners up: Austria, Iran, Russia

Most Popular Countries with Oscar
(ALL-TIME STATS) 

1. FRANCE
(38 noms | 9 wins | 3 honoraries | 4 finalists)

2. ITALY
(29 noms | 11 wins | 3 honoraries | 1 finalist) 

3. GERMANY
(22 noms | 4 wins | 5 finalists)

4. SPAIN
(21 noms | 4 wins | 3 finalists)

5. SWEDEN
(16 noms | 3 wins | 4 finalists)

6. JAPAN
(15 noms | 2 wins | 3 honoraries | 1 finalist)

7. DENMARK
(14 noms | 4 wins | 2 finalists)

8. POLAND
(13 noms | 1 win)

9. HUNGARY
(10 noms | 2 wins | 2 finalists)

10. ISRAEL
(10 noms | 1 finalist)
Only country with double digit noms that hasn't yet won.

11. SOVIET UNION*
(9 noms | 3 wins)

runners up: Mexico, Argentina, Belgium, Russia

 country no longer exists, having split into multiple countries

"NEVER GIVE UP"
These Unlucky Countries (In Terms of Oscar) Have The Highest Submission Totals Without Ever Being Nominated


01. PORTUGAL (41 submissions)

02. EGYPT (38 submissions)

03. BULGARIA (35 submissions | 1 finalist)

04. VENEZUELA (34 submissions | 1 finalist)

05. CROATIA (34 submissions)

06. PHILIPPINES (33 submissions BUT THIS YEAR?)

07. TURKEY (31 submissions | 1 finalist)

08 THAILAND (30 submissions BUT THIS YEAR?)

09 [tie] SLOVAKIA & SLOVENIA (27 submissions Slovakia...but this year? 28 submissions Slovenia)

11 INDONESIA
(26 submissions)

12 URUGUAY (24 submissions | 1 disqualified nom)

runners up:
luxembourg, bangladesh, singapore

Longest Consecutive Nomination Streaks

6 YEARS

Italy (1974-1979)

5 YEARS

Italy (1956-1960)
France (1956-1960)
Italy (1962-1966)
France (1966-1970)
France (1976-1980)

4 YEARS

Germany (1956-1959)
Czechoslovakia (1965-1968)

3 YEARS

Mexico (1960-1962)
Japan (1963-1965)
Israel (1971-1973)
France (1972-1974)
Poland (1974-1976)
Spain (1982-1984)
France (1985-1987)
Denmark (1987-1989)
Italy (1989-1991)
Spain (1997-1999)
France (1999-2001)
Germany (2004-2006)
Israel (2007-2009)

in the past 14 years no country has accomplished this - Germany could break that drought this season since they've been nominated in both of the previous two seasons.

 

Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp Actress | Director 

Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film