CURRENT PREDICTIONS FOR THE 15 FILM LONG FINALIST LIST ON DECEMBER 16TH

NEON LOOKS TO UTTERLY DOMINATE THE CATEGORY UNLESS BUZZ CHANGES SWIFTLY IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. They've scooped up four of the buzziest subtitled pictures this year (Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, It Was Just An Accident, and Sirat).

Other distributors who tend to try to make waves in this category are Sony Pictures Classics, MUBI, Netflix, and Janus Films but at least at this writing they may struggle to get past Neon's formidable wall of contenders.

TIER 1 - THE NOMINEE PREDICTIONS 

Norway
47 submissions
6 noms
0 wins
+ 3 finalists
 

SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Joachim Trier

Cannes Review 
TIFF Review

Joachim Trier follows up his greatest film (and Oscar nominee) Worst Person in the World with another hugely acclaimed drama starring Reinate Reinsve. This one is a drama about an actress at   odds with her director father (Stellan Skarsgard). Norway has yet to win this prize!

Winner Grand Prix,  Cannes

NEON in US,
NOVEMBER 7th

Brazil
54 submissions
5 noms
1 win
+ 1 finalist
 

THE SECRET AGENT
Kleber Mendoca Filho

France

70 submissions
(but submitting even before it was an official category for honorary Oscars)
42 noms
9 wins
+ 3 honoraries
+ 5 finalists

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
Jafar Panahi
102 minutes
Persian

The Palme d'Or winner has been praised as a gripping thriller and defiantly political. Now it's France's official submission. Will oscar voters follow festivals in obsessing over Panahi's career? 

Winner Palme d'Or,  Cannes

NEON in US,
OCTOBER 15th

Tunisia
12 submissions
1 nom
+ 1 finalist

THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB
Kaouther Ben Hania
89 minutes
Arabic

A true story of a 5 year-old Palestinian girl who was trapped in a car under IDF fire. Red Crescent volunteers try to get an ambulance to her.

Winner Silver Lion, Venice

US Distributor TBA

Iraq
14 submissions
0 noms
0 wins

THE PRESIDENT'S CAKE
Hasan Hadi
102 minutes
Arabic

It was the winner of the Camera D'Or at Cannes (Best Debut) and SPC, who understands Oscar campaigns,  believes in it. This film is about a young girl forced to bake a cake in honor of Sadam Hussein.

Winner Camera D'Or, Cannes

SPC in US,
DATE TBA

Tier 2 - POTENTIAL SPOILERS. ALSO EASY TO PICTURE AS NOMINEES 

Chile
29 submissions
2 noms
1 win
+ 1 finalist

MYSTERIOUS GAZE OF THE FLAMINGO
Diego Cespedes
104 minutes
Spanish

Cannes Review
TIFF Review

It's set in a rural world of drag queens and local miners  during the AIDS crisis.

Winner Un Certain Regard, Cannes

US Distributor TBA

Japan

69 submissions
(but submitting even before it was an official category for honorary Oscars)
15 noms
2 wins
+ 3 honoraries
+ 1 finalist

KOKUHO
Lee Sang-il
174 minutes
Japanese

Ryo Yoshizawa and Ken Watanabe star in this post war drama about a young man born to gangsters and a Kabuki actor who takes him in.

GKids in the US
Date TBA 2026

Iceland
46 submissions
1 nom
0 wins
+4 finalists

THE LOVE THAT REMAINS
Hylnur Palmasson
109 minutes
Icelandic

The Godland director's latest (starring his own children) is about a family struggling through the parents separation. 

Janus Films in US,
DATE TBA

Morocco
21 submissions
0 noms
0 wins
+3 finalists

CALLE MALAGA
Maryam Touzani
116 minutes
Spanish & Arabic

Morocco has been making the finals. At some point theyre going to be nominated and wouldn't Maryam Touzani and star Carmen Maura be quite a ticket to the big show? Audience winner at Venice. 

Winner Audience Award, Venice

US Distributor TBA

South Korea
36 submissions
1 nom
1 winn
+ 2 finalists

NO OTHER CHOICE
Park Chan-wook
139 minutes
Korean

Venice Review

Park Chan-wook's new thriller about a long unemployed man getting rid of his competition.

NEON in US,
DECEMBER 25th

Tier 3 - TO ROUND OUT THE 15-WIDE FINALIST LIST? WILL THESE (CURRENTLY) LESS BUZZY FILMS RISE AS VOTERS SEE THEM? 

Germany

71 submissions
21 noms
4 wins
+ 5 finalists

SOUND OF FALLING
Mascha Schilinski
149 minutes
German

Cannes Review

Being a major prize winner at Cannes will help. The film is about multiple women in the same house across generations.

Winner Jury Prize,  Cannes

MUBI in US,
DATE TBA

Spain

68 submissions
21 noms
4 wins
+ 3 finalists

SIRAT
Oliver Laxe
115 minutes
Spanish & French

Cannes Review

Being a major prize winner at Cannes will help. The fact that it is unpredictable could unfortunately dim its power given the plot-heavy reviews US critics love to do. And NEON may be distracted by its other contenders here.

Winner Jury Prize,  Cannes

NEON in US,
One Week Qualifier (Nov 14)

Canada
51 submissions
7 noms
1 win
+ 4 finalists

THE THINGS YOU KILL
113  minutes
Turkish

A major success at Sundance, this Turkish language thriller is about a man who coerces his gardener into a violent crime.

Winner World Cinema Director, Sundance

US Distributor TBA

Philippines
34 submissions
0 noms
0 wins

MAGELLAN
Lav Diaz
165 minutes
Spanish, Portuguese, Tagalog, English

Gael Garcia Bernal, no stranger to this category, stars as the Portuguese explorer in this epic from Lav Diaz.

Janus Films in US,
DATE TBA

Switzerland
53 submissions
5 noms
2 wins
+ 3 finalists

LATE SHIFT
Petra Volpe
92 minutes
German

Fast rising star Leonie Benesch plays a nurse on an intense night shift.

Music Box in US
DATE TBA

The Academy invites over 100 countries to submit films each year. While we were trending upwards in number of competitors each decade,  the 2020s have seen a tapering off. And after a few years of 90+ submissions we usually land in the high 80s now.  Therefore we need three pages of charts. If the films are bolded in the list below they've won a key prize at one of "the big five" film festivals (sundance, berlin, cannes, venice, tiff). If the title is linked we've reviewed them. 

• ALBANIA - Luna Park
• ARGENTINA - Belen
• Armenia - My Armenian Phantoms
• AUSTRALIA - The Wolves Always Come At Night
• Austria - Peacock
• Azerbaija - Taghiyev: Oil
• BANGLADESH - A House Named Shanana
• Belgium - Young Mothers --> Screenplay winner at Cannes
• BHUTAN - I, The Song
• BOSNIA - Blum: Masters of Their Own Destiny
• Brazil - The Secret Agent --> Director & Actor winner at Cannes
• Bulgaria - Tarika
• Cambodia - Tenement
• Canada - The Things You Kill --> Director Win at Sundance
• Chile - Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo --> Un Certain Regard Winner Cannes
• CHINA - Dead to Rights
• Colombia - A Poet --> Un Certain Regard Jury Prize at Cannes
• Costa Rica - The Altar Boyu, The Priest, and the Gardener
• Croatia - Fiume a Morte
• Czech Repubic - I'm Not Everything I Want to Be
• DENMARK - Mr Nobody Against Putin
• Dominican Republic - Pepe 
• Ecuador.- Chuzalongo
• Egypt - Happy Birthday
• Estonia - Rolling Papers
• Finland - 100 Litres of Gold
• FRANCE - It Was Just An Accident --> Palme d'Or Winner Cannes
• GEORGIA - Panopticon
• Germany -Sound of Falling --> Jury Prize at Cannes 
• GREECE - Arcadia
• GREENLAND - Walls Akini Innuk

CHART 2 - Hungary through Norway
27 submissions

• HAITI - Kidnapping Inc
• HONG KONG -The Last Dance
• Hungary - Orphan
• Iceland - The Love That Remains --> Palm Dog at Cannes
• INDIA - Homebound
• Indonia - Sore: Wife from the Future
• Iran - Cause of Death Unknown 
• Iraq - The President's Cake --> Camera D'Or at Cannes
• Ireland - Sanatorium
• ISRAEL - The Sea
• ITALY - Familia
• Japan - Kokuho
• Jordan - All That's Left of You
• KAZAKHSTAN - Cadet
• KYRGYZSTAN - Black Red Yellow
• Latvia - Dog of God
• LEBANON - A Sad and Beautiful World
• LITHUANIA - The Southern Chronicles
• LUXENBOURG - Breathing Underwater
• MEXICO - We Shall Not Be Moved
• MONGOLIA - Silent City Driver
• MONTENEGRO - The Tower of Strength
• Morocco - Calle Malaga --->Audience Award at Venice  
• NEPAL - Anjila
• Netherlands - Reedland
• North Macedonia - The Tale of Silyan
• Norway - Sentimental Value --> Second Place at Cannes

• Palestine - Palestine '36
• Panama - Beloved Tropic
• Papua New Guinea - Papa Buka
• Paraguay - Under the Flags, The Sun
• Peru - Motherland
• Philippines - Magellan
• Poland - Franz
• Portugal - Banzo
• Romania - Traffic
• SENEGAL - Demba
• SERBIA - Sun Never Again
• SINGAPORE - Stranger Eyes
• Slovakia - Father
• Slovenia - Little Trouble Girls
• SOUTH AFRICA - The Heart is a Muscle 
• South Korea - No Other Choice
• Spain - Sirat--> Jury Prize at Cannes
• Sweden - Eagles of the Republic
• Switzerland - Late Shift
• Taiwan - Left Handed Girl
• TAJIKISTAN - Black Rabbit, White Rabbit
• Thailand - A Useful Ghost
• Tunisia -The Voice of Hind Rajab --->Second Place at Venice
• Turkey - One of These Days When Hemme Dies
• Ukraine - 2000 Meters to Andriivka
• Uruguay - Don't You Let Me Go
• VENEZUELA - Ali Primera 
• VIETNAM - Red Rain
  
  

Most nominations for a foreign film

Emilia Perez holds the record by a huge margin with 13 nominations. The record was previously a tie between Roma (2018) and Crouching Tigerwith 10 nominations each. 

Roma went on to three wins and Crouching four but Emilia Perez didn't win its category!

Most competitive wins in the category by director

Federico Fellini won 4 Oscars for Italy: La Strada (1956), Nights of Cabiria (1957), 8 1/2 (1963) and Amarcord (1974). In fact, he won every time he was nominated within this category. Italy submitted his work three other times but Satyricon, Roma, and And the Ship Sails On were not nominated.

Most nominated country

France leads with 39 nominees (they were also given 3 honoraries before nominations began proper in 1956). Their most recent win was 33 years ago with Indochine (1992) starring Catherine Deneuve. Their drought continues...

MORE ON FRANCE & OSCAR HERE

Most winning country of all time

ITALY leads with 14 wins (3 of which were honoraries). Some of the most famous films among their winners are The Bicycle Thief (1949), 8 1/2 (1963), The Garden of the Finzi-Continis (1971), Cinema Paradiso (1989), and Life is Beautiful (1998). Italy has struggled since the 21st century began, though, with only 1 win  (The Great Beauty, 2013)

Most popular country with Oscar since 2000

That would be GERMANY. In the 21st century (i.e. the past 25 years) Germany has been nominated 11 times and won 3 times. And if that weren't enough they made the finals in another 5 times. In short they've been competitive in 64% of this century's Oscar races.

More details on last row of this chart

First foreign language film nominated for Best Picture

Grand Illusion (1938). But Oscar didn't start giving statues to foreign films until 11 years later and foreign films didn't get their own competitive category until 1956

Most influential snub of the past two decades

You have the horror of the snubbing of Romania's Palme d'or winner 4 Weeks, 3 Months and 2 Days (2007) to thank for the creation of the Academy's Executive Committee. Nominations immediately improved after this committee process began.

First foreign language film to win an acting Oscar

Italy's Two Women (1961) won Best Actress for Sophia Loren who was, not unimportantly, already a major star in the US. But Italy did not submit her vehicle for Foreign Film, choosing Michelangelo Antonioni's La Notte instead (which was not nominatd)

First country to break through Oscar's midcentury France/Italy/Japan obsession

For the first 12 years of foreign-language film honors only France, Italy, or Japan ever won. Sweden was the first country to break up that strangehold with back to back Ingmar Bergman wins for The Virgin Spring (1960) and Through a Glass Darkly (1961)

First foreign language film to win any Oscar

Switzerland's Marie-Louise (1944) won Best Screenplay, years before the Best International Feature Film category began.

First foreign language film winner to win more than one Oscar

Japan's Gate of Hell (1954) won the Honorary for Foreign Film and also took home Costume Design.

Costume Design is the category with the most wins for foreign-language films (7 in total). Runner up is a 3-way tie of 6 wins between Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Cinematography

Only directors of foreign film nominees to go on to direct a Best Picture winner

Czech director Milos Forman for Loves of a Blonde (1965)/ Fireman's Ball (1967) + One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)/ Amadeus (1984) was the first to do it. Two Mexican filmmakers have followed suit: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Amores Perros (2000)/Biutiful (2010) + Birdman (2014) and Guillermo del Toro for Pan's Labyrinth (2006) + Shape of Water (2017)

Only Bong Joon-ho has done both simultaneously (with Parasite, 2019)

Only Best International Film winners to also win Best Director

Bong Joon-ho (Parasite for South Korea) and Alfonso Cuarón (Roma for Mexico) are the only directors to accomplish this feat and both were very recent.

It's worth noting that Ang Lee (Taiwan) has won the Best Director category twice but curiously neither of those wins was connected to either a Best Picture Winner OR  a Best International Film winner. Very interesting stat for Mr. Ang Lee there, showing how often he's delivered in a major way.

Most Overall Nominations for a Best Foreign Language Film Nominee That Didn't Win Anything (Not Even This Category)

This is a three-way tie. The most recent is the French comedy Amélie (2000) which scored 5 nominations but suffered a surprise loss to Bosnia in the foreign category.

Earlier the French musical masterpiece The Umbrellas of Cherbourg (1964) and the Swedish drama classic The Emigrants (1971) both also received 5 nominations (across two years back when that was allowed due to release date issues) and lost all of their categories.

Biggest Comeback / Revenge for a Film that Was Snubbed In This Category

This answer is subjective (how to define comeback or revenge?) but the answer is probably Brazil's City of God which failed to receive a nomination in 2022 when submitted. In 2023 after its US release it scored 4 shocking nominations including Best Director. Truly no pundits or media types saw that coming that year.

Other snubees that got sweet revenge after their snub? Germany's Run Lola Run (1998/1999) became an influential art house sensation. Films like Sweden's Persona (1966) and Hong Kong's In the Mood for Love (2000/2001) now regularly make lists of the greatest films of all time.

Directors with Most Success In This Category Though *Technically* the Country Wins

special cases
Akira Kurosawa (Japan), Vittorio de Sica (Italy) Rene Clement (France)

They had Honorary wins before the category existed. Then competing films so hard to fit in this list...

4 noms / 4 wins
Federico Fellini (Italy)

4 noms / 1 win
Jose Luis Garci (Spain)
Istvan Szabo (Hungary)

4 noms / no wins
Andrjez Wajda (Poland)
Mario Monicelli (Italy)

3 noms / 3 wins
Ingmar Bergman (Sweden)

3 noms / 1 win
Pedro Almodovar (Spain)
Luis Bunuel (Spain/France)
Nikita Mikalkhov (Russia)
Francois Truffaut (France)

3 noms / no wins
Jan Troell (Sweden)
Bo Widerberg (Sweden)

too many two-time nominees to list

Stars Who've Appeared in Most Best International Feature Film Nominees

in 7 nominated films
Max Von Sydow

in 5 nominated films
Catherine Deneuve 
Marcello Mastroianni 

in 4 nominated films
Ricardo Darin
Gerard Depardieu 
Vittorio Gassman
Isabelle Huppert 
Mads Mikkelsen 
Philippie Noiret

in 3 nominated films
Fanny Ardant
Klaus Maria Brandauer
Gael Garcia Bernal 
Penelope Cruz
Trine Dyrholm
Erland Josephson
Gong Li
Sophia Loren
Tatuya Nakadai
Fernando Rey
Jean-Louis Trintignant
Liv Ullmann

Way too many actors have appeared in two nominated films to list but some still working include: Javier Bardem, Antonio Banderas,  Toni Servillo, Daniel Bruhl, Benno Furman, and Sebastian Koch

Only Best International Film Nominees to Also Compete in Best Picture

Z (1969)
The Emigrants (1971)
Life is Beautiful (1997)
Crouching Tiger (2000)
Amour (2012)
Roma (2018)
Parasite (2019)
Drive My Car (2021)
All Quiet on the... (2022)
Zone of Interest (2023)
Emilia Perez
(2024)
I'm Still Here (2024)

Nominated for Best Picture but NOT Submitted for  International by Their Country

Cries and Whispers (1972)
Il Postino (1995)
Anatomy of a Fall (2023)

Nominated for Best Picture Before International Feature Existed as a Category

Grand Illusion (1938) 

Most Popular Countries w/ Oscar
(20TH CENTURY)

1. FRANCE
(30 noms | 9 wins | 3 honoraries) 

2. ITALY
(26 noms | 10 wins | 3 honoraries)

3. SPAIN
(18 noms | 3 wins)

4. SWEDEN
(12 noms | 3 wins)

5. GERMANY
(12 noms / 1 win)

6. JAPAN
(10 noms + 3 Honoraries)

7. SOVIET UNION*
(9 noms | 3 wins)

8. HUNGARY
(8 noms / 1 win)

9. POLAND 
(7 noms | 0 wins)

10. CZECHOSLOVAKIA*
(6 noms | 2 wins)

11 [tie] ISRAEL & YUGOSLAVIA*
(6 noms | 0 wins)

12. NETHERLANDS
(5 noms | 3 wins)

* country no longer exists, having split into multiple countries

Most Popular Countries w/ Oscar
(21ST CENTURY 
evolving list)
▲ arrows indicates they were in the mix last season

▲ 1. GERMANY
(11 noms | 3 wins | 5 finalists)

▲ 2. DENMARK
(9 noms | 2 wins | 4 finalists)

▲ 3. FRANCE
(9 noms | 5 finalists)

4. POLAND
(6 noms | 1 win)

5. MEXICO
(5 noms | 1 win |  5 finalists)

▲ 6. CANADA
(5 noms | 1 win | 3 finalists)

7. JAPAN
(5 noms | 2 wins | 1 finalist)

▲ 8. ITALY
(4 noms | 1 win | 2 finalists) 

9. ARGENTINA
(4 noms | 1 win)

10. SWEDEN
(4 noms | 4 finalists)

countries just outside this list: Austria, Iran, Israel, Russia, Belgium, Norway

Most Popular Countries with Oscar
(ALL-TIME STATS) 

1. FRANCE
(39 noms | 9 wins | 3 honoraries | 4 finalists)

2. ITALY
(29 noms | 11 wins | 3 honoraries | 1 finalist) 

3. GERMANY
(23 noms | 4 wins | 5 finalists)

4. SPAIN
(21 noms | 4 wins | 3 finalists)

5. SWEDEN
(16 noms | 3 wins | 4 finalists)

6. DENMARK
(15 noms | 4 wins | 2 finalists)

7. JAPAN
(15 noms | 2 wins | 3 honoraries | 1 finalist)

8. POLAND
(13 noms | 1 win)

9. HUNGARY
(10 noms | 2 wins | 2 finalists)

10. ISRAEL
(10 noms | 1 finalist)
Only country with double digit noms that hasn't yet won.

11. SOVIET UNION*
(9 noms | 3 wins)

runners up: Mexico, Argentina, Belgium, Russia

*  country no longer exists, having split into multiple countries

"NEVER GIVE UP"
These Unlucky Countries (In Terms of Oscar) Have The Highest Submission Totals Without Ever Being Nominated

01. PORTUGAL (41 submissions)

02. EGYPT (39 submissions)

03. BULGARIA (36 submissions | 1 finalist)

04. PHILIPPINES (35 submissions... + 1 submission before it was an official category)

05. VENEZUELA (34 submissions | 1 finalist)

06. CROATIA (35 submissions)

07. [tie] TURKEY & THAILAND (32 submissions | 1 finalist)

09 [tie] SLOVAKIA & SLOVENIA (28 submissions Slovakia / 29 submissions Slovenia)

11 INDONESIA
(27 submissions)

12 URUGUAY (25 submissions | 1 disqualified nom)

runners up:
Bangladesh (20) Luxembourg (19), Singapore (18)

Longest Consecutive Nomination Streaks

6 YEARS

Italy (1974-1979)

5 YEARS

Italy (1956-1960)
France (1956-1960)
Italy (1962-1966)
France (1966-1970)
France (1976-1980)

4 YEARS

Germany (1956-1959)
Czechoslovakia (1965-1968)

Germany could re-enter this very exclusive four consecutive club in a year's time...

3 YEARS

Mexico
(1960-1962)
Japan
(1963-1965)
Israel
(1971-1973)
France
(1972-1974)
Poland
(1974-1976)
Spain
(1982-1984)
France
(1985-1987)
Denmark (1987-1989)
Italy
(1989-1991)
Spain
(1997-1999)
France
(1999-2001)
Germany (2004-2006)
Israel
(2007-2009)
Germany (2022-2024)