ORIGINAL SCORE

Tier 1 - Predictions

Ludwig Goransson
3 noms / 2 wins
SINNERS

noms:
Grammys , HMMA
wins:
n/a  

Alexandre Desplat
11 noms / 2 wins
FRANKENSTEIN

noms:
HMMA
wins:
n/a

Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be...

Jonny Greenwood

2 noms
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

noms:
HMMA
wins:
n/a

Michael Giacchino
2 noms | 1 win
FANTASTIC FOUR

noms:
HMMA
wins:
n/a

Hans Zimmer
12 noms | 2 wins
F1

noms:
Grammys, HMMA
wins:
n/a

Nicholas Britell
3 noms
JAY KELLY

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Tier 3 Longer Shots

Previous Nominees

• After the Hunt - Reznor & Ross (3 noms / 2 wins)
• Ballad of a Small Player Volker Bertellman (3 noms | 1 win)
• Dead Man's Wire -Danny Elfman (4 noms)
• Ella McCay - Hans Zimmer (12 noms / 2 wins)
• Jurassic World Rebirth (HMMA nominee) AND Phoenician Scheme - Alexandre Desplat (11 noms / 2 wins)
• Running Man - Steven Price (1 nom / 1 win)
• Testament of Ann Lee - Daniel Blumberg (1 nom / 1 win)

Never nominated but that could change

• Avatar Fire and Ash - Simon Franglen (HMMA nominee)
• Captain America Brave New World - Laura Karpman (HMMA nominee)
• Caught Stealing AND Elio - Rob Simonsen
• Life of Chuck - Newton Brothers
• Marty Supreme - Daniel Lopatin (HMMA nominee)
• Secret Agent - Mateus Alva & Tomas Alves Souza
• Sentimental Value - Hania Rani
• Smashing Machine - Nala Sinephro
• Snow White - Jeff Morrow
• Superman - David Fleming and John Murphy
• Thunderbolts* - Son Lux (HMMA nominee)
• Weapons - Zach Cregger, Hays & Ryan Holladay

WILL THEY BE ELIGIBLE?
Lately the once ridiculously strict music branch has been getting ridiculously lax (a true 180) on the rules in this category and nominating things you'd think would be ineligible that feature a ton of songs or previously recorded material. Will they continue that trend? If so we could be looking at silly nominations or finalist placements for the following mostly adapted or heavily reliant on non-original songs

• Wicked For Good - Stephen Schwartz (9 noms / 3 wins) & John Powell (2 noms) - based on the musical by Stephen Schwartz. They were nominated last time so it would be particularly egregious to give them two consecutive nominations for a score that's barely noticeable given the beloved classic song score that fills the running time.
• KPop Demon Hunters - Grammy nominated but wall to wall songs (and the score category is not technically for that with rules against "diluted by songs")
• How to Train Your Dragon - John Powell (2 noms) - adapted from the animated film which he also composed. Grammy nominated
• Kiss of the Spider Woman - Sam Davis (never nominated) but chalk full of the Broadway score by Kander & Ebb
• Song Sung Blue - Scott Bomar (never nominated) but presumably chalk full of the songs of Neil Diamond

ORIGINAL SONG

Tier 1 - Predictions

WICKED FOR GOOD

"The Girl in the Bubble"
by Stephen Schwartz

Competition is stronger than we were expecting but we think one of the two Wicked songs (at least) will land. Glinda has always needed another song so it's our bet that this is the standout.And it comes toward the end of the film, too.

noms:
HMMA
wins:
n/a

 SINNERS

"I Lied To You"
Raphael Siddiq & Ludwig Goransson

So obviously the stand-out from the film. But they'll have more than one voting option.

noms:
Grammy, 2 HMMA noms
wins:
n/a

 SINNERS

"Last Time (I Seen the Sun)"
Alice Smith, Miles Caton, Ludwig Goransson

The soundtrack has multiple options but they submitted just two possibilities.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

KPOP DEMON
HUNTERS

"Golden"
EJAE & Mark Sonnenblick

It's been awhile since Oscar voters nominated huge #1 hits on the regular but we think this will land

noms:
3 Grammy noms including "Song of the Year", 2 HMMAnoms
wins:
n/a

 DIANE WARREN RELENTLESS

"Dear Me"
Diane Warren

Because Oscar's music branch are apparently all besties with  Diane Warren and can't help themselves, no matter how embarassing default voting becomes in competitive years.

noms:
HMMA
wins:
n/a

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

WICKED FOR GOOD

"The Girl in the Bubble"
by Stephen Schwartz

Competition is stronger than we were expecting but we think one of the two Wicked songs (at least) will land. This one is for Elphaba. 

noms:
HMMA
wins:
n/a

AVATAR FIRE AND ASH

"Dream As One"
Miley Cyrus, Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt, Simon Franglen

noms:
HMMA
wins:
n/a

THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE

"Clothed by the Sun"

It's tough to say what the Academy will make of this film but Daniel Blumberg did just win an Oscar for his musical gifts (The Brutalist)

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

HIGHEST 2 LOWEST

"Highest 2 Lowest"

noms:
2 HMMA noms
wins:
n/a

TRON ARES

"As Alive As You Need Me To Be"
Nine Inch Nails

noms:
Grammys
wins:
n/a

We'll keep a list of songs that would technically be eligible (but not all of them will be submitted by their film (as they don't want to split their votes).

• Ann Lee -"Clothed by the Sun" & "John's Running Song"
• Ballad of Wallis Island - "Ballad of Wallis Island", "Give Your Love", "Morning, Evening""Our Love" (HMMA nominee)
• Diane Warren Relentless  - "Dear Me" 
• Dogman - "Supa Good!!!"
• F1 - "Lose My Mind" "Just Keep Watching" "Drive" (Ed Sheeran - HMMA nominee)
• KPop Demon Hunters "Golden", "Sodapop", "Takedown", "What It Sounds Like"
• Hedda - "Stolen Tale"
• Highest 2 Lowest - "Highest 2 Lowest" (2 HMMA noms), "Trunks"
• The Legend of Ochi - "Through the Long and Lonely Night"
• Materialists "My Baby Got Nothing At All"
• Plainclothes "My San Francisco" (HMMA nominee)
• Sinners-- "I Lied to You","Pale Moon","Sinners", "Last Time I Seen the Sun""Dangerous", "Travelin" 
• The Smurfs - Original Rihanna Song
• Snow White - "Good Things Grow", "Waiting on a Wish", "Princess Problems", "All is Fair" "A Hand Meets a Hand"
• The Testament of Ann Lee "Clothed by the Sun"
• Train Dreams "Train Dreams"
• Tron Ares "As Alive As You Need Me To Be"
• Wicked for Good - "The Girl in the Bubble" (Glinda), "No Place Like Home" (Elphaba)
• Zootopia - "Zoo" (HMMA nominee)

SOUND

Tier 1 - Predictions

Christopher Scarabosio
(3 noms)

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

Christian T Cooke (1 nom)
FRANKENSTEIN

Tod A Maitland
(6 noms), and Paul Massey (11 noms | 1 win)
DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

previous nominees

• Caught Stealing Drew Kunin (3 noms), Craig Henighan (1 nom)
• Fantastic Four: First Steps Laura Hirschberg (2 noms | 1 win)
• House of Dynamite Thomas Varga (1 nom)
• How to Train Your Dragon Paul Massey (11 noms | 1 win) and Brian Chumney (2 noms)
• Jay Kelly Christopher Scarabosio (3 noms)
• Kiss of the Spider-Woman -Tom Fleischman (5 noms | 1 win), Jon Taylor (4 noms), Rich Schnupp, and Luciano Vignola
• The Lost Bus Oliver Tarney (5 noms)
• The Phoenician Scheme Christopher Scarabosio (3 noms)
• Superman Peter J Devlin (5 noms) and Nathan Robitaille (1 nom)

Never nominated.

• Dead Man's Wire Derek Sepe
• Fantastic Four: First Steps Danielle Dupre, Josh Gold
• Jurassic World Rebirth Peter Horner, Bjorn Ole Schneider
• Marty Supreme - Joe White
• Mickey 17 - Choi Tae-young and Eilam Hoffman
• Song Sung Blue - David J Schwartz
• Train Dreams - Lee Salevan