Tier 1 - Current Predictions

A curiously weak year for actressing showcases (in movies with across the board Oscar dreams at least). Where have all the juicy parts gone? Still there are always more than five worthy options. Which will voters love most this season? READ OUR NEW DISCUSSION

Teyana Taylor
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Perfidia Beverly Hills, a revolutionary... and rat.

Normally playing an unsympathetic woman who disappears halfway through the picture would spell doom. But in a thin actressing year we can't see a performance this good in a film this buzzy missing the list. Likely but precursors will need to cement it.

noms:
Gotham,  Globes,
wins:
n/a

Odessa A'Zion
never nominated
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

Role: Rachel, Marty's girlfriend.

While we initially suspected Paltrow was the one in a eomcback kidn of way, it's Odessa who is winning any non-Chalamet buzz. And coattails never hurt.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Amy Madigan
1 nomination
WEAPONS
(Warner Bros)

Role: Aunt Gladys, a child abducting witch

She's been the buzziest supporting player of the year in the mainstream audience sense of things for her instantly iconic creation. That said Oscar nods are tough to land for horror films AND they tend to stiff actors if the film is not in the Best Picture race. Needs critics awards!

noms:
AARP,  Globes,
wins:
n/a

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
never nominated
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Role: Agnes, a young mother caught in the middle of the stormy relationship between her sister and father

Critics were rapturous about the film and the supporting actress race is diffuse (weak?) enough for a key player that voters aren't yet familiar with. She's off to a good start with Gotham recognition.

noms:
Gotham,  Globes,
wins:
n/a

Glenn Close
8 noms
WAKE UP DEAD MAN
(Netflix)

Role: Martha Delacroix, a pious churchgoer

She won standout praise among the large ensemble -- but will Netflix make an effort for her for a franchise that has never been honored for acting?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Ariana Grande
1 nom
WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

Role: The co-lead role of Glinda the Good (that girl in the bubble!)

The Wicked women could repeat. But do the Oscars want to become the Emmys? At any rate she should have good character arc material to play this time.

noms:
 Globes,
wins:
n/a

Regina Hall
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Deandra, a trustworthy revolutionary in hiding

She's unsurprisingly very strong in her brief scenes as a weary revolutionary. The question is whether the screen time will work for a category that prefers actual leads (sigh). But the Best Picture buzz will help.

noms:
AARP , 
wins:
n/a

Margaret Qualley
never nominated
BLUE MOON (SPC)

Role: Elizabeth Weiland, a Yale student who wants to work in theater

Is SPC campaigns well it could be a major player in the acting race since it's completely acting focused, taking place in real time. Qualley's gifts are well-showcased. (Bonus points: also great in Honey Don't! this year)

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Rebecca Ferguson
never nominated
HOUSE OF DYNAMITE
(Netflix)

Role: Captain Olivia Walker, a senior officer in the Situation Room

She leads this tense ensemble thriller. She's been delivering in a big way for year so it feels like it's only a matter of time until it's "her year".

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Wunmi Mosaku
never nominated
SINNERS (Warner Bros)

Role: Annie, A hoodoo practicioner healer, and ex-wife of the protagonist

The Gotham nom is a nice start and she's memorable in the movie but in the end it's still a vampire movie. Which to date have resulted in zero acting nominations.

noms:
Gotham
wins:
n/a

Tier 3 - Long Shots

Gwyneth Paltrow
1 nom | 1 win
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

Role: Kay, a former actress, having an affair with Marty

She is no longer much of a "working" actress but we're excited for a comeback should she ever become interested again. But early reactions indicate it's Odessa that's most likely here.

noms:
AARP ,
wins:
n/a

Nina Hoss
never nominated
HEDDA
(Amazon)

Role: Eileen Lovborg

Sometimes they like "pairs" in the acting races so she and Tessa could rise or fall together. She has been showcased in many reviews. There's still time to mave inroad in a diffuse race.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Emily Blunt
1 nomination
THE SMASHING MACHINE
(A24)

Role: Dawn Staples

It took forever for Blunt to nab her first nomination but the second might be easier. Reviews were strong for her work but the movie doesn't seem to have found a fanbase.

noms:
 Globes,
wins:
n/a

Emily Watson
2 noms
HAMNET
(Focus)

Role: The mother of William Shakespeare

While the Academy has been moving far away from smallish supporting roles, she has the benefit of being a previous nominee and in a major Best Picture threat. 

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Jennifer Lopez
never nominated
KISS OF THE SPIDER-WOMAN
(Lionsgate)

Role: Ingrid Luna, an Old Hollywood Star, playing the dual role of Aurora (a magazine puiblisher) and the Spider-Woman (a sort of benevolent grim reaper)

It remains a real shame that Oscar snubbed her for totally worthy work (Hustlers) Festival buzz faded when the movie was met with a shrug in theaters. But this field is strange enough that we're not counting her completely out.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

FYC - Entertaining or in some cases brilliant performances but Oscar traction would probably take a miracle for various reasons

• 🔺 Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value (a tricky role)  Globes,
• 🔺 Kirsten Dunst - Roofman (brilliant, perpetually underrewarded)
• Mia Goth - Frankenstein (so much fun)
• Olivia Colman - Paddington in Peru (truly hilarious)
• Son Ye Jin - No Other Choice (brilliant but subtitled and Oscar is unreliable there - if this were an American picture, she'd be a shoo-in)
• Youn Yu Jeun - The Wedding Banquet (brilliant but they're unlikely to watch it even with this Oscar winner in the cast)

Outside possibilities at late-breaking buzz / traction?

• Helen Mirren - Goodbye June AARP nominee
• 🔺  Indya Moore - Father Mother Sister Brother -Gotham nominee
• ▾ Jamie Lee Curtis - Ella McCay
• Rebecca Hall - Peter Hujar's Day
• Sigourney Weaver - Avatar Fire and Ash AARP nominee
• Sissy Spacek - Die My Love
• Zoey Deuch - Nouvelle Vague

It seemed like they might have a shot (on paper) but buzz did not materialize for various reasons.

• ▾ Ayo Edebiri - After the Hunt
• Embeth Davidtz - Don't Let's Go to the Dog's Tonight
• Erin Kellyman - Eleanor the Great
• 🔺  Felicity Jones - Train Dreams (a key role in a film that has a decent shot at the Best Picture lineup_
• Hailee Steinfeld - Sinners
• Samantha Morton - Anemone
• ▾ Tilda Swinton - Ballad of a Small Player