Tier 1 - Current Predictions

A curiously weak year for actressing showcases (in movies with across the board Oscar dreams at least). Where have all the juicy parts gone? Still there are always more than five worthy options. Which will voters love most this season? READ OUR NEW DISCUSSION

Teyana Taylor
35 yrs old | 14th film |
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Perfidia Beverly Hills, a revolutionary... and rat.

Normally playing an unsympathetic woman who disappears halfway through the picture would spell doom. But in a thin actressing year we can't see a performance this good in a film this buzzy missing the list. Likely but precursors will need to cement it.

noms:
Gotham,  Globes,
wins:
LAFCA, Chicago, Dallas, DC,

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
36 yrs old | 6th film |
never nominated
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Role: Agnes, a young mother caught in the middle of the stormy relationship between her sister and father

Critics were rapturous about the film and the supporting actress race is diffuse (weak?) enough for a key player that voters aren't yet familiar with. She's off to a good start with Gotham recognition.

noms:
Gotham,  Globes,
wins:
NYFCO,

Amy Madigan
75 yrs old | 47th film | 1 nomination
WEAPONS
(Warner Bros)

Role: Aunt Gladys, a child abducting witch

She's been the buzziest supporting player of the year in the mainstream audience sense of things for her instantly iconic creation. That said Oscar nods are tough to land for horror films AND they tend to stiff actors if the film is not in the Best Picture race. Needs critics awards!

noms:
AARP,  Globes,
wins:
Boston, PCC, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle (Best Villain), SEFCA,

Elle Fanning
27 yrs old | 38th film | never nominated
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Role: Rachel Kemp, a star actress who takes a role that isn't the right fit and gets entangled in another family's drama

Critics have been rapturous about the film and she handles a trickly role very well. The Globe visibility will help.

noms:
Gotham,  Globes,
wins:
NYFCO,

Chase Infinitii
25 yrs old | debut film | never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

WILD CARD RISK

Role: Willa, a teenager thrust into a dangerous secretive war

While she's campaigning as "lead" which is totally respectable,voters are now so accustomed to category fraud that we've decided for the moment to predict that they'll throw her in here instead in a surprise for nomination morning.

noms:
Gotham Breakthrough, CCA, Globes (com),
wins:
Atlanta (Breakthrough), Chicago (Most Promising), Indiana (Breakthrough), NYFCO (Breakthrough),

Wunmi Mosaku
never nominated
SINNERS (Warner Bros)

Role: Annie, A hoodoo practicioner healer, and ex-wife of the protagonist

The Gotham nom was a nice start and she's memorable in the movie that's doing very well. Only 1 actor has ever been nominated for a vampire film (Willem Dafoe) but that could change this year.

noms:
Gotham
wins:
AAFCA, Michigan, Seattle,

Ariana Grande
1 nom
WICKED FOR GOOD
(Universal)

Role: The co-lead role of Glinda the Good (that girl in the bubble!)

The Wicked women could well repeat. But do the Oscars want to become the Emmys? At any rate she aced her character arc in the second half of what should have been one long movie.

noms:
 Globes,
wins:
n/a

Odessa A'Zion
never nominated
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

Role: Rachel, Marty's girlfriend.

Coattail nominations are very much a thing so A'Zion could land a nod without any precursor attention for her memorable role as Marty's crafty- but-not-quite-crafty-enough pregnant girlfriend.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Gwyneth Paltrow
1 nom | 1 win
MARTY SUPREME
(A24)

Role: Kay, a former actress, having an affair with Marty

If it's not A'Zion that benefits from Marty Supreme being the last truly major Oscar contender to open it could well be her meta-textual performance as a former star who is trying to revive her discarded acting career.

noms:
AARP ,
wins:
n/a

Regina Hall
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Deandra, a trustworthy revolutionary in hiding

She's unsurprisingly very strong in her brief scenes as a weary revolutionary. The question is whether the screen time will work for a category that prefers actual leads (sigh). But the Best Picture buzz will help.

noms:
AARP , 
wins:
n/a

Tier 3 - Long Shots

Nina Hoss
never nominated
HEDDA
(Amazon)

Role: Eileen Lovborg

Sometimes they like "pairs" in the acting races so she and Tessa could surprise together. On the other hand, precursors have been ignoring her riveting performance. Sigh.

noms:
n/a
wins:
Toronto,

Glenn Close
8 noms
WAKE UP DEAD MAN
(Netflix)

Role: Martha Delacroix, a pious churchgoer

She won standout praise among the large ensemble -- but precursors (even the AARP of all precursors) have ignored her. Are people tired of honoring her if they aren't going to actually give her the statue?

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Emily Blunt
1 nomination
THE SMASHING MACHINE
(A24)

Role: Dawn Staples

It took forever for Blunt to nab her first nomination. Her second is might take awhile too. The Globes are super fans but no one else has bitten.

noms:
 Globes,
wins:
n/a

Emily Watson
2 noms
HAMNET
(Focus)

Role: The mother of William Shakespeare

While the Academy has been moving far away from smallish supporting roles, she could be a nomination morning shock given the benefit of being a previous nominee in a major Best Picture threat. 

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Zoey Deutsch
never nominated
NOUVELLE VAGUE
(Netflix)

Role: Jean Seberg, an American actress in Paris

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Tier 4 - Vote Siphoners

Everyone who watches more than a few handfuls of movies each year will have their personal pets! It's our eternal dream that voters will watch more movies and Oscar races will be more volatile and nomination morning more surprising.

At any rate here are other Supporting options for voters (including anyone who received any honors this year no matter how unlikely they are to win Oscar voters)

• Ayo Edebiri - After the Hunt
• Da'Vine Joy Randolph - Eternity San Diego (Comedic Performance),
• Felicity Jones - Train Dreams (a key role in a film that has a good shot at the Best Picture lineup)
• Helen Mirren - Goodbye June AARP nominee  
• Indya Moore - Father Mother Sister Brother -Gotham nominee
• Jennifer Lopez - Kiss of the Spider-Woman
• Kirsten Dunst - Roofman (brilliant, perpetually underrewarded)
• Margaret Qualley - Blue Moon (also strong in Honey Don't this year)
• Mia Goth - Frankenstein (so much fun)
• Olivia Colman - Paddington in Peru (truly hilarious)
• Rebecca Ferguson - House of Dynamite
• Rebecca Hall - Peter Hujar's Day
• Sigourney Weaver - Avatar Fire and Ash AARP nominee
• Sissy Spacek - Die My Love
• Son Ye Jin - No Other Choice (brilliant but subtitled and Oscar is unreliable there - if this were an American picture, she'd be a shoo-in)
• Youn Yu Jeun - The Wedding Banquet (brilliant but they're unlikely to watch it even with this Oscar winner in the cast)
• Zoey Deuch - Nouvelle Vague