COSTUME DESIGN

This category can throw curveballs and at the moment I'm thinking that's Kokuho. But really I'm seeing this as six films very much in the running. The others, unfortunately, feel like long shots now. I'm sad that industry hasn't responded to how enormously well-executed Fantastic Four was for example. Easily the best-design work of any Marvel film that isn't named Black Panther. 

Tier 1 - Predictions

Paul Tazewell
2 noms / 1 win
WICKED: FOR GOOD

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

Kumiko Ogawa
KOKUHO

noms: --
wins: -- 

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

Miyako Bellizzi
never nominated
MARTY SUPREME

noms: --
wins: -- 

Alexandra Byrne
4 noms | 1 win
FANTASTIC FOUR: FIRST STEPS

noms: --
wins: -- 

Rita Azevedo
THE SECRET AGENT

noms: --
wins: -- 

Pascaline Chavanne
never nominated
NOUVELLE VAGUE

noms: --
wins: -- 

Tier 3 - Long Shots 

They'd be surprising for reasons of lack of buzz and/or standard voting habits.

• Blue Moon Consolata Boyle (3 noms)
• The Choral Jenny Beavan (12 noms / 3 wins)
• Hedda Lindsay Pugh () - CCA NOMINEE
• The History of Sound - Miyako Bellizi
• One Battle After Another Colleen Atwood (12 noms / 4 wins)
• Phoenician Scheme Milena Canonero (9 noms / 4 wins)
• Song Sung Blue - Ernesto Martinez
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Malogorzata Karpiuk
• Train Dreams - Malgorzata Turzanska
• Tron Ares - Christine Bieselin & Alix Friedberg
• The Ugly Stepsister - Manon Rasmussen

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Academy chose 16 finalists for this coveted prize. So these are now the only films that can be nominated. Sorry to some other gorgeous pictures -- many of which, of course were stronger than a handful of these options. But them's the breaks.

Tier 1 - Predictions

Lukasz Zal
2 noms
HAMNET

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

Dan Laustsen
2 noms
FRANKENSTEIN

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

Adolph Veloso
never nominated
TRAIN DREAMS

noms: CCA
wins: LAFCA,

Michael Bauman
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

noms: CCA
wins: Chicago, PCC,

Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be...

noms: --
wins: -- 

Maura Herce
never nominated
SIRAT

noms: --
wins: -- 

They made the 16 wide lide so they have a shot -- though they don't feel quite as likely somehow unless our radar is off (which is possible!)

• Ballad of a Small Player James Friend (1 nom | 1 win)
• Bugonia Robbie Ryan (2 noms)
• Die My Love Seamus McGarvey (2 noms)
• Nouvelle Vague David Chambile (never nominated)
• Song Sung Blue - Amy Vincent (never nominated)
• Sound of Falling - Fabian Gamper (never nominated)
• Wicked For Good - Alice Brooks (never nominated)

TIER 4 - ELIMINATED.
They didn't make the finals despite being EITHER high profile OR strong contenders for this honor based on merit, or both in a couple of cases.

• Avatar Fire and Ash Russell Carpenter (1 nom | 1 win)
• Jay Kelly - Linus Sandgren (1 nom | 1 win)
• Mickey 17 - Darius Khondji (2 noms)
• No Other Choice  Woo Hyun kim (never nominated)
• The Secret Agent - Evgenia Alexandrova (never nominated)
• Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere - Masanobu Takayanagi
• Testament of Ann Lee - William Rexer

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Tier 1 - Predictions

Tamara Deverell
1 nom
FRANKENSTEIN

noms: CCA
wins: Chicago,

Hannah Beachler
1 nom | 1 win
SINNERS

noms: CCA
wins: LAFCA,

Nathan Crowley
7 nom / 1 win
WICKED: FOR GOOD

noms:CCA
wins: -- 

Fiona Crombie
1 nom
HAMNET

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

Jack Fisk
3 noms
MARTY SUPREME

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be...

James Price
1 nom
BUGONIA

noms: --
wins: -- 

Alexandra Schaller
never nominated
TRAIN DREAMS

noms: --
wins: -- 

Florencia Martin
1 nom
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

noms: --
wins: -- 

Kasra Farahani
FANTASTIC FOUR

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

Dylan Cole & Ben Procter
1 nom
AVATAR FIRE AND ASH

noms: --
wins: -- 

Production Design does not use a multiple ballots process like Cinematography of VFX so anything is still theoretically possible.  

• Kiss of the Spider-Woman - Scott Chambliss
• Mickey 17 - Fiona Crombie (1 nom)
• No Other Choice - Ryu Seong-Hie
• The Phoenician Scheme Adam Stockhausen (4 noms | 1 win)
• Sentimental Value - Jørgen Stangeby Larsen
• Sound of Falling -
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Sam Bader
• Tron Ares - Darren Gilford
• Wake Up Dead Man - Rick Heinrichs (3 noms)

FILM EDITING

Another category that doesn't use the winnowing process. This category, more than most, has been historically tied to Best Picture appeal. The only exceptions tend to be very kinetic features like action films, thrillers, or musicals... which is why I've opted to predict F1 and why I think Hamnet is vulnerable despite being very well-edited.

Andy Jurgensen
never nominated
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

noms: CCA
wins: Chicago,

Ronald Bronstein
never nominated
MARTY SUPREME

noms: CCA
wins: : LAFCA

Stephen Mirrione
3 noms / 1 win
F1

noms: CCA
wins: : Boston,

Michael P Shawyer
never nominated
SINNERS 

noms: CCA
wins: Indiana

Affonso Goncalves, Chloe Zhao
(1 nom*)
HAMNET

noms: --
wins: -- 

Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be...

Evan Schiff
FRANKENSTEIN

noms: --
wins: -- 

Yorgos Mavropsaridi
2 noms
BUGONIA

noms: --
wins: -- 

Matheus Farias & Eduardo Serrano
THE SECRET AGENT

noms: --
wins: -- 

Parker Laramie
(never nominated)
TRAIN DREAMS

noms: --
wins: -- 

Kirk Baxter
3 noms | 2 wins
HOUSE OF DYNAMITE

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

Tier 3 - Longer Shots

Anything is still theoretically possible as this category does not use a multiple ballot system.

• Avatar Fire and Ash - various editors
• Jay Kelly - Valerio Bonelli & Rachel Durance
• Mission Impossible Final Reckoning - Eddie Hamilton (1 nom)
• No Other Choice -
• Perfect Neighbors - CCA NOMINEE
• Roofman - Ron Patane
• Sentimental Value - Olivier Bugge Coutte
• Song Sung Blue - Billy Fox
• Sound of Falling
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Sofia Subercaseaux
• Wicked For Good - Myron Kerstein (1 nom)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Tier 1 - Predictions

FRANKENSTEIN
Michael Hill, Jordan Samuel, Steve Newburn (never nominated)

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

THE SMASHING MACHINE

SINNERS

Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be...

We thought at one time these films would be considered for the 'bake-offs' either through merit or high profile or "Most" makeup work or previous Oscar love for the artists but it was not to be

• 28 Years Later - CCA NOMINEE
• Blue Moon
• Bugonia
• Christy
• Fantastic Four: The First Steps
• Hamnet
• The Phoenician Scheme
• Superman
• The Testament of Ann Lee
• Train Dreams
• Tron Ares
• Weapons - CCA NOMINEE

VISUAL EFFECTS

In a sad turn of events the Visual Effects branch ditched some of the most compelling visual effects of the year like those ink blot shadows of Thunderbolts, the retro cosmic Fantastic Four, and especially a film that should have been competitive for a win: Mickey 17. Sigh. What they saw in a couple of the actual finalists to place them above these, well, we'll never know.

Tier 1 - Predictions

AVATAR FIRE AND ASH

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

TRON ARES

noms: --
wins: -- 

JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH

noms: --
wins: -- 

FRANKENSTEIN

noms: CCA
wins: Indiana,

Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be...

SUPERMAN
Stephane Ceretti, Enrico Damm, Stephane Naze, Guy Williams (confirmed)

We'd predict it but for the fact that this branch have historically not been fans of the DCU. Still it made the list when the Marvel films didn't!

noms: CCA
wins: -- 

SINNERS

Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, Donnie Dean

While the Academy rarely goes for "Best Supporting VFX" Best Picture heat literally never hurts in any category.

noms: CCA
wins: Chicago,

THE LOST BUS

The film had garnered so little attention that we were actually shocked to see it make the finals.

noms: --
wins: -- 

WICKED FOR GOOD

We have to assume that it will take a few hits in the nomination tally department given that it's less popular than Part One.

noms: --
wins: -- 

TIER 3 - ELIMINATED.

They did not make it to the finals, despite their merits and/or high profiles so they can no longer be nominated.

• 28 Years Later
• Bugonia
• Captain America: Brave New World
• The Fantastic Four: First Steps
• How to Train Your Dragon
• Mickey 17
• Minecraft Movie
• Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning. CCA NOMINEE
• The Running Man
• Thunderbolts*