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95th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2022 / CEREMONY: March 12th, 2023
For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog
AND THE WINNER IS...
BRENDAN FRASER, THE WHALE
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Austin Butler wins: AACTA, Globes
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Colin Farrell wins: Globes, NYFCC, NSFC, and many other critics prizes
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Brendan Fraser wins: Critics Choice and some critics prizes
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Paul Mescal wins: --
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Bill Nighy wins: LAFCA |
Who should win? (vote daily) |
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How'd I do on my predictions? |
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| 5/5 A slam dunk. We thought Paul Mescal would get the passion votes and he did! | ||||
Who was left out? |
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| The precursors left the fifth spot a mystery with little agreement but Tom Cruise (Top Gun Maverick), Diego Calva (Babylon), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection), and Adam Sandler (Hustle) all got a little attention in precursor season. Because it was so diffuse some people thought late arrival Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) could surprise with no precursors. Sadly Gabriel Labelle (The Fabelmans) was way too young for Oscar voters who historically ignores men under 25 or so despite leading a sure-thing Best Picture nominated film. | ||||
Who WILL win? |
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It's a tight race between Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) but Fraser has the edge due to the media fawning over his 'comeback' story. Narratives always help. Still, it's not over til it's over and Farrell has the advantage of a very well loved movie that is a potential spoiler to win Best Picture (if EEAAO falters) UPDATE: One we moved past the Globes, Austin Butler emerged as the main challenger to Brendan Fraser with a BAFTA win. But Fraser's comeback narrative proved too irresistible to voters. |
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Who SHOULD win? |
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| Leaving that up to you in the poll above. | ||||
HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED? Please note these are not critiques but just an acknowledgement that it takes more than a good performance to get votes at awards shows |
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TRIVIA TIME The first time ever that we've had an all first-time nominee list in Lead Actor (since the nominations went to 5 per acting category back in 1935 that is). On to more individualistic trivia now... |
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Born in Anaheim California (first Oscar nominee from Anaheim? Couldn't find anyone else) Star Sign: Leo Dating model Kaia Gerber (Cindy Crawford's daughter). No children 1 appearance on Broadway (Iceman Cometh, 2018) Select Other Awards 1 Globe (Elvis) |
Born in Castleknock, Ireland (the first Oscar nominee from Castleknock? Couldn't find anyone else) Star Sign: Gemini 2 Children. (Still dating Kelly McNamara who he met through the band U2?) Select Other Awards 2 Globes (In Bruges, Banshees) |
Born in Indianapolis, Indiana (the first Oscar nominee from Indianapolis was 3 time nominee Clifton Webb back in the 1940s) Star Sign: Sagittarius 3 Children. Dating makeup artist Jeanne Moore At 6'2" the tallest of the male acting nominees this year (tied with Brian Tyree Henry in Supporting) 1 appearance on Broadway (Elling, 2010) Select Other Awards 1 Critics Choice Award (The Whale) 1 SAG Award (Cast Crash) |
Born in Maynooth, Ireland (the first Oscar nominee from Maynooth? Couldn't find anyone else) Star Sign: Aquarius No children (Still dating singer Phoebe Bridgers?) Just completed a run as "Stanley Kowalski" in A Streetcar Named Desire in London. Here's hoping it transfers to Broadway! Select Other Awards 1 Emmy nomination (Normal People) 1 BAFTA win (Normal People) |
Born in Caterham, UK (the first Oscar nominee from Caterham? Couldn't find anyone else) Star Sign: Sagittarius Single with 1 Child. (Rumored to be dating fashion editor icon Anna Wintour!) He's the only Best Actor nominee this year that has been Tony nominated (Skylight, 2015) Select Other Awards 2 BAFTA wins (Love, Actually and State of Play) And did you know he's a favourite of the Saturn Awards (sci-fi/fantasy) with 3 nominations there? |