Welcome

The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. All material herein is written by our team. (This site is not for profit but for an expression of love for cinema & adjacent artforms.)

Follow TFE on Substackd

Powered by Squarespace
DON'T MISS THIS
What'cha Looking For?
Subscribe

 

Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp ActressDirector 

Screenplays | Visuals | Music and Sound | Animation & Docs | International Film

98th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2025 / CEREMONY: 2026
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

 

PREDICTIONS AS OF DECEMBER 21

 

 

Tier 1 - Current Predictions

At the moment, in mid November, these five look the strongest... but a lot can happen between mid November and mid January!

Stellan Skarsgård
never nominated
SENTIMENTAL VALUE
(Neon)

Role: [CO-LEAD] Gustav Born, a once-great filmmaker eager to reconnect with his angry actress daughter

This showcase performance as an estranged difficult director / father seems like the perfect opportunity to honor his enduring under-awarded career.

noms:
Gotham, EFA (Lead), CCA HCA (Drama),  Globes,
wins:
LAFCA, Boston, Dallas,
San Diego,

Benicio Del Toro
2 noms | 1 win
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Sergio, a local sensei and community activist.

 A charistmatically zen performance amidst the chaos of this ride of a movie. We'd be worried about a snub (he makes it look way too easy and they like showy work) but it's got Best Picture heat so we think he's safe.

 

noms:
Gotham, CCA HCA (Com),  Globes,
wins:
Chicago, Indiana, PCC, San Francisco, SEFCA, Toronto, DC,

Sean Penn
2 wins
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Role: Lockjaw, a hyper masculine racist soldier with a fetish for black women.

A deeply uncomfortable always riveting creation -- Penn hasn't been this great since Milk. We think it's a done deal. But we're not "locking" him just yet because the supporting races sometimes throw weird curveballs around much-honored performers.

noms: CCA
HCA (Com), Globes,
wins:
Seattle,

Paul Mescal
1 nom
HAMNET
(Focus)

Role: [CO-LEAD] William Shakespeare grieving the loss of his child 

The most exciting young actor to emerge this decade. Wonderful again as the iconic playwright. 

This is the year's absolute worst and most shameless case of category fraud. Boo to everyone involved!

noms: CCA
HCA (Drama),  Globes,
wins:
n/a

Jacob Elordi
never nominated
FRANKENSTEIN
(Netflix)

Role: [CO-LEAD] The Creature, the childlike reanimated corpse of legend.

Best in show by a country mile in Del Toro's uneven epic. His work as "The Creature" is physically inspired, intellectually curious, and emotionally wounded.

noms:
Gotham, CCA HCA (Drama),  Globes,
wins:
NYFCO,
good PR:
Gotham Vanguard Tribute

 

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers

Mid November is still "early" in that the precursors haven't narrowed things down yet. People can still rise or fall from (projected) favor.

 

Adam Sandler
never nominated
JAY KELLY
(Netflix)

Role: Ron Sukenick, a movie star's manager / friend.

A lot of people feel he steals the show. But, despite precursor attention, no one seems particularly passionate about the film. His unsuccessful but "almost there" Unsung Gems campaign will absolutely not hurt his chances this time. It could happen.

noms:
Gotham, CCA HCA (Com),  (Com),  Globes,
wins:
n/a
good PR:
AARP (Tribute)

Andrew Scott
never nominated
BLUE MOON
(Sony Pictures Classics)

Role: Legendary composer Richard Rodgers on the night of the premiere of his instant classic "Oklahoma!"

 He won a well deserved Silver Bear at Berlin for his inspired take on this role. You can feel the entire history of his relationship with Lorenz Hart (his previous songwriting partner)  in his reactions and line readings. Statue worthy work but because he's an actual supporting character he probably won't be nominated (sigh)

 

noms:
Gotham
wins:
n/a

William H Macy
1 nomination
TRAIN DREAMS
(Netflix)

Role: Arnt, a nomadic logger with explosives expertise

He's the best he's been in many years as an old man at odds with his job given that he's attuned to the beauty of the natural world. Oscar voters tend to steer clear of really small roles these days but if they didn't he'd be a major threat.

noms:
n/a
wins:
n/a

Delroy Lindo
never nominated
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

Role: Delta Slim, a local music legend.

Even when the Academy likes genre films they don't always spring for the actors therein. (That said they kind of owe Lindo for passing over his great work in Da 5 Bloods)

noms:
HCA (Drama)
wins:
n/a
good PR:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Miles Caton
never nominated
SINNERS
(Warner Bros)

Role: Sammie, a young musician

Even when the Academy likes genre films they don't always spring for the actors therein. But if they feel like claiming "discovery!" he could surprise.

noms:
HCA (Drama)CCA (Young Actor),
wins:
Michigan (Breakthrough AND supporting wins), DC (Young Actor),
good PR:
Gotham Cast Tribute

Tier 3- Vote Siphoners

If voters watched a lot of movies this year (they don't) they would have a great many options. But for those few voters who do, here are some men that might end up on a few errant adventurous  ballots.