ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tier 1 - Predictions

Stats reflect Screenplay categories only!
* = nominated or won in other categories

Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
(never nominated)
MARTY SUPREME

NYFCC win, CCA nom,  Globes nom,

Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
(1 nomination*) 
SENTIMENTAL VALUE

EFA Nominee, CCA nom,  Globes nom, San Francisco,

Noah Baumbach
(3 noms*) & Emily Mortimer (never nominated)
JAY KELLY

CCA nom, 

Jafar Panahi
(never nominated)
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT

EFA Nominee, Gotham win, LAFCA win , Chicago, 
NYFCO, San Diego,
 Globes nom,

Robert Kapownever
(never nominated)
BLUE MOON

Boston win,

Ryan Coogler
(never nominated*)
SINNERS

Atlanta, NBR, CCA nom,   Globes nom, AAFCA, Indiana, SEFCA, Toronto,

Noah Oppenheim
(never nominated)
A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE

Kleber Mendoça Filho
(never nominated)
THE SECRET AGENT

Bradley Cooper (2 noms*) & Will Arnett
(never nominated)
IS THIS THING ON?

FYC -Other Fine "Original" Options... but how many films will the writers branch actually watch?

• If I had Legs I'd Kick You - Mary Bronstein
• Roofman - Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn
• Sorry Baby - Eva Victor.  Spirit nomination, CCA nom, 
• Twinless - James Sweeney Spirit nomination,

Previous Nominees that could theoretically return...

• Ella McCay - James L Brooks 
• F1 The Movie - by Joseph Kosinski & Ehren Kruger
• Phoenician Scheme - Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
• The Testament of Ann Lee - Mona Fastvold

Still more Original Screenplays to Choose From...

• After the Hunt - Nona Garrett
• Anemone  - Ronan Day-Lewis & Daniel Day-Lewis
• Big Bold Beautlful Journey - Seth Reiss
• Eleanor the Great - Tory Kamen
• Eternity -Patrick Cunnane & David Freyne
• La Grazia - Paolo Sorrentino EFA NOMINEE
• Lurker -Alex Russell Spirit nomination,
• Rental Family - Hikari & Stephen Blahut
• Sirat - Santiago Fillol, Oliver Laxe EFA NOMINEE
• The Smashing Machine - Benny Safdie
• Sound of Falling - Mascha Schilinski, Louise Peter EFA NOMINEE
• Splitsville Covino & Marvin Spirit nomination,

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tier 1 - Predictions as of November 11

Stats reflect Screenplay categories only!
* = nominated or won in other categories

Chloe Zhao
(1 nom* ) & Maggie O'Farrell (never nominated)
HAMNET
(Focus)

Based on the novel of the same name by Maggie O'Farrell

CCA nom,  Globes nom,

P.T. Anderson
(5 noms*)
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
(Warner Bros)

Loosely based on Tomas Pynchon's novel "Vineland"

Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Indiana, PCC, San Francisco, SEFCA, Toronto,
 CCA nom,  Globes nom, 

Guillermo Del Toro

(2 noms*)
FRANKENSTEIN

 Based on the novel "Frankenstein; or, The Modern Prometheus" by Mary Shelley

CCA nom, 

Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar (1 nom each)

TRAIN DREAMS

Based on the novella of the same name by Denis Johnson

NBR, CCA nom, 

Will Tracy
(never nom'ed)

BUGONIA

Based on Jang Joon-hwan's film & screenplay Save the Green Planet!

CCA nom, San Diego,

Rian Johnson
(2 noms)
WAKE UP DEAD MAN

Based on characters from the  Knives Out franchise by Rian Johnson

Park Chan Wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Jayhe Lee, Don McKellar
NO OTHER CHOICE

Based on the novel "The Ax" by Donald E Westlake

CCA nom, 

Nia DaCosta
(never nominated)
HEDDA

Harry Lighton
PILLION

Based on "Box Kill" by Adam Mars-Jones

Gotham win,

Winnie Holzman & Dana Fox
WICKED FOR GOOD

Based on the novel by Gregory Maguire and the Broadway musical with music and lyrics by Stephen Schwartz

Other "Adapted" Options this season

• Avatar Fire and Ash  - James Cameron, Amanda Silver, and based on the characters created by James Cameron
• Ballad of a Small Player - Rowan Joffe based on the novel by Lawrence Osborne
• Deliver Me From Nowhere - Scott Cooper  Based on the nonfiction book "Deliver Me From Nowhere: The Making of Bruce Springsteen's Nebraska" by Warren Zanes
• Don't Let's Go to the Dog Tonight - Embeth Davidtz based on the book by Alexandra Fuller
• Highest 2 Lowest -  Spike Lee
• The History of Sound - Ben Shattuck based on two of his own short stories
• Kiss of the Spider Woman - Bill Condon based on the stage musical by Kander & Ebb & Terence McNally and the book by Manuel Puig.
• The Life of Chuck - Mike Flanagan based on the story of Stephen King
• The Lost Bus - Brad Ingelsby & Paul Greengrass Based on the nonfiction book "Paradise: One Town's Struggle to Survive an American Wildfire" by Lizzie Johnson
• Song Sung Blue. - Craig Brewer based on the documentary of the same name about a Neil DIamond Tribute Band.