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March 3 - Frank Zappa on And the winner is... ANORA
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97th Oscars. Predictions for the Films of 2024 CEREMONY: March 2, 2025
For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

OSCAR NIGHT: Sunday March 2, 2025

AND THE NOMINEES ARE...

SCROLL DOWN FOR ADAPTED

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Stats reflect writing categories only. An asterisk * means they've also been nominated in other categories, this year or previously

ANORA Sean Baker first nomination!*	THE BRUTALIST Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold first nominations!*	A REAL PAIN Jesse Eisenberg first nomination!*	SEPTEMBER 5 Moritz Binder & Tim Fehlbaum first nominations!	THE SUBSTANCE Coralie Fargeat first nomination!*
WHAT SHOULD WIN ? VOTE DAILY!
. online polls
WHAT WAS LEFT OUT?
The other movies that felt like they had a good or at least feasible shot here included Challengers, Hard Truths, All That We Imagine As Light, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig. But it's a bummer that Problemista and A Different Man never got any traction whatsoever in this category.
WHAT WILL WIN?
That's a very good question. Prior to the nominations I assumed that A Real Pain had this in the bag. But given its underperformance in nominations, the heat really shifted to Anora (frontrunner) or The Brutalist (if and only if it takes Best Picture). On the other hand, the industry might still want to honor Jesse Eisenberg. So I'm guessing A Real Pain. It feels like a two way race essentially. PREDICTION: ANORA (whether not it wins Best Picture) ALTERNATE: A REAL PAIN
WHAT SHOULD WIN? NATHANIEL'S PICK
Ask me again later? I'm leaning *Anora* but could be talked into A Real Pain.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Stats reflect writing categories only. An asterisk * means they've also been nominated in other categories, this year or previously

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN James Mangold 2nd nomination!* & Jay Cocks 3rd nomination Based on "Dylan Goes Electric" by Elijah Wald	CONCLAVE Peter Straughan 2nd nomination Adapted from the suspense novel by Robert Harris	EMILIA PEREZ Jacques Audiard*, Thomas Bidegain, Lea Mysius, Nicolas Livechhi first nominations for all! Based on "Listen" by Boris Razon	THE NICKEL BOYS RaMell Ross* & Joslyn Barnes first nomination! Adapted from the Pulitzer winning novel by Colson Whitehead	SING SING Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar , Clarence Maclin, John Divine G Whitfeld first nominations for all! Based on the play "Breakin' the Mummy's Code" by Brent Buell and the article "The Sing Sing Follies" by John H Richardson
WHAT SHOULD WIN ? - VOTE DAILY!
. online polls
WHAT WAS LEFT OUT?
Other films that seemed like they had a decent shot included The Room Next Door and The Wild Robot. But, given the outcome of the nominations in general, maybe I'm Still Here was the one in sixth place? The highest profile long shots were probably Dune Part Two, Queer, and Wicked. But the category should have been more competitive overall.
WHAT WILL WIN?
For reasons that I can't quite figure, Conclave (which I like a lot) instantly became the favourite here as if it never had any competition at all. PREDICTION: Conclave ALTERNATE: none... though one assumes Nickel Boys is running a distant second.
WHAT SHOULD WIN? NATHANIEL'S PICK
The category isn't particularly exciting this year with at least three of the nominees getting much more mileage towards their overall quality from things that aren't screenplay related whether that's music, cinematography, or from the general chaos of risk-taking. Conclave is well written but doesnt' Sing Sing have a cooler story of how it took shape? .