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94th Oscars. Honoring the Films of 2021 / CEREMONY: March 27th, 2022
 For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only discuss on the blog

  

CODA WON

AND THE NOMINEES WEREE...

POWER OF THE DOG (Jane Campion)
Netflix
Nov 17th

REVIEW | PODCAST | TOP TEN LIST | EDITOR INTERVIEW

wins: Globe Drama + over 20 critics groups
noms: BAFTACritics Choice, Globes, PGA, DGA, AARP

12 Noms / 1 Win

Jane Campion's gorgeously realized  western on toxic masculinity and uncomfortable new in-law situations has captured cinephile and Academy hearts


 

DUNE PART ONE
(Denis Villeneuve)
Warner Bros
Oct 22nd

REVIEW | ON THE COSTUMES

wins: 1 critics group
noms: BAFTACritics ChoiceGlobes, PGA, DGA

10 Noms / 6 Wins

Denis Villeneuve's dream project, an adaptation of the classic sci-fi tale is off to a majestic eery and memorable start.

BELFAST
(Kenneth Branagh)
Focus
Nov 12th

QUICK TAKE | BRANAGH INTERVIEW

wins: a couple of critics groups
noms: BAFTACritics ChoiceGlobes, PGA, DGA, AARP, SAG (Cast)

7 Noms / 1 Win

Kenneth Branagh's passion project memoir about his own childhood during The Troubles in Ireland charmed the Academy and festival audiences alike.

WEST SIDE STORY
(Steven Spielberg)
20th Century
Dec 10th

QUICK TAKE | SPIELBERG'S BEST | MIKE FAIST INTERVIEW | BEST SHOT

wins: Globes Musical
noms: Critics ChoiceGlobes, DGA, PGA, AARP

7 Noms / 1 Win

Steven Spielberg remade Oscar's favourite musical of all time, West Side Story. And they were (mostly) pleased with the results.

KING RICHARD
(Reinaldo Marcus Green)
Warner Bros
Nov 19th

QUICK TAKEREVIEW

 wins: 1 critics group
noms: Critics ChoiceGlobes, PGA, SAG (Cast), AARP

6 Noms / 1 Win

An unexpected parent's angle view of the rise of tennis superstars Venus and Serena Williams. Right in the Academy's wheelhouse and very well executed.

DON'T LOOK UP
(Adam McKay)
Netflix
Dec 24th

QUICK TAKE | REVIEW

wins: --
noms: BAFTACritics ChoiceGlobes, PGA, SAG (Cast)

4 Noms

Oscar's currrent favourite satirist, Adam McKay, took on our avoidant media culture and climate change. Critics balked but the Academy sang along.

 

DRIVE MY CAR
(Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Janus Films
Nov 24th

REVIEW | ON THE SCREENPLAY

wins: NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC plus a few other critics groups and dozens of "best international film" wins
noms: --

4 noms / 1 win

Film critics made this three hour intellectual drama about a theater director in mourning into a pet cause. It paid off with strong arthouse ticket sales and the Academy's blessing.

NIGHTMARE ALLEY
(Guillermo del Toro)
Searchlight
Dec 17th

BEST SHOT

wins: --
noms: Critics Choice

4 noms

Del Toro ofted for a noir remake as follow-up to his own Oscar sensation (Shape of Water). Audiences didn't turn out and reviews were mixed but the Academy was still feeling their new Del Toro fandom.

CODA
(Adam McKay)
Apple TV+
Aug 13th

WINNER

REVIEW

wins: PGA, SAG (Cast), 1 critics group
noms: Critics ChoiceGlobes, PGA, SAG (Cast)

 3 Noms / 3 Wins

This heartwarming family drama Sundance sensation was the little film that could for 2021, lingering in hearts long after its summer release.

LICORICE PIZZA
(Paul Thomas Anderson)
MGM/UA
Nov 26th

wins: NBR and a handful of critics groups
noms: BAFTACritics ChoiceGlobes, PGA, , DGA

3 Noms

Paul Thomas Anderson meandering 70s nostalgia vibes comedy hit a critical sweet spot and though it arguably underperformed on nomination morning, he's past due for a win.

 

 
HOW'D WE DO ON OUR PREDICTIONS?
8/10 We underestimated Nightmare Alley (had it in roughly 14th place) and thought that Drive My Car would just miss (but correctly predicted it's three other nominations). I had predicted Being the Ricardos (which turned out was only well-loved by the acting branch) and Tragedy of Macbeth  figuring that recency bias and pedigree would just barely boost it over the edge.
WHAT WAS LEFT OUT?
Being the Ricardos, Encanto, Flee, Tragedy of Macbeth, The Lost Daughter, and No Time To Die all scored three nominations indicating they were well watched/liked by the Academy. But we think the 11th place finisher was probably tick tick BOOM! given that key Film Editing nomination to go with its Best Actor bid.
WHAT WILL WIN?
 The Power of the Dog has the critical passion, the passionate fanbase, and the sheer nomination numbers to suggest that it's the one to beat. But it will have to ward off Belfast's passionate fans and Don't Look Up's zeitgeist message-movie appeal to do so.
WHAT SHOULD WIN?
 Many film critics are arguing for Drive My Car but we are firmly entrenched in the Power of the Dog corner. We rarely get to see our favourite of the year win so this will be quite a treat if it pulls it off. 

 

OTHER SERIOUS AND SILLY RANKINGS

Longest to Shortest RT/Metacritic Scores Do they pass the Bechdel Test? MPAA Ratings Nathaniel's Preference
over two ½ hours
1 Drive My Car 179
2 West Side Story 156
3 Dune 155
4 Nightmare Alley 150

well over two hours

5 King Richard 144 min
6 Don't Look Up 138 min
7 Licorice 133 min

just over two hours

8 Power of 126 min

under two hours

9 CODA 111 min
10 Belfast 98 min

ecstatic reviews
Drive My Car 98/91
Power of the Dog 94/89
Licorice Pizza 91/90

very well received
West Side Story 92/85
CODA 96/75
King Richard 90/76

mixed to positive
Belfast 87/75
Dune 83/74
Nightmare Alley 80/69

panned
Don't Look Up 56/49

YES
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Power of the Dog
West Side Story

unsure - would need a rewatch
Belfast
Drive My Car

no

Nightmare Alley
Unrated
Drive My Car

R

Don't Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog

PG-13

Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
West Side Story 
masterpiece
1 Power of the Dog 
top ten list

very good

2 West Side Story 
3 Drive My Car
4 Dune 

good / solid stuff

5 CODA 
6 King Richard
7 Licorice Pizza 
8 Belfast 

meh 

9 Nightmare Alley
10 Don't Look Up 
Ranked by Horniness (characters, mood, film) Most likely to become a Broadway musical Death Count  Recency Bias Boost (by release date) Ranked By Global Box Office

You up?
Nightmare Alley
Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Don't Look Up

In Horny Matrimony
CODA
Belfast

Mixed messages
Drive My Car
Licorice Pizza

Longing looks but saving the worm-riding for chapter two
Dune 

N/A
King Richard

already is
West Side Story

we can see it
CODA
Belfast
Nightmare Alley

jukebox musical
Licorice Pizza

stranger things have happened
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Dune
Power of the Dog
Drive My Car

corpses everywhere
Don't Look Up
Dune

dangerous places to be
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

rabbits, cattle, and...?
Power of the Dog

drive-by scene
King Richard

one soul
Belfast

precise mourning
Drive My Car

To quote Morticia Addams "oh no... they live"
CODA
Licorice Pizza

Late December
1 Don't Look Up
2 Nightmare Alley

Early December
3 West Side Story

November
4 Licorice Pizza
5 Drive My Car
6 King Richard
7 Power of the Dog
8 Belfast

October
9 Dune

Summer
10 CODA

Blockbuster
🔺1 Dune $400 million

Pandemic Struggles
🔺2 West Side Story $72
🔺3 Belfast $37
🔺4 King Richard $36 
🔺Nightmare Alley $36
🔺6 Licorice Pizza $27

Art House Hit
🔺7 Drive My Car $4

N/A streaming titles
CODA
Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up

         

 

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Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supp Actor | Supp ActressDir 
Screenplays | Visual | Aural | Animation | International Feature