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will win: cuarón (and his filmography is so fine, we won't at all mind)
should win: mcqueen
Nathaniel's ballot

Statistics do not include documentaries or short films. Curiously only Cuaron and McQueen have been winning critics prizes*. While it's not atypical for there to be much agreement between critics organizations these days, usually you have more than 2 names honored. Perhaps it was their dominance that shut Paul Greengrass out and allowed three directors with intense fanbases in the Academy to stick the landing?

*no, NBR is not a critics prize

THE OSCAR NOMINEES ARE...

Alfonso Cuarón GRAVITY 52 yrs old \| 6 features 6 nominations *first nomination in this* category** previous wins:BFCA, DGA, Los Angeles , Globe + several critics group	Steve McQueen TWELVE YEARS A SLAVE 44 yrs old \| 3 features *first nomination!* previous wins: New York, Boston , Spirit, + several critics group previous noms: Globe, BFCA, DGA	Martin Scorsese THE WOLF OF WALL STREET 12 noms \| 1 win (8/1 in this category) previous noms: DGA, BAFTA,	David O Russell AMERICAN HUSTLE 55 yrs old \| 7 features 5th nomination (3rd in this category) previous noms: Globe, DGA, BFCA	Alexander Payne 53 yrs old \| 6 features 7 noms, 2 wins (3/0 in this category) NEBRASKA previous noms: n/a
the director's branch admires ambition	This film will help them to accept his artistry at last. It's undeniable.	he's won a nomination for divisive movies before. people are marvelling that he has something this wild in him still	he's been nominated for his last three pictures! he's caught messy lightning in a bottle with stars at the peak of their charisma.	he's been nominated for his last three pictures! Even without precursor help.
on the outside looking in? Tough break for Paul Greengrass, who seemed like a major threat for Captain Phillips. But in the end Oscar voters in the major categories retreated to their safe zones: Amy Adams, Meryl Streep, Alexander Payne etcetera. It's a year of big honors for the regular players

THE OSCAR NOMINEES ARE...

on the outside looking in? Tough break for Paul Greengrass, who seemed like a major threat for Captain Phillips. But in the end Oscar voters in the major categories retreated to their safe zones: Amy Adams, Meryl Streep, Alexander Payne etcetera. It's a year of big honors for the regular players