Costume Design

 Colleen Atwood
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
9th nom | 3rd win!
CDG NOMINEE -FANTASY

Will Win: COLLEEN ATWOOD, Alice in Wonderland
Neither Sandy Powell (The Tempest) nor Colleen Atwood (Alice in Wonderland) have ever won in a year when the other was not nominated. Since Oscar's two favorite contemporary designers are both here again, and the Academy seems to want to keep their nomination and win stats dead even -- I'm sure this is subconscious ;) -- I'm predicting Atwood.
SHOULD WIN: Antonella Cannarozzi, I AM LOVE
Tilda has never looked so beautiful and there are extraordinary color choices throughout, including characters reflecting each other's color palettes and Tilda carefully removed from the other players. Plus it's just beautifully in synch with the larger grand aesthetic of the film. And also because in a year following Sandy Powell's speech about the lack of recognition for designers working within contemporary films, wouldn't a contemporary film winning be a beautiful next step?

Snubbed?
CDG nominees that were passed over include Michael Wilkinson and Christine Bieselen Clark for TRON LEGACY,  Michael Kaplan for  BURLESQUE, Mark Bridges for THE FIGHTER and Jeffrey Kurland for INCEPTION

my ballot

Cinematography

Matthew Libatique
BLACK SWAN
1st nomination!
ASC NOMINEE

Wally Pfister
INCEPTION
4th nomination | 1st win!
ASC WINNER

 Roger Deakins
TRUE GRIT
9th nom | 0 wins
ASC NOMINEE

Who won: WALLY PFISTER, Inception.
After this and Avatar, they're thinking more about the "wow" overall visual factor than about the actual lighting design. Maybe? Just a theory.

Should've Won MATTHEW LIBATIQUE, Black Swan.
Nobody did more for their film this year, in this category than Libatique with his inky shadows, spotlights, and overall boldness of execution. This is another director/dp collaboration (like Deakins/Coens and Pfister/Nolan) that Oscar voters might want to honor.

Snubbed? Well this is the exact ASC Guild list but some people will surely feel for the men behind the cameras of The Way Back, 127 Hours, Shutter Island and more. Here's my ballot.

Art Direction

Guy Dyas
INCEPTION
1st nomination!
ADG NOMINEE (FANTASY)

Eve Stewart
THE KING'S SPEECH
2nd nomination
ADG NOMINEE (PERIOD)

Who Won STROMBERG, ALICE IN WONDERLAND

Snubbed ADG guild nominees that were overlooked include Oscar favorite Dante Ferretti for Shutter Island, Therese DePrez for Black Swan, Geoffrey Kirkland for Get Low, Arthur Max for Robin Hood and Donald Graham Burt for The Social Network. 

Was this really necessary?  Stuart Craig has done a phenomenal job on the Potter series but he's already been nominated for it twice before and you know he'll be back for the finale. Was it necessary to deny someone else a nomination this year when the big new set this year was a TENT. I feel bad for the other designers. No knock against his talent but it seems VERY redundant when they must know they're going to reward him for the whole series next year.

my ballot

Film Editing

Andrew Weisblum
BLACK SWAN
1st nomination!

 Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
2nd nomination | 1ST WIN!

Did Win and Shoud've Won: This is where they honored THE SOCIAL NETWORK. The editing works brilliantly for the film's shape and speed and it's also showy enough to woo voters who vote generally vote on "most editing".

Snubbed: the big miss in terms of guild favor was Lee Smith for INCEPTION.

my list

Visual Effects

Will Win/Should Win  INCEPTION takes this one with ease.

SNUBBED FINALISTS

TRON LEGACY  -ves nominee
SCOTT PILGRIM VS THE WORLD

SEMI-FINALISTS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY ELIMINATED
 

CLASH OF THE TITANS
THE PRINCE OF PERSIA: THE SANDS OF TIME
THE LAST AIRBENDER
THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE VOYAGE OF THE DAWN TREADER
PERCY JACKSON & THE OLYMPIANS: THE LIGHTNING THIEF
SHUTTER ISLAND
UNSTOPPABLE
THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE

did not make the semi-finals
TOY STORY 3 | BLACK SWAN -ves nominee ("supporting effects") | THE TEMPEST

Make Up

WHO WON THE WOLFMAN. Rick Baker comes full circle. He's won a bunch of times and the first time was for another werewolf picture, AN AMERICAN WEREWOLF IN LONDON.

Finalists that were not nominated
True to form the makeup branch has narrowed down their own field to a random group of achievements

ALICE IN WONDERLAND
THE FIGHTER
JONAH HEX
TRUE GRIT

Not In the Running
Films that were not chosen and are no longer eligible despite interesting, showy or impressive makeup work include:
BLACK SWAN, SHUTTER ISLAND, CONVICTION, THE TEMPEST, SPLICE