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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

AND THE NOMINEES ARE...

Sally Hawkins 
41 yrs old | 24 films | 2nd nomination
THE SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 1st

Role: a mute cleaning woman who falls in love with a secret government "assett" a creature of the sea

Previous wins: LAFCA

Review | More Sally

★ Frances McDormand
60 yrs old | 37 films | 5th nomination | 1 win
THREE BILLBOARDS
Oct 13th

Role: an angry grieving mother who has issues with her town and the police force

Previous wins: SAG  | Globe

Review | More Frances

Margot Robbie
27 yrs old | 13 films
1st nomination!
I, TONYA
Dec 8th

Role: Olympic figure skater Tonya Harding, forever scandalous

Previous wins: Critics Choice (comedy) 

Review | More Margot

Saoirse Ronan
23 yrs old | 18 films | 3rd nomination
LADY BIRD
Nov 3rd

Role: A precocious senior who keeps falling in love and fighting with her mom while planning her escape from Sacramento

Previous wins: Gotham | NYFCC
 Globe

Review | More Saoirse

Meryl Streep
68 yrs old | 54 films | 21st nomination | 3 wins
THE POST
Dec 22nd

Role: Katharine Graham taking her newspaper, the Washington Post public just as a major press threatening scandal erupts

Previous wins: NBR

Review | More Meryl

 
 
IN THE READERS POLL YOU CHOSE SAOIRSE!

 
HOW'D THEY GET NOMINATED?
27% Role - Oscar has always loved mute characters.
24% Performance. Sally is expressive and unique onscreen
16% Lockstep precursor nominee agreement
15% Best Picture heat
7% Octavia/Richard extending her performance with dialogue
2% Maudie
62% Role + Performance as one. Mildred is such a marriage of how severe and funny and disruptive force McDormand can be as an atypical movie star - and Oscar worships grieving moms
22% Steamrolling pre-cursor wins
11% Best Picture heat
5% Showy AF dialogue
31% Performance - She chewed it up
29% Baity Role: deglam + biopic + poverty porn!
20% Precursor agreement + relentless campaign + Tonya at awards shows
17% Hotness. Hollywood loves an "It" girl
5% Janney = awards- magnetism
3% Her Wolf of Wall Street scenes (still)
30% Performance. Funny, authentic, moving
24% Precursors / campaign ~ 'Greta, Laurie, Saoirse' as package deal
12% Role
10% Best Picture heat / early rush of critics prizes
9% Her amazing co-stars 
7% Saoirse's prestige. Best of her generation
2% 'I voted for you to win for Brooklyn / Atonement'
60% She's Meryl Streep
15% Performance. How about that phone call scene ?!? Wow.
12% Role: biopraphical + feminist role model
10% Lockstep precursor nominee agreement
2% First prize of season early boost (NBR)
1% Gold caftan come through!
 

TRIVIA FUN

Margot Robbie is our only newbie this year. She's the 7th Australian actress nominated for the leading trophy (though 3 of the previous women -- Blanchett, Watts, Kidman -- have multiple nods in this category). I Tonya also marks the first time a woman has ever been Best Actress nominated for playing a real life athlete. Isn't that crazy?

Saoirse is the 20th youngest ever nominee in this category.

Meryl Streep scores her 21st nomination but her first with a Best Picture nomination alongside it since 1985's Out of Africa. That's a long stretch! Her last film which was Best Picture nominated (though Meryl wasn't) was The Hours

 

WHO WAS LEFT OUT?

Jessica Chastain (Globe nom for Molly's Game) and Annette Bening (BAFTA nom for Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool) were probably closest to the list.

OTher women who had minor buzz this year were Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul, SAG nominee), Diane Kruger (In the Fade, Cannes win), Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman). And there was a minor bit of "breakthrough / someone to watch" fuss over Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)

 
WHO WILL WIN?
Frances McDormand has the heat right now fresh off numerous precursor wins but she does already have an Oscar. Is there room then for Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie, or Sally Hawkins to challenge her?