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Charts are for entertainment and speculation purposes only. Read and discuss 

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO... Jared Leto as "Rayon" in Dallas Buyers Club

Nathaniel's Ballot 
Readers Rank (based on your polling votes):
JARED LETO takes the gold with 38% of the votes with MICHAEL FASSBENDER not too far behind for the silver (35%). BARKHAD ABDI takes the bronze with a solid 11%. BRADLEY COOPER (8%) and JONAH HILL (5%) split the stray votes 

AND THE NOMINEES ARE... discuss on the blog

Barkhad Abdi
28 yrs old | film debut
FIRST NOMINATION!
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS

wins: BAFTA + some critics groups
noms: Globes, BFCA, SAG,

Bradley Cooper
39 yrs old | 25 films
2nd nomination

AMERICAN HUSTLE

wins:--
noms:
Globes, BFCA,

Michael Fassbender
36 yrs old | 17 films
FIRST NOMINATION!
12 YEARS A SLAVE

wins: critics groups
noms: Globes, BFCA, SAGSpirit

Jared Leto
42 yrs old | 22 films
1st Nom | Win!
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

INTERVIEW

wins: Globes, BFCA, SAGLos AngelesNew York + a million critics group
noms: Spirit

Jonah Hill
30 yrs old | 26 films
2nd nomination
WOLF OF WALL STREET

wins: --
noms: --

A memorable foil to Hanks's stardom as the Somali pirate who hijacks the ship. Oscar loves authentic unknowns (Dr Haing S Ngor anyone?)

He's very funny as the desperate agent in over his head and Oscar obviously has a taste for acting in David O. Russell pictures.

More on Hustle

Oscar loves evil characters in this category and it was past time to recognize Fassy's gifts. Big meaty role with religious fantacism, sexual menace, and fury

More on Fassbender

Hard to ignore this level of visible commitment and raves. Plus Oscar likes a transgendered girl. But what was with that tone deaf speech at the Globes? 

Interview

Repulsive character but memorable & funny and people do love both in Scorsese pictures (Joe Pesci anyone?)

More on Hill

How'd They Get Nominated?
23% Big hit movie.
20% Role = Huge Co-lead.Oscar loves antagonists like crazy in this category
19% "I'm the captain now" A+ adlib
15% ...part of his authentic Performance. He totally serves the movie
13% Tom Hanks
10% Backstory Bullseye (drives a limo, now he's taking them!)
28% Timing. Hustle = right size hit, right time, BP hopeful
24% Career momentum (aka Silver Linings)
23% funny Performance
12% Distinct lack of vanity: The curlers, the flop sweat laughter
7% The Role (big screentime)
3% Prize Pack: Bale, Adams & Lawrence
2% Louis CK
1% Plunging necklines
25% BP Frontrunner = Traction
25% chilling Performance (watch the way he uses other actors as props)
25% Role. Oscar loves evil characters here.
11% Overdue. See the complete works of Steve McQueen: Shame + Hunger
9% Lack of campaign a smart move for a recently ubiquitous new star
5% Sarah Paulson
40% Role. Oscar has always loved gender-bending characters (especially the tragic ones)
26% Performance - love how he drawls "lone star"
14% Precursor Brainwashing made his competitors afterthoughts.
9% Weight Loss Bait
6% Novelty. Doesn't work much. No one sick of him.
4% BP nod
1% McConaughey
50% Timing x Controversy. People couldn't stop talking about it during balloting
21% Performance. Supporting is where comic "id" work gets its due
20% Role. Oscar loves Irredeemable foul-mouthed Scorsese men
6% The Hair. The Teeth. The Prosthetic Cock
2% Scorsese + DiCaprio
1% Moneyball broke the Oscar ice
Which Clip Did Oscar Show?
 "I'm the captain now" - of course Basically screaming into a telephone over and over again. (odd choice of clip)   "You will strike her" - the whipping has begun  "I wanna be pretty, a beautiful angel" - in the mirror, not much time left An unusual job offer.  Sees the pay stub. Quits his job.
Who Got Snubbed?

Sorry bout it... it wasn't a strong year for supporting men. The dread sixth-place spot was probably held by Daniel Brühl who did very well at the supporting precursors for his leading role in Rush.

At various times in the season people were holding out hope for James Gandolfini (posthumously) for Enough Said, Tom Hanks for Saving Mr Banks, and Will Forte (still more category fraud) for Nebraska... and it's a pity that Oscar is terrified of really outre work because James Franco was quite deserving for Spring Breakers. Sadly critics groups didn't have the balls to go there in this era of criticism where Oscar predictions take precedence over actual critical opinion.