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84th Oscars. Predictions for Films of 2011
OFFICIAL NOMINATIONS

Did Win: MERYL STREEP finally won her third. 

previously...
Will Win/Should Win: It's a squeaker but we're guessing Viola Davis pulls this one out.
But It Might Be: Meryl Streep and god it's been a long time waiting for that third Oscar! One of these years...

Reader's Rank (Polls Closed): 1. STREEP (36%)... we did an additional mess of ranking for Streep here. So fun! 2. DAVIS (32%) 3. MARA (13%) 4. WILLIAMS (11%) 5. CLOSE (6%)

Nathaniel's Rank: 1. VIOLA 2. MERYL 3. (tie) MICHELLE & MARA 5. CLOSE

THE NOMINEES ARE...
GLENN CLOSE 64 yrs old 6 nominations "Albert Nobbs" a waiter Albert Nobbs prizes: not yet	VIOLA DAVIS 46 yrs old 2 nominations "Aibeleen Clark" a maid The Help prizes: BFCA, SAG, and critics prizes	ROONEY MARA 26 years old 1st nomination! "Lisbeth Salander" a troubled hacker The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo prizes: NBR (breakthrough) and one critics prize	MERYL STREEP 62 yrs old 17 noms | 2 wins "Margaret Thatcher" the politician The Iron Lady prizes:  NYFCC, Oscar  Golden Globe , BAFTA, and critics prizes	MICHELLE WILLIAMS 31 yrs old 3 nominations "Marilyn Monroe" the movie star My Week With Marilyn prizes: Golden Globe, the majority of critics prizes
How'd She Get Nominated?
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Who Got Snubbed?
Rooney Mara's surging with a slow burn hit and a beloved character (Dragon Tattoo didn't open superbly but grew legs) cost Tilda Swinton. Tilda had won the NBR and the OFCS and a few other critics prizes as well as all of the major precursor nominations. Still, We Need To Talk About Kevin was always going to be a hard sell with Oscar. She came as far as she did partially on the momentum of three years of great work post-Oscar win. Kirsten Dunst, another worthy contender, never won post Cannes traction. Nathaniel's Personal Ballot.
Who is Likely to Win?
It's shaping up to be a battle between Meryl Streep (Globe & BAFTA winner and long overdue for a third Oscar) and Viola Davis (just hitting her stride which is a wonderful time to reward people and she's won SAG and BFCA). Michelle and Glenn pull "due" votes away from Meryl rather than Viola so we're guessing Viola.  But not-so-secretly we're hoping for a tie.

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