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« FYC: Best Adapted Screenplay, Love & Friendship | Main | Are you watching "One Day at a Time"? »
Thursday
Jan122017

DGA Nominations: Lion, La La, Manchester, Moonlight, and Arrival

The Directors Guild of America announcement was once the single most crucial nomination in understanding the Oscars to come. It famously meant "these films will be nominated for Best Picture"... more than it even meant "these films will be nominated for Best Director" statistically speaking. In ye olden times that would mean that your five strongest best picture contenders, given today's DGA nominations were La La Land, Moonlight, Lion, Manchester by the Sea and Arrival.

Chazelle, Jenkins, Davis, Lonergan, Villeneuve

But that was in the days of 5 nominations. Times are different now and have been since 2009...

MOVIES

THEATRICAL FEATURE

DAMIEN CHAZELLE La La Land
GARTH DAVIS Lion
BARRY JENKINS Moonlight
KENNETH LONERGAN Manchester by the Sea
DENIS VILLENEUVE Arrival
 

The DGA nominations usually relate to Oscar's Best Director category on a 4/5 level only. They always replace someone, like so...

2015: Ridley Scott lost his spot for the Martian (DGA) to Lenny Abrahamson on Room (Oscar)
2014: Clint Eastwood lost his spot for American Sniper (DGA) to Bennet Miller for Foxcatcher (Oscar)
2013: Paul Greengrass lost his spot for Captain Phillips (DGA) to Alexander Payne for Nebraska (Oscar)
2012: A CRAZY YEAR. Only two of the DGA's choices made it to the Oscar shortlist (Spielberg & Lee) while the other mainstream nominees were replaced by scrappier indie and foreign film choices
2011: David Fincher lost his spot for Dragon Tattoo (DGA) to Terrence Malick for Tree of Life (Oscar)
2010: Christopher Nolan lost his spot for Inception (DGA) to the Coen Bros for True Grit (Oscar) 

So expect one of their main men to get the boot on January 24th when Oscar nods are announced. Recent history suggests that when they replace someone they always go with someone on a lower budget less bombastic title. Which theoretically means that Villeneuve is the most vulnerable... but Arrival for all its big genre trappings is gorgeously unforced, even understated. So maybe the DGA will have a rare 5/5 match with Oscar this year? 

FIRST TIME DIRECTOR


GARTH DAVIS Lion
KELLY FREMON CRAIG Edge of Seventeen
TIM MILLER Deadpool
NATE PARKER Birth of a Nation
DAN TRACHTENBERG 10 Cloverfield Lane

Certifiably insane to leave Robert Eggers (The Witch) off of such a list but I understand that the industry has very very short memories and it opened nearly a year ago. And the critical community, who are just as terrible as the industry for "shiny new toy" syndrome, didn't rally to remind voters.

DOCUMENTARY

OTTO BELL The Eagle Huntress
EZRA EDELMAN O.J.: Made in America
JOSH KRIEGMAN & ELYSE STEINBERG Weiner
RAOUL PECK I Am Not Your Negro
ROGER ROSS WILLIAMS Life, Animated

TELEVISION

Dramatic Series

THE DUFFER BROTHERS
Stranger Things, “Chapter One: The Vanishing of Will Byers” (Netflix)
Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Timothy Lonsdale
First Assistant Director: Richard Denault
Second Assistant Directors: Maria Battle Campbell, Kristina M. Peterson
Second Second Assistant Director: Simeon Jones
Additional Second Assistant Director: Franchesca Winters

RYAN MURPHY
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “From the Ashes of Tragedy” (FX)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Chip Vucelich
First Assistant Director: Leo Bauer
Second Assistant Director: Janell Sammelman
Second Second Assistant Director: Matt Pexa
Additional Second Assistant Director: Alicia Lewis

JONATHAN NOLAN
Westworld, “The Original” (HBO)

Directorial Team
Unit Production Manager: Robert Del Valle
First Assistant Director: Kim H. Winther
Second Assistant Director: Jeff Okabayashi
Second Second Assistant Directors: Michelene Mundo, Katie Pruitt

MIGUEL SAPOCHNIK
Game of Thrones, “The Battle of the Bastards” (HBO)

JOHN SINGLETON
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story, “The Race Card” (FX)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Chip Vucelich
First Assistant Director: Dan Shaw
Second Assistant Director: Matt Pexa
Second Second Assistant Directors: Kim Richards, Kyle Hollingsworth

Comedy Series

ALEC BERG
Silicon Valley, “Daily Active Users” (HBO)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Tyler Romary
First Assistant Director: Nick Mastandrea
Second Assistant Director: Sally Brunski
Second Second Assistant Director: Kim Richards
Additional Second Assistant Director: Kathleen D. Brennan

DONALD GLOVER
Atlanta, “B.A.N.” (FX)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Alex Orr
First Assistant Director: Veronica A. Hodge Hampton
Second Assistant Director: Jason Graham
Second Second Assistant Director: Danielle King
Additional Second Assistant Director: Mike Brune

MIKE JUDGE
Silicon Valley, “Founder Friendly” (HBO)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Tyler Romary
First Assistant Director: James “Billy” Burton
Second Assistant Director: Thomas Boucher
Second Second Assistant Director: Kim Richards

BECKY MARTIN
Veep, “Inauguration” (HBO)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: David Hyman
First Assistant Director: Dale Stern
Second Assistant Director: Michelle Gritzer
Second Second Assistant Director: Chris Riddle
Additional Second Assistant Director: Gary Cotti

DALE STERN
Veep, “Mother” (HBO)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: David Hyman
First Assistant Director: Michelle Gritzer
Second Assistant Director: Jeff Rosenberg
Second Second Assistant Director: Chris Riddle
Additional Second Assistant Director: Cecilia Sweatman

Movies For TV And Miniseries

RAYMOND DE FELITTA
Madoff (ABC)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Moshe Bardach
First Assistant Director: Scott Lazar
Second Assistant Director: David Fischer
Second Second Assistant Director: Ramona Murphy-Adair
Location Manager: Eddy Collyns

THOMAS KAIL (Directed By)
ALEX RUDZINSKI (Live Television Direction By)
Grease Live! (Fox)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Carrie Havel, Adam Mishler, Brad Duns
Head Stage Manager: Garry Hood
Stage Managers: Jennifer Marquet, John Esposito, Jonathan Marks, Rob Sellers Jr., Dani Farrelly, Paul Forrest, Roy Friedland, Chris Hines, Roxanne Lozano, Drina Mohacsi, Tshaka Stewart, Mike Strauss, Cheryl Teetzel-Moore, Ari Woog

KENNY LEON (Directed By)
ALEX RUDZINSKI (Live Television Direction By)
Hairspray Live! (NBC)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Carrie Havel, Brad Duns, Amy Wilcox Barker
Stage Managers: Garry Hood, John Esposito, Dani Farrelly, Roy Friedland, Paul Forrest, John Hill, Chris Hines, Roxanne Lozano, Jonathan Marks, Jennifer Marquet, Donna Parker, Cody Renard Richard, Rob Sellers Jr., Murray Siegel, Jackie Stathis, Mike Strauss

JAY ROACH
All the Way (HBO)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Scott Ferguson
First Assistant Director: Josh King
Second Assistant Director: Aaron Fitzgerald
Second Second Assistant Directors: Jason C. Brown, Matthew Milan

STEVEN ZAILLIAN
The Night Of, “The Beach” (HBO)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Greer Yeaton
First Assistant Director: Michael Steele
Second Assistant Director: Ginger Gonzalez
Second Second Assistant Director: Rachel Iovine
Location Manager: Shane Haden

Variety/News/Talk/Sports – Regularly Scheduled Programming

PAUL G. CASEY
Real Time With Bill Maher, “Show #1437” (HBO)

Directorial Team:
Associate Director: Stacy Talbot
Stage Managers: Patrick Whitney, Brian Anderson

NORA GERARD
CBS Sunday Morning, “Charles Osgood Farewell Broadcast” (CBS)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Bernard Rozenberg, Jessica Frank, Patricia Finnegan, Jyll Phillips Friedman
Stage Managers: Mark Dicso, Lindsley Newbury

JIM HOSKINSON
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, “Episode #0179” (CBS)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Yvonne DeMare, Karen Yaeger
Stage Manager: Mark McKenna

DON ROY KING
Saturday Night Live, “Host: Dave Chappelle” (NBC)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Michael Mancini, Michael Poole, Bob Caminiti
Stage Managers: Gena Rositano, Chris Kelly

PAUL PENNOLINO
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee, “Episode #1030” (TBS)

Directorial Team:
Associate Director: Jeremy Hardwick
Stage Manager: Laura Mack

Variety/News/Talk/Sports – Specials

JERRY FOLEY
Tony Bennett Celebrates 90 – The Best is Yet to Come (NBC)

Directorial Team:
Associate Director: Randi Grossack
Key Stage Manager: Jeffry Gitter
Stage Managers: Bennymar Almonte, Lauren Class Schneider, Joey Despenzero, Jeff Markowitz, Karen Tasch Weiss

TIM MANCINELLI
The Late Late Show with James Corden, “The Late Late Show Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special” (CBS)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Matt Powers, Bac Delorme, Brian Sutherin
Stage Managers: Michael J. Schiff, Teri Pensky Hlubik

LINDA MENDOZA
Smithsonian Salutes Ray Charles: In Performance at the White House (PBS)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Dora Mendoza, Kelly Hernacki
Stage Managers: Lynn Finkel, Elise Reaves, Phyllis Digilio-Kent

PAUL MYERS
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee, “A Very Special Full Frontal Special” (TBS)

GLENN WEISS
The 70th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Ken Diego, Robin Abrams, Ricky Kirshner
Stage Managers: Garry Hood, Peter Epstein, Joey Despenzero, Phyllis Digilio-Kent, Andrew Feigin, Doug Fogel, Jeffry Gitter, Arthur Lewis, Jeffrey M. Markowitz, Cyndi Owgang, Jeff Pearl, Alfonso Pena, Annette Powlis, Elise Reaves, Lauren Class Schneider, Jim Semmelman

Reality Programs

KEN FUCHS
Shark Tank, “801” (ABC)

Directorial Team:
Associate Director: Amy Wilcox Barker
Head Stage Manager: Eric Rhoden
Stage Managers: Doug Neal, Michael Strauss

JOHN GONZALEZ
Live PD, “Episode 5” (A&E)

Directorial Team:
Stage Manager: Jeff Buda

BRIAN SMITH
STRONG, “Welcome to STRONG” (NBC)

Directorial Team:
Associate Directors: Anna Moulaison Moore, David Charles
Stage Manager: Drew Lewandowski

J. RUPERT THOMPSON
American Grit, “The Finale Over the Falls” (Fox)

Directorial Team:
Associate Director: David Charles
Stage Managers: Daniel Curran, Kevin Fletcher

BERTRAM VAN MUNSTER
The Amazing Race, “We’re Only Doing Freaky Stuff Today” (CBS)

Directorial Team:
Associate Director: Dan Coffie

Children’s Programs

LIZ ALLEN
The Kicks, “Pilot” (Amazon)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Maria Melograne
First Assistant Director: Michael Williams
Second Assistant Director: Walter Parry

ALETHEA JONES
Gortimer Gibbon’s Life on Normal Street, “Gortimer and the Jacks of All Trades” (Amazon)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Richard G. King
First Assistant Director: Lance W. Lanfear
Second Assistant Director: David Berke
Second Second Assistant Director: Christopher H. Cook

MICHAEL LEMBECK
A Nutcracker Christmas (Hallmark Channel)

TINA MABRY
An American Girl Story – Melody 1963: Love Has to Win (Amazon)

Directorial Team:
Unit Production Manager: Richard G. King
First Assistant Director: Otto Penzato
Second Assistant Director: David Berke
Second Second Assistant Director: Christopher H. Cook
Additional Second Assistant Directors: Candice Lee, Matthew W. Ross

JOHN SCHULTZ
Adventures in Babysitting (Disney Channel)

Commercials

LANCE ACORD (Park Pictures)
Frankie’s Holiday, Apple – MAL
First Assistant Director: Thomas Smith

Movie Night, Kohl’s – Anomaly
First Assistant Director: Thomas Smith
Second Assistant Director: Rob Kay

DANTE ARIOLA (MJZ)
Hold Your Breath, SunTrust – Strawberry Frog
Unit Production Manager: Natalie Hill
First Assistant Director: George Nessis
Second Assistant Director: Isaac Mejia

Riding is the New Driving, Lyft – Made Movement
Unit Production Manager: Natalie Hill
First Assistant Director: John Lowe
Second Assistant Director: Julian Metter
Second Second Assistant Director: Dave Liehn

Tell Me When To Go, Beats
Unit Production Managers: Natalie Hill, Susan Levin
First Assistant Director: Chris Medak
Second Assistant Director: Adam Stern
Second Second Assistant Director: Jani Vournas

FREDRIK BOND (MJZ)
Dive, Apple – TBWA/Media Arts Lab
First Assistant Director: Howell Caldwell

Everyday Hero, Philips – Ogilvy & Mather

World of Play, LG – Energy BBDO
Unit Production Manager: Line Postmyr
First Assistant Director: Anthony Dimino
Second Assistant Director: Spencer Taylor
Second Second Assistant Director: R. Ben Parker
Additional First Assistant Director: Chris Blanch
Additional Second Assistant Director: Steve Bagnara

DEREK CIANFRANCE (RadicalMedia)

Chase, Nike Golf – Wieden + Kennedy Portland
First Assistant Director: Rick Lange
Second Assistant Director: Ethan Ross

Doubts, Powerade – Wieden + Kennedy Portland
First Assistant Director: Mariela Comitini
Second Assistant Director: Brad Robinson

Expectations, Powerade – Wieden + Kennedy Portland
First Assistant Director: Mariela Comitini
Second Assistant Director: Brad Robinson

Manifesto, Squarespace – Anomaly
First Assistant Director: David Backus
Second Assistant Director: Josh Voegelin

AG ROJAS (Park Pictures)

The Best Planet, S7 Airlines – Wieden + Kennedy Amsterdam

The Snail, Samsung – Leo Burnett USA
First Assistant Director: Robert Dean Phillips

 

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Reader Comments (43)

You/re forgot to mention the OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF A FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR FOR 2016:

- GARTH DAVIS
Lion

- KELLY FREMON CRAIG
The Edge of Seventeen

- TIM MILLER
Deadpool

- NATE PARKER
The Birth of a Nation

- DAN TRACHTENBERG
10 Cloverfield Lane

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterFabio

I've got a feeling Gibson will replace Davis at the Oscars.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPaul

"2011: David Fincher lost his spot for Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (DGA) to Michael Haneke for Amour (Oscar)"

Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

Wow, is this Davis' first citation all season?

If he does get dropped, who replaces him? I'm assuming Mackenzie?

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterTravis

Davis out, Scorsese in.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJohn

I can see Villeneuve and Davis being replaced by Scorsese, Gibson or David Mackenzie. It would be a shame since I think both of them did a great job. "Lion's" first half is a harrowing but inspiring story, but as a newbie Davis may be the most vulnerable.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRaul

Hoooray! Sooo happy for denis, well desreved nomination. Go denis!

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterArghavan

I'm betting on Villeneuve being replaced by David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water).

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJordan

I think Oscar drops Davis for Scorsese, although you never know with the Weinstein brothers.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterW.J.

YAS!!! No Gibson. Ir he couldn't make it here, it's done for the most elitist Oscars at the directors branch.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterleon

The Academy often likes a foreign-language director. I'm predicting Paul Verhoeven, but maybe Maren Ade also has a chance. If there were any justice, Pablo Larrain would be getting in. But there isn't and he won't.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterken s

No way Gibson is in with the more prestigious Oscar Directors' branch if he can't make it in with DGA.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

Suzanne - exactly.

given Oscar's more "elitist" (though that word has lost meaning lately) leanings i'd say the only men with a chance to rock this apple cart now are VERHOEVEN, MACKENZIE, FORD, NICHOLS or LARRAIN... but i cant' decide who is most vulnerable among the DGA nominees. I guess Villeneuve or Davis but i love both of them so... *cries*

January 12, 2017 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

This one goes out to all the female directors, who very deservingly could have occupied all five spots.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

Davis out. Larrain (Foxcatcher of the year) or Scorsese in.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJon

I think Davis gets out for Pablo Larrain. There is a foreign/arthouse contingent that helped get names like Pedro Almodovar for Talk To Her, Krzysztof Kieslowski for Red, Lenny Abrahamson for Room, Michael Haneke for Amour, etc., in the Final Five. Even if Jackie is an English language film, Larrain also had Neruda which was in the running for Foreign Language Film and The Club earlier this year. I think he can be the surprise of the day.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterMatt St.Clair

This lineup is terrific. I would swap out Davis for Scorsese, but still, good job, DGA. Lion is very underrated.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

PS lots a youngins! Nice.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

If Oscar nominates Scorsese over Villeneuve I will kill somebody.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterYavor

Congratulations to all the nominees.

I too feel that one of these will not make the Oscar cut.

I keep wondering if Jim Jarmusch could surprise. It could be a classic lone director nod like we used to get in the olden days!

But I think it's more likely to be one of the alternatives Nathaniel mentions or perhaps Larraín, if Jackie has been lurking more than people have realised.

I do love a surprise on nomination day and the Directors' branch has been delivering on that front in recent years!

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterEdward L.

I have a sneaking suspicion Tom Ford gets in

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterDAVID

If you're trying to predict who's out in a non-exact match-up, it could be Jenkins or Lonergan. Remember that last year at this time, the majority of Oscar Watchers were predicting Ridley Scott FOR THE WIN (at least at Gold Derby) and he wasn't even nominated.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterken s

Yeah, I agree Ken-I would only count Chazelle as the safe nominee here. I still think that Scorsese could surprise, but that's based more on gut than actual evidence. Still worth noting the only time he made it with AMPAS but not DGA was Last Temptation of Christ.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJohn T

Noteworthy to me are the inclusion of Nate Parker and the exclusion of Ava DuVernay.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

I was thinking Davis would be this year's Abrahamson or Tyldum. Under the radar, not flashy, but hits voters with an emotional gut punch and gets in over bigger names.

Nat, I know you love THE WITCH, but 10 CLOVERFIELD LANE and DEADPOOL were both out in February, yes? I'd say it's more to do with genre bias... but then... CLOVERFIELD and DEADPOOL. Hmmm. I think the more egregious miss is the director of KRISHA.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

This is about the best lineup one could hope for. Thank god no Ford or Gibson.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterBD

Nat: I think this is probably a rare 5/5. Look at who, typically, gets dropped in the transfer from DGA to Oscars. Ridley Scott for Abrahamson. Clint Eastwood for Bennett Miller. Paul Greengrass for Alexander Payne. David Fincher for Terence Malick. Christopher Nolan for the Coen Bros. One or two of those might be coincidence, but all FIVE? That's a PATTERN. They're all long-running filmmakers with commercial mega-successes behind them dropped for smaller, less commercial talent. We don't have one of those this year for an easy "drop call." Lonergan and Villeneuve are in the most danger by that pattern, but even that's a STRETCH.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterVolvagia

I'm so happy about Denis Villeneuve, it shows that Arrival is getting some credit for being one of the best films I saw this year. A DGA nomination is some serious respect.
I think he will stay in the Oscar line up. That's my bet and I'm sticking to it.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterLadyEdith

I would totally date three of them.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Chazelle, Jenkins and Lonergan will be nominated (unless we'll have once again 'ARGO's year'). Davis - well, he's this year's Morten Tyldum so he will be also (and he's got TWO nominations for DGA so his work must be REALLY liked)/
Villeneuve is probably the weakest of this group but who can replace him? I guess that Scorsese and Mackenzie are the strongest possibilities. Gibson and Ford are behind them. And that's all.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterSomeone

I have a feeling that only two or three of these directors get Oscar nominations. I think Chazelle and Jenkins are in, Lonergan is possible, and Davis and Villeneuve are on shaky ground. I'm excited to see what happens.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterCash

This makes me rethink Lion and its potential. I'm glad they omitted Gibson and Ford. I still am reeling about how easily the blogosphere was ready to welcome the misogynist, homophobic, racist anti-Semite Gibson, especially with the ham fisted direction and ludicrous acting it features. Garfield must be an actor who shines with brilliant direction only. He was great in The Social Network and mostly everything else I've seen him in.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPatryk

Great list! Imo, Davis, n not Villeneuve is the most vulnerable here. He is the surprise nominee here where most punters din put him in the top 5

I kno its v unlikely this list will transfer 5/5 to Oscars, so I'll say Davis repace by Mackenzie or Ford or Gibson.

I'm sorry but i dun tink Scorsese will get in judgin fr the Silence treatment his film is receiving. The Academy may luv him but rem they Dun luv him enough when he was nom in 2002 n 2004, when many predicted he wld finally win.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

Nathaniel - Mark Harris, Kris Tapley and Sasha Stone mentioned an interesting point (on Twitter) Mark Harris: "Worth noting that 17-18% of Directors branch is new this year, and mostly foreign. Biggest branch overhaul in AMPAS."
Sasha agrees noting that in a smallish branch (400-500) such an overhaul could have a major affect. The main point being that nominations won't necessarily be the same automatic ones we've come to expect. New blood and generational differences may really have an effect.
Makes it all more interesting, doesn't it?

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterLadyEdith

Patryk, Garfield is extraordinary in Silence and deserves an Oscar nomination.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

The Academy Director's Branch has been surprisingly eclectic and unpredictable the past few years, so I don't expect this to match up completely with Oscar. However, I really think this is the final nail in the coffin for Mel Gibson (hopefully!). If he can't make it here for his populist film, then I don't see that happening at all at Oscar.

Honestly, outside of Chazelle, I could see any of the directors being passed over. Last years omission of Ridley Scott was by far (for me), the most shocking snub of last year as I thought he was a serious contender for the win. And we don't need reminding of the Affleck/Bigelow snubs of 4 years ago. Sadly, I think the most vulnerable out of these is Villeneuve. I'm getting a Christopher Nolan-vibe from him. Perhaps there is Imitation Game-level support for Lion in the industry and Davis is safer than we think.

I think the replacement will be an auteur/foreign critical darling like Pablo Larrain or Paul Verhoeven. Or more likely- Scorsese. And depending on how much they like Nocturnal Animals, Tom Ford can't be counted out. But I think it will be one of those 4.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

Honestly if I had to pick someone as vulnerable, it would be Lonergan. His film is the least "showy" in terms of direction and there may be enough support behind Scorsese (or even Gibson, I suppose) to boot him out. Davis would also fill this role, but Lion has been surging in the last few weeks.

But really, I think we'll get a 5/5 match with Oscar.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterDarbicus

Volvagia -- you're basically repeating exactly what i said in the text of the article so I agree with you :)

January 12, 2017 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Interesting list.

I don't see Davis getting in at The Oscars, but he could surprise.

If they really like Nocturnal Animals, I could see Tom Ford getting in. Other than that, Pablo Larrain or Paul Verhoeven. The Academy tends to make interesting/respectable choices in Best Director and Animated Film so we'll see.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip H.

Ditto. Davis out, Scorsese in. Oscars have a raging hard on for the guy.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterCraver

Craver, ITA. But Scorsese deserves this one. Silence is a haunting testament to his filmmaking mastery. It's a near requiem for a genius--he's still got more to give us.

January 12, 2017 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

"Ridley Scott for Abrahamson. Clint Eastwood for Bennett Miller. Paul Greengrass for Alexander Payne. David Fincher for Terence Malick. Christopher Nolan for the Coen Bros."
It's hard to say that Coen Bros are filmmakers without commercial success behind them.
And it's difficult to say that Malick or Coen Bros. are new talents nominated.
IMO they simply ignore genre filmmaking more than DGA. Scott and Nolan directed sci-fi pictures, Eastwood war drama, Fincher crime story.
This is why I suppose that Villeneuve is the most vulnerable of the nominated five and he might be (and probably will be) this year's Nolan and Scott.

January 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterSomeone

... and Deadpool hits once more. Time to seriously think if we are about to see it score more noms at the Oscars than the likely Make Up one. I wouldn't be in shock if it scored Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing after its guilds noms, and the DGA (1st time)-PGA-GG earns it a position in which the unthinkable may finally happen.

And whatever we personally think of the film itself, a Hard-R genre comedy being nominated for Best Picture, is something refreshing. It won't but it would be cool.

January 13, 2017 | Unregistered CommenterJesus Alonso
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