2011 Oscar Contenders. Did I Miss Any?

UPDATED W/ SUGGESTIONS - FIRST WAVE CHART PREDIX (04/01 THROUGH 04/08)

As you can see over at the Oscar chart pages, I'm setting up the charts for Oscar's 84th year. This takes me awhile, alas. But here are some films I'm pondering for the "April Fool" predictions. i.e. not truly a prank but still foolish to try and guess this far in advance. I'll be filling in the pages all week. I never get this done in one day's time. Bear with me. Am I missing any 2011 films of note?

BIGGIES
These are the films that only have to be "good". Some will be much better than that and others will be worse but they'll get plenty of attention no matter what.

• CARNAGE Roman Polanski adapts the terrific one set/four character darkly comedic stage play. Can Jodie Foster, Christoph Waltz, Kate Winslet and John C Reilly pull this off?
  
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 Will Oscar take this opportunity to reward the series as a whole or will they figure a couple of nods here and there were reward enough? 
• THE INVENTION OF HUGO CABRET Martin Scorsese tries his hand at adapting a children's book, a Caldecott winner too.
• J. EDGAR Clint Eastwood's Hoover biopic is supposedly a 2012 film. But Clint is fast and they've been filming for some time. I'd be very surprised if it wasn't December 2011.
• SUPER 8 JJ Abrams tries to become the new Spielberg with this child's eye sci-fi
• THE TREE OF LIFE Terrence Malick's mysterious 50s-era (sort of) drama. Even if people don't love it, they'll pretend that they do.
• WAR HORSE It's been six years since Steven Spielberg was enmeshed in an Oscar race (Munich). Will this WWI drama return him to AMPAS's good graces (not that he ever left. Can we please let someone else present Best Picture goddamnit.)

Many more after the jump. What am I missing? Save me from my own forgetfulness!

TRADITIONAL OSCAR ELEMENTS OR PREVIOUS NOMINEES. BUT WHO KNOWS...?

• THE CONSPIRATOR Lincoln Assassination courtroom drama with an all star cast. Why the long delay before release?
• CORIOLANUS Ralph Fiennes directs (and acts) in one of Shakespeare's lesser filmed works. Vanessa Redgrave and Gerard Butler co-star.
  
• DANGEROUS METHOD David Cronenberg isn't really Oscar's cuppa (too bad because his movies are so fine) but this one is a period biopic and the acting trio is possibly to die for (Fassbender, Mortensen, Knightley)
• THE DESCENDANTS Alexander Payne's first film since Sideways if you can believe it. With George Clooney as the patriarch of a family moving to Hawaii.
• THE IDES OF MARCH George Clooney does political drama. Will it be a Good Night, or Good Luck major player or a minor Syriana type?
• IRON LADY Meryl Streep does Margaret Thatcher but she can't be nominated every year, can she? Maybe you shouldn't answer that. She's acted in 42 features (excluding voice work) and has been nominated for 16 of them.
• JANE EYRE People love it but can it find a late year wind when it will have been on DVD for so long by then?
• MONEYBALL Brad Pitt in a sports management drama written by Aaron Sorkin.
• MY WEEK WITH MARILYN Michelle Williams as the bombshell in a picture that takes place during the making of The Prince and the Showgirl. Kenneth Branagh is playing Sir Laurence Olivier.
• ON THE ROAD Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diairies) takes on the Jack Kerouac book with a young glittery cast
• WHISTLEBLOWER Rachel Weisz in political quagmire. Why the long delay before release?
• YOUNG ADULT Juno's writing and directing team reunite for this one starring Charlize Theron as a divorcee out to reconnect with an ex-boyfriend (Patrick Wilson) who is married.

TINY POWERHOUSES?
Smaller films (like An Education, Winter's Bone, Precious and such in years past) need to rally very passionate fanbases to wrestle attention away from big money efforts. A few such films each year rise to that challenge. But which?

• ALBERT NOBBS Glenn Close reprises her stage role and even helped adapt the screenplay. From the director of Mother and Child.
• BEGINNERS The trailer was sweet, like Woody Allen without the misanthropy. Good cast especially. Could we see Christopher Plummer nominated again for this gay dad?
• THE EYE OF THE STORM Charlotte Rampling gets a plum lead role. We don't see much of that. Will Fred Schepisi's adaptation of the award-winning novel be good or a blip?
• LIKE CRAZY the much-discussed Sundance romance.
• MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE the much-discussed Sundance cult drama hit. With Elizabeth Olsen, Sarah Paulson and last year's nominee John Hawkes.
• RAMPART reteams four players from the high quality indie The Messenger (Foster, Oscar-nominated Harrelson, Oscar-nominated writer/director Oren Moverman and Steve Buscemi) for something that'll probably be more mainstream: a police corruption drama. Female stars joining in this time: Sigourney Weaver, Robin Wright and Anne Heche.
• TAKE THIS WALTZ Sarah Polley (Away From Her) writes and directs again! This romance stars Michelle Williams.
• WIN WIN Thomas McCarthy (The Station Agent, The Visitor) once again trains his intimate eye on recognizably human characters. Will he ever break out with Oscar?

CURIOS
They don't seem like Oscar films on the surface of it but if they make enough critics, cinephiles, specialty audiences orgasmic, you never know.

• THE BEAVER Jodie Foster and Mel Gibson won good reviews at SXSW but will there be enough of a larger embrace to power a "forgive Mel" Oscar campaign?
• CONTAGION Steven Soderbergh has recently announced that he's quitting the movies altogether (after Liberace). Is this all star thriller really that bad? (just kidding. he's always been restless)
• THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO How does this math work. Benjamin Button + Social Network = Oscar favorite now? Or does the absurd loss at last year's Oscars, mean they're still cool on Fincher? They have to be very excited about a film if it's pulpy mainstream genre stuff.
• IMMORTALS Tarsem Singh (The Cell, The Fall) can deliver visually, but he's yet to attract crowds or critics in enough numbers for the industry to really notice.
• MARGARET Kenneth Lonergan's starry ensemble drama about a fatal accident is now a few years old and still unreleased. That makes it a point of curiousity... as does his awesome directorial debut (You Can Count On Me... now 11 years old. That's a long time to wait for feature #2)
• MELANCHOLIA Lars Von Trier's latest whatsit with Kirsten Dunst and Charlotte Gainsbourg and a planet about to hit Earth.
  
• MIDNIGHT IN PARIS Woody Allen's "Oscar bait" status has long since expired. Even with minor hits like Vicky Cristina Barcelona he doesn't get screenplay nods anymore. I think he might need another true masterpiece like a Hannah or a Bullets to show up again.
• THE RUM DIARY Johnny Depp tries to play a human begin again. Will AMPAS go nuts or will this be a "Blow" and why the long delay before release?
• THE SKIN THAT I INHABIT Pedro Almodovar gets macabre in this revenge tale reuniting him with his only significant male muse, Antonio Banderas.
• THIS MUST BE THE PLACE The Il Divo director has Sean Penn looking like Robert Smith while trying to track his dad's Nazi murderer. Sounds... odd.
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY Tomas Alfredson (Let the Right One In) directs this espionage thriller starring Colin Firth. Espionage thrillers aren't usually something that Oscar gets excited about but Firth is on a roll lately. We'll see.
• W.E. Madonna's royals romance movie starring Abbie Cornish and Andrea Riseborough. I have a hunch it's going to good. Though even if it is, there's no telling what the reception will be like given the weird and one might say completely irrational feelings that Madonna provokes in people. Not too mention a true story that does the same.
• WATER FOR ELEPHANTS It might be terrible. But if it's good, aren't nominations more than possible? At least visual nominations it being the circus and all.
• WE BOUGHT A ZOO Cameron Crowe (Almost Famous, Elizabethtown) returns with this animal husbandry family drama. Seems like the type of thing that could tip either way: massively celebrated / roundly ignored.
• WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN Lynne Ramsay (Morvern Callar) returns directing Tilda Swinton (yes!) in this drama about a family dealing with their homicidal son.

TECHS? RANDOMNESS? ANIMATION GHETTO? 2012?

• Superhero/Blockbuster Fun (?) Pack: THOR, CAPTAIN AMERICA, GREEN LANTERN, X-MEN: FIRST CLASS? Which of the four summer superhero movies can manage an Oscar nod or two? There's also stuff like RISE OF THE APES, SHERLOCK HOLMES 2, TRANSFORMERS 3, REAL STEEL, THE RAVEN, MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL, COWBOYS AND ALIENS and something has to fill up the tech categories that the Best Picture contenders don't happen to hog.
• Dire Animated Year? After last year's creamy crop, we've got a bunch of sequels/franchise stuff coming including CARS 2, KUNG FU PANDA 2, PUSS N BOOTS, HOODWINKED TOO, and WINNIE THE POOH. Then there are the busy looking originals like RIO, ARTHUR CHRISTMAS and came and went stuff like GNOMEO & JULIET and MARS NEEDS MOMS and terrible looking half-animated stuff like HOP and THE SMURFS. Will RANGO have any competition at all for the win? ADVENTURES OF TINTIN has big cast and great director (Spielberg) but this type of animation was disqualified as of last year. I personally disagree with the ruling but what can you do?
• God, who knows?  THE LADY, CRAZY STUPID LOVE, THE MUPPETS, PARIAH, RECKLESS, SHAME, THE HELP, TYRANNOSAUR, THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL, THE FUTURE, DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, BEAUTIFUL BOY, HAYWIRE, THE DETAILS,  ONE DAY, LARRY CROWNE, THE WOMAN IN THE FIFTH, HIGHER GROUND, DREAM HOUSE and WUTHERING HEIGHTS.
• We're going to assume they're 2012: David Frankel's GREAT HOPE SPRINGS (with Meryl Streep), Michael Haneke's LOVE, Stephen Daldry's EXTREMELY LOUD AND UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE (with Hanks and Bullock), Stephen Frears' LAY THE FAVORITE (with Rebecca Hall), Andrew Dominik's COGAN'S TRADE (with Brad Pitt) and Lasse Halström's THE DANISH GIRL (with Nicole Kidman and rotating other female lead. It's currently Rachel Weisz but we've been here before.)

Comments

[Alex BBats]

This got me super excited even though I'll probably see half of these films (well, maybe more) if I'm lucky/feverish enough.

[L]

Walter Salles on the Road is highly anticipated and very possible. Hoover and Iron Lady if they get done this year. The Tree of Life is also a big deal. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Ides of March, and We Need to Talk About Kevin round out my list of pics. Jane Eyre is a possibility if it stays on award voter's minds. Among the curios I'd pick Melancholia and The Beaver.

This is a great list

[Sam Brooks]

Really hope Girl with the Dragon Tattoo remake goes NOWHERE. The original was already a hit worldwide? No point for a remake.

[Mikhael]

All I want is a nod each for Gosling in Ides of March and Knightley in A Dangerous Method.

Although this might sound silly, how about SAG nom for ensemble cast of Crazy Stupid Love which includes Julianne holy Moore, Marisa damn Tomei, Emma friggin Stone, and again Ryan bloody Gosling.

[Aaron]

I'm really excited for Hugo Cabret, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Tree of Life, and The Whistleblower...I remember reading some rave reviews for this out of Toronto last year (particularly for Rachel Weisz)...I think she could definitely make a splash in awards season this year...she's been absent for too long.

I honestly don't have a huge desire to see Girl With the Dragon Tattoo...it's one of those films I know I will see even though my excitement level isn't high...love Fincher, but this is one of the most overrated franchises ever (in my opinion).

I'm curious to see how Melancholia and We Need to Talk About Kevin perform both critically and commercially...both Kirsten Dunst and Tilda Swinton will undoubtedly have plum roles that will win them critical acclaim, but how will Oscar think? I'm especially not getting my hopes up for Swinton--the fact that the Academy has ignored her two years running for spectacular performances makes me lose faith that they will ever acknowledge her work again.

[John]

I believe Yellow (a film about drugs directed by Cassavetes) could have some potential acting nominees like Lucy Punch for lead actress and Sienna Miler and Ben Foster for supporting.

[John T]

Though it probably won't, it doesn't seem fair to list Hoodwinked 2 when there's a sequel to an actual former winner (Happy Feet 2) in the mix.

I suspect that animated will look something like:

1. Winnie the Pooh
2. Tintin
3. Cars 2
4. Rango
5. Kung Fu Panda 2/Happy Feet 2 (whichever is better)

[John T]

I'd also like to point out that after a nearly six year absence (only Indy 4), the Score categories should be easier to predict this year-John Williams has two (Tintin & War Horse).

[Gabriel Oak]

The Conspirator won't be an award contender. It's not bad but not very exciting. James McAvoy, Robin Wright, Jonathan Groff and Tom Wilkinson (does he ever rest?) are all fine but the movie feels like it was made in the 1950s. McAvoy, though, deserves better roles.

I don't think Meek's Cutoff is going anywhere either.

One movie that may not get awards but which get some buzz is Submarine, a delightful Welsh film that I saw in Toronto.

[Nathaniel R]

I'm uncertain as to how Winnie the Pooh has such good buzz. I really doubt that Oscar is going to embrace a reboot of something that old. i can't see what the motivation would be to embrace a new version?

[rubi-kun]

Volvagia: They added a "mo-cap isn't animation" rule just last year mainly so Avatar wouldn't be in the category.

I'm hoping that The Dream Machines, the final film of the late Satoshi Kon, gets released this year and gets into the animation category. He's been ignored far too long; didn't even get into the Oscar memorial segment this year. Honestly might be even better than Miyazaki, and a big influence on directors like Arronofsky and Nolan. (BTW, if you're doing animation for Hit Me With Your Best Shot, Perfect Blue might be a good choice)

Harry Potter hasn't been nominated for Best Picture before but I do get the sense that in a field of ten that the first movie and possibly the superior third movie would make it. So there's a chance for the finale to be nominated. If not, then I expect the series to get at least one tech win, probably for art direction.

[Jones]

I'm making a prediction for the 2013 OSCARS: P.T. ANDERSON winning best director. It's about friggin time.

[dinasztie]

Meryl will get her third for The Iron Lady. That role begs for an Oscar. And she will be good enough to win, I'm sure.

I want it to happen to Glenn but it won't. Shame.

[Alex]

Nathaniel, when I saw God of Carnage onstage, the audience found it so funny because the cast was so serious. The comedy woven through the piece is so hilarious because it's the most serious thing to those onstage. But maybe that only translates theatrically? We'll see...

[Jones]

I'm just gonna make some predictions for best actress for now, who knows what will happen in the end.
BEST ACTRESS:
-Glenn Close
-Maggie Smith
-Meryl Streep
-Tilda Swinton
-Michelle Williams

*Worries: Plenty, 1) Close's "Albert Nobbs" might be too small to garner attention and it could have the fate of "Mother and Child". 2) Streep's "The Iron Lady" could be a dud given the directorial experience of Lloyd (Mamma Mia). 3) Tilda Swinton might be ignored yet again despite her flawless talent and what I'm sure will be an astounding performance.

I'm very confident about Williams, I think she's in a great position right now and has been delivering solid performances.

Dark horses?:
Kirsten Dunst, Rachel Weisz, Winslet (I'm really counting her as Supporting for Contagion but, who knows, she could be considered lead), Tomei.

Well, wishful thinking, only wishful thinking.

[Marsha Mason]

I think Meryl as Margaret will be another nomination where they say, "We just can't QUITE give her the third for this either," just like J&J and Doubt. I have a good feeling about Close.

[Ed]

I think that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo should be in "BIGGIES" category due to the fact that Fincher brought The Social Network last year and went home with no Oscar and because the Swedish adaptation was "ignored" by the AMPAS maybe because they were waiting for the Fincher's adaptation. In my opinion, Noomi Rapace wasn't nominated for the Oscar because they wanted to see how Rooney Mara would play the character.

I also think that The Adventures of Tintin should be taken seriously in the Best Picture category, because, with 10 possible nominees, it may be the "representative" of the Animated Features and we can't ignore the Steven Spielberg signature.

Personally, I've my fingers crossed for We Bought a Zoo. If Cameron Crowe do something with soul, like Jerry Maguire or Almost Famous, I think there will be a great movie with great performances that may give Oscar nods to some members of the cast, like Matt Damon or Scarlett Johansson (Crowe make some actresses deliver some of their career's best performances, look at Renée Zellweger, Frances McDormand, Kate Hudson or Cameron Diaz and he make me like Tom Cruise in "Jerry Maguire").

[Dimitra]

I think On The Road in totally a frontrunner. This my be due to e highly anticipating the film, but here's the thing:

-it's based on a classic novel
-it's an "american" story
-Walter Salles has directed acclaimed films
-Jose Rivera has been nominated already for best adapted screenplay
-F.F.Coppola is producing.

We'll see...

[adorian]

Although Coriolanus will be the big classy historical entry (with Vanessa Redgrave getting a supporting nod), let's not forget Anonymous...another historical film (Redgrave as Queen Elizabeth I) concerning the won't-go-away theory that Edward de Vere really wrote the Shakespeare canon. Remember...the Masterpiece Theatre label that some people thought would hurt The King's Speech actually helped it. And the same aura will cling to Anonymous, Coriolanus, and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (with Dames Judi and Maggie). We oldsters really appreciate that kind of old-fashioned literary film.

[Sandy]

What about Welcome to People? I'm still hopeful if this is released this year then a certain Ms Pfeiffer could bag a Best Supporting Actress nod.

[David]

You forgot about Lynne Ramsey's We Need to Talk About Kevin.

[David]

Correction to the comment above. I didn't notice that you did list We Need to Talk About Kevin, but I don't think it should be considered a "Curios" entry. Considering Lynne Ramsay's body of work (though small) is far from disappointing. Ramsay is a powerhouse and Tilda Swinton will certainly get attention for this film.

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