Friday
Apr012011
2011 Oscar Contenders. Did I Miss Any?
Friday, April 1, 2011 at 2:12PM UPDATED W/ SUGGESTIONS - FIRST WAVE CHART PREDIX (04/01 THROUGH 04/08)
As you can see over at the Oscar chart pages, I'm setting up the charts for Oscar's 84th year. This takes me awhile, alas. But here are some films I'm pondering for the "April Fool" predictions. i.e. not truly a prank but still foolish to try and guess this far in advance. I'll be filling in the pages all week. I never get this done in one day's time. Bear with me. Am I missing any 2011 films of note?
BIGGIES
These are the films that only have to be "good". Some will be much better than that and others will be worse but they'll get plenty of attention no matter what.
- CARNAGE Roman Polanski adapts the terrific one set/four character darkly comedic stage play. Can Jodie Foster, Christoph Waltz, Kate Winslet and John C Reilly pull this off?
- HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 Will Oscar take this opportunity to reward the series as a whole or will they figure a couple of nods here and there were reward enough?
- THE INVENTION OF HUGO CABRET Martin Scorsese tries his hand at adapting a children's book, a Caldecott winner too.
- J. EDGAR Clint Eastwood's Hoover biopic is supposedly a 2012 film. But Clint is fast and they've been filming for some time. I'd be very surprised if it wasn't December 2011.
- SUPER 8 JJ Abrams tries to become the new Spielberg with this child's eye sci-fi
- THE TREE OF LIFE Terrence Malick's mysterious 50s-era (sort of) drama. Even if people don't love it, they'll pretend that they do.
- WAR HORSE It's been six years since Steven Spielberg was enmeshed in an Oscar race (Munich). Will this WWI drama return him to AMPAS's good graces (not that he ever left. Can we please let someone else present Best Picture goddamnit.)
Many more after the jump. What am I missing? Save me from my own forgetfulness!
TRADITIONAL OSCAR ELEMENTS OR PREVIOUS NOMINEES. BUT WHO KNOWS...?
- THE CONSPIRATOR Lincoln Assassination courtroom drama with an all star cast. Why the long delay before release?
- CORIOLANUS Ralph Fiennes directs (and acts) in one of Shakespeare's lesser filmed works. Vanessa Redgrave and Gerard Butler co-star.
- DANGEROUS METHOD David Cronenberg isn't really Oscar's cuppa (too bad because his movies are so fine) but this one is a period biopic and the acting trio is possibly to die for (Fassbender, Mortensen, Knightley)
- THE DESCENDANTS Alexander Payne's first film since Sideways if you can believe it. With George Clooney as the patriarch of a family moving to Hawaii.
- THE IDES OF MARCH George Clooney does political drama. Will it be a Good Night, or Good Luck major player or a minor Syriana type?
- IRON LADY Meryl Streep does Margaret Thatcher but she can't be nominated every year, can she? Maybe you shouldn't answer that. She's acted in 42 features (excluding voice work) and has been nominated for 16 of them.
- JANE EYRE People love it but can it find a late year wind when it will have been on DVD for so long by then?
- MONEYBALL Brad Pitt in a sports management drama written by Aaron Sorkin.
- MY WEEK WITH MARILYN Michelle Williams as the bombshell in a picture that takes place during the making of The Prince and the Showgirl. Kenneth Branagh is playing Sir Laurence Olivier.
- ON THE ROAD Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diairies) takes on the Jack Kerouac book with a young glittery cast
- WHISTLEBLOWER Rachel Weisz in political quagmire. Why the long delay before release?
- YOUNG ADULT Juno's writing and directing team reunite for this one starring Charlize Theron as a divorcee out to reconnect with an ex-boyfriend (Patrick Wilson) who is married.
TINY POWERHOUSES?
Smaller films (like An Education, Winter's Bone, Precious and such in years past) need to rally very passionate fanbases to wrestle attention away from big money efforts. A few such films each year rise to that challenge. But which?
- ALBERT NOBBS Glenn Close reprises her stage role and even helped adapt the screenplay. From the director of Mother and Child.
- BEGINNERS The trailer was sweet, like Woody Allen without the misanthropy. Good cast especially. Could we see Christopher Plummer nominated again for this gay dad?
- THE EYE OF THE STORM Charlotte Rampling gets a plum lead role. We don't see much of that. Will Fred Schepisi's adaptation of the award-winning novel be good or a blip?
- LIKE CRAZY the much-discussed Sundance romance.
- MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE the much-discussed Sundance cult drama hit. With Elizabeth Olsen, Sarah Paulson and last year's nominee John Hawkes.
- RAMPART reteams four players from the high quality indie The Messenger (Foster, Oscar-nominated Harrelson, Oscar-nominated writer/director Oren Moverman and Steve Buscemi) for something that'll probably be more mainstream: a police corruption drama. Female stars joining in this time: Sigourney Weaver, Robin Wright and Anne Heche.
- TAKE THIS WALTZ Sarah Polley (Away From Her) writes and directs again! This romance stars Michelle Williams.
- WIN WIN Thomas McCarthy (The Station Agent, The Visitor) once again trains his intimate eye on recognizably human characters. Will he ever break out with Oscar?
CURIOS
They don't seem like Oscar films on the surface of it but if they make enough critics, cinephiles, specialty audiences orgasmic, you never know.
- THE BEAVER Jodie Foster and Mel Gibson won good reviews at SXSW but will there be enough of a larger embrace to power a "forgive Mel" Oscar campaign?
- CONTAGION Steven Soderbergh has recently announced that he's quitting the movies altogether (after Liberace). Is this all star thriller really that bad? (just kidding. he's always been restless)
- THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO How does this math work. Benjamin Button + Social Network = Oscar favorite now? Or does the absurd loss at last year's Oscars, mean they're still cool on Fincher? They have to be very excited about a film if it's pulpy mainstream genre stuff.
- IMMORTALS Tarsem Singh (The Cell, The Fall) can deliver visually, but he's yet to attract crowds or critics in enough numbers for the industry to really notice.
- MARGARET Kenneth Lonergan's starry ensemble drama about a fatal accident is now a few years old and still unreleased. That makes it a point of curiousity... as does his awesome directorial debut (You Can Count On Me... now 11 years old. That's a long time to wait for feature #2)
- MELANCHOLIA Lars Von Trier's latest whatsit with Kirsten Dunst and Charlotte Gainsbourg and a planet about to hit Earth.
- MIDNIGHT IN PARIS Woody Allen's "Oscar bait" status has long since expired. Even with minor hits like Vicky Cristina Barcelona he doesn't get screenplay nods anymore. I think he might need another true masterpiece like a Hannah or a Bullets to show up again.
- THE RUM DIARY Johnny Depp tries to play a human begin again. Will AMPAS go nuts or will this be a "Blow" and why the long delay before release?
- THE SKIN THAT I INHABIT Pedro Almodovar gets macabre in this revenge tale reuniting him with his only significant male muse, Antonio Banderas.
- THIS MUST BE THE PLACE The Il Divo director has Sean Penn looking like Robert Smith while trying to track his dad's Nazi murderer. Sounds... odd.
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY Tomas Alfredson (Let the Right One In) directs this espionage thriller starring Colin Firth. Espionage thrillers aren't usually something that Oscar gets excited about but Firth is on a roll lately. We'll see.
- W.E. Madonna's royals romance movie starring Abbie Cornish and Andrea Riseborough. I have a hunch it's going to good. Though even if it is, there's no telling what the reception will be like given the weird and one might say completely irrational feelings that Madonna provokes in people. Not too mention a true story that does the same.
- WATER FOR ELEPHANTS It might be terrible. But if it's good, aren't nominations more than possible? At least visual nominations it being the circus and all.
- WE BOUGHT A ZOO Cameron Crowe (Almost Famous, Elizabethtown) returns with this animal husbandry family drama. Seems like the type of thing that could tip either way: massively celebrated / roundly ignored.
- WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN Lynne Ramsay (Morvern Callar) returns directing Tilda Swinton (yes!) in this drama about a family dealing with their homicidal son.
TECHS? RANDOMNESS? ANIMATION GHETTO? 2012?
- Superhero/Blockbuster Fun (?) Pack: THOR, CAPTAIN AMERICA, GREEN LANTERN, X-MEN: FIRST CLASS? Which of the four summer superhero movies can manage an Oscar nod or two? There's also stuff like RISE OF THE APES, SHERLOCK HOLMES 2, TRANSFORMERS 3, REAL STEEL, THE RAVEN, MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL, COWBOYS AND ALIENS and something has to fill up the tech categories that the Best Picture contenders don't happen to hog.
- Dire Animated Year? After last year's creamy crop, we've got a bunch of sequels/franchise stuff coming including CARS 2, KUNG FU PANDA 2, PUSS N BOOTS, HOODWINKED TOO, and WINNIE THE POOH. Then there are the busy looking originals like RIO, ARTHUR CHRISTMAS and came and went stuff like GNOMEO & JULIET and MARS NEEDS MOMS and terrible looking half-animated stuff like HOP and THE SMURFS. Will RANGO have any competition at all for the win? ADVENTURES OF TINTIN has big cast and great director (Spielberg) but this type of animation was disqualified as of last year. I personally disagree with the ruling but what can you do?
- God, who knows? THE LADY, CRAZY STUPID LOVE, THE MUPPETS, PARIAH, RECKLESS, SHAME, THE HELP, TYRANNOSAUR, THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL, THE FUTURE, DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, BEAUTIFUL BOY, HAYWIRE, THE DETAILS, ONE DAY, LARRY CROWNE, THE WOMAN IN THE FIFTH, HIGHER GROUND, DREAM HOUSE and WUTHERING HEIGHTS.
- We're going to assume they're 2012: David Frankel's GREAT HOPE SPRINGS (with Meryl Streep), Michael Haneke's LOVE, Stephen Daldry's EXTREMELY LOUD AND UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE (with Hanks and Bullock), Stephen Frears' LAY THE FAVORITE (with Rebecca Hall), Andrew Dominik's COGAN'S TRADE (with Brad Pitt) and Lasse Halström's THE DANISH GIRL (with Nicole Kidman and rotating other female lead. It's currently Rachel Weisz but we've been here before.)
tagged Best Picture, Oscars (11)
Best Picture, Oscars (11)
Reader Comments (73)
Finally a list of movies I'm looking forward to- I'm sick of hearing about Thor et al.
Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin just seems like perfect casting! And it's directed by Lynne Ramsey. I have such high hopes for this.
I think you missed one huge one - Albert Nobbs.
I also think The Help will be campaigned HEAVILY if it's any good.
I'm not holding my breath, but I'm hoping "Water for Elephants" shows some promise. It's such an incredible book. Maybe a screenplay nod?!
Oh, and I think Shame could make some noise - although the critical spotlight will probably lean more toward Fassy's performance in A Dangerous Method. Maybe a screenplay nod for McQueen.
I personally don't think that Rango is the frontrunner for Annimated Film. Tintin probaly will be the major player.
My Top 20, right now (assuming no Extremely Loud)
1. J. Edgar
2. War Horse
3. The Descendants
4. Albert Nobbs
5. On the Road
6. The Help
7. A Dangerous Method
8. Hugo Cabret
9. The Ides of March
10. The Tree of Life
11. Super 8
12. One Day
13. Carnage
14. Shame
15. Harry Potter 7, II
16. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
17. Meek's Cutoff
18. Immortals
19. Tintin
20. My Week with Marilyn
I saw Tyrannosaur last night. I'm not sure if it'll be too brutal for people or something but if critics get behind him then Peter Mullan could totally wipe the floor with Best Actor this year.
This Must Be the Place? Sean Penn + Frances McDormand + Harry Dean Stanton + nazi hunter, look like a good combo for the academy.
Let The Right One In's Tomas Alfredson is directing Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy with Gary Oldman in the lead (also Colin Firth and Tom Hardy). Feels like a competitor this year.
Can we retire category ghetto?
Marion Cotillard for Supporting Actress, Midnight in Paris
Thoughts:
1) I'm not buying the Harry Potter Oscar talk at all. LOTR:ROTK was given the Oscar for the entire trilogy, but that was a very different situation-- the trilogy was widely acclaimed and all three movies had been Oscar Best Picture nominees. The HP series has nowhere near that level of acclaim and fewer Oscar nominations than the first LOTR alone.
2) I haven't seen any of the Sundance movies, but I've heard two or three times from people who were at the festival that we should not expect a "Winter's Bone"-esque Sundance-to-Oscar rise out of this year's crop of films.
3) I'm not sure what I think about their chances, but Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Contagion also have some promise, I'd think.
4) I would so love for Beginners to be awesome and win Christopher Plummer an Oscar. Same goes for Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs (if she deserves it, I'd also be happy for a third for Meryl).
5) Please, please, please let Michael Fassbender be awesome in A Dangerous Method (which I'd say has huge BP Oscar chances, btw). In my early predictions, I put it just behind the Tree of Life (whose chances I may have inflated a bit, ha).
Tintin can compete in animated category?
Whoops- meant to add that I get a "The Secret Lives of Bees" feel from "The Help."
I think Colin Firth gets his third consecutive Best Actor nomination for "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" a la Russell Crowe.
Contagion look like this century's version of The Towering Inferno. But the Academy did like that one...
where's contagion?
Um...I didn't hear that Beowulf or The Polar Express got DQ'd in their years. Hell, Monster House got a nomination. The similarity? Those are all the major "mocapimation" movies. So, yeah, Tintin most likely will be competing in the animated category and is, at this point, most likely Rango's strongest competition, unless one of those sequels (Cars 2 mostly) gets a strong reception. If Cars 2 does get surprise good reception (Evil Dead 1 to Evil Dead 2 size quality jump could certainly be possible considering this is Pixar)...expect possibilities of a three way showdown. And Evan: Tate Taylor is an unproven director. I don't like to field ANY guesses as to how critical reception will turn on films by unproven directors. Once I have a taste of how you've been received, then I start guessing how your movie could fare with critics.
@ Ibbs, I saw Tyrannosaur last night as well. While I think Peter Mullan gave a fine performance, I agree about the film being a little hard to watch- at point, a little brutal (ie: the "bookends"). Who knows, that hasn't stopped the Academy before.
Also, Eddie Marsan has to stop playing these silly side characters. I adore him, but he's starting to get pigeon hold into those roles.
I'm hoping there might be some awards love for The Eye Of The Storm. Lots of previous Oscar players involved: Geoffrey Rush, Charlotte Rampling, Judy Davis directed by Fred Schepisi and based on a novel by a Pulitzer winner. It's a meaty family relationship drama and is tipped for inclusion at Toronto - perfect timing for awards season. I'm hoping Schepisi, who I generally find a solid but uninspiring director, can pull off something special with this stunning cast and material...?
I feel like 'Win Win' could stick around for a nom or two, screenplay being more likely than acting.
Mike: George Smiley is the lead character of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Gary Oldman is George Smiley. Thus, Colin Firth is some form of supporting role to Smiley. This is strange, especially because...who's really itching for a lead nomination for Gary Oldman at this point? It'd be good vindication for a charismatic lead turn in Sid and Nancy 24 years ago, but people are more used to the guy as a support at this point and itching more for that nomination. (The potential campaign for The Dark Knight was stolen by the villain lead, Jeff Bridges stole the potential of him being nommed for The Contender, a tertiary performance (Tommy Lee Jones perf as Clay Bertrand/Shaw) stole the potential of a JFK nom and True Romance and Leon (which I personally hold as his two best pieces of work) were, unfortunately, also too ridiculous for the Academy. But that's what you get when you play a white Rasta drug dealer and an insane FBI agent, the former of which is still the most memorable part of a cast FILLED WITH memorable parts. I choose the latter as his winning part more as a forgiveness win because I know no performance should have been able to top Ralph Fiennes Amon Goethe.)
Oops - my above post should've referred to Patrick White as a Nobel winner not Pulitzer. Still, you get the picture - the book's quite good!
I think Winnie the Pooh is a strong contender for the animated film and have an outside shot at best picture. It is Disney's 2nd most famous character and they seems to be putting more weight on this one then the previous Tigger/Piglet movies.
Volvagia, clearly I haven't seen "The Help" and have no idea whether it will be good or not. I'm just saying that I am a little skeptical about best-selling novels targeted toward women which are then developed into movies.
Oh yeah- and I'm also curious about The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
This isn't about haven't seen. It's "does this director have any sort of critical track record." I'm guessing Tree of Life will be very well received and could be a competitor for Best Picture. And Nat: Colin Firth isn't the star of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. It's, as I mentioned before, Gary Oldman. I'd say that means it's more a "who knows" than a curio.
Beautiful Boy looks like a great movie. However, a drama this heavy can often be dismissed as a pill too hard to swallow. But these are just the sort of roles that garner critical acclaim and - if the actors knock it out of the park - elevate the film itself into contention. I see, if it goes over with the right people, three actors (Bello, Sheen, Tudyk) who could very well be looking at their first nominations.
HIGHER GROUND - vera farmiga
MELANCHOLIA -
Who knows, My Idiot Brother?
I know it's early, but I'm going to predict right now that Contagion is nominated. Have any of you read the script reviews? They say it's a return to form for Soderbergh, and more akin to the international scope of Traffic than a "virus thriller" like Outbreak.
Nathaniel,
Any word on August Osage County filming and release dates. I read filming begins summer 2011 but then see on IMDB that it is a 2013 release?
What's Up?
I really, really, really want to see Carnage.
I am not getting my hopes up for Tree of Life being released until it's in theaters.
Markus -- i don't know details but it's not even on Meryl's IMDb page so i'm guessing it's not official. especially given that she's not done with Iron Lady and then she's filming Great Hope Springs after that.
andrew -- i'm getting so worried about Carnage. What's tarting to bother me is that the cast seems SO dramatic and the play is so so funny. I don't really think of Jodie & Kate as gifted comedically. not that they've never been funny in certain scenes or what have you but i'm so nervous about this.
Nathaniel,
For smaller films you're missing Take Shelter. Michel Shannon's performance voted #1 of Sundance (ahead of Olsen) in a critics poll.
Nathaniel,
August is on Meryl's IMDB page under In Development 2013...
Will you have any of the categories done tonight? :)
I've seen the trailer for The Eye of the Storm, and it is quite clear that Charlotte Rampling's role is supporting to Davis' and Rush's.
I think the English title of "La piel que habito" will be "The Skin I Live In" - "The Skin I Inhabit" is a direct translation.
extremely loud and incredibly close is total oscar bait, and daldry gets a nom every time out, so it would have to really suck to get ignored. also, meek's cutoff is arthouse, but if it gets rave reviews a la winter's bone, it could stick around, especially since williams is becoming an oscar darling. and sundance hit like crazy has a shot too.
i think you're underestimating girl with dragon tattoo, contagion, and tinker. tailor. the 10 noms slot is there to include box office hits, and any box office winner that gets good reviews these days is a shoo-in.
my predictions, fwiw:
war horse
hugo cabret
tree of life
the ides of march
super 8
girl with dragon tattoo
extremely loud and incredibly close
j.edgar
we bought a zoo
a dangerous method
next tier:
tinker tailor soldier spy
carnage
the descendants
on the road
my week with marilyn
contagion
meek's cutoff
one day
moneyball
young adult
Nate, check your facebook messages ;)
Certified Copy and Juliette Binoche for Best Actress. A boy can dream, can he?
Don't forget Margaret, it's been a really really long time but it's supposed to be finally edited
Beautiful Boy could provide awards traction for Maria Bello or Michael Sheen
And who know's Madonna's W.E. could potentially be good, and she is "technically" and actor turned director.
I think "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" is a strong contender for many categories.
I predict War Horse will win Best Pic. Lazy guess but not really. I don't think they have missed awarding Spielberg but I still think this has the best chances.
Tree of Life
Moneyball
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Contagion
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Hugo Cabret
Dangerous Method
Hm... I wonder if the first of The Millennium Trilogy movies will also help to still Harry Potter's thunder. Hadn't thought of that before this thread...
I think J. Edgar is definitely in the mix this year. Apparently, Clint just wrapped. According to an extra, the crew was buzzing and the vibe was good that this could be something really special. Also the word from Cinemacon where they showed a 30 second clip of the film featuring DiCaprio has been excellent all around so far.
Well, these are my 25 most anticipated titles of 2011:
THE TREE OF LIFE (Terrence Malick)
THE DESCENDANTS (Alexander Payne)
A DANGEROUS METHOD (David Cronenberg)
THE SKIN THAT I INHABIT (Pedro Almodovar)
SHAME (Steve McQueen)
LOVE (Michael Haneke)
CONTAGION (Steven Soderbergh)
MELANCHOLIA (Lars von Trier)
YOUNG ADULT (Jason Reitman)
RESTLESS (Gus Van Sant)
WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN (Lynne Ramsey)
HANNA (Joe Wright)
JANE EYRE (Cary Fukunaga)
TAKE THIS WALTZ (Sarah Polley)
THE IDES OF MARCH (George Clooney)
THE INVENTION OF HUGO CABRET (Martin Scorcese)
ONE DAY (Lone Scherfig)
WAR HORSE (Steven Spielberg)
TINKER, TAYLOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Thomas Alfredson)
SOURCE CODE (Duncan Jones)
MEEK’S CUTOFF (Kelly Reichardt)
THE FUTURE (Miranda July)
MARGARET (Kenneth Lonergan)
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (David Fincher)
ON THE ROAD (Walter Salles)
I didn't add CARNAGE, THE DANISH GIRL, COGAN'S TRADE, EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE and even J. EDGAR because we don't know if they'll be released this year or the next.
In your list I didn't see:
- DREAM HOUSE (Weisz, Craig - Jim Sheridan directing)
- THE DETAILS (Maguire, Banks - Jacob Aaron Estes directing)
- CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE (Gosling - Requa directing)
- HAYWIRE (another Soderbergh; TRAFFIC-look a like)
- WIN WIN (Giamatti got Sideways-like reviews for this)
- DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK (if it's good, it's a Del Toro; tech noms possible)
- LAY THE FAVORITE (Stephen Frears directing)
- MARGARET (the new Kenneth Lonergan)
- RESTLESS (Gus Van Sant)
- TAKE THIS WALTZ (Sarah Polley)
...
Oh and you didn't mention YOUNG ADULT there when you know if it's any good it'll get major nominations.
Diablo Cody, Jason Reitman, Charlize Theron... If it is as good as 'Up in the Air' or 'Juno', I can see it getting 6 or 7 noms.
U forgot Almodovar's new film wwith Banderas on it
How about Luc Besson‘s "The Lady" with Michelle Yeoh as Aung San Suu Kyi?
Looks like a very batiy biopic. And I wouldn't mind seeing Yeoh becomes the first Asian actress to win an Oscar in the lead category.
Whatever happened to that film Angelina Jolie was directing in Bosnia
I'm going to say that Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy is a biggie and might be the strongest contender when all's said and done. Shame and Young Adult have some good chances. Crazy, Stupid Love might make some noise at the Golden Globes. I have a feeling On the Road is going to be a big critical flop and go the way of Howl as another movie trying to cater to hipster audiences. Some sure bets for now:
Lubezki finally WINNING an oscar for cinematography
Fincher getting another nom
An interesting race for best director