Oscar History

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« Oscar Nominations Announcement | Main | BAFTA ♥ Lincoln (But Not Spielberg) »

Finally Final Predictions

Click on over to the Oscar Prediction Charts if you'd like to laugh at my broken crystal ball in time for the morning announcement. If you'd like more agonized reasoning there's this post from yesterday. A few of the pages are down for prep for tomorrow and more will be down as we approach the announcement (for the same reason). I'll type as fast as I can tomorrow.

This year seems extraordinarily hard to predict with beautifully wild "anything goes" 5th slot dreams abounding. Anne Hathaway would like to warn us that dreaming dreams can be dangerous but we can't help ourselves this time of year. The tigers come at night...

Nomination Morning is my Christmas Eve and the only thing I've asked Santa (aka The Academy) for is nominations for Kidman, McConaughey and Riva and something, anything, for Beasts of the Southern Wild which some people feel confident about but those 'some people' do not include me. Is it because it's so close to my heart and I need it in the Oscar history books? (And can I just express, right here and now, that the fact that all of these things are longshots is damn depressing)

  • What did you ask Oscar Santa for? 
  • And what are you expecting as your lump of coal in the morning?
  • Do you take the day off work on Oscar nomination morning or warn them you'll be late? 

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Reader Comments (40)

1) Best Picture nomination for Moonrise Kingdom.
2) No Best Picture nomination for Moonrise Kingdom
3) No, I just go to work like (most) everyone else. Put my pants on one leg at a time, etc etc.

Merry Christmas!

January 9, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterRoark

Rachel Weisz! Please, Santa!

January 9, 2013 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

1-The Dark Knight Rises for Best Picture or at least a few technical nods.
2-Not a thing for TDKR.
3-Usually January is pretty quiet at my job but I stupidly agreed to work Tomorrow (and today) from 9 am - 5 pm, so I won't see the nominations live. I will be DVR'ing them, though, so I'll have to avoid looking at my phone for most of the day.

January 9, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterDaniel Armour

I'm asking Oscar Santa for both Cotillard and Riva to make it. Neither performance or film is what traditionally coasts to a nomination (*cough* Mirren *cough*), and perhaps it would signal a new age of genuinely looking beyond our language for the best in film (even if "foreign" often ends up meaning "Western European", but I digress).

My lump of coal is guaranteed to be the entire Best Supporting Actor category. Arkin, De Niro, Hoffman, and Jones all seem like such unimaginative nominees. It's as if even the good performances in the bunch are only being rewarded by the Academy because they were performed by their pals. Hopefully Redmayne, McConaughey, or one of the Django guys gets in the liven things up.

January 9, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterBryan

I'm focusing all my psychic karmic voodoo energies on Beasts. Don't have enough mojo to bend the universe in favor of anything else, so I'm glad you're taking care of Nicole for me. I'm dreading that my lump of coal will be no Quevenzhane and a heap of Mirren and Watts instead.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterTB

Just finalising my predictions now - LOOK to see them later.

Please god/santa/jesus/anyone let the supporting actress line up be Jessica, Jennifer, Marion, Emmaunelle & Quvenzhane - LOOK at that perfect symmetry.

and let the supporting be Anne, Helen, Sally, Nicole & Ann.

And please ignore Helen & Amy, I adore them too much to let the backlash get to them.

There'll be more Maggie/more Rachel & Naomi is in it to win it in 2013 with Caught in Flight. That is all.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commentermorganisaqt

1. My requests to Oscar Santa are selfish: I'm asking that Rust and Bone not get nominated because I live in Arkansas and there's absolutely no chance that I will get to see it before the big night. I kind of feel the same way about Amour, but I keep telling myself that there's no way in hell that a best picture nominee will not get a wide release.

2. I'm worried that Django steals Moonrise's picture nom. I think that the people who would rank Django first are the same people who will rank Moonrise first, and I worry that Django gets it because it's fresher. Put another month inbetween them, the buzz for Django dies down and Moonrise gets it.

3. I totally take a sick day on Oscar Nom Morning.

4. The Master gets in. Once you get past 5 nominees only first place votes matter. I can't believe the Master can't find 5% of the vote.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterIan

1) Please don't nominate Hellen Mirren, Santa. I want to hear Wallis, Weisz, or Riva tomorrow (all three would be cool too, but is impossible :P)

2) Helen Mirren. :(

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip

On Oscar morning I would like:
--Beasts of the Southern Wild for Best Picture, Original Score (it's light years ahead of the other contenders in my book), Original Screenplay, and if the Oscar gods are feeling especially kind, Actress
--the best performance of the year, that of Joaquin Phoenix, in Best Actor
--Chile in Foreign Language Film

Is this too much to ask?

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterEvan

1. Best Picture nomination for Amour, but not because I think it deserves to be nominated. Actually, I haven't seen it, and that's exactly why I want it to be nominated. Living in Florida, the only way Amour is ever going to open in a theater near me is if it gets a Best Picture nomination, and because I've been wanting to see it very badly all year, I hope it gets in for Best Picture.

2. The Master snubbed for Best Cinematography.

3. Luckily I get off work at 2pm, meaning I won't have to wait too long to look at the nominations, and they'll be waiting for me when I get home.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterEdwin

1. Any pleasant surprise outside of everyone's usual suspects. I'm a sucker for surprise, as I tend to get bored after a while. I don't even remember who won what in which critics award after the third critics award, because all of them seemed to only reward the same 10 movies over and over.
2. Nothing for Cloud Atlas, not even a tech nomination. I'm sorry Nathaniel but I really do like the movie. They already did it in the makeup category so I'm worried other tech branches will follow.
3. When the nominees are revealed at 5.30am PT, it would be 9.30pm here in my country. So I'm lying in my bed, refreshing my laptop every 5 seconds waiting for your live blog.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterPJ

My hope is that Jones is the only lock in Supporting Actor that actually gets in. Please. But I know that will be my coal.

Does anyone know a good network or website to watch the nominations live??

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterSteve

Online racists have me paranoid about Denzel securing the fifth slot in Actor—nervous.
I want my Kidman in Supp Actress—please!
Paul getting in for director and THE MASTER getting Picture.
Fiona Apple for the best original song of the year—you don't fuck when you fuck (I'll always think of Paul Rudd when I hear that line).

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commenter3rtful

what exact time is the full nominee list available? and is it only at oscar? is it during or right after mcfarlane and stone present? and finally, do some people get it a few minutes earlier?

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commentertesh

Here's who I DON'T want as nominees for an Oscar (even though I might have them on my prediction list tomorrow)
- Helen Mirren for Actress (not over Marion Cotillard, Quvenzhane Wallis, or Emmanuelle Riva)
- Denzel Washington for Actor (not over Joaquin Phoenix or Jean Louis Trintignant)
- Any of the Django guys for Supporting (not over Andy Serkis for playing Gollum, or Dwight Henry in Beasts)
- Jacki Weaver for Supporting Actress (not over Amy Adams in the Master)
- Marion Cotillard for Actress (not over Emmanuelle Riva in Amour)
- Django for Picture (not over The Master, Amour, or Beasts of the Southern Wild)
- Argo for Cinematography (not over Anna Karenina)
- Life of Pi for Adapted Screenplay (not over... well I don't know; I thought it was flawed)
- Flight or Django for Original Screenplay (not over Looper or The Master)

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commentertesh

1. Oscar Santa.

I will be asking for nominations for Amy Adams until she gets her " Apology Oscar" for not even being nominated for "Enchanted". Also, I am in the unvocal minority that believes "The Dark Knight Rises" deserves a nomination for Best Picture.

2. Coal in the Stocking

Unsurprisingly, I expect hopes to be dashed on the "Dark" front. I have also pretty much given up hope that the Writer's branch will give a nod to "Ruby Sparks", a wonderful screenplay that is the rarest of gems - a good, smart science fiction / fantasy story that works on the screen.

3. Viewing Plans

On the West Coast, all we have to do is set our alarms for 5:00 a.m. My condolences to those living in parts of America where this is not an option.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterCarl

- The Perks of Being a Wallflower for adapted screenplay
- Adele & Florence + The Machine
- Matthew McConaughey
- The Master for Cinematography
- Holy Motors for anything
- Seth MacFarlane & Emma Stone announcing they're gonna be my husband and wife

(Last year I only asked for FASSBENDER so that bastard owes me everything I'm asking this year.)

2. HELEN MIRREN!!!!!! or something like The Blind Side getting a nomination for Best Picture

3. I'm on vacations!! so HYFR

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterChecko

I guess we are minority predicting Eddie Redmayne for supporting actor. :) Interesting predictions though

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterNika

1) Just Nicole. I don't ask for much though Matthew for Magic Mike will cause endless giggles.

2) Nicole again. I will not be surprised AT ALL.

3) I'm "in-between jobs" so that should'nt be a problem.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterDerreck

1) The Impossible for pic, actress, supporting actor, prod design
2) Django for anything, Matthew M for supporting
3) California, so plenty of time to get to work

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commentermikey67

Please Moonrise, Redmayne, Kidman, Beasts, Skyfall. Please no Django, Cooper, Tarantino. Please Oscar Santa please.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

Jennifer Lawrence is my lump of coal. Love you, hon, but not this year, please.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

Noms for Kidman and Weisz! Please, Santa! I promise to be good for a whole year!!

But honestly Nicole is the #1 priority. As long as Nic is in, I would probably be okay with the Hobbit in every category.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterTom

- Knightley, Law and Wright for Anna Karenina
- Hooper
- I expect to have wine flu in the morning

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterMareko

1. Joaquin Phoenix for Actor (hopefully not at the expense of Jackman) and Looper for Original Screenplay.
2. The Master left off for Cinematography or even, gasp, not nominated for anything except for the, hopefully, Hoffman lock.
3. Nope, gotta be in work at 8:30 right when they start announcing, which means I'll be constantly refreshing my phone until I get all the details.

And now that it's after midnight here... happy holiday, fellow Oscar lovers.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterJoey

There've been some big surprises in the Best Actor category in recent years (Damien Bichir and Javier Barden). Could be wishful thinking, but might it be possible we get another one this year? Maybe Trintignant for Amour, Gere for Arbitrage or Pena for End of Watch?

The upset I'd most like to see, though, is for cinematographer Greig Fraser recognized for one of his films this year (ZD30, Killing Them Softly, Snow White). After missing Bright Star, he's owed a nomination and his work in the one film I've seen so far (KTS) was distinctive.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterW.J.

Finally finished my predictions. Please lord, let there be light, Quvenzhane and Emmanuelle.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commentermorganisaqt

I'm focusing all of my wishing powers to make sure LOOPER and PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER get those well-deserved Screenplay nods. Come on, Academy, do the right thing! Okay, maybe I'm also hoping for Eddie Redmayne's shock nomination.

My lump of coal would be if THE AVENGERS get no nominations. I just want one. I don't care which one. Visual Effects? One of the Sounds? ANYTHING AT ALL.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterRyan T.

My Oscar wish list...

1.) Best Adapted Screenplay: The Perks of Being a Wallflower
2.) Best Supporting Actress: Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
3.) Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
4.) Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
5.) Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterRyanSt

1. I wish Ruby Sparks would get an Original Screenplay nomination.
I also liked Steve's suggestion that the only Supporting Actor "lock" to get a nomination would be Tommy Lee Jones.

2. Every year, they inexplicably nominate some piece of crap they just love, and I just loathe. That's the way it is, and I'm prepared to just ignore it.

3. With my time zone, no difficulties.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commenteradri

1) ANYTHING for Perks...adapted screenplay is most likely, but even that is definitely not a sure thing...so if it gets in, I WILL BE ECSTATIC...and if Oscar is feeling especially generous then a supporting actor nomination for Ezra Miller would be divine...particularly over Arkin and De Niro's autopilot performances. A supporting actress nomination for Emma Watson seems so otherworldy and unattainable that I won't even bother.

2) Helen Mirren for Hitchcock. It was bad enough that she edged out TILDA SWINTON for a once-in-a-lifetime performance in Julia, but I let it egregiously slide since she wasn't gaining any traction for that performance. If she knocks out Riva, Weisz, or even Wallis (ladies who are certainly IN the conversation at the moment), then I will be aghast.

3) I usually ask off, but now since I am currently unemployed, I will be staying in. Probably the only perk of not having a job is being able to watch the Oscar nominations :)

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

@Aaron: Ugh I want those impossible acting nominations for Perks too.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterTB

1) Helen Hunt nomination.Hawkes as well, but Hunt first.
2) Skyfall for picture, supporting actress and actor, cinemetography, song.
3) Fiona Apple. Haven't heard the song or seen the film, but Oscar nominee Fiona Apple would be pretty sweet.
4) Ruby Sparks screenplay. The Sessions as well. Maybe.
5) Hathaway for The Dark Knight Rises. lol probably should see more films.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterTim B.

Live stream link via official Oscar youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cM3-uj3rOns No need to thank me, just send scotch and money.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commenterbbats

1) It has to be Riva. My wishlist is longer than my arm but if I have to plump for one, my willpower needs to secure her in there. I need the category to party like it's 1966 and show some depth and global reach again.

2) Alan Ar-go fuck off Arkin. I don't understand how such a recent winner is the Argo guy that got the traction. Career nod for Goodman or Cranston, I'd accept, even if there are countless actors more worthy than anyone in Argo this year.

3) It's 13:30 in the UK, so I'm scheduling my lunch break especially.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterDavid

Check out MY last predictions on every categorie at http://www.mondoglam.com/search/label/Oscars

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterMartin

1) Cotillard and Riva, I've not been as moved by any other acting this year, or for several years.
2) THE DAMES, Maggie and Helen. The only Dame deserving is Judi for Skyfall.
3) I'm in a four hour lecture on Eighteenth Century Theatre hoping that my lip syncing reading skills are as good as I need them to be, SPEAK TO ME EMMA STONE.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterKeegan

Rachel Weisz, pleaseeeee!!!!

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered Commenterferdi

If Phoenix, Weisz, McConaughey, Dowd, or Perks for anything make it, I shall be through the roof. If all five make it-I shall be in literal tears of joy at my computer.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterGeoffrey

1. Phoenix, Adams and Hoffman all getting nominated for "The Master," plus Gere for "Arbitrage." "War Witch" in Foreign...that goes without saying.

2. Only Hoffman getting nominated for "The Master;" Mirren and Arkin getting nominated.

3. I'm hijacking the TV at work...and they can't stop me.

January 10, 2013 | Unregistered CommenterBill_the_Bear

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