SAG Winners Win Again
Saturday, January 18, 2014 at 9:53PM 
A quick break from festival screenings to shove food in my face (tortilla chips, peppermint patty, a tangerine. Healthy!) and watch a few minutes of the SAG Awards. But I won't be able to do the whole thing as I'll be racing back to hopefully get into a new Mark Ruffalo movie with the unwieldy title of Infinite Polar Bear. Why must everything happen within the same two weeks? Since I didn't get to watch, not really, I trust you'll share your favorite moments in the comments so I can seek them out on YouTube later (like the non-movie obsessed civilians who see everything they're curious about that way. Such a strange lifestyle!)
It may seem morbid to say but I enjoy SAG's "in memoriam" section so much more than Oscars. Perhaps it's their limited focus on actors but it gives them a chance to show a million clips instead of just quick flashes without much in the way of dialogue
FILM WINNERS
ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
American Hustle
MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"
MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"
FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years A Slave"
ACTION PERFORMANCE BY STUNT ENSEMBLE
"Lone Survivor"
TELEVISION
ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad"
ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
"Modern Family"
MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey"
Dame Maggie has better things to do then attend awards show!
MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Michael Douglas, "Behind the Candelabra"
FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR MINISERIES
Helen Mirren, "Phil Spector"
ACTION PERFORMANCE BY STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A TELEVISION SERIES
"Game of Thrones"
I'm always hoping that the Oscar acting races will be real competitions but most years this ends up happening with all the big shows in regimented lock-step for all four categories with maybe ONE errant choice by one show. It's such a drama killer... and these people are in the business of making drama for us to enjoy. Why does this happen, this winner-takes-all effect? Theories. Got any?
Live Blog, SAG, precursor awards
Reader Comments (62)
To answer your question, there are way too many award shows (and awards).
McConaughey is definitely taking it over Ejiofor at the Oscars... :/
Wow rita moreno!!!! Soooo touching and a class act! She looks 52 not82 holy crap!!!
God, Matthew McConaughey's speech made me cringe. It was like trying so hard to be a good speech that would be a subtle "vote for me at the Oscars" kinda thing, but it was SO bad. I loved when Cate through shade at him, ahhaha. So perfect.
And I was THRILLED when Lupita won! Yay. Get that Oscar, girl. I could see her taking the BAFTA too, and if she does, I'd say it's pretty much hers. I just don't wanna be too sure because when Viola won the SAG, I was like "yay, the Oscar is hers" and well... we know how that turned out. :/
Cate has been throwing shade all awards season long and I love her for it.
My answer to your question: if you get a large enough group of people together and have them vote, the law of averages wins out. The groups may change slightly-- this time it's the actors, then the producers, then the Brits, then the directors-- but they're all cinephiles and the overall favorite shouldn't be that different, particularly when they all vote within a two month span.
Every year, Awards Daily simulates the Oscars. I've noticed that despite all the complaining that goes on among the young cinephile blogger community about the Academy's stodginess, this simulation more or less approximates the Oscars' line-up year in and year out. Remove away the 'young' variable and I'm sure it'd be exact same many years.
Also, the clips for the supporting actresses in film were extremely well chosen for each one of them.
And when I say his speech made me cringe, I mean literally. I physically cringed. I hope that speech causes Chiewetel to come through (assuming he wins the BAFTA). Thank goodness we don't have to see a Matthew McConaughey speech at the BAFTAs, lol.
I posted this at In Contention, but I'll post it here to counter this defeatist mood I'm hearing: "Actually, I'm not sure Matthew McConaughey has Oscar in the bag just yet. There's still a question mark, and that's Leonardo DiCaprio, whose Wolf of Wall Street was not viewed in time for SAG to nominate it. McConaughey has not yet beaten Leonardo DiCaprio to an award. They both won Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards in separate categories, and if Leo wins BAFTA, I'd say we have a competition on out hands (if someone else wins BAFTA, then yes, I'll concede McConaughey takes the Oscar). What's exciting is that these two won't really face each other until Oscar, and there's always the possibility of them cancelling each other out. I may just be rambling, but we'll see. Also, I don't think Jennifer Lawrence is out just yet (with nominations in all four acting categories, I find it very hard to believe American Hustle won't walk away with at least one, and she's the most plausible). Again, we'll see..."
To think MM and Jared Leto could win Oscars for those performances makes me rather ill. As Philip H., I cringed with both of their speeches. It feels like after their Globes speeches, they got hand slapped, and are now trying too hard to not cause any bad press and stay politically correct. But I think out of the two, the win I will lament the most will be Leto's. I've never found him interesting as an actor, and to think he will be an oscar winner before Fassbender is just irksome.
As usual, only a couple of the actors on the film side (Blanchett, Nyong'o) and a handful on the TV side (Breaking Bad, Cranston, Burrell, Louis-Dreyfus) of my ballot walked away winners. (And both of my stunt choices lost.) SAG is so disappointing, or rather, my guild brothers and sisters have such predictable taste. I'm especially bummed at the choices for Cast of a Motion Picture, TV Comedy Ensemble, TV Drama Actress and TV Movie/Miniseries Actress.
Look on the bright side. Liza Minnelli is probably keeping her Oscar at this point. Maybe she has more pull than anticipated with these awards groups. Maybe if we can get her screeners for the Short Term 12-like films of 2014, the next Brie Larson can get nominated with ease.
"Did you guys know that two men can have sex? Lolololololol" --Michael Douglas
And can someone explain to me how Maggie Smith has so consistently stolen awards from Anna Gunn? Not even Gunn's final chance was enough to stop the Quippy British Lady lovefest.
I have to echo everyone on Matthew McConaughey and his speech. He actually reminds me of Sarah Palin when he speaks. They both speak in circles, grasp at odd metaphors, and overestimate the charm of their "aw, shucks" act. Saturday Night Live is missing a golden opportunity if they don't mock him tonight.
And this is my semi-regular gripe that SAG is AWFUL. They go with the most milquetoast choices year after year AND, because they announce nominations so early, they basically get to frame the entire nominating season. At least this year, as with last year, they had a fairly low nominations match rate with Oscar, so perhaps awards pundits will pay less attention to them over time.
I think avid cinephiles like the readers of this site watch more and care more about watching a wide array of movies every year than actual industry members care.
I wish with all these awards bodies competing with each other by moving their annoucements earlier and earlier, the Oscars would buck the trend and announce later in the season. Giving voters more time to consider other entries might produce more diverse noms.
I agree with the annoyance at convergence of one or two performers in any one category. With that said, Picture, Director, Actor, and supporting actor are not set in stone, even if some of those categories are only between 2 different nominees.
Remember 2007's Best Supporting Actress race, when Globes went for Blanchett, SAG went for Dee, BFCA went for Ryan and BAFTA went for Swinton? Are those days gone forever?! :(
Cate's speech was a gem!
I'm glad Lupita is still in viable competition for supporting actress. I hope she takes it for both her sake and Jennifer Lawrence's. Jen will undoubtedly be invited back to the dance at a future date if she doesn't win this year, if she does it will probably hurt her chances for that to happen, and though Lupita is a fine actress who knows what opportunities will present themselves for her to return.
best part was Cate Blanchett's "29 seconds? Matthew McConaghey got to talk about Neptune! I think I can have 5 extra seconds."
rita moreno's acceptance speech: that's all you need
I agree: It's boring when everything gets locked up like this. However, in the past two years there's been at least one category that didn't match up with Oscar. Meryl Streep beat Viola Davis and and Christoph Waltz beat Tommy Lee Jones, s hopefully an upset will happen somewhere, although I can't say who it will be. I think Cate is still not as big as a lock as people think. Adams could easily get some momentum in this month and a half long period, and don't count out the other nominees yet. I could even see Dench getting some heat I know, I know, it's a long sho), but Philomena did get a B.P nomination and Dench hasn't won in 15 years, that's 6 years more then it's been since Blanchett won in 05. Plus, such a great actress like Dench should have a Best Actress Oscar and given that you said she may be retiring, the Academy could get sentimental. But I doubt it. I really can't see Bullock winning again either. What are you guy's thoughts on Best Actress and my admittedly unlikely (but still possible!) theory?
I did even worse than Paul as I didn't vote for Burrell but match on everything else. I'm most disappointed that Hanks isn't getting more notice. (I did vote for Game of Thrones for stunt.)
There are problems with SAG and the awards, but there are problems with all the awards bodies so get over it. Our worst is, imho, the early nomination process. WOWS wasn't seen (last year it was ZD30 and Django, Chastain got in by the skin of her teeth). The second is the process of reviewing the films. I saw everything in theater, not everyone does or feels they can afford too. There were screener DVDs sent by some films (all the winners btw, this year and last...HELLO producers--clue phone, pick up!!), on line downloads made available for others (but after 3 hours, I still was only 1/3 the way into getting Gravity downloaded...I'm on a T-1... Nebraska wouldn't download at all..the itunes downloads worked better--stunts don't offer anything because they aren't televised). Banks didn't offer anything. TWC were the last screeners to arrive for those keeping score and stats. The TV studios never offer anything although this year two of the made for TV movies offered downloads. If you were trying to review before making a decision or seeing the work for the first time.......the results speak for themselves.
In a perfect world, the best perf would get the award, but this isn't a perfect world. The winners are the films that got their product in front of the voters in the easiest manner possible for the voters to view it, along with word of mouth. Remember, not everyone wants to be the lone voice of sanity in the madness, most people want to be able to say they voted for the winner.
I have issues with the nominations and if I had a say, it would be different....both the process and the results. But then I think almost everyone of us here would do it differently and few would do it the same way.
There is also a cultural aspect. The majority of voters are on the west coast, then the east coast. Membership is picking up in other areas, but its still a minority and believe me, the attitude towards the business/what you should like/vote for is very different depending on your location.
And don't fool yourselves into thinking this is only a SAG issue.
At the end of the day, its money. You spend the money or you lose.
anonny -- i am baffled that you think there's any leeway in supporting actor. at this point Leto & Blanchett are the lockiest of locks from the regional critics to the major critics to every award show, they're the winners. I'm fine with this when the performance is mammoth and can't be denied but those kinds of performances don't come along very often... at least in each category every year! ;)
The other two categories have wiggle room but not much of it. McConaughey is pretty much guaranteed too at this point... though i have to say again that I've been scratching my head all season that so many readers though Ejiofor was going to win. IMHO that was so never going to happen. For a while i worried he wouldn't even be nominated. He just doesn't have a high enough profile or a showy enough part (the greatness of the performance aside). The statue was always going to go to a major film star (McConaughey, Redford - but then he wasn't nominated - or DiCaprio) or the role of a lifetime narrative for Bruce Dern.But now it looks like it's locking up for McConaughey... because people love that movie a whole bunch more than I thought they did!
Henry - - agree with you that screeners are very very important. Even if you've already seen the movie you're more likely to think about it grow attached to it if it's right there for you and you feel like rewatching.
Great post, Henry.
- I think TWoWS was seen and very much enjoyed by the Nom. Comm (I saw it with them in LA), but it was probably just too late;
- I saw everything in the theater except Captain Phillips, but I doubt that a big screen viewing would have swayed my votes away from Ejiofor or Fassbender; the only motion picture nominee I didn't get to was Enough Said, because when I tried to watch the iTunes download a few days ago, I got an error message telling me my display (?!) didn't have the proper "protection";
- I watch a lot of TV, but most of it is episodic, so it would certainly would be helpful if movie/miniseries scrreners were made more available;
- I gave up on caring if I was voting for the winners years ago—I'd rather be pissed about my vote for Colin Firth in A Single Man not getting the job done;
- to me, it comes down to more than what got seen: I think these awards remain a popularity contest determined by celebrity, buzz, momentum, PR and, sadly, herd thinking;
- at least this year I could appreciate most of the motion picture nominees, so I'm not shaking my head in dismay at any of the winners; they're not all my favorites, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.
I just hope the SAG award for American Hustle doesn't mean it wins Best Picture at the Oscars. It will be an absolute shame if this overrated piece of fluff wins over the brilliant 12YAS or Gravity.
And is it possible Judi Dench does a Jessica Tandy? Remember Michelle Pfeiffer won ALL the critics awards and then Jessica got the 'your old and respected and it's time' Oscar over her.
The best part of McConaugh-a-gross' inevitable Oscar victory--it officially devalues the award. No one here should feel sorry for any actor, actress, any filmmaker for never either being nominated or winning the damn thing. I actually feel sorry for Streep and Hepburn for being so legendary in their Oscar legacies when the whole thing is farce.
Can we all just take a moment to admire Lupita's dress. WOW. And Jennifer Lawrence's dresses are really snooze-worthy. Only Marion Cotilard rocks Dior.
/3rtful -- will you cool it with the mcconaughhating? A lot of people (including myself) think he's very talented. I think he deserved the gold last year for Magic Mike. And while i understand people not liking dallas buyers club (I liked it but not strongly enough to not be able to see the criticisms) i cant really understand people thinking he's not good in it.
bette -- but there's no narrative for that this time. because Judi Dench is already an oscar winner. there's nothing to gain from giving her a second.
Any scenario where Cate doesn't win the Oscar is wishful thinking at this point. Maybe Amy Adams can go into campaign overdrive and having seen the film yesterday I have to say it's her best ever nominated performance and I won't be mad at her if she won and I am not a massive fan of her work in general
Still not convinced MM has the oscar. Ejiofer seems out but I think Leo has a strong chance. Wolf didn't really hit with any of the early awards but it did with Oscar so I think he definitly has a chance.
FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS, as of January 19th- 2014:
BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
I still don't think voters are going to give American Hustle their Best Picture award when it's clearly a underwhelming story helmed by a controversial director not a lot of people like, and he has criminal charges pending. For those that want to say "Well 12 Years a Slave didn't get that Cinematography nod"; neither did "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King", which had swept Cinematography precursors- it still won 11/11 on Oscar night.
Furthermore, 12 Years a Slave has Brad Pitt behind it, who will get major celebs including friends George Clooney and Julia Roberts to rally behind him. Never underestimate the powers of big Hollywood males.
There's also Gravity, which will win DGA and a slew of technical Oscars. Preferential voting might tip the scales to it's favor.
SAG Ensemble: American Hustle
Globe (Drama): 12 Years a Slave
Globe (Comedy): American Hustle
Broadcast Film Critics: 12 Years a Slave
New York Film Critics: American Hustle
National Society of Film Critics: Inside Llewyn Davis
Los Angeles Film Critics: Gravity & Her (Tie)
National Board of Review: Her
Producers Guild: TBA
Directors Guild: TBA
Writers Guild: TBA
Academy Award: TBA
BEST DIRECTOR:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
I am calling 2013 to be a split year. Gravity is such a director's film. Visionary, glorious and intimate. Upset could go to Alexander Payne or Steve McQueen. Russell is sitting this one out.
BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey gives a masterful performance, and has won the SAG, BFCA and Golden Globe. But one thing he doesn't have is that BAFTA nomination, something I predict DiCaprio is very strong for (against Ejiofor of course). Plus, DiCaprio won the Comedy Globe, and The Wolf of Wall Street got unexpected nods in Picture and Supporting Actor for Jonah Hill. Support lies with both films, but DiCaprio has a better backstory, and is owed in a sense. Will Matthew McConaughey fatigue settle in by the time Oscar polls close? I'm guessing DiCaprio is very much like Waltz was last year- no SAG nod, but Globe winner and BAFTA winner. And finally- Oscar winner.
BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
If Sandra Bullock was going to shake things up, SAG was her last chance. Even if Blanchett loses the BAFTA to tepid Amy Adams, she's going to win the Oscar. It's a deserving and meaty performance, and her critic sweep (NBR withstanding) on top of Globe, SAG and BFCA seem cemented for her. Her second win, and first in Lead. Can we now forgive Gwyneth Paltrow taking her crown back in 1998? Perhaps not still!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Leto seems more locked than Blanchett, mainly because his competition is weak. Michael Fassbender, who has not been campaigning, might win the BAFTA since Leto is not nominated. But it seems all too obvious that the voters will knight this performance, which truly is inspiring.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Now that this fresh and amazing talent has taken LAFCA, BFCA and SAG- we can pen her down for being the alternate (and correct) choice to Jennifer Lawrence's SNL Skit in American Hustle. Seriously, Ms. Lawrence is lucky to even be nominated- and thankfully, due to Bale and Adams also making it in- the acting nods for American Hustle come across as pure marketing scheme vs. actual merit. Lawrence can rest easily knowing she's only 23 and has a long career ahead of her. Lupita actually needs this to stay strong within her future projects. It's a worthy performance. Shout outs to Julia Roberts, June Squibb and Sally Hawkins- this is actually a rare time that all the performances deserve to be here, though I would drop Lawrence for Oprah in a second.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
12 Years a Slave
Hopefully this is an easy win; but watch out for Philomena taking those British votes.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Her
Spike Jonze is winning this. Just watch.
So the dream is over Mr. Dern. Well done anyway.
I share the love for Lupita. Will she get a career?
What next for Meryl!!! after her terrible ott performance in AOC,acted off that table by Nicholson,Cooper and Roberts,the table was a supporting player in that movie too.
"Coming to a theatre near you Meryl Streep as Meryl Streep!!!
If Amy Adams ends up taking Blanchett's Oscar, I'll be horrified at the Academy as I've never been before. And I mean it.
My fear is the Oscar 2003...
Adrien Brody is the only of the list without a Oscar, Nicolas Cage and Daniel Day-Lewis has 1 in Best Actor, Michael Caine 2 in support and Jack Nicholson 3.
And Oscar Goes To... surprise! Adrian Brody
This year Amy Adams could be repeat the same?????????
mark, obviously another nomination is next for Streep, next year!
Nathaniel, it wasn't just the readers who thought Ejiofor would win - he was head-to-head with Redford on GoldDerby in the frontrunner's position for most of the season. To be fair, unlike previous years, this was a tough year to call (no one was really picking McConaughey for a win until after the SAG nominations - DiCap, Hanks and Dern had more heat at various points in the cycle). I think a lot of people saw Ejiofor and equated him with Dujardin, but Dujardin had Harvey in his corner, had a bigger, more Oscar-friendly turn in a film that felt less like an ensemble piece, and seemed like a force of nature on the circuit.
people have such a problem dealing with difference of opinion. maybe the actors just liked matthew better? and the competition is not for giving a speech.
(I haven't seen the movie and don't even like the actor)
Suzanne- But Gold Derby's odds are hardly the arbiter of reasonable thinking. Right now, it has The Act of Killing as the most likely winner in Doc when anyone who regularly follows the Oscars should know that 'Killing' is precisely the type of film that Oscar normally rejects for something more traditional. You know, a doc that doesn't involve women dancing out of a fish. ;-)
I, for instance, have been certain of McConaughey's win for at least two weeks, and suspecting it for longer. Redford's campaign was dying, Hanks was never really in consideration for a win but instead only a nom, Ejiofor was more respected than getting industry types excited about him winning and, while it was possible that he could win, Dern has always seemed like such an out-of-the-box pick that it was hard imagining it. DiCaprio has come along to give me pause, but with McConaughey winning award after award (even if Leo wasn't nominated against him in the Globes and SAG), it will take a massive PR campaign by DiCaprio to get me to waver.
Just want to add the following:
- Blue Jasmine is a bigger boxoffice hit in the UK than it is in the US: box office to population ratio.
- BAFTA loves Woody Allen women. Streep, Keaton, Wiest all got nominations for Woody parts that were not recognized at the Oscars.
- BAFTA loves Cate Blanchett (2 wins);
- England loves Cate Blanchett, she was here with both Gross und Klein and Uncle Vanya and everyone I know, from acting teachers to actors, can't shut up about her performances. A teacher of mine who is a casting director said the following after seeing Blue Jasmine: "Quite extraordinary!", right then an 18-year-old jock in class who is more interested in playing Marlon Brando than an actual character in a play said that he doesn't like Cate Blanchett and she quickly shut him up with "It's all about the performance! Not about whether you like her or not!"
- Basically, the English vote is better aware of the rare fact (than the Academy members) that she's both a star and an extraordinary theatre actress.
In the worst case scenario AKA Cate not winning the BAFTA, it'll be Dench or Thompson, but not Adams. But Dench or Thompson winning the BAFTA won't really change Cate's Oscar chances.
The only other time that a SAG + Globe Actress winner lost the Oscar was Julie Christie in 2007. But Amy Adams in American Hustle is not Marion Cotillard in La Vien Rose ;)
The only awards Adams has won (2 in number) were in categories where she was not competing against Cate.
To sum it all up, if SAG loved American Hustle so much as to give it the Best Ensemble award, where is Adams' best actress nomination?
Cheers
@ Nathaniel - I think my problems with Dallas Buyers Club are tied to my problems with Matthew McC's performance in it, so I'll go on the record as saying that I don't think he's great in it. I had issues with his character - mainly that I wasn't very interested in Ron Woodroof - and I think they might have disappeared with a stronger actor in the part. I don't know if that's fair, but I definitely didn't feel like I was getting much from McConaughey. I left the movie in love with Leto's performance, and a lot of that comes from my gratitude whenever he was onscreen, because it gave me someone interesting to watch.
It will be strange if it shakes down to McConaughey vs. DiCaprio like it's starting to seem. I'll be rooting for Leo harder than I ever thought possible. It will be like when I rooted for Meryl in J&J to beat Bullock and her awards-narrative-I-couldn't-comprehend, once it was clear that my favorites in the category (Mulligan/Sidibe and Dern/Ejiofor) had no chance.
It's occurring to me now as I keep reading all these comments - who are the locks, sometimes Oscar surprises rewarding an actor out of nowhere, Oscar wants to reward American Hustle but if it can't get Picture (12 Years! fingers crossed) and Blanchett has Actress locked up, Bale isn't really in the running, and Lawrence JUST won, etc. - maybe Supporting Actor will be the surprise and it will actually go to Cooper? He seems more of an industry insider as opposed to Leto, who keeps reminding us that he took 6 years off from movies to make music, while Cooper has been working hard and steadily for over a decade, already has a well-respected Oscar-nominated performance behind him and has the heat of AH's buzz. Plus, if they do go for McConaughey in Actor, maybe they'll feel that's enough for DBC and want to give AH a big prize that it can't get anywhere else.
Just a theory. Not saying it's definitely happening but just wondering (also wouldn't mind if it DID happen, since while I think Leto is good, I don't get the widespread raves).
Yeah, I don't know that McConaughey's performance is universally respected. I disliked Dallas Buyers Club but I also thought McConaughey was dull in the role, and it's easy for me to imagine others considered for the part (Pitt, etc.) putting an interesting twist on it. Meanwhile, there have been other Best Actor-winning films that I've disliked - The King's Speech, for instance - but I've liked the lead actor's performance and thought the accolades were deserved.
Maybe part of the problem is that I just don't care for McConaughey, but it's interesting that hi performance, somewhat uniquely among recent Best Actor winners/frontrunners, was a major critics' awards winner - he failed to win any of the Big 3 critics' awards, and he didn't dominate the regional circuit the way Ejiofor did.
I think these awards are at least partially for the "McConaissance," and that strikes me as a bit ridiculous. I am not a fan of Leo at all, to say the least, but really - they're going to give McConaughey an Oscar that celebrates his supposedly amazing 2-year revival when you have DiCaprio competing against him and Oscar-less after 25 years of solid work? Leo never had to revive his career because he never descended into Kate Hudson rom com ridiculousness.
No.
I am still unsure about the Best Actor race. Leo vs. McConaughey has yet to actually happen and it won't happen until Oscar night. Still plenty of time for Leo to dominate the narrative.
Leto and McConaughey's speeches are insufferable but I don't think if one were to lose it will be because people are turned off by that, even if Cate Blanchett's shade was pointedly hilarious.
PGA/DGA/WGA are where it really makes the race either an unknown on Oscar night or a long-wait for Hustle taking picture but I would still say up in the air for other categories. I would be shocked if it won editing and while Lawrence and Screenplay are possibilities, I still think there is a spread the wealth sentiment still felt.
While SAG only gave Hustle 2 nods and just an ensemble win, let's remember that it and Wolf were the last movies available and I believe only had screenings but not screeners.
Even though there is no DBC to make it more of a challenge, 12 Years a Slave needs to dominate BAFTAs. That's the one precursor where it got that everybody in Hustle would be nominated in the 4 acting categories, so clearly this is the group of the AMPAS side who loved the film. But I think McQueen and Cuaron's ties to the UK also help them but I think Cuaron is still the director front-runner. Chiwetel and McQueen need a consolation prize to be something of a factor. I still think Lupita and Ridley are most poised to win for them.
DJDeeJay- If American Hustle doesn't win one or more of the following-- Picture, Supporting Actress, or Original Screenplay-- I'd be shocked. There are far more options for a major win than going for Cooper in Supporting Actor.
Given how rich the Actor category is, it'd be a shame if it truly came out to be so clear-cut. My vote goes to Dern, but it doesn't look like even vote-splitting will lift him now. It's McC, DiC, or Ejiofor.
I'm going to agree with CMG about the spread the wealth sentiment. And this year its easy to spread the wealth with so many films/performances considered worthy.
Yeah, I don't think McConaughey has this one in the bag quite yet. Leonardo DiCaprio gave a very committed performance that is one of his best (really any problem with the performance has to be with the movie itself because he was doing exactly what that movie needed him to do and more). I think Leo pretty much destroys any sentiment MM may get for a long successful career worthy of a body of work type win since he also hasn't received an Oscar yet and has arguably had a better career where its more surprising he still doesn't have an Oscar.
That said I do think Lupita has cemented herself as the front runner for two reasons. First, Oscar voters might not want to reward J. Law again. Second, I think a lot of people who will vote for American Hustle for Best Picture will still vote for Lupita as a way to still give 12 Years a Slave a big award.