BAFTA Preview: Who might surprise Friday?
Wednesday, January 6, 2016 at 3:17PM
Here's Murtada with many questions about this year's possible BAFTA nominations.
The first indication that the BAFTA nominations are upon us - besides Awards announcements every two seconds - is the nominations for the Rising Star Award. This year’s crop include two 2015 British breakthroughs in Bel Powley (Diary of A Teenage Girl) and Taron Egerton (Kingsman), two stars of major blockbusters in John Boyega (Star Wars:The Force Awakens) and Dakota Johnson (50 Shades of Grey) and one Oscar front runner in Brie Larson (Room). Their usual eclectic mix for this voted by the public award. Vote now if you are a UK resident.
But more importantly let's look at what Friday morning may bring by examining some trends from the last few years of BAFTA and what they could mean after the jump......
The Brits are coming!
Of course there are always a few British nominees that appear at BAFTA and BAFTA only. Whether from a best picture nominee (Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel) or just a really well loved Brit (Imelda Staunton in Pride).
Brits who may appear this year include Ian Mckellen for Mr Holmes and Julie Walters for Brooklyn. Sicario just nabbed a PGA nomination and Emily Blunt is a 2 time nominee so is 3 the charm? Doubtful. However watch out for Carey Mulligan since Suffragette was a substantial hit in the UK. Might Powley be a double nominee? Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) is not yet a Dame so who knows. She might only get nominated for the big one next Thursday. Dame Maggie Smith though could get one of the slots in best actress for The Lady in the Van.
Late UK Releases
BAFTA mostly ignored American Sniper and Dallas Buyers Club because of their late releases in the UK. That doesn’t always happen though. Julianne Moore won last year before Still Alice made it to UK cinemas.
The Big Short seems very strong and will get nominations across the board. Room won the British Independent International Award film over Carol and Son of Saul. It definitely has a high profile in UK so Brie Larson is safe, but beyond that we will have to see.
Creed will be released next week in so we will have to do with it missing another best picture lineup. Can Helen Mirren pull Trumbo through despite its February release? So many questions.
Anomalies
Do you remember that last year Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) was nominated for best director? No. How about Rene Russo (Nightcrawler) for supporting actress? Who will BAFTA fall in love with out of nowhere this year.
John Crawley for direction and Emory Cohen for supporting actor could join surefire nominee Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn. Jamie Bell (Billy Elliot) famously got in for best actor despite his young age. Could it happen for Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation)? He’s not British but very popular Brit co-star Idris Elba could pull him along if they want a pair. Also watch out for Macbeth, it was released in October and led the BIFAs, although it didn’t win a single award. A best supporting actress nod for Marion Cotillard or a costume nomination for Jacqueline Durran will not be huge surprises.
Category Placement
Everyone is bored with the Rooney Mara / Alicia Vikander category placement conversation but an indication for which category they might appear in will be BAFTA. Or not. Last year they nominated Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) in supporting and he was in lead for all other awards including Oscar. BAFTA marches to their own drum. Go ahead guess on some category surprises we might see.
Who do you think will be happy on BAFTA morning? Who will be the late surging contender appearing first at BAFTA before Oscar's coveted shortlist announcements?
Reader Comments (28)
I'll be interested to see if The Lobster snags an acting or screenplay nomination. Maybe Colman, Whishaw or Farrell. Colman also had London Road. I wonder if Tom Hardy will get lead or supporting nominations as well. Maybe supporting for Revenant and then show up again at Oscar?
I'd like to think Mr. Holmes will fare well with BAFTA. Actor is so fluid now beyond Leo that I feel confident that McKellen will get a nomination.
Ian McKellen of course. I think it would be great if both he AND Tom Courtenay (45 Years) would be nominated and get rid of the idea that one, and only one elderly actor can be nominated per year.
How about Michael Sheen and/or Matthias Schoenaerts for Far from the Madding Crowd? The film should not be forgotten.
Maybe Jessica Chastain for Crimson Peak?
Julie Walters would be on my Supporting Actress list. I'd be delighted if she got some recognition, somewhere, and BAFTA is probably her one hope unless Brooklyn is an unlikely hit with the Academy.
Preach ken s. This was a great year for actors and actresses over 50, and awards bodies have not taken notice beyond Helen Mirren and oddly, Sylvester Stallone. Even everybody's favorite elder statesman of the moment, Michael Keaton, has been largely ignored. When it happens, the biggest travesty on nomination morning will be Lily Tomlin's snub for Best Actress.
I'm with Suzanne, Julie Walters is so on my list and this feels like the best place for her to make an appearance. Same goes for Emory Cohen. All of Brooklyn, really.
Kristen Stewart also feels really likely to show up here too, for some reason, and I wanna say Mara and Vikander will show up in lead if they show up at all. For once, The Reader gives me hope.
I also really want to endorse the possibility of a Star Wars acting nomination in Supporting Actor. This category seems to be really kind to genre performances that kinda don't go anywhere when it wants to be (Robbie Coltrane in Harry Potter, John Hurt in Alien, Eddie Murphy in Shrek, Javier Bardem in Skyfall, Francois Truffaut in Close Encounters, Jack Nicholson's Joker) and that movie has plenty of worthy candidates. John Boyega and Harrison Ford feel like they could really show up if BAFTA takes a shine to Star Wars.
I think Julie Walters seems like a good bet, as does Carey Mulligan for Suffragette (even though I think she did finer work in Far From The Madding Crowd). Although, I remember from last year I saw somebody proudly posting about which screeners they watched and which they hadn't, and some real gems like Under The Skin just seem to go unwatched.
On a sidenote, Creed is actually released here on 15th January. As ever, the UK gets an absurd glut of big films all arriving within weeks of one another. The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, Room, Spotlight, Creed and The Danish Girl are all released within the same three-week window, which seems absurd to me.
Ben - thanks for correction re Creed release date. I've updated.
The UK January/February glut of absurdity is, I suppose, reflective of the US bi-coastal December glut. Last year was particularly heinous in that UK cinemagoers had to wait until 6 March to see the best leading actress performance of releases from the "previous" year.
As for Best Actress, like everyone, I expect Larson and Ronan to be in. I say they go for Vikander as lead, with Blanchett and Smith rounding out the category, with Mara nommed in support for Machina. My surprise alternate pick would be Binoche for Sils Maria.
Correction; I meant Mara as lead and Vikander for Machina, obviously!
Outside of that strange Steve Carell placement last year, BAFTA is pretty good about setting things right with category placement (Winslet, Steinfeld, Bejo are recent examples), so I think if nominated, Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara will be nominated in Lead.
I'd bet on Mckellen getting in. Would't be surprise to see quite a few noms for The Lobster too, very possibly in script, best British film, actor for Colin Farrell and sup actress for Olivia Colman. Ex Machina is also very likely in those categories (save actor).
You know what? I'm gonna go ahead and predict a surprise nomination for Charlise Theron.
I did not realize what a smug, punchable face Taron Egerton has. Interesting new development. Him and that Jack O'Connell kid can trade spots and I wouldn't even notice. Blah.
I've learned a long time ago never to place your hopes and wishes into the BAFTAs (thanks, Nate!) so anything that comes out of these nominations will be clean slate for me. For as cool as their Outstanding Debut by British Writer/Director/Producer category can be (Pride won last year!) they can have completely asinine snubs and nominations (and subsequently, wins) in the most random of places.
Basically, I don't trust them bitches.
You just watch Helen Mirren score double nods. Again.
@ Nick T: If they like Star Wars, isn't Adam Driver the likeliest nominee, since he was best in show?
I'm so depressed by the PGA snub I think one of the Carol ladies might miss on a BAFTA nomination. The movie was developed in England by Film Four, hope that counts for something.
summer: Carol is "officially" a UK-USA co-production.
@ Paul Outlaw - Possibly! I kind of think John Boyega has better odds due to him being English and being seen as more of a breakout actor in the film than Driver, while Harrison Ford has that kind of "honoring a vet playing a character we love" vibe that Sylvester Stallone is currently cultivating and that Alan Rickman got for Snape, even though that never materialized.
Driver's character is also thoroughly unlikable in a way that doesn't exist around anyone else, although him playing SUCH a horrible villain might help? He's dynamite in a really nasty role that's still reaping a lot of sympathy, which I give him all the credit for, but do they go for those inferiorty complex parts a lot? He doesn't have that kind of career turn that's part of Boyega and Ford's narratives which might be clouded by playing a part people love to hate, even with the sympathetic meta around him.
If he gets any recognition at all I'll be happy because he really does deliver in a tricky part, but it doesn't seem as likely as his castmates getting noticed, who I will also be happy to see get recognized for their great work in the movie.
I am expecting Helena Bonham Carter in 'Suffragette' to pull off a Miranda Richardson in 'Made in Dagenham' style nomination.
Won't bother predicting BAFTA nominations this year. Like the Golden Globes they haven't published their list of eligible films on their website this year.
Poor form in my opinion.
Charlotte!!!
My 2-cents:
Best Actress:
Saoirse Ronan
Charlotte Rampling
Brie Larson
Alicia Vikander (Danish Girl) &
one o the Carol ladies (I cant choose...its a Sophie's choice!!!)
Supp Actress:
Kate Winslet
Julie Walters
Alicia Vikander (Ex-Machina)
Helen Mirren
Helena Bonham-Carter
Best Actor:
Fassbender
DiCaprio
McKellen
Redmayne
Hardy (Legend)
Supp Actor:
Rylance
Elba
Hardy (Revenant)
Stallone
Cohen
Let's not forget Michael Caine, who could land here for Youth.
The lineup for best foreign film should be interesting as many of the frontrunners have not been released in the UK and will not be by the eligibility cutoff. Expect a lot of people to be reading the rulebook when major films are left off...
John, I hope Caine gets in. I think he deserves the Oscar. He's brilliant in this film.
Domhnall Gleeson for Best Actor in Ex Machina and Domhnall Gleeson for Best Supporting Actor in Brooklyn.
Oscar Isaac for Supporting Actor Ex Machina
Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress in Ex Machina
Rooney Mara for Best Actress.
Elizabeth Banks getting a nomination would be swell.
Since category freud (especially as it relates to Vikander) has been a hot topic this season, how is it that people will accept her as supporting in Ex Machina when they won't in The Danish Girl? Ex Machina (just watched) is a three-hander with three leads from where I'm sitting. Take any one of them out of the story and there is no story.