Monday
Feb252019
How'd you do on your predictions?
Monday, February 25, 2019 at 1:51AM ✅ ❌ A quick note on predictions before we lay down to sleep for a few hours before all the post-mortem Oscar discussions / work. I went 17/24 as you can see on the official chart index which has been updated with all the winners. But frankly I was hoping to do a lot worse since some of my predictions were fear based like: hmmm, this terrible thing might happen, let's predict it. While I did predict every single Best Picture nominee taking home at least one prize (which is noteworthy becasue it's not common and it DID happen for the first time since 2014) I unfortunately didn't predict which Oscar correctly in some of the cases.
How'd you do?
Reader Comments (26)
I'm proud of my predicting Green Book in BP back in October! Overall I got 14 right! And an interesting note, I predicted BoRhap wasn't getting anything (I thought there was no way in hell they were giving a movie made by a pedo any Oscars in the current cultural climate).
16/24, which was enough to win my Oscar pool. I'm particularly proud I got Best Visual Effects right.
17/24 for me, too. And I was almost always glad when I was wrong. It ended up being less predictable as feared.
I got 16/24. Like almost EVERYONE else , I didn't predict Olivia Colman and I didn't think Bohemian Rhapsody would be the big winner of the night - 4 Oscars - the most of any film.
And I actually predicted Black Panther would win nothing. It won 3 which I thought would go to The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk.
I did get 2 out of the 3 shorts correct. I originally predicted Period but changed my mind at the last minute. Damn.
Oh and I did get Visual Effects correct.
I had Green Book winning Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay and changed it for Roma for the big one at the very last minute.
I need you Glenn Close post to heal.
I was very pleased for Olivia after all she is from my home country and she should have had it in 2011 but poor Glenn.
Take heart Glenn Christopher Plummer got his 3 noms and won in his 80's.
I got only 13/24, which is very bad for me, I usually do way better (in fact in 2014 I actually got a perfect score). It was a hard year!
Seems to be a trend...I also got 16 out of 24. Overall (with the exception of Coleman) I am depressed over this ......????
The comfort comes in knowing that next year will easily be great after this debacle. YUK!
Colman can easily triple crown.
Will be annoyed when they avoid Close for an honorary coronation this year.
I also went 17/24 in my Oscar pool. I went for Roma in best picture (wishful thinking, perhaps), Glenn Close, Vice for editing (on the theory that Oscar loves MOST editing), A Quiet Place in sound editing (MOST conspicuous editing), The Favourite for script and production design (it did have 10 noms after all) and Avengers for visual effects (it was a pleasant surprise that First Man won).
the Close snub hurts, can't hide that
but I clearly remember saying that Colman was somehow emerging as a front-runner before the Globes, before even watching The Favourite:
- A Star Is Born was already being commercially eclipsed by Bohemian Rhapsody and Gaga was way too new for the actors
- The Wife was never realistically going to get more than 1 Oscar nomination, performed very modestly at the box office, Close was not winning any critics awards
- while The Favourite was emerging as one of the front-runners and literally everyone was talking about it
It's weird, I'm almost angry that Close didn't win but I re-watched The Favourite last week and really think Coleman gives the best performance in the movie, very strong choices, great line delivery, a broken queen, who's nevertheless very aware of her power until the very end.
It's almost like the Queen knows Abigail has dug up tremendous dirt to get where she is, and the Queen won't let her win this movie, forces her hand and all of her weight on Abigail's head for balance. End of story. Brilliant!
still on cloud nine for colman, my best friend!
i did so horribly on predictions i can't even post the number. one year (the 12 years / DBC / blue jasmine year) i got 22 / 24, and i will still brag about that years later!
thank you, nathaniel and team, for another marvelous year of coverage.
All of the Best Actor reactions to Malek winning no doubt sums up most TFE readers feelings.
Honestly, just for the reactions of people who put so much emphasis on 'awarding careers' and 'paying dues' for what is literally an award that should be single performances from one specific year judged against each other, the Colman win is extra sweet.
The year started out Glenn vs. Gaga. It ended Glenn vs. Olivia.
It should've been Glenn vs. Melissa all along.
I loved this category and have nothing against Colman. I just think McCarthy gave the performance of a lifetime and I'm sad she went the entire season emptyhanded.
@Hayden- McCarthy was brilliant and my third favorite female performance this year after Sakaru Ando in Shoplifters, and Colman. Love when those with serious comedic chops can also nail drama. Not usually the other way around. Any of the five would have been fine with me, but I'm over the moon for Olivia Colman.
@Hayden
McCarthy has plenty of time to become an Oscar winner. They like her but at the moment there's no urgency there.
16/24 I seem to get get this every year. Congrats to you 17ers!
17/24.
Obviously, the Glenn shocker cost most of us. But I also didn't foresee the "Green Book" for screenplay win (I like the movie, but that screenplay over something like "The Favourite" is embarrassing). I also went out on the limb for a sound split between "First Man" (editing) and BoRhap (mixing). That didn't happen.
I also bought into the "Roma" hype, when my better judgement told me to go with "Green Book" for BP all along (because of that PGA win). Oh, well.
I would have liked to have seen "Beale Street" or "BlackKklansman" win for score (and took a chance on the latter winning), because much as I liked "Black Panther", that score was the least memorable of the three (and certainly the weakest win of the below the line categories).
Called visual effects! Did a last minute switch to "Period. End of Sentence" and it paid off!
I went 16/24 I missed Coleman like everyone else. It sucks that Close still doesn’t have an Oscar, but I’m fine with Coleman winning since I think she was the best performance and maybe they’re finally done with career oscar bullshit. Reward people when they deserve it not when they’re old for a performance that’s not their best. Someone had to break the cycle or you’ll keep having actors lose for the best performances to some old overdue actor and then have to wait twenty years for their turn to screw over a better performance and win their career oscar. Some older actor was going to have to get screwed for this practice to end and it’s unfortunate that it’s close but I’m fine with that if it means ending this
18 out of 24. I missed Picture, Actress, Score, Visual Effects, Most Editing, and Documentary.
I went with RBG for the #MeToo crowd., and also had Glenn winning. Bring on Sunset Boulevard!
McCarthy's time is coming. The Bridesmaids nod was a surprise, and they could have snubbed her this year. She's well-liked and one of the few real movie stars of her generation.
I didn't do predictions, but I'm proud that I never wavered from my belief that Roma couldn't win Best Picture. I just believed a Netflix black-and-white foreign language film with mostly nonprofessional actors would rank low on many ballots. They would go with the conventional choice.
I was 15/24 in the Will Win sweepstakes (I could have been 17/24 if I hadn't predicted upsets in the Supporting categories)
But what was appalling is I was 2/24 for Should Win (Production Design and Documentary Short). No shit. It wasn't a good night.
Michael -- but there's no way -- not even a .000000001 percent chance that that was the end of "career awards". That's not what human nature is like. They just dont like Glenn that much is all. It's sad because she's such a fine actor.
19/24 !!! I missed Picture, Actress, Orig. Screenplay, Score and Live Action Short.
In retrospect, I should have seen GREEN BOOK coming. The Academy has never given Best Picture a foreign language film, a superhero film, a Spike Lee film, a version of A STAR IS BORN...Once you start whittling it down, you realize that GREEN BOOK has the most tradition behind it: a mainstream, uncomplicatedly liberal version of taking on racism in America through the eyes of a white person who has to learn their lessons. (Even TWELVE YEARS A SLAVE had a white savior, played by Brad Pitt, to give white Academy voters something to hold onto.) I was distracted by the anti-Green Book chatter on Twitter, which it turns out is a lot less predictive than the history of the way the Academy actually votes.
18/24.
Underestimated Black Panther in the techs, and, yes, Green Book.
Even worse, I 'agreed' with the winner on only 1 of the 17 categories where I had seen all the nominees. ONE (VFX).