PGA nominates the usual suspects plus "Wakanda Forever" and "The Whale"
Friday, January 13, 2023 at 7:53AM by Nathaniel R
The Producers Guild of America has announced their nominations for 2022 entertainment. Their 34th annual awards will be held on Febuary 25th at the Beverly Hilton Hotel. Nominations and comments and some things to consider while making Oscar predictions are after the jump...
Theatrical Motion Pictures
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
- “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
- “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
- “Glass Onion” (Netflix)
- “TÁR” (Focus Features)
- “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Whale” (A24)
The PGA has long leaned a bit more mainstream success focused than other awards bodies (hint: Producing involves lots of financial considerations) though sometimes they break character. So, even though they'll nominate critically acclaimed underperformers like The Fabelmans and TÁR they also care about financial success stories. They made room for blockbuster Black Panther Wakanda Forever but note that they also honored The Whale which has been overperforming thus far in theaters, unlike its platform 'indie' peers with awards dreams.
In short we'll have to move both of those titles up when we update the Best Picture chart this week.
Some things to consider for your Oscar predictions...
Generally speaking one, two or three (max) of the PGA nominees fail to secure an Oscar nomination for Best Picture at the Oscars. The trick is guessing which ones are most vulnerable and what they'll be replaced with.
In regards to Glass Onion, the PGA also nominated its predecessor Knives Out but it did not land an Oscar nod. Will the second Knives Out film change its Oscar story?
In regards to Black Panther Wakanda Forever, the PGA is a lot more franchise friendly than Oscar is. Oscar voters have historically turned their nose up at sequels (unless the previous one won Best Picture) apart from the craft categories. But given that a much larger percentage of movies are now franchise-driven or franchise-adjacent or franchise-launching, Oscar voters will likely start making more room for them (it's a numbers game after all in terms of what's eligible vs what gets nominated).
Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
- “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix)
- “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)
- “Minions: The Rise of Gru” (Illumination)
- “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks Animation)
- “Turning Red” (Pixar)
We're not entirely convinced that Marcel is going to score with Oscar's animation branch (despite internet fervor for the film) but the least likely to repeat at the Oscars from this batch does feel like Minions: The Rise of Gru. It's also worth noting that the PGA always ignores international animated feature but Oscar generally includes one.
Episodic Television – Drama
- “Andor” (Disney+)
- “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
- “Ozark” (Netflix)
- “Severance” (Apple TV+)
- “The White Lotus” (HBO)
- Episodic Television – Comedy
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- “Barry” (HBO)
- “The Bear” (FX)
- “Hacks” (HBO Max)
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Limited or Anthology Series Television
- “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
- “The Dropout” (Hulu)
- “Inventing Anna” (Netflix)
- “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
- “Pam & Tommy” (Hulu)
White Lotus is an anthology to some awards shows -- but not here! They placed it in drama.
Televised or Streamed Motion Pictures
- “Fire Island” (Hulu)
- “Hocus Pocus 2” (Disney+)
- “Pinocchio” (Disney+)
- “Prey” (Hulu)
- “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
Isn't it interesting that Netflix titles always get slotted in theatrical (usually due to four-walling theaters for a qualifying run) but other streaming pictures are relegated to being considered "for television". The lines are so blurred now that it feels completely arbitrary! Fire Island and Good Luck To You Leo Grande had the same exact path (Searchlight but only streaming via Hulu but one is considered TV and the other Oscar eligible).
Non-Fiction Television
- “30 for 30” (ESPN)
- “60 Minutes” (CBS)
- “George Carlin’s American Dream” (HBO)
- “Lucy and Desi” (Amazon Prime Video)
- “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy” (CNN)
Live Entertainment, Variety, Sketch, Standup & Talk Television
- “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” (Comedy Central)
- “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
- “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
- “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
- “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Game & Competition Television
- “The Amazing Race” (CBS)
- “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” (Amazon Prime Video)
- “RuPaul’s Drag Race All Stars” (VH1)
- “Top Chef” (Bravo)
- “The Voice” (NBC)
Reader Comments (11)
I am doubtful about Glass Onion's BP chances. It's such an actor-dependent film that I think the film or Monae would have shown up at SAG if it were going to be nominated for BP. (It's worth noting that Knives Out wasn't nominated at SAG in 2019 either.) I could see it being replaced with Women Talking or Babylon.
Wakanda Forever might very well get a BP nom, since it probably has a lot of support from crafts voters, and Bassett is breaking through with actors. And the first Black Panther did very well with the Academy.
Movies -- The Hateful Ten.
TV -- White Lotus is not a drama and The Bear is not a comedy.
Great to read two very differing opinions,you did agree on Dolly which was good,though she's part of my main problem with the ending,does someone really lose all the humanity they have because of power.
I can see something like The Whale over performing on nomination day a la Phantom Thread,i'm sure Academy members don't listen to internet dissent on a particular movie.
It's like Blonde either you passionately hate it or you passionately love it and passion votes matter.
Those people who love Ana in Blonde will put her No 1 no matter what the general consensus is,if they like their Jelly Babies they are keeping them.
My two cents:
Glass Onion is Knives Out - three Golden Globes nominations, no SAG, PGA for Best Picture and ultimately destined for one Oscar nod - Screenplay.
I agree with Nathaniel that people have been underestimating The Whale. It was dismissed before being released but now it's peaking at the right time. Critics may not like it but audiences do. It could get up to 5 nominations (Acting, Pic, Screenplay, Makeup) and Fraser can still win.
Woman Talking to me is like Little Women. Late release, weird precursor attention (including key SAG omissions and underperforming at GG) but Oscar seems to be the place where it will be more embraced. It's still the Adapted Screenplay frontrunner and I wouldn't be surprised if Buckley and Wishaw (and maybe even Polley in Director) end up getting nominated.
Wakanda Forever won't happen for Best Picture. It's the classic PGA blockbuster nod.
Good news for THE WHALE. Entirely possible that Fraser wins the SAG and if he does the Speech Bump is going to be real. Exciting to have a 3-man race on our hands!
Really loving that so much still seems up in the air at this point with 3/4 acting races still looking incredibly competitive at this point.
I think The Whale gets the biggest boost from making the PGA list. Coupled with Hong Chau's SAG nomination, it seems to be gaining momentum at just the right time, and the fact that it's actually doing pretty well at the box office will surely help. I'm bumping it up into my predicted 10 for the first time, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up with 5 or 6 nominations at this point.
The way I see the race as of right now ranked by how likely I think they are to be nominated (which of course is not necessarily the same thing as likeliest to win):
LOCKS:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
PROBABLY IN BUT NOT QUITE LOCKS:
5. Tár
6. Elvis
IN THE MIX BUT FIGHTING FOR A SPOT:
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Women Talking
10. The Whale
11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
12. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
DARK HORSES:
13. Triangle of Sadness
14. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
15. Aftersun
16. Living
what Edwin said
@Edwin I think that's exactly where Best Picture is currently at. Women Talking and The Whale are most vulnerable. Babylon is out.
And I really don't think Glass Onion is getting nominated - especially after being shutout by SAG. The PGA have always been more receptive to comedy and blockbusters.
Babylon crashed and burned, it's only up for 4-5 below the line nominations.
Who would have thought both Chazelle and Russell would fail that big...
I've been saddened by the underperformance of THE WOMAN KING throughout this awards season. And I don't get it!
It stars Viola Davis. The movie has 94% on Rotten Tomatoes (with 99% Audience Score). And regarding the PGA, this movie actually has made MORE money than the following films combined so far: Babylon, The Fabelmans, The Whale, Banshees of Inisherin, Till, TAR, Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking.
I really wanted to like and care about The Woman King but I just didn't really enjoy it. I actually paid good money to watch it in a movie theatre, unlike many of my uber loud feminist friends (talk about NOT putting your money where your mouth is).
At the end of the day, that's just another warrior movie but with women instead of men. Which begs the logical question: if you're not into warrior movies in general, why would you be into a warrior movie with women?
Viola Davis is once again her super earnest heavyweight sobby self, but with fighting scenes. Once more cementing herself as an actress with a rather limited range.