Tuesday
Mar142023
Which one of this season's Oscar nominees will return soonest?
Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 11:00PM by Nathaniel R
We just recorded the Oscar post-mortem podcast and we ended by asking the participants which of the 20 acting nominees from the 95th Academy Awards would be back shortly. Everyone picked someone different. This Oscar season was record-breaking in terms of first-time nominees for acting -- 16 of 20 is insane (and wonderful)! We can't expect it will happen again at the 96th Oscars since it's so unusual. So which one of the nominees Hollywood just celebrated will be back next season... or the season after that if none of them repeat in a year's time. Who comes back first? Would love to hear your theories on this in the comments!
tagged Oscars (22), Oscars (23), polls
Oscars (22), Oscars (23), polls
Reader Comments (29)
It’ll be Barry Keoghan for Saltburn - you heard it here first!
Blanchett will get another nomination and win in the next five years and Michelle Williams will be back.
The Mescal mania is real here - he’s still too young to be a perennial.
I went with the safe choice with Cate Blanchett because of her track record. She will make a run for Meryl Streep’s record nominations. Unfortunately, I doubt Quan will get another shot at Oscar for the same reason why he had to leave the industry for a while. He’ll work steadily but most likely in comedies which don’t often get Oscar nominations. Hong Chau, though, will likely overcome this stinginess with her track record of memorable performances in indie films.
With a juicy role, I honestly can see Angela Bassett returning soon.
I hope Michelle Williams and Hong Chau are back next Oscars for their roles in Kelly Reichardt's SHOWING UP.
If not them, I'm going with Paul Mescal. He's an awards magnet! For his first lead role ever, he nets an Emmy nod and a BAFTA win. Follows that up a couple years later with his first Oscar nom, another BAFTA nod and, oh yeah, he also dabbles in theater as he recently got an Olivier nom as well. Even without all of that, his upcoming projects look promising. He plays gay in not one but TWO movies--one directed by 45 YEARS Andrew Haigh (releasing this fall!) and the other seemingly set during WWI. Then there's the GLADIATOR sequel out next year.
If Michelle Williams gets Fever, her bio pic of Peggy Lee, onto screens, she should be a strong contender.
Blanchett
Mescal
Condon
Keoghan
Cate Blanchett is an obvious pick but I went with Hong Chau as she's just fucking good.
I really hope it’s Hong Chau. I’ve loved everything she’s done so far and was so happy to see her get some recognition and awards exposure this season!
Chau, Keoghan, and Mescal all seem good bets to return in the near future.
Cate is the safe choice, but I do think Colin Farrell is entering the phase of his career where he may become a perennial nominee, and I also think Angela Bassett may have “overdue” momentum after coming close to winning this year (for a role in a Marvel movie, no less), so I could see either of them returning soon as well.
And actually, I know nothing about the role, but if Brendan Fraser gets to shine in the new Scorsese movie this year, I could definitely see him getting an afterglow nomination.
Statistically I think the right answer is Michelle Williams, who has been receiving them with about the same frequency as Blanchett but is clearly "overdue" to win one which helps on the margin.
But overall I'd expect Blanchett, Williams, Farrell, Mescal, Chau, Henry, Butler, de Armas, and Keoghan all to have good shots at coming back given where they are in their careers and the types of roles they tend to have. I also think Bassett will be clearly in the conversation as "overdue" alongside Glenn Close, Amy Adams, Williams, in a way that she wasn't before this season, which will help if she finds the right role.
Would love to see Condon, Nighy, or Hsu come back but not sure how likely they are. Feels like Riseborough may get a backlash in the future.
Now that Fraser, Yeoh, Quan, and Curtis "got theirs" I don't know that they are obvious candidates to get nominated again, strange as that seems. They are all in the back half of their careers and had stars align uniquely this year. Curtis certainly is an industry fave so could see her pick up a few more noms, but I doubt the others will return.
I remember you asking this interesting questions many years ago and, although Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver didn't win their respective polls, they came back unexpectedly soon after their first nods. That's what leads me to believe that Hong Chau will return. She's the kind of character actress who is always just so good and people already took notice. I can even see her winning.
And sadly I think we're used to dismiss Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu and Michelle Yeoh for what we know are the opportunities given to asian actors, but Hollywood is changing. It would be amazing if they only got better roles after this experience and it wasn't just tokenism.
I have a feeling Andrea Riseborough will be back but in Supporting.
Totally agree with @Juan Carlos Ojano. I didn't vote for her here, but there's definitely going to be a lot more attention/scrutiny on Riseborough now. I expect that may play out in an effort to retroactively legitimize the push she got this year.
To me this is always a question about who is getting roles in the right projects. Andrea Riseborough has a role in a Kate Winslet film and Hong Chau has a role in a Yorgos film. I think it’s easy to see them returning for both.
I think Cate will win soon. However, I suspect it will be a few years before she’s back given the way she works.
Both Michelle and Hong Chau have a Kelly Reinhardt film out in April. It probably won’t be a thing, but who knows. Clearly the academy and precursors are changing and Williams is always amazing in those films.
I feel like Killers of the Flower Moon is going to be a big hit and Fraser will be back next year with a supporting nomination to say "We stand by our Whale decision."
I do feel saddest for Angela Bassett. None of her upcoming film projects look promising, so I hope she finds something soon that can be a vehicle. She's especially hurt by the fact that she's in a top 20 network television show that doesn't have any critical claim or awareness around it, so it ties her up from filming other things.
My brain says Cate Blanchett simply due to the law of averages. She's a shoe-in for a third Oscar at some point and consistently turns in great work.
My heart (and vote) is with Hong Chau. I've been rooting for her since Downsizing and she's finally been welcomed into the club. Oscar can't possibly return to ignoring her tremendous range and sensitivity, right? Ditto Brian Tyree Henry and Barry Keoghan. I wasn't as familiar with Stephanie Hsu until EEAAO but I'm eager to see what she does next, as well.
@Joe G-"Showing Up" looks terrific and it has not just Chau and Williams but Judd Hirsch as well, three of this year's nominees in one film!
This nomination is probably it: Curtis, Hirsh, Quan, Fraser, Nighy
Unlikely unless a really good role: Yeoh, Hsu, Condon
Reliable character actors who will at least get SAG attention: Henry, Gleeson, Chau, Riseborough
Rising stars who should have access to good script: Mescal, Keoghan, Butler, de Armas
They owe you another nomination: Farrell, Bassett
Already favorites; probably looking at wins in the future: Williams, Blanchett
Williams seems like an obvious choice, and it's about time the "overdue" narrative on her kicks into the very highest gear.
I stand by my comment in the other thread that I think this is the last time Fraser will be anywhere near an Oscar. I don’t think he’ll get any attention for Flower Moon, and I don’t think he fills a void for prestige projects that others aren’t capable of filling.
Fraser has Killers of the Flower Moon coming up this year, and I definitely could see his getting an afterglow nomination in supporting (similar to Philip Seymour Hoffman’s and Eddie Redmayne’s noms immediately after their winning on their first nom).
I do hope all of the actors of color—Bassett, Chau, Henry, Hsu, Quan, Yeoh—get follow-up noms, which of course would necessitate their actually getting the roles they deserve and desire. (Fingers crossed.)
Bassett just needs the roles now,momentum is high and i'd happily applaude her when she receives her flowers more so than I would if she'd won for Wakanda Forever as powerful as she was in her big scene.
Blanchett and Williams, sadly. Although if Bassett's manager was smart, she would be getting Angela in something prestige or indie-but-from-a-surging-talent immediately. She has no such ties to Marvel anymore. If she could get that, she could easily use the momentum from this year (although, sadly, there comes a point for many who quite understandable they decide the awards cycle is just too much of an uphill battle).
People say Blanchett, but Blanchett is not somebody who receives nominations all the time. Just take a look.
Six years between first and second nomination!
Then she received three nominations very quickly.
Then, six years between her fifth and sixth nomination.
She then received her seventh only two years after her sixth.
And then she waited seven years for her eighth nomination.
Chances are she will wait some 5-6 years for her nomination. I'm pretty certain people like Mescal, Williams, maybe even Bassett and Farrell will be back earlier.
And Chao is such a huge (and underrated) talent that I hope she gets an Oscar very soon. She deserves it.
I think the EEAAO bunch will be one-timers due to how difficult is for them to get a meaty role in an important production... Hsu (and Chau, also) may be back because they put themselves on the map, and didn't win, they may be nominated again, as Supporting.
Cate will be the quickest to return, then Williams... Fraser has an outside shot with Killers of the Flower Moon, as well.
@Sontag Glick - She has 8 nominations over 24 years. I think that puts her in a category as someone who frequently gets nominated. On average, from 1998 to 2022, she's getting nominated every 3 years. Compared to Michelle Yeoh who got her first nomination at 60 and may not get the type of parts Blanchett gets.
Blanchett is getting older and Hollywood is not generous with parts for older actresses, but I think Blanchett and Kidman will have a similar trajectory as Meryl Streep.
@Raul -- I don't argue that Yeoh will be the first to return but I also disagree that Blanchett and Kidman will have a similar trajectory to Meryl Streep. Streep is able to get into the final five even if her film crashes and burns. Blanchett and Kidman are not that lucky.
And Blanchett is 54 this year. Kidman is 57 this year.
Blanchett has 8 nominations, Kidman has 5 nominations.
At 54, Streep had 13 Oscar nominations. That's a big difference. And Blanchett usually takes longer periods than Streep to return as nominee. So while I expect Blanchett to be a powerhouse, I don't think she has the same trajectory as Streep. Not even close.
I expect Mescal, Chao or de Armas to be the quickest to return.