April Foolish Predictions: Best Supporting Actor
Saturday, April 27, 2024 at 10:01AM by Nathaniel R
Samuel L Jackson was Tony-nominated for The Piano Lesson on Broadway. Will the transfer result in another Oscar nomination?
It's the last four days of April Foolish Predcitions and, thus, time for the acting categories. A year out nobody knows anything, particularly in regards to the supporting categories since they're less dependent on juicy obvious-from-a-distance leading roles and far more dependent on things you can't really know in advance like who will "steal" the movie, how large their supporting roles will be, and whether they'll film will have enough heat to ignite their campaigns. This is when it's most fun, especially in the supporting categories where you can imagine almost anything happen. By the time the televised awards roll around each year there is zero drama in Best Supporting Actor (though we infrequenely see some in Best Supporting Actress).
Last year's lopsided contest was the Robert vs Ryan showdown with two full blown movie stars competing for the supporting gold, one leaning into a career achievement narrative while the other was content to ride his film's pink zeitgeist wave rather than worry about the gold...
In the end, Oscar sided with the dramatic achievement over the comic one which is the usual way of things, no matter which performance will still be talked about in ten years time (hint: it's the comic one). Will this year's contest be another slow coronation? It's been almost a full decade since we had a nailbiting finish in this category; you have to go back to the Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) vs Sly Stallone (Creed) battle of 2015 to find any 'who might win?' suspense at all at the big show.
But for the moment, nine months before the nominations, it's anyone's game. Who will get the most screentime? Who will excite the media? Who will become a flavor of the moment? Will anyone muster up a 'career achievement' moment? Which leads will be demoted to supporting? More specifically questions we thought about on the chart...
- Will the two central roles in The Nickel Boys (Brandon Wilson & Ethan Herisse) be considered "supporting" since the actors are both young?
- Who gets the best supporting role in Blitz?
- Which "potential Pope" will steal the show in Conclave -- Stanley Tucci or John Lithgow or...?
- What are the supporting roles like in Gladiator 2?
- Will voters care that Samuel L Jackson just received an Honorary when considering his turn in The Piano Lesson?
- What Category Fraud hijinx are in store for Sundance hit A Real Pain with its two male leads, Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg?
- Does Giancarlo Esposito's role in Megalopolis have as much potential as we're guessing or is the synopsis misleading in this regard and will someone else pop?
- Is Jeremy Strong's Roy Cohn in The Apprentice a showy cameo or a full role?
- When will Oscar voters notice rising stars like Harris Dickinson (Blitz) or George Mackay (The End)?
In short there are a million questions and no answers (YET) so we are free to imagine almost anything. What are YOU imagining at this early juncture?
THE CHARTS!
Prediction Index | Best Picture | Best Director | Best Supporting Actor | Best Original and Adapted Screenplay | Visual Categories | Sound and Music Categories | Best Animated Feature
Reader Comments (24)
I'm most excited about Samuel L. Jackson in THE PIANO LESSON and would probably consider him the safest prediction this early on.
Though I'm very excited for MEGALOPOLIS, I struggle to see it thriving as an awards movie. Still, it'd be nice to see Esposito gain some recognition beyond his TV work.
I have only seen a still pic of Jeremy Strong as Roy Cohn but he could easily sweep.
I agree with Claudio that Jackson seems the safest bet.
There are a lot of possible nominees mostly associated with TV this year- Culkin, Strong, Lithgow, Esposito. Oscar doesn't usually honor these performers accept with a one and done nomination like Tyler Moore or Cranston. Allison Janney won because her biggest competition was also closely associated with TV. I firmly believe what tipped the scales to Janney was the fact that she kept making movies on the side while Metcalf hadn't made a film in years. Was Janney the last TV person to win an Oscar?
TomG, John Lithgow is a two time Academy Award nominee. He is not just a tv actor.
Feels like time for Tucci if the role is there. Culkin sure sounds like a lead (not that that often matters). I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for Bird. And I'm curious if The Bikeriders could produce anyone. Honoring Esposito would be cool, but the general word on that film ...
@Pedro- if it were up to me, Lithgow would be a winner by now. But I think most of the public might be more familiar with his tv work at this point since it is more recent (The Crown, Dexter, 3rd Rock from the Sun) then any of his Oscar nominated films.
@ TomG
Rami Malek, Olivia Colman and Regina King after Janney.
@Frank Zappa- I knew I had to have been forgetting people!
I have the same feeling about Jackson I had about Jamie Lee early in the year,it's a breakway from the superhero universe and it's 30 yrs since is last nomination,the narrative is there.
If RDJ could sail to a win in reality so could Jackson and he deserves it.
I'm all for Harris Dickinson AND George Mackay making it in - I recently watched 'Scrapper' and 'Femme' and i just absolutely love the two of them - anything they do is great!
I've got John Turturro at #1 for The Room Next Door. When you look back at his filmography and how many times he could/should have been nominated, the vertigo strikes you. Turturro, directed by probably the best actors' director alive, and who also happens to be a factory of creation of memorable screenplays and dialogues, that has achieved that THREE performances from his foreign speaking films were nominated in LEAD? How many supporting performances in Almodovar films would have been nominated and even won, if they were English spoken? Too many to count.
I think The Room Next Door might be aiming to 3-4 acting nominations, Director and Original Screenplay, aside from Picture. Wins? I don't know, but if any, Turturro would be the most logical candidate: Do the Right Thing, Barton Fink, The Big Lebowski, Millers Crossing, O Brother... should I continue about his tremendous legacy?
By the way, in Supporting Actress, my #1 right now, is Maria Bakalova, for "The Apprentice"... real person, long suffering wife role, robbed from the win and making some really good moves in her career (indie - Bodies Bodies Bodies - and blockbusters - Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 3) which is still starting, and always stealing the show (even in the bomb that was "The Bubble", she and Pascal were saving Gracies)
Denzel Washington plans to produce film adaptations of all August Wilson plays. So far we've had Fences and Ma Raynes' Black Bottom.
I would not sleep on Javier Bardem in Dune Part II. That film will be in the conversation come awards season (certainly for technicals, posisbly for Picture/Director depending how the rest of the year shapes up), he gives the most entertaining performance, and Oscar loves him.
I remember getting criticized when I suggested SLJ years ago for an honorary award and I’m so glad he got one, the whole of his contribution to Hollywood is much greater than the (still considerable) sum of the parts. The AMPAS really got it right with that one.
And frankly he’s a similar mix of “huge star,” “huge talent,” “bad timing,” “what if?” that would make the case for Michelle Pfeiffer, etc.
Jesus -- i just don't see it with Turturro. Almodovar films just don't get attention for the male roles.
Peter -- i *loved* Bardem in Dune Part Two but i can't possibly imagine it happening. They just don't take sci-fi acting seriously for some reason.
Tom G -- i do think Oscar in the past has ignored that sort of performer but with *evey* star now doing both tv and film that separation is really vanishing.
NATHANIEL R -- I still remember when you insisted Amy Adams wasn't that safe with ARRIVAL because of the Academy's anti-sci-fi bias. So many people said you would be proven wrong, but alas. As much as I'd love something as unexpected as Bardem and Ferguson becoming awards players for DUNE, I also find it unlikely.
I feel like I'm the only one beating this drum (and I haven't even SEEN the movie yet), but Stan's A DIFFERENT MAN has gotten pretty good notices with some saying Adam Pearson steals the show. Can anyone who has seen it confirm this?
As for GLADIATOR 2, I thought I read somewhere that the supporting roles to watch out for were actually Denzel Washington and Joseph Quinn NOT Pedro Pascal so we'll see if that turns out to be true!
It feels like a nominee line-up of Esposito, Jackson, Culkin, and Strong would almost be too good to be true in what is often a disappointing category... but we did have Gosling and Keoghan make it in for remarkable performances recently.
Bardem was my MVP in Dune 2, but it feels like they are pushing Austin Butler, who wasn't nearly as interesting.
I don't think Almodóvar in English will be a hit - he was snubbed twice with the shorts - but I have to say that I LOVED him in Gloria Bell with Moore. But still, maybe the character is not juicy (think Darion Grandinetti in Julieta, for example)?
NATHANIEL - “ i just don't see it with Turturro. Almodovar films just don't get attention for the male roles”. I’m confused. Are you talking about Oscars? Because we have 2 Penelopes X 1 Banderas. Are you talking in general? Because there are a lot o male players in Almodóvar movies which got a lot of attention (the aforementioned Banderas in Pain & Glory, also for The Skin I Live In, Bardem in Live Flesh, Bernal in Bad Education, Javier Camara in Talk to Her…
I can see Turturro having a similar path as Banderas regarding “famous good actor never nominated”.
"Succession" 's boys Strong vs Culkin?
It'll be great!
Nathaniel - "Looks good so far and can't wait for the rest. Oh, in case you updated the nominations predications after the April Fools ones, I would add the upcoming film "The Electric State' to the visual effects category seen how it's effects are lead by Michael Meinardus and Matthew E. Butler that are now Oscar darlings".
I think both Bardem and Butler will get some precursor notice for Dune. Whether that turns into Oscar notice will be the bigger question.