Oscar Prediction Updates
Sunday, December 9, 2012 at 11:34PM 
Just a heads up that I've finished updating the Oscar Prediction Charts. Obviously I shall continue tinkering to prettify and add links and fix and whatnot but this is where I stand now. You'll notice that I am still high on Argo and Les Miz in many categories where others have dismissed them but we haven't even heard from the Guilds (particularly the Actors) and we've only just begun; critics awards aren't everything. The Animation/Documentary and Foreign pages are still being reconstructed and Original Song... well, I'm lost. I'll get to that one this week. It's true that I haven't updated that one in ages. So much new information... no time to process from feverish delirium and screener / screening / precursor frenzy. This accelerated Oscar schedule gets two Uma-Cowgirl sized* Thumbs Down from me thus far.
I realize that posting has been truly and bizarrely minimal in one of the busiest weeks of the year but I shall eventually rise from the ashes. I think. 2012 has just not been kind to me -- this is not a self-pity party but the plain WTF truth -- but hopefully you will be (kind) and stick around.
* now obscure 90s reference. my apologies
Oscars (12)
Reader Comments (33)
Nathaniel: Hope everything gets better for you. I love your blog. I've been following it religiously for years now, always look forward to reading you entries, and remember that it's not the quantity of entries but the quality of them, and you never sacrifice the latter. Keep it up!
Somebody from Argo will end up with a supporting nod. I'm hoping for Goodman since I've adored him for over 30 years, but it will most likely go to Arkin.
I think with the critics awards, McConoughey, Dicaprio, and Henry have all gotten bumps in the past week.
Something interesting to note for the song category: Django's the first Tarantino film to include original songs. Four of them. Guessing one of those could be among the contenders, alongside Les Mis and Skyfall's very likely entries and probably something from Brave or Wreck-It Ralph as well.
Also Cloud Atlas should be on the list of possibilities for Best Score. The movie is in part about writing music and the score was the focus of their first FYC ad in Variety. Plus it's a great score with one of the more memorably haunting themes from among this year's movies. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Moonrise Kingdom ends up disqualified due to having so much preexisting music on the soundtrack (though we know they're inconsistent in following that rule, the disqualifications seem to be more heavily applied to the "critics" movies that break the rule (TWBB, Tree of Life) while the "Academy" movies that break it get a pass (Babel, King's Speech), and Moonrise Kingdom is not an "Academy" movie).
I am so glad you are still fostering Argo... I thought it was an amazing movie in all areas.
I am with you on almost ALL of your choices... the one I really am not with you on is John Goodman in Flight... I know the movie needed comic relief, but he was too ridiculous and invasive to the movie ... better have him in Argo .. I liked him better than Arkin...
Nathaniel did you see Django? I know the embargo is still in effect but even most nonplussed reactions so far have yielded a lot of praise for at least one of the supporting actors, and I was surprised not to see any comment from you.
Casey -- I have not yet seen Django. it's just another symptom of the terrible terrible no good "is this some kind of joke" time i'm having this year. I'm totally scared i'm getting pneumonia again. FUCK YOU GERMS! and since they didn't send a screener having trouble making it to screening with the coughin and the fever and such.
Loving the site and not going anywhere. Feel better!
I'm starting to wonder if Helen Mirren and Naomi Watts aren't on the outside looking in, at this point. Their two films seem to be getting absolutely no positive attention: Hitchcock appears DOA and has been critically shredded, whereas Impossible is starting to feel non-existent due to it's hyper-hushed December 31st at 11:59pm release schedule.
But who to replace them with? Marion Cotillard's performance is much beloved, but I hear it's not a very Oscar-friendly film, plus it's foreign. And I've always been skeptical about Quvenzhane Wallis' potential because I still suspect they'll be some resistance to nominating such a young girl for Best Actress.
An exciting year, at least!
Yeah.. I think Django will be more competitive than you seem to believe (both the film and the performances), but maybe it won't be the academy's cup of tea.
Is Christoph Waltz not even going to factor in? I don't spot him in any of your categories, longshots,..etc, but could be blind.
"2012 has just not been kind to me -- this is not a self-pity party but the plain WTF truth -- but hopefully you will be (kind) and stick around."
You had an interview with Nicole Kidman. This statement is INSTANTLY INVALIDATED.
haha, but seriously, i'm on this site every single day and i've been following it for years. I don't even remember what brought me here, but i'm here to stay. Love the discussions and the articles. Plus, there's so much to look forward to! (NK interview, Les Mis review, features, 'ask nathaniel' sections, bond movie roundup, etc.)
I'm never much on Oscar, but that's just because i find Oscar politics to be such a turn off, plus, in recent years, so much of the suprise has been taken away in certain categories. Anyways, i'm digressing.
Feel better soon!
Nat - Sorry to hear that, man. The Holidays and a new year are right around the corner, so keep your head up. As for Django something tells me you won't be able to escape the year without seeing it ;) In the meantime, feel better.
I hear ya, Nathaniel. 2012: shitty year personally, good year movie wise. But then it's probably because there's so much I haven't seen.
Even Oscar pundits get the blues.
DiCaprio won´t get nominated. He plays a nasty white slave owner. He should have played a charming white slave liberator. Or at least a dashing slave owner.
But somehow, his "narrative" - I have come to understand that an actor´s narrative is of paramount importance - will still be that he is an over-rated and shameless Oscar whore.
Sam, that isn't a narrative that's a perceived (by you) public opinion. You're certainly not alone in that view but based on the fact that DiCaprio has been nominated several times for Oscars and is regularly in the running even if he isn't ultimately nominated, it would seem the people who matter on this one don't think he's overrated and certainly not too much of a whore to turn them off. If he has a narrative it will be something like - 'overdue megastar/respected character actor goes against type under direction of savvy auteur to plumb depths previously unknown and alter perceptions about his identity as an artist."
That's a narrative, and should critics take to his performance I think it's likely one that will get him on the shortlist.
The only thing to know about original song is that there will be five nominees again. I don't know if they're going to do the bake-off to scale back the choices again, but I do know that five nominees guarantees a film like Les Mis getting in for their original song. The Hunger Games could get in for Abraham's Daughter. Karen O could get in for her Frankenweenie theme since the film has great buzz and her song is instantly memorable. The Lorax had an original song score, so don't be surprised if two of those get in, too.
I'm pretty clueless about this category this year. I honestly don't remember a lot of original songs in films. It's opening and closing credits more than anything else.
Just checked your list. Safe and Sound from The Hunger Games is not eligible. Only the first song in the closing credits can get in and that's Abraham's Daughter.
WE LOVE YOU NATHANIEL!!!!!!
: )
Just one quick question -- What are the odds of Maggie Smith getting THREE Golden Globe nominations on Thursday (Marigold Hotel, Quartet, and Dowtown Abbey)?
Feel better soon! It's got to be a (bitter)sweet benefit that you can catch up on screeners with your sick time.
I started to feel some sick days coming on (which I think have been averted, happily), and all I could think of was taking inspiration from you and watching movies all day long, which is a pretty strong upside!
I kinda have to shake my head at Lead Actress. I see the top ten quite a bit differently, right now.
1. Jessica Chastain
2. Emmanuelle Riva
3. Jennifer Lawrence
4. Naomi Watts
5. Leslie Mann
6. Rachel Weisz
7. Mary Elizabeth Winstead (If she gets a Globe nom and/or the FYC campaign decides to play up the Days of Wine and Roses parallels, she could spoil for a nom.)
8. Meryl Streep (You just KNOW it's very rare she's been out of their top 10 for a given year, with 84, 89 and 07 as the few exceptions)
9. Helen Mirren (There's something to be said for "defaulting", but I hope that doesn't happen.)
Toss up for slot ten between: Cotillard (second foreign language film with untraditional character), Wallis (YOUNG) and Knightley (THEY HAVE NO TASTE FOR TOLSTOY. If Vivien Leigh can't pull the nom in 1948, what makes you think a divisive actress like Knightley can pull it off in 2012, when Tolstoy is more associated with self-conscious intellectual pleasure than the more middle-brow tastes of the Academy?)
why do you keep excluding Amy Adams out of the top 5 in the Best Supporting Actress category? You seem to not be very impressed with her performance in The Master.
I think Suraj Sharma should be in the discussion for Best Actor. What a terrific performance.
bluemoonz -- it's true i was not that impressed with her performance but the charts are predictions not preferences The only reason i have her on the outisde looking in is that The Master is seeming like it could be entirely snubbed to me and if it holds on it's more likely to hold on with the male stars since they have the big roles.
Soooo... are we just not going to mention that Les Miz has a 55 on Metacritic?
Three supporting performances which I really did love this year (but will surely be overlooked) are Michelle Pfeiffer in "People Like Us," Christina Ricci in "Bel-Ami," and Mira Sorvino in "Union Square."
I think you are defintely underestimating Moonrise Kingdom. This was was probably the most charming film this year. I would swap out The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel for Moonrise, and your predictions will be pretty much spot on.
I do think that Jessica Chastain is the frontrunner, Lawrence has won 1 thing and she shares it with Riva :) so I don't understand why Lawrence is your number 1 pick at the moment.
@ Jeffrey, I hadn't noticed that, thanks for mentioning it :)
it's an important thing to know actually, this puts The Hobbit on higher ground based on it's 60/100 score, but let's wait and see what all the 40+ critics have to say.
With 38 critics, Hitchcock's evaluation is pretty much final I suppose. It has received Iron Lady-type of scores.
Nathaniel, re health: speaking as someone who used to be plagued with bronchitis/pneumonia, things got way better when I was diagnosed with seasonal asthma and got a puffer. I know everyone's circumstances are individual, but it made such an incredible difference and I wondered why no one had thought to diagnose that before. Not making a sales pitch, but your asthma prone friends would tell you the same.
And the quality of your website remains top notch, as always.
I'm still holding out hope that the music for Beasts will somehow get past the gremlins that vote on Best Original Score.
For your Oscar predications, can you have Katsuhiro Otomo's Combustible in Best Animated Short? Cause his animation is rich and I think it is better than The Eagelman Strag cause the Academy wants rich animation like Otomo. While the Eagelman Strag was good, I don't see it being nominated due to who is nominated and it's year release.