April Foolish Predictions. Let's Talk Best Picture
Saturday, April 4, 2015 at 4:12PM Subverting expectations, let's not start small but big with our annual April Foolish Oscar predictions. The first chart is up for the BEST PICTURE competition. Bear in mind that apart from Fox Searchlight's Brooklyn, (reviewed at Sundance) nobody has seen any of these films so this is pure fumbling in the dark for things that have the general shape of Oscar darlings. There are so many variables in each season and this first guess as to the general field is meant to spur conversation and must be taken with a grain of salt salt block.
A lot of recent Oscar darlings will try to sell new wares including Hooper, Inarritu, Vallée, Tarantino, and David O. Russell. Steven Spielberg, a perennial, could be back with his cold war film Bridge of Spies. Previous winners with heavy cobwebs on them in terms of Academy favor like Ron Howard, Warren Beatty, Jonathan Demme and Robert Zemeckis will try for comebacks. And one of TFE's all time favorite filmmakers, Todd Haynes, is back after a long long big screen hiatus. Oscar has never quite known what to do with him so will they figure him out once they see Carol? It's a big question mark even though the movie sure looks like a potential beauty.
The films I have the most faith in at the moment -- in terms of Oscar appeal only -- are The Danish Girl and The Revenant but it's all guesswork until we see real footage on all these films.
Thoughts? Psychic revelations? Future tomatoes thrown?
Reader Comments (31)
Glad you are starting big and looking at your chart it's hard to pick because we are yet not sure if the academy will go back to five which it should really. The Danish Girl is a nice choice for number one and currently reading the novel the story is quite horrific and while I trust the story it's the casting of Redmayne and direction of Hooper that worries me. I feel similar to Les Miz this could be a big contender that ends up disappointing. I just choose to ignore The Revenant for now hearing about all the troubles and usually the academy never likes to go for their previous winners the next year. Brooklyn makes me so happy because you have such a great novel being translated by a novelist turned screenwriter who so far is two for two in terms of great screenplays and you have Saoirse Ronan giving her first truly grown up performance and if buzz is to be believed this is our indie darling similar to An Education only six years ago. Bridge of Spies and Heart of the Sea are question marks and seem like good on paper that could turn out average on screen.
I know you question Carol and Suffragette but both are picked up by the perfect distributers and with the backlash to Brokeback losing 10 years ago and DuVernay snubbed last year both this films will take on the give back. Carol for being the story of a lesbian affair and Suffragette for having the female director. Also it's time that we give films about women the big breaks they need and really the female movement in cinema is really a big issue and these films doing well isn't going to change anything overnight but will hopefully show stories about women should be done more often then not.
So far this far in advance I would say Carol is the pick for me because following directors like Wes Anderson, Alfonso Cuaron, Michael Haneke and David O.Russell to name a few it seems this could be Todd Haynes chance to really hit the big time. Also with Weinstein making it his number one pony depending on quality which we should find out in less then a month and a half with a Cannes debut I can see the film being a massive contender.
P.S. Giving an Oscar to a gay director for a film about the LGBT community will be the academy making a big statement similar to when they rewarded 12 Years a Slave because the issues of the LGBT community is just as discussed as those of the African American community when 12YAS won.
Given that FROST/NIXON (his second Best Director nom) was only seven years ago, it seems a little harsh to throw the cobwebs over Ron Howard (particularly when lumping him in with definite dusty directors Beatty, Zemeickis and Demme).
Yeah, I don't know that Beatty is in Oscar's wheelhouse in 2015. If they're going for another Hollywood-based film next year, I'd definitely bet on Cranston and Trumbo first.
I really want to believe that The Revenant will get passed over, but....
Travis -- you may hve a point but even at the time the Frost/Nixon film was not greeted kindly as being "contemporary" Oscar, if you know what I mean.
Looks like a lot of Adapted Screenplays from novels. I have "The Martian" on hold at the library. Must get more.
Check LaineyGossip for the sources on "The Revenant". Supposedly, Inarritu (sp?) and Tom Hardy are not happy with each other. AL-LEDGE-ED-LY
I read some not-so-positive comments about Howard's next film, so I'm not putting a lot of faith into it TBH.
you're underestimating Carol tremendously
Of those listed, I'm most excited to see Carol. Feel like I've been waiting forever for it.
I don't know if Hayne's style will ever be accessible enough for the academy. Its possible Carol can get a best picture nomination, especially if the category doesn't go back to five nominees but I don't think it can win.
I think your faith in both "Bridge of Spies" and "Brooklyn" is well founded. I would love Tarantino to be less of an Oscar magnet but he will be in the running regardless of how I feel about him.
As for the trio of Female films - a best picture nomination will not happen if there are only 5 slots, "Carol" has a shot if there is a larger field. It saddens me to say that - but the sexism towards female driven films is a very real factor in terms of distribution, publicity, and awards chances. Best to be realistic,
Nat: 29 films cited and no tracking at all for either Inside Out or Concussion? Meanwhile, you're forwarding Tomorrowland and that backwards Secret in their Eyes remake as top 20 contenders? Honestly, I'm guessing that on paper the "win contest" for Best Picture this year is between Inside Out, Joy and Concussion, if it doesn't fall flat on it's face. Let's take a look at your top ten:
The Danish Girl: Tom Hooper is not going to be behind more than one Best Picture winner.
The Revenant: Same with Inarritu.
Brooklyn: Intimate period romantic melodrama is the stuff of nominations, not wins.
Bridge of Spies: You can't entirely discount the possibility of Spielberg getting nominated, but critics don't really want him getting more wins.
In the Heart of the Sea: Ron Howard is ALSO someone who can't win Best Picture more than once.
The Walk: It's been a long time since Oscar handed out it's Oscar to this story, plus there's not much room for performative fireworks. If it comes out this year, I'd guess Snowden is a better shot for JGL Oscar consideration, in spite of Oliver Stone.
Steve Jobs: Boyle can't win more than once and Oscar's just NOT interested enough in computer history.
Freeheld and Carol: If an LGBT film IS nominated, it'll be a fringe factor and performance winner, not a winner.
Suffragette: Um, Carey Mulligan is the lead role. I'm guessing Streep is the mentor role. Also: Abi Morgan writing.
Of that list, there's only about 12 films I'm interested in seeing, and maybe 6 directors whose work I'd like to see. I do appreciate that the Film Experience list is always more classy and geared to a more artistic taste, and I'm always happy to see that.
But it makes me want to start totally spurious conversations, like how The Clouds of Sils Maria is going to be this year's Birdman, both being mediations on aging actors. And how this year's It Girl, Alicia Vikander, will be nominated for her most serious role, Testament of Youth.
Parts of The Revenant are being filmed 13 km from where I live in Alberta, Canada. (They have built an 1820s fort.) Around town, there is no word of difficulty on the set. Many locals are working on the movie and the only problem being reported is the lack of snow this year. Word is they have had to have snow-making machines and/or "import" snow to place around the fort. There is supposed to be a major snowfall overnight, so hopefully that will expedite filming of the movie's winter scenes. If I knew how to add a photo of the fort in its mountain setting, I'd do so. Alas, I don't know how.
volvagia -- i''m fully aware. i didn't mean it that literally. i just meant Blanchett, Streep, and Moore immediately lend prestige to their films. as for INSIDE OUT it's so obviously geared toward children and will not be a best picture contender. The days of Pixar being in the mix are probably gone as they are no longer infallible in the eyes of the media/industry
as for CONCUSSION we shall see. But i think Christmas releases in the year of Star Wars are going to struggle for oxygen for media attention -- also just a note: my charts are never about "wins" prior to nominations which seems to be the direction of your comments. the charts are always predictions of nominations only
yavor -- oh i totally hope you're right. But Haynes has never been their cup of tea. we'll see.
adri -- i'm not sure what you mean about 'the film experience list' ? do you mean my own awards or my prediction lists? i'd love to think clouds of sils maria would be in conversations but my guess is its way too abstract for mainstream attention (and Oscar is mainstream no matter what the media likes to sniffle about when it comes to "they don't nominated blockbusters!" whining) and it's also entirely about actresses so that's probably a no for awards love of any kind (sigh).
Nathaniel - I definitely don't think you should rule out Inside Out at this point. Especially if it's hailed as a "comeback", like I hope it will be. It's too soon to be speaking with such certainty, especially because Pixar's marketing often reveals very little of what the end product turns out to be.
I had to check as I was worried the director of SUFRAGETTE was Phylicia Lloyd.
Right there with you, adri. RIght now, I'm trying to figure out if I can predict 45 Years for the big five and maybe fit Fatih Akin in there as well.
Arkaan: You can't fit Akin in. The Cut's reviews weren't nearly good enough.
Nat: I am predicting some things that I know will just be nominees, but to have no plausible seeming winner on paper in your top 10 is bizarre.
I've been feeling for a while now that The Danish Girl, Joy, and Carol are the sight-unseen front runners, but who knows? Personally I'm pulling for Mad Max Fury Road's teaser trailer for the surprise upset!
re: I thought that might be the case re Akin, but whatever. T'is the season for insanity.
That said, is there such a thing as a plausible winner this early? I mean, I can dismiss any film with a pithy one-liner
There are rumors that Inside Out is playing at Cannes so a Best Picture run could happen. They would need there to be more than five nomination spots available though.
My predictions: The Hateful Eight, In the Heart of the Sea, Bridge of Spies, Me and Earl..., and The Danish Girl. Everest, Sufragette, The Revenant, Demolition, and Inside Out round out a top ten.
Evan -- but animated films often play Cannes. I guess i have yet to be impressed with footage from Inside Out. I hope it's good cuz it'd be sweet to have another great Pixar.
Why female-driven movies don`t have a shot in a 5-nominees scenario? Most years had one female-driven movie, like Juno & Atonement, or The Reader, or The Queen, or Chicago & The Hours. I can see Carol getting in a top 5.
cal -- that's true. one makes it in occasionally. and in 1977 all 5 were about women. That's like a unicorn year.
but still i dont see why everyone is so confident about Carol. It's gay and it's Todd Haynes and its Patricia Highsmith, NONE or which are "bait" so to speak in terms of typical Oscar tastes. Cate Blanchett will help surely, but i'm not sure how they'll respond to it, even if it's great.
The only film I think you've undervalued is The Sea of Trees, and I'm hopeful for an academy breatkthrough for Villeneuve and Blunt in Sicario. Other than that, I like the list.
My top 10 right now:
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Steve Jobs
4. The Revenant
5. Brooklyn
6. The Sea of Trees
7. In the Heart of the Sea
8. Suffragette
9. Joy
10. The Danish Girl
Volvagia: Just cause Inarritu and Hooper won an oscar doesn't mean they are out in the future. Look at Milos Forman who is a great filmmaker and maybe even better than those two has had two BP wins.
As for Carol i heard the test screening was very good but not out of this world film. Don't know how it will play at Oscars. Heard the cinematography is incredible. But Oscar doesn't seem to be that interested in LGBT films unless its one thats easier for them to digest like Imitation game. But as always its too early for me to put my money on a film.
The Revenant is a great story and the book was very good, but the film might be way too gory for the academy. Has and 127 hours vibe coming from the book, but this will be a special one i can tell. Don't know if Leo will win for it either. Its a great role, but if it follows the book Leo will not be talking much at all. Almost a bit like All Is Lost. I have heard that there is trouble on set. Hardy apparently hit or strangled Innaritu after a disagreement. Plus I've heard Inarritu isn't easy to work for. Apparently a few crew members were hysterical crying on Birdman cause of him. I heard the Birdman story from a very legit source so I believe that 100 %. But supposedly when he is not on set he is a pretty decent guy.
Demolition is the one I'm most intrigued by. Valle seems to be poised for a huge breakthrough and that cast is promising. Apparently its a dark comedy.
Sea of Trees I'm interested in as well but I hear the ending is very polarizing.
And a personal one of mine is Creed, but I'm not sure how far it will go. I am predicting a supporting nom for Stallone though.
I'd rank "The 33" higher. Let's get this straight... the trailer looks exactly what Oscar loves - not necessarily what I do love. While I found the trailer a bit hammy, the story, filmmaking is Oscary-by-numbers, Antonio Banderas is both respected and overdue for some recognition, the supporting cast is composed of a variety of names that could turn out as irresistible for the acting branch, specially if the "lack of latinos" card is used in the campaigning... even thought the cast is international and interracial... Antonio Banderas, Rodrigo Santoro, Juliette Binoche, James Brolin, Gabriel Byrne, Adriana Barazza, Lou Diamond Phillips, living legend Federico Luppi and spanish hearthrob and megastar Mario Casas (who I normally despise, till I saw his brilliant and hilarious comedic turn in Ale de la Iglesia's Bitching & Witching).
Bill Condon's Mr. Holmes, might be a slam dunk, by the way. Not many people has seen it, but it already shows off a brilliant 8,6 average at IMDB... maybe faked by publicity, maybe not.
Jesus -- thanks for the recall on MR HOLMES. I'd forgotten about that one! The reason THE 33 is lower (and this reason is shared by many other films) is because it has no set release plans or distributor for US yet). in those cases sometimes the film gets it together in time. Other times we don't see it until the next calendar year (though we always see it if there are that many stars in it :)
Josh -- i contemplated that. it would be a nice full circle for Rocky. But i suspect the movie wil lhave to be *really* good to conjure up that kind of affection for a series that let itself become an instant cash cow / quality who cares thing afterwards. we'll see.
I agree it will have to be really good in order for that to happen, but i do think it could happen especially since Rocky is rumored to be dying in it. So the tears might help. But it is my big wild card pic. Coogler could possibly do something great but yeah it will need to be great.
Re: The Revenant. Word around town now is that, because of the lack of snow, they are planning to finish filming in the fall. Snow usually starts up there in September. October and November could give them enough to film the winter scenes. Still no word of animosity amongst participants. However, if shooting schedules are extended, I imagine that could create some difficulties if certain actors had prior commitments. Perhaps The Revenant will be a 2016 release, not 2015? Something to think about.