Final Nomination Predictions: Picture / Director / Screenplays
Friday, January 19, 2018 at 12:41PM by Nathaniel R
What a final month this has been in the march towards nominations. What were Oscar voters thinking during the week that stretched from the Golden Globes through the BAFTA nominations? You had to freeze the buzz right there and try and make sense of it while also trying to ignore anything that happened thereafter which can't really have an effect. Hell, you can't even really be sure that things that happened during voting truly changed things. Was there time, for instance, for voters to turn on James Franco -- he was added to the long list of men being accused of sexual misconduct that week but the story didn't get loud until the last few days of voting. Did voters even notice the BAFTA nominations and their total rejection of The Post and the minor kisses blown to both Phantom Thread and Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (two very last minute releases that have mostly struggled in the precursors). How did Oscar voters feel about the Three Billboards frontrunner heat and its subsequent backlash? We shall soon find out. Tuesday morning in point of fact...
BEST PICTURE <--- See the full chart for more details
The Locks Three Billboards, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Dunkirk are sure bets. They're the lineup you'd have gotten if we were still in 2008 before the Best Picture field expanded to 10 for two years and then to its current shape-shifting ugliness of 5,6,7,8,9 or 10. Eight or nine nominees is the size we've typically been getting with the new voting structure.
Extra Predictions: My gut says that only two films should feel confident about joining them. The Post has had a rocky precursor journey but that doesn't negate the fact that audiences are definitely interested in it, and it's an appealing option to any voter still pining for the simpler days of Oscar bait message movies. I Tonya was peaking at just the right time during voting and it's unique enough within its competitive field to be remembered when you're scribbling down your ballot. So, that's seven.
Eight or Nine? Beyond those 7 I feel confident about nothing. I'd wager that the next two in line (should we get 8 or 9 nominees are Call Me By Your Name and The Big Sick.
Wild card disrupters? If those aren't the top nine -- and chances of 10 nominees are mathematically extremely slim -- my gut says that Phantom Thread rather than, say, The Florida Project, Mudbound, Darkest Hour, or Wonder Woman, will kick some more precursor-celebrated film out. Why? The simple matter of recency combined with a wildly admired filmmaker who still doesn't have an Oscar if you can believe it. No, not even for writing.
BEST DIRECTOR <--- See the full chart for more details
Though I always make fun of other pundits for doing this I'm going with the DGA nominees (del Toro, Gerwig, McDonagh, Nolan, and Peele) for a 100% transfer. Which, as we've said repeatedly, almost never happens. If the Academy's directorial branch kicks one of those people out, I'm hoping its McDonagh rather than Gerwig who seems most vulnerable given the genre of her film). Who is on the outside looking in. Before The Post got shaky in the precursors I would have said Spielberg but now I'm betting that diehard Sean Baker (The Florida Project) fans or diehard Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) fans are the ones that the five DGA nominees need to be looking over their shoulders and worrying about.
We haven't had an all first timers Best Director list in 20 years but if the DGA list transfers or if the list kicks one of them out for Baker or Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name) we finally have one again! (It's so hard to remember/believe that Chris Nolan has never been Oscar nominated for his direction but it is a true fact.)
BEST SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED AND ORIGINAL <--- See the chart for more details
What a mystery both of these categories remain! Somethings gotta give in Original Screenplay. All five of the presumed Best Picture leaders are "originals" but the final lineup can't hold all of them since at least one but possibly both The Big Sick and I Tonya will make it in. And that's not all. Previous Oscar nominees or winners for writing are also kicking around in the shape of Phantom Thread, The Post and Darkest Hour.
See the charts for the final and probably incorrect predictions and report back, won'tcha?
Reader Comments (34)
I was worried about Call Me By Your Name, but I'm a little more comfortable that it will nab a best picture nomination. While the film has detractors, those who love it are passionate about it. If the critics are any indication, take a look on Metacritic and their poll of top 10 lists. The film does not appear on as many top 10 lists as other films, but in terms of number one placements it's got a high share. Anyway, I'm being optimistic.
I think both Call me By Your Name and Get Out will not be nominated for Best Picture. I would bet on The Post and Phantom Thread instead.
Just putting this out there, why are scripts like I, Tonya (based on real interviews, real life people /events) or The Post (real life people, news articles , footage etc) in the original screenplay category. In my mind they make more sense as adapted.
No Guts No Glory: Call Me By Your Name will only get nods for Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song, and maybe Cinematography.
The Post will get Picture, Editing, and maybe Screenplay nods.
Michelle Williams will get in over Streep for Best Actress, Washington over Franco due to controversies. Plummer will also jump over the Call Me By Your Name guys for Supp Actor.
The Greatest Showman will only get a Song nomination.
The Big Sick will only get a Screenplay nod.
Gerwig will get dissed for Director for Paul Thomas Anderson.
There will only be 6 nominees for Picture: Dundirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards
None of this means I believe they should be dissed or nominated over others, but based off of guesses on how the Academy responds to previous award shows and their own feelings.
I don't see why people are surprised about Nolan's lack of nominations. He is a genre director. Comics, sci-fi. Dunkirk is his actual effort for the Oscar
Could I, Tonya score big tally nomination? Picture, Robbie, Janney, Screenplay, Editing, Costume, Hair/Makeup. It does feel like it peaks at the exactly right time. But I can also see it getting only two (the actresses). Same thing can be said for Mudbound but I wish they won’t go for Netflix’s barely-released-in-cinema scheme.
I fear the ‘rage’ from the media if Gerwig or Peele did not make the list. I can’t see they’re going for two debuts by actors.
Such a competitive and unpredictable year. Excited & nervous for the contenders I’m rooting for. Even locks aren’t locked.
Feels like this year could bring some big surprises. I think Phantom Thread and The Post do better with Oscar than they have with other awards bodies. I also think the Academy doesn't get over it's aversion to the horror genre and Get Out doesn't do nearly as well as some are expecting.
I think Spielberg is more likely than you think. And as much as I hate to say it, I think The Big Sick gets no nominations.
Cash - Holly Hunter seems the best shot Big Sick has but I agree that it could be shut out. I'm making a bold prediction that Leslie Manville sneaks in over the expected Hunter or Blige.
I agree with Pedro that "Get Out" will be the surprise snub in Best Picture. It's a wonderfully fun and entertaining film, but I don't understand why so many people think a horror film is going to score here. But I do think "Call Me By Your Name" will make it. And while I'm not necessarily predicting it, I do think Blade Runner 2049 will finish in the Top Ten.
I agree that The Post is a wildcard. It largely had to rely on screeners and I don't know if it gained much traction by the time that Oscar voting closed, since it opened wide on the same day as Oscar voting closed.
I also agree that there will be a stink if Peele or Gerwig is not nominated for best director.
I would be surprised if the Oscars deviate from the top 5 actresses: Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie, Ronan, Streep. People including Sasha Stone keep saying Streep may be left out, but I am not feeling that. That means a Jessica Chastain or Michelle Williams would be getting more votes, which I can't see at the moment but we will find out soon enough. If anything, that whole "she knew" movement seems like an Oscar smear campaign that did not go anywhere, and may have pushed Streep in.
Franco is also a giant wildcard. Would not be surprised if he is not nominated.
The Big Sick is sullying up your predictions.
Rami, I think because there is no specific source material to be adapting FROM. I, Tonya and The Post are about real people but not based on a memoir by Tonya Harding or a biography of Katherine Graham. If most of I, Tonya came from something like a lengthy Vanity Fair article or something then that would likely be adapted.
Conversely, Wonder Woman and Logan would be in adapted because Wolverine and Wonder Woman are fictional characters that were previously created by other people.
James -
I've also made many of the same predictions as you (on other sites). I also came up with 6 nominees for Best Picture - and the same 6 that you did!
I;m also predicting Michelle Williams is in because a) I really really really want it to be true - I thought she was absolutely outstanding and b) I think her whole outrageous salary story hit at the right time, during voting week, and it will resonate with many female members. The only difference is that I think it will be at the expense of Sally Hawkins. Just a hunch, but I think she'll be the Amy Adams WTF omission of this year. Never bet on Meryl Streep not getting nominated. Just ask Emma Thompson.
Wild Card Acting opinions
Actor - Franco and Kaluuya left our Hanks,Chalament,Oldman,Lewis,Washington do
Actress - No Streep but a Williams
S/Actor - Plummer,Rockwell,Dafoe,Harrelson & Stulbarg
S/Actress - Metcalf,Spencer,Manville,Janney & Blige
If The Post is nominated for Best Pic, Streep is in for Best Actress.
If The Post is not nominated for Best Pic, Streep is in for Best Actress. Her nominations have never been dependent on the overall success of her films. That The Post has as much awards consideration as it is is should be enough for her to get in. She is the MVP of the Pic. If Oscars want to honor or acknowledge The Post in any way - she is in.
Man I would LOVE to see the vote totals in the Best Actress category.... It's a nailbiter!
I think DARKEST HOUR could make the Best Picture line-up given it stars the Best Actor frontrunner and is being predicted for a number of craft nominations like Cinematography, Make-up and Score. Also possible are Costume Design, Production Design, Editing and even a Sound nomination. Add those in and Original Screenplay seems more than possible. Otherwise it could be looking at the most nominations without a Best Picture nomination.
Rami: Honestly, I'm in the camp of arguing for a third category, turning Screenplay into:
Original Fictional Screenplay, Adapted Fictional Screenplay AND True Story Screenplay.
I keep saying this, but I will not believe Get Out is in the running for Best Picture at the Oscars until they announce its name among the nominees. There is nothing about that film (other than being amazing, which is never enough) that appeals to what the Academy typically votes for. It's a horror film about racism with a black protagonist. Show me where the Academy has ever willingly gone there in the past. That's not even accounting for any of the voters who might feel they want to vote for something different after Moonlight won (the same way 12 Years A Slave got a lot of nominations and Selma got 2).
I want it. My biggest wish is for Get Out to get nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Original Screenplay. I'm still not convinced it's going to happen.
My second biggest wish is Lady Bird getting in for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay and, frankly, I think all of those are more likely than Get Out in the same categories except for Gerwig. She is a woman, after all, and the Academy ain't been too keen on nominating female directors in that category.
I have a hunch that Darkest Hour is going to do better than people think at the nominations. It's got the support of the British contingent in the Academy and it's also been quietly making decent money at the box, which suggests to me that it's well liked by the kind of older middle-class audience that has a lot of overlap with the Academy.
With the current system, I kind of like years when you can be pretty sure what the five best picture nominees would be if there were but five nominees.
My personal belief is that first time directors should RARELY get a nomination. Waiting for their sophomore effort should be considered strongly. There have been too many first time directors getting nominated, only to discover that they are bad directors attracted to shitty material (of which they had a large part in making or governing, resulting with the blue-print into derivative, hokey, amateurish nonsense), thus proving my point that voters should consider waiting for their follow-up.
Of course there are acceptions, (Orsen Welles) but I frankly would prefer not to be subjected to pap, souless crap by paint-by-number directors getting nominated for thoughtless, mediocre and lazy inept direction (thankfully these turds never get nominated again, but in retrospect, there must be a ton of voters who are embarrassed by those nominations. And they should be. It's unfathomable to me that David Cronenberg, Bertrand Tavernier, Olivier Assayas Kor-eda, John Sayles, Eric Rhomer, Spike Lee, Agnès Varda, Todd Hanes... I could go on and on...have never been nominated, but so many hacks (like the ones above) will forever be remembered for their Oscar nomination. It's beyond crass.
But I won't continue because it's too depressing when one delves deep into this duh! history. There are so many examples of undeserved nominations (which proved incessantly my point especially when you consider the the trajectory of their pointless careers).
Again, I think that an obvious masterpiece produced by a first time director should be considered for a nomination. But I still think that a second movie made by said director, is essential to determine whether or not the film was a fluke, or the zeigiest was favourable.
At any rate, that is my opinion, and la dee da. Later
Interesting theories and good writing.
I have this weird idea: If Baby Driver is such a strong possibility in editing, wouldn't it be that crazy if it gets a nod at best picture? I think that if there's an unexpected nominee at best picture it is Baby Driver.
Jorge, I haven't seen Baby. But to be considered in the running for Best Picture, it needs more than an editing nod. And what else could it be a candidate for? Sound mixing? Not enough.
Jorge: That would be a pleasant surprise, but I'm not sure I buy it. The closest comparison would be Selma, but that was also fairly clearly due to across the board sixth place support in A LOT (At the very least Actor, Director and Screenplay, but maybe also Supporting Actress and Cinematography) of categories. Baby Driver is pretty much the kind of movie that gets an editing nom without 6-10 Best Pic heat. (In my lifetime (starting 1990), those films with Editing noms but clearly not 6-10 heat would be these nine: The Hunt for Red October, The Commitments, Basic Instinct, Speed, Crimson Tide, Air Force One, The Matrix, The Bourne Ultimatum and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Films that didn't make the Best Picture "Top 5" that would have at least had a chance (some stronger than others) of making the 6-10 and have editing noms are these 20: Terminator 2: Judgment Day, The Player, In the Line of Fire, Hoop Dreams, Seven, Evita, Out of Sight, Wonder Boys, Memento, Black Hawk Down, City of God, Cold Mountain, Collateral, Cinderella Man, The Constant Gardener, Blood Diamond, Children of Men, United 93, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and The Dark Knight.)
Please for the love of God Tom Hanks! The Post outgrossed Jumanji yesterday. Never underestimate the public
I agreed w Nat's prediction on the directors, yes its rare tt DGA will trsf 5/5 to Oscars & the last time t happened was 2009 when there is ALSO a woman director & a black director in the mix (Deja Vu much?). But yes, I tink these 5 will make the cut, w Baker & Spielberg close behind..
Pic-wise, I tink there will be 10 nominees this year & they r likely:
1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Shape of Water
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) I Tonya
9) The Florida Project
10) The Big Sick
Darkest Hour & Phantom Thread might knock off no. 9 or 10, depends on the support all these 4 films r receiving.
Claran: i think your top 9 is correct. It is almost mathematically impossible for there to be 10 nominees. I also feel we are seriously underestimating Sean Baker in Best Director.
There is one film I think we’re underestimating and that is All the Money in the World. I’m not predicting it but Scott Feinberg - who is crazy savvy with Oscar and voters - has intimated that all the voters were watching their screeners and liking what they saw. I think it’s still a long shot but with perennial favorites like Ridley Scott and Michelle Williams + a juicy and thrilling storyline that the older and middle aged members of the Academy will remember, I do still think it’s a possibility in picture, directing, actress, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, and editing.
No Guts, No Glory:
Hugh Jackman gets nominated for Best Actor for Logan.
Those WGA and Scripter nominations prove people are watching the movie (plus it's been available on HBO through the voting week). The Franco news arrived in time to cut his votes short for a nomination. Who steps in? Not Washington or Gyllenhall, whose movies no one saw, but The Wolverine, one of the best reviewed lead performances of the year.
I assume you’re probably just trying not to get your hopes up, but I think Call Me By Your Name is safer than your analysis would suggest. I’d even guess it’s a safer bet than The Post, honestly. The only big miss it’s had was DGA, and that was never a certainty to begin with.
I also have this weird feeling that Nolan could be left out of Best Director yet again. I just don’t know if there’s really any passion for Dunkirk, like it feels like too much of an obligatory pick. It’ll get in for Picture just based on the different rules in that category, but I don’t think Nolan is a lock. At the very least, him being snubbed would be less surprising than, say, Ridley Scott being snubbed for The Martian 2 years ago.
@Michael R, u r right! I totally forgot abt the new preferential sys whr it is virtually impossible to have 10 nominees. In this case I tink the academy shld relook at the magical number for best pic n increase it, esp in yrs whr thr r an abundant o good films.
In this case, The Florida Project is at the most vulnerable spot, competing w The Big Sick, Darkest Hour n Phantom Thread.. All formidable players.