The Oscar Race Plot Keeps Thickening... or is it Thinning?
Wednesday, September 23, 2020 at 6:25PM by Nathaniel R
For those of you who are wondering why the Oscar charts are still not updated, here's a simple fact. Every time I go to work on them, something huge changes and I have to start over. I'm fully aware that other pundits keep making breathless pronouncements of what will actually WIN the Oscars but I just can't do that. We STILL have no real sense of what will actually open since Hollywood keeps clearing and resetting the chess board. The latest upheaval is that West Side Story, Steven Spielberg's remake of the Oscar-winning classic that didn't need to be remade, has moved back an entire year to December 2021. So now both of the big latinx musicals that were originally intended for 2020 have just essentially scrawled a one over the final zero on their original calendars with The Heights in summer 2021 and West Side Story for Christmas 2021...
In awards season terms late September and early October are when we meet many of the crucial competitors with everything having to be open by New Years Eve to be eligible. That's not the case this year. All of the precursors have followed Oscar's new calendar so we will surely get new Oscar-hopefuls showing up as late as February 2021. In short, we're not really spiritually in late September / early October of a normal Oscar race with two months of releases still to show up. Instead we're spiritually still in the summer movie season of an abnormal Oscar race with five months of the film year (such as it is) left to go. Consider this late August at best like we're still sifting through the summer releases and wondering which ones people will still care about a half year from now when they start voting. Half of a year from now!!! Nevertheless, the Oscar charts are being worked on and we're aiming for full roll out next week.
LATEST RELEASE DATE SHIFTS
- The Empty Man (from Dec 4th, 2020 to Oct 23rd, 2020)
- Death on the Nile (from Oct 23rd to December 18th, 2020)
- Wonder Woman (from Oct 2nd to December 25th, 2020... a lot of people think this means Dune will move from its December 18th date to sometime in 2021 but no announcement has been made yet)
- The King's Man (from Feb 26th, 2021 to Feb 12th, 2021)
Oscar Eligibility Cut-Off. Now We're in a New Oscar Year... - Black Widow (from November 6th to May 7th, 2021... which naturally sets off a chain reaction with future Marvel movies all moving further away)
- Shang-Chi (from May 7th, 2021 to July 9th, 2021)
- Deep Water (from Nov 13th, 2020 to Aug 13th, 2021)
- The Eternals (from Feb 12th, 2021 to November 5th, 2021)
- West Side Story (from Dec 18th, 2020 to December 10th, 2021)
- Greenland (from Jul 29th, 2020 to TBA 2021)
- Candyman (from Oct 16th to TBA 2021
P.S. Now I'm (literally) off to watch Nomadland and Trial of the Chicago 7 so that I can get "caught up" even though it feels like movies are never coming back. *cries hysterically*
Reader Comments (43)
I'll just repeat what I said on twitter...All these postponed releases actually make me excited for the next Oscars.
Unlike a lot of people, I think the absence of a great many prestige movies makes for a very interesting race. Maybe we'll finally get more than a single female director nominated in one year, for example. We could have one of the best Oscar lineups ever with just the pictures that have already been seen in 2020.
Would it be that tragic to have an Academy Awards ceremony with reduced big studio presence and less traditional choices? I don't think so.
With this new eligibility window, something to consider is whether Sundance in January will play a larger role in the Oscar season this year than usual. Perhaps Berlin as well.
Just a strange feeling. The first few months of COVID-19, I kind of enjoyed shutting the world out and catching up with shows I never would have bothered to watch. But I hardly caught up with any "new" movies, nor did I bother to catch those I missed in theaters from earlier this year.
I'm more behind than ever before and I don't...care? I'm not sure. Maybe it's the malaise of the times, and the lack of opportunity to see a movie in the theater means the experience won't be the same. But this is the first year since I've been watching movies where I haven't bothered to "keep up" with the critically acclaimed/buzzworthy new releases. I'm okay with that, and I'm worried that I'm okay with it, because if/when theaters do come back in NYC, will I be completely over it?
This year's nominees will be the weirdest bunch of nominees ever. There's nothing to choose from!! The Invisible Man might get 14 nominations at this point due to no competition LOL
WST and In the Height in the same year it's very bad news. I feel they will compete and be compared for no reason.
Peggy -- but they were originally going to compete this year.
Marty -- i think what's more likely is that something baity will just get like 20 nominations. lol.
Joseph -- i dont worry about this for myself but i do worry about it with film culture. Cinephiles were so outnumbered by couch potatoes anyway that I worry it will be hard to get film culture going again.
Claudio -- theoretically i agree and at the beginning of the year said similar things but now I'm afraid all it will mean is that something super traditional like a courtroom drama (trial of the chicago 7) will just get like 20 nominations. Oscar voters dont tend to be adventurous so i'm not sure they're really like "hmmm. let me look around. I heard "First Cow" and "Shirley" were good..."
I feel like the dates will continue to be weird considering it's such a weird year. My predictions are mostly focused on festival plays and recently released trailers. Not sure I'm betting on much else, but there's still plenty to get excited to see.
NATHANIEL R -- I don't know. Maybe I'm too foolishly optimistic, but I don't think film culture is in danger of disappearing. It might change, I grant you that. However, I don't find that it's stopped going in the meantime - this very site and the conversations on this comment section are proof that it's still alive and going. Why must we be pervasively afraid of change in regards to moviedom and awards?
Looking at film history, we can see that there have been countless moments of cultural, social, and technological adjustment that made people panic. Cinema and its admirers still lived on nonetheless. Hollywood, in particular, has survived censorship, the advent of the talkies, of color film, many ephemerous fads, and who knows how many scandals and political schisms - yet, it's still here.
Film culture thrives, both during times of propserity and adversity. Studying the history of Portuguese cinema, for instance, one finds that the first publications and organizations devoted to the love of cinema sprouted during some of the most repressive years of our fascist dictatorship. It was illegal to own and circulate certain films. You could be tortured and imprisoned for it. Still, the culture of cinephilia continued, and we even had our own New Wave happening at the margins of state-sponsored propaganda. If it survived that, it's going to survive streaming in the age of COVID, VOD releases, and the rise of couch potatoes over cinephiles.
Regarding the Oscars, they'll make disappointing choices. They always do. However, they often make some brilliant ones amidst the mediocrity too. The same year, they'll give GREEN BOOK and BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY a shitload of prizes, and honor Spike Lee, Ruth E. Carter, Alfonso Cuarón, THE FAVOURITE, IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK, etc. We'll have some of those good things happening in the next Oscars, I'm sure of it. Maybe, because of all this, some little movie will score one inspired nod that it wouldn't have gotten otherwise. I think that's good and reason enough to be optimistic. EVEN if we have to endure a prestigious Netflix production becoming the most nominated movie of all-time.
Also, critics groups and prognosticators have shown that they hold influence over what films the Academy ends up considering. I don't think PARASITE would have gotten that far last year if it wasn't so openly celebrated by publications like this blog and many other bigger sites. I look around social media and see people despairing over a lack of contenders, saying there should be no Oscars or that it won't be the same, it won't feel as exciting. If we all think and write it so, then I do fear we'll be typing self-fullfilling prophecies.
I'm sorry if I sound combative or if I'm a bit too impassionate about my oppinion. I don't mean to antagonize anyone or to make others feel invalidated about their fears. Personally, I'm trying to be hopeful and to not give into the panic.
I understand your fears and hope that that auspicious double feature of NOMADLAND and TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 will dull some of the pain caused by this multifaceted crisis.
Marty -- For me, weird is good which is maybe why I'm being so bullishly optimistic about it all. When some people complain about weak Oscar fields like Best Actress 1975, I understand their frustration but end up loving those lineups for their unashamed oddity.
Cancelling is off the table?
Chin up, Nathaniel! Movies are coming back! Not only is it our art form of choice ... but it’s also a business. They’ll always be around ... even though options are slim right now.
Speaking of - I choose what new films I watch based on your review page! Be sure to update when you’re back from the movies. ;)
All that said, I completely get why it's hard, or impossible, to be optimistic considering everything happening right now. Especially, in America. I'm genuinely sorry if my previous comments were annoying. I don't mean to add to the stress.
LOL I love your intensitivity Claudio. And yup, weird is good
I'm with Claudio. This deeply unpredictable year could lead to some incredibly exciting choices from the Academy.
Really interested to see how the season plays out. I'm especially interested in how blockbuster heavy categories like visual Effects play out without the obvious choices.
That said can totally understand Nathaniel R's frustration - how can you possibly make predictions when the eligibility list keeps fundamentally changing.
Claudio -- i think i've been misunderstood. because I agree with so much of what you're saying so i'm not sure how you felt you were being combative. I was just venting... particularly about punditry and missing the movies (and i am worried about cinephiles. So many people i thought were really into the movies have expressed utter disdain about going back to them or just indifference. Maybe it's a protection mechanism to not be sad that theyr'e gone?
my post really was fundamentally about the combination of frustration over punditry -- we do not need to be predicting winners already! -- and deeply missing going to the movies, not the dearth of good movies (i've seen some quality stuff) or despair over the oscars themselves (i will always love the oscars... even when they disappoint me).
How about we just skip the Oscars and make it a 2020-2021 thing just once due to this fucking pandemic?
@Nathaniel
I think those disdainful cinephiles you speak of are temporarily caught up in the political maelstrom surrounding COVID-19. Because everything is black/white politicized in 2020, those folks who consider going to the movies to be a sin right now are talking them down. I mean, I'm not too keen on going right now either, but people are very emotional at the moment, particularly on Twitter (actually, always on Twitter). Filmmakers and studios should not be denigrated for trying to support movie theaters, ditto the movie theaters themselves for trying to get by, but you see all of that and more in certain corners of social media.
I don't know who's right, Claudio or Nathaniel, but I think there's a real CHANCE Claudio could be right. On the other hand, Nathaniel may be and we could be looking at double Oscar winner, Kenneth Branagh--please no, but... could be.
I hope instead we see FIRST COW and BACURAU, or MARTIN EDEN and THE WILD GOOSE LAKE. It will probably be something in between, with FIRST COW battling it out with MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS.
I would recommend they cancel. There is really nothing to celebrate for 2020. They would have a bunch of nominees for movies that no one saw. I also agree with Nathaniel that moviegoing seems threatened on a long-term basis. We are very far away from people sitting in theatres again, and why would they want to after being able to stream whatever they want for a couple of years. Especially if it means you have to go to a theater and wear a mask. Pass. Something else I've noticed is that I have less patience to watch a full or challenging film on streaming, because of the ratio aspect. Welcome to the digital experience.
One suggestion...
why don't you just change, for this year, the criteria for updating your charts, using ONLY what it has been already screened, and is actually 100% warranted distribution and elegibility on time for Oscar consideration (meaning streaming services films, specially from Netflix)?
We all know that unless huge surprise, Mank and The Trial of the Chicago Seven are already in competition and building up their awards campaigning (given what I see, if I was Netflix I would move Mank to 2021 so it wouldn't eventually derrail the chances of Chicago Seven and Da 5 Bloods to be HUGE at the Oscars 2020-1). But it seems that while Nomadland is aiming to a sweep of Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay and a couple more... Netflix is going to be the big dominator of the noms with 3 films - at least - aiming to Best Picture and Best Director nominations with really strong chances, and with all 3 likely to get 5+ nominations.
We never know what movies will really be released in any given year. Just move on and make your predictions 🙄
NATHANIEL R -- Maybe I'm just spending too much time on social media. On Twitter, it seems everything can be seen as a combative rebuttal and I've been muted a couple of times even though I was trying to be polite. Because of that, I overcompensate now, afraid I might be annoying people. Glad you didn't feel wronged by my LONG comment.
I do think you might be right about it being a bit of a defensive mechanism. It's easy to empathize with such cinephiles when going to the cinema right now can be such a dangerous endeavor, both for moviegoers and the people they're subsequently in contact with. From personal experience, I know it's a stressful ordeal, even with a lot of preventive measures.
Also, I completely get what you mean about the hastiness of punditry. Why are people predicting winners already?!?
Honestly Smackdowns, classic movie coverage and anything by Abe, Juan or especially Claudio (duh) are the real draws to this site. I honestly forget to check the charts and maybe just give them one read after a couple or award shows and one after nominations. So literally it ain't no big deal.
They should just make it a combined 2020/2021 season due to extraordinary circumstances if the film industry are too scared to release anything.
When will HILLBILLY ELEGY finally set a date?!
I'm with Cláudio. These were the best Emmys in years (IMO at least) because the voters actually appeared to take the time to watch the nominees. There's no reason to believe the Oscars won't be the same.
There have been some great films released in 2020 with plenty of enticing titles on the way. Nathaniel, I know you were enthused about West Side Story, but it was basically blip on the radar for me. In the Heights felt much more exciting and relevant, and I wouldn't want to see that movie until I felt safe to go back to a theater anyway.
Andrew -- if Netflix is wise (Oscar-speakign) they'll reschedule everything for January or February since their movies have such short discussion windows.
The T -- internet traffic does not agree with you ;) The charts have always been one of the most popular features on the site.
Which movies are in the conversation right now (people watched):
Ammonite
First Cow
Nomadland
Shirley
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
The Father
One Night in Miami
Anyone else?????
Johan - Da 5 Bloods and Pieces of a Woman. I wish the Assistant were on the list, but that's probably unrealistic.
@Johan For good or bad, people are talking, well, joking (seemingly bitterly), about THE INVISIBLE MAN getting nominated for Best Picture and Elisabeth Moss actually winning (maybe) Best Actress. Maybe some of that has to do with how early it came out, but honestly, worse films have been nominated for Best Picture (CIDER HOUSE RULES) and weaker performances (Bullock--THE BLIND SIDE) have won Academy Awards for acting. (We may not like Moss because she's a Scientologist and may love Bullock because she's, well, f-ing lovable, but I'm talking performance quality here.) Seriously. Back when people were just discussing INVISIBLE MAN as a film, everyone loved it. Now it's considered to be the outrageous potential beneficiary of a bunch of film awards it doesn’t deserve due to COVID. Normally, many of us would be ecstatic at the thought of an old fashioned genre film going the distance to the Academy Awards as a multiple nominee, if not a sweep-the-categories winner. Spoiler alert: INVISIBLE has almost no chance of sweeping the categories. It might take Actress and screenplay--maybe, only maybe. TENANT will sweep the technical awards--though hopefully not sound. When will the Oscars realize a film with inaudible important dialogue is a film with bad sound?
@Jules Merci! And I forgot The Trial of Chicago 7.
@Dan I almost out The Invisible Man in the list, but... You have already explained why. Merci!
On the international field, are this movies the conversation or we have more?
Night of the Kings - Ivory Cost
Never Gonna Snow Again - Germany
The Disciple - India
Apples - Greece
Another Round - Denmark
There is no Evil - Iran
Memory House - Brazil
Anyone else???
Does anyone know when Promising Young Woman is going to be released??? No one ever mentions it with updated release info...
@Johan
"Listen" (Portugal)
"Never Gonna Snow Again" (Poland)
And "Minari" at some point, since it seems to be a foreign language American production
Ed -- From what I've been told and seen, Ana Rocha de Sousa's LISTEN has a considerable amount of dialogue in English. Because of that, I'm not sure it would be eligible in this category.
Chloe Zhao and Regina King nominated for best director would be awesome.
As would AND THEN WE DANCED nominated for best picture and actor (that one way less likely)
I would be on board for skipping Oscars this year and then have awards next year celebrate the 2020-2021 seasons all at once. Expand the nominations- have 2 winners. Would love to have 10 best actress nominations from 2020-2021 and see 2 win! And.... it could still be a live gathered event. The Emmy’s were ok... just not sure if I want to watch the Oscars that way.
Jesus. Have the Oscars. There are worthy potential winners. A mediocre big-budget Oscar bait film like may win, like THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO SEVEN, but they've won before. (Remember SPOTLIGHT or THE KING'S SPEECH?) A little indie or foreign language film may win just as MOONLIGHT and PARASITE deservedly won. If people don't like the idea of a socially distanced Oscar ceremony, they don't have to watch it. I'm hoping to see people like Kelly Reinhardt and
Francis Lee actually get a shot against Christopher Nolan this year. It's not going to happen if they combine two years together.
The Oscars are happening. Netflix's scheduled releases during the eligibility period alone can comfortably fill half of an 8-Best Picture field, or most of a 5-field if that's the way they go. Whether that's something you *want* is a different story, but there will be plenty to go around for a completely reasonable lineup in all categories.
Moreover, postponing them could possibly make things even worse because with production ground to a halt and no end to COVID in sight, lord knows what we'll get next year or in 2022. Better gather these rosebuds while we may.
Reality check. It's called show BUSINESS. The Oscars are there to build revenue in the industry. We can all discuss the possibility of cancelation till we are blue in the face. Movie makers are not going to cancel what makes them green in the wallet!
I think a lot of us are suffering from low grade depression. The months of closed movie theaters have left us deeply mourning. We can try to recreate the experience at home, but a 72 inch television, urine on our bathroom floor, someone kicking our La-Z-Boy, and a generously served soda in a well rinsed mop pail just isn't the same.
I am holding out hope that the New York Film Critics Circle will announce their awards as scheduled on December 18. That's the impetus to get us over our collective doldrums and back to firing on all cylinders. Those overpaid cinéastes will rouse our outrage and bolster our FYCs for the latest Oscar contenders.
The Oscars are absolutely happening - I would be genuinely surprised if they didn’t.
We will just have a ceremony where Netflix dominates the awards - which could shake up the Oscars for generations, honestly.
One Night in Miami / Chicago 7 / Mank / Da 5 Bloods
Nomadland and maybe News of the World and Dune for theatrical releases (if the studios stick to their guns). Also The Father, with Hopkins and Colman. Rashida Jones and Bill Murray have also gotten positive notices for Sofia Coppola’s On the Rocks (A24/Apple TV+). And, Ammonite. I have a feeling Neon may pull a Netflix, however, and stick this in a few theatres before releasing it on Hulu. In other words, even though there will not be as many films to pull from, the quality is still there.
And Focus Features needs to campaign the shit out of early release films like Emma. and Never Rarely Sometimes Always. In a year like this, I think they could make a dent in the awards race. Ditto with Universal and The Invisible Man.
I get that! I love the Oscars. And as a Streep fan, with movies on HBO Max and Netflix this year,great! I am just afraid, with the current conditions and movies not available/ or limited to general population, that any winners this year will be considered default winners.
Jamie, I understand that fear, but I don't think this is really something to worry about. I'm a sportswriter and I had to deal with a depleted US Open tennis field at the start of the event. By the end of the event, the last few rounds were filled with top players, worthy champions were crowned, and anyone who wishes to denigrate their achievements would have to go out of their way to do so. Will heavily invested followers do that? -- Yes -- but it will be a tremendously small minority.
People like us who post on these boards, we feel like a loud bunch, but in the end our nitpicking is also a small minority. Whoever gets nominated or wins for 2020 will never feel like their achievement was unworthy.
We will start with a depleted field here too, but the thing about the Oscars is that on nomination day, BAM, we go right to the championship rounds, and that's all that most history will care about. Usually, 2% of the field gets nominated. This year, it's gonna be more like 5%. But the bottom line is what the Academy decides is the cream of the crop will be rewarded, and at the end of the day, history will reflect that without any qualms.
I can see that JJ. Thanks!