Oscar Chart: Best Supporting Actor's potential spoilers
Tuesday, December 28, 2021 at 5:16PM by Nathaniel R
We live in fear of a Jared Leto nomination. Do you?
When we last dove deep into Best Supporting Actor just over a month ago it felt like there were 10-20 contenders still in the conversation. Sadly once the critics began to throw their weight entirely behind just two contender (Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog and Troy Kotsur in CODA) and the Globes and the Critics Choice came up with almost identical lists (Kodi + Troy + Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan from Belfast) the race began to look unlike a race at all but more of a slow waiting game until the Oscar nominations which are still five weeks away.
Is there reason to hope for the race to widen again? We'd like to think so...
SAG nominations are next on January 12th and we are crossing our fingers for a major surprise though we're not exactly expecting one. SAG voters sometimes throw curveballs but not usually for interesting on-the-cusp choices. The Globes embraced Ben Affleck from The Tender Bar, and Critics Choice (who always choose more than five to improve their Oscar prediction odds) went with Jared Leto in House of Gucci and J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos) suggesting a tiny bit of wiggle room in "consensus" feeling... but is there enough of it? Or will SAG also choose Jared Leto as that seems like a performance just bad enough to prove irresistible to awards voters.
In short, will these next five weeks matter at all? Theoretically five weeks is a lot of time for collective opinion to shift.
Though the five in the presumed lead (Dornan, Hinds, Kotsur, Smit-McPhee, and arguably Jared Leto from House of Gucci) might prove hard to topple, that isn't an unassailable quintet. Remove Leto's Razzie-worthy showboating (and we sure hope they do) and you've instantly improved whatever shortlist might come our way on February 8th when the Oscar nominations are announced.
POTENTIAL SPOILERS THAT STILL FEEL POSSIBLE... SHUT UP, LET US DREAM!
Mike Faist, who we just spoke with, is an intriguing and worthy option for voters, but will West Side Story have enough overall momentum to get voters to think just slightly outside of the pre-ordained "Anita" box when it comes to the acting? Anita is always the awards magnet role from that show but when someone breaks out in a role ("Riff") that's usually not the standout role, shouldn't we collectively pay attention? That means it's the actor elevating it, not the role doing half the work! If he is nominated you will surely see a lot of rejoicing online.
Jon Bernthal (King Richard) is well positioned career-wise to capitalize on industry goodwill and he's in a picture that everyone presumes will do very well on Oscar nomination morning. So why isn't there more buzz? It's easy to picture him as a "surprise" in the final lineup due to the coattails effect but it's also easy to not picture that.
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) is also well positioned to show up, even as a last minute surprise with no precursors. He's a well respected actor, the Academy enjoys him (4 acting nominations already), and he's in a movie that they'll surely see. But will they like it as much as critics do? On the other hand it's possible that too many influencers have dismissed this role as a "cameo" for voters to take it seriously. Never mind that he does more with two long scenes than many nominated actors have done with lots of screen time.
Finally, the Critics Choice cited J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) and, like Bernthal, he's easy to picture as a nominee, especially due to his alternating scenes of wise-cracking and offering sage advice. You might be hard pressed to find someone who'd name that role, which he could do in his sleep, as the Best acting of the year but there are always performances like that in the mix. What's more, if voters aren't watching a lot of movies, and they love what Nicole Kidman is selling as Lucille Ball, that may be enough to pull him in with her given that they both get such an "Oscar clip" out of their only scene alone together.
THE OTHER LONGSHOTS WOULD NOW REQUIRE A MIRACLE
Why couldn't critics let Kodi SMit-McPhee go for even a second to boost the prospects of really stellar supporting category aimed performances like Robin De Jesus (tick, tick...BOOM!) or Colman Domingo (Zola), or Woody Norman (C'mon C'mon), Jesse Plemons (Power of the Dog) Vincent Lindon (Titane), or Jason Isaacs (Mass)? It's one of the great mysteries of each awards seasons that critics groups prefer to rubber stamp each others choices rather than spread the wealth. We love Kodi Smit-McPhee's work, too, don't misunderstand. But it's fairly rare -- exceedingly once a decade rare even -- for one performance to tower so far above others that it's not worth throwing the prizes around given the blessed surplus of acting talent in today's cinema.
Revised Oscar Charts
Best Supporting Actor
Best International Feature Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Reader Comments (25)
As long as Leto isn't nominated, I'll be satisfied, though it's hard to see why anyone would be that enthusiastic about Hinds or Dornan, doing totally solid work.
I think Plemons could be in. To be in a Best Picture nominee in every year from 2015-2021 except for 2016, in which he got an Independent Spirit Award nomination? That's a huge deal. The industry will want to recognize him, and he might sneak in Stanfield-style, minus the category fraud.
The one performance in DON'T LOOK UP that totally delighted me was Mark Rylance, but I doubt he'll make it to the final five. Is ANYBODY talking about him?
Still hoping it comes down to Kodi Smit-McPhee v. Mike Faist and that one or the other gets it.
I also thought of Plemons as Lakeith from last year. I think that could totally happen.
And although I know it's early, I think the win is going to be Smit-McPhee's. It's such a rewardable character and I think that, just like in the film, he'll get the last laugh.
@ Dan H.
This year's contenders are for the most part more polarizing than I'm accustomed to. For example, read I somewhere this morning (Awards Daily?) that someone considers Rylance the absolute worst in show in Don't Look Up. As with just about everything else this season, I take that with a grain of salt. I haven't seen the movie yet, but I can't imagine Rylance ever being the worst.
While I'm equally horrified by the thought of a Jared Leto nomination, I'd argue that there might be less reason for fear this season than last. It made sense that the Globes and SAG cited Leto last year, as it probably felt important to have Oscar-y names for the "pandemic Oscars" even if they weren't among the year's best in their categories (Close in "Hillbilly Elegy," Oldman in "Mank"). But the Academy seemed to go *out of its way* to avoid nominating Leto last year, collectively preferring Stanfield (campaigned for as a lead) and the hugely deserving but Globe- and SAG-ignored Paul Raci. Truly terrible performances of the kind Leto gives in "Gucci" only very rarely get nominated. I'm predicting that most voters will rubber-stamp Smit-McPhee, Hinds, Kotsur, and maybe Dornan, and will then realize they have way-better options than Leto.
McPhee and Kotsur are locks with Hinds looking very likely though nothing that special once you've seen the film,endearing and solid but the role is as old time sickly grandfather giving sage advice,personally I felt Dornan was better but they tend to look over pretty boys,he'd make a great Bond though.
If they love WSS then I think Faist is in if they also LP then Copper could push out Dornan.
If Leto happens would it be one of the worst noms ever,I ask because I haven't seen the film.
I think people are overenthusiastic about BTR so no to Simmons.
I am as hung up as anyone on the Passing ladies but why is there no talk of Andre Holland in Supporting Actor as he is more than worthy.
I'd like to see a Garfield double nom but he's arguably a Lead in TEOTF.
Wait wait wait.... You're calling Woody Norman a supporting performance?? Also Lindon in TITANE is surely a lead.
You can make a case study on how to push for attention by comparing Jamie Dornan and Jesse Plemons. Both are up against a more "sure thing" performance for their film, but double nominations were easily within the realm of possibility. Focus Features went all in for Dornan, pushing him early and he's been campaigning hard. As you mention, Plemons doesn't appear to be on the circuit at all. They could have had husband/wife nominations but just didn't appear to try.
I'd predict Faist and Bernthal over Kotsur and Leto at this point.
I've been looking at nomination totals and the thing that intrigues me most is not specifically that there are fewer films nominated (which is true, but not drastically so), but the stratification in what does get nominated. If you go above/below the line, you'll notice we now see FEWER films nominated for above the title work (director/acting/screenplay) but more films nominated for below the title work (as compared to before the expansion). It's hard to tell how much AMPAS is at fault for that, though, given the stratification in Hollywood filmmaking that sorta happened around that point
Jonathan -- no, *i* am not calling Woody Norman supporting. He is 100% a lead. I am just mentioning him as a much better option for "supporting aimed" performances (since that's how he's being campaigned.)
as for Vincent Lindon. i confess i'm confused about why people are so adamant that he's a lead. it seemed like a borderline role to me when i watched it (he doesn't show up for a half an hour, right?) but i dont really wanna rewatch the movie to find out. Thought he was GREAT though in that movie.
@Working stiff I dunno. People's opinions are all over the map. I just watched DON'T LOOK UP today and the only think I really liked in it was Rylance in a brilliant Elon Musk send up. I actually felt all the acting was pretty good, but it is one of those snarky films that seems to exist to make liberals feel smugly superior to everyone else just for being "woke" to the issues.
I also don't get the Jon Bernthal love. His work in KING RICHARD seems like the textbook definition of adequate.
Good post and I will keep my eyes on the possible spoilers. Also for your next Oscar Chart can you do one of the visual categories please?
@nathaniel, I’d call Lindon a borderline case—I think you can reasonably put him in either lead or supporting.
Also, re: the other Jonathan’s point above about Woody Norman, prognostication isn’t the same as preference (or even factual observation!). We should all realize by now that the academy isn’t always going to hew close to reality when it comes to accurately categorizing actors, but that doesn’t mean Nathaniel has abandoned his post as the internet’s leading category fraud warrior :)
“when someone breaks out in a role ("Riff") that's usually not the standout role, shouldn't we collectively pay attention? That means it's the actor elevating it, not the role doing half the work!”
Mike Faist = Florence Pugh in Little Women. If only the critics had helped him out :(
At the start of the season, I really thought Richard Jenkins was winning this award for The Humans, which is a bit ironic considering that role was originated by Reed Birney, also in contention for Mass.
I really think Jesse Plemons could surprise here on Oscar morning.
@Dan H.- agree. Rylance should be in discussion and also Streep. They've nominated her every time she've farted and now that she finally had a character that everybody can see how she enjoyed it no one is talking
Meryl Streep doesn't need any more Oscar nominations until she does something truly noteworthy. I found her work in Don't Look Up cartoonish and annoying (Rylance and Hill as well).
Rylance was the only good thing about Don't Look Up. His character was the only part of the "satire" that worked, and I think that is probably due to his performance. I wouldn't nominate anything from that film for an Oscar, though.
I'm not horrified at all by a Jared Leto nomination. He merits a nod a lot more than anyone from the mediocre, boring, and forgettable Belfast. As if 100 other actors couldn't have played those roles!
At this point I'm predicting two Belfast guys + two Power of the Dog guys + Troy Kotsur. Even though that obviously feels wrong it's just that no other contenders feel strong enough lol. Faist, JK Simmons, Jason Isaacs and others could maybe have a late surge with a SAG nom but as of now it just feels like the buzz isn't there
If CODA makes SAG ensemble then Best Picture I could see Kotsur winning over Kodi (as much as I like his performance), since he could have a stronger narrative while Power of the Dog has its fair share of naysayers
I don't think Leto is as bad as Nathaniel thinks, but he's definitely a lot less than good. It's when he starts to be...funny, let's say, that he becomes ridiculous. Tho I blame a lot of that on Ridley Scott. Scott didn't realize that the Leto character made no sense?
Paul wasn't so ridiculous looking. The actual person, I mean. The movie just uses him as a sad sack for comedy. Even his big confrontation is negatively affected by his ridiculous dialogue.
But let's give Pacino some credit. All this talk of him overselling, as usual, is off. He and Driver are the best things in the film, tho Gaga is actually quite good in the first half.
What I'm really saying: Jared Leto can't be on a single ballot I'll take seriously.
Jonah Hill was actually my favorite part of DLU (a big middle finger to Don Jr) and they’ve nominated him twice before…Just saying. Also…don’t count out a surprise nomination for Timothy Spall. They’ll all see Spencer (for KS), they owe him, and he’s probably the best part of the movie.
If somehow voters see WILD INDIAN, I’d love to see Chaske Spencer be a surprise nom. Maybe a win at the Independent Spirit Awards could boost his visibility?
I liked HOG a lot more than most people. I thought Lady Gaga was sensational. Leto went for broke in HOG. But sometimes when you go for broke, you break. He broke. His performance was terrible. If he gets in over Birney, Isaacs, Faist, et al...well, it'd be a real shame.
My fear is that Leto will get just enough #1 or #2 votes on the ballot to secure a nomination. Y'know, from the voters wowed by his disappearance into the role or some such nonsense. Oh well.
Leto is sublime
I just saw West Side Story. Mike Faist would be a worthy nominee!