Oscar Volley: Supporting Actor. Who is in third, fourth, and fifth?
Tuesday, February 1, 2022 at 7:00PM Oscar Volleys continue with Eric Blume and Ben Miller discussing Best Supporting Actor.
Eric Blume: Happy to reteaming with you, Ben, to discuss that woebegone category of Best Supporting Actor. Nobody in the running can touch what Kodi Smit-McPhee accomplishes in The Power of the Dog, a bravura combination of sleight-of-hand and lived-in work. The movie feels like an instant classic. Kodi delivers the gift of making you want to re-watch his performances instantly to see his choices in a new context when he unfurls the full characterization. There's depth and artistry to this performance, while appearing effortless: it's a stunning piece of acting. But he's not the only lock...
Troy Kotsur's name will also be called out and he's a worthy nominee, too. It's a deeply felt performance which masks the afterschool special-level schematics of the weak script. I liked CODA much less than you did, because I felt there wasn't any real complexity to the characters or situations: everything is mapped out for the audience in very simple terms. That said, despite the fact that the performances exist on the one-emotion-at-a-time level, those emotions are rendered truthfully and effectively by the whole cast and Kotsur shines brightest. Ben, do you think anyone else is a lock?
Ben Miller: Those are the only two. I agree with everything you said about Smit-McPhee. Subverting of expectations is a huge factor in the brilliance of his performance and he doesn't miss a beat. Kotsur is the emotional center of a probable Best Picture nominee (and he's great), so he also makes total sense. What's more he fits into a niche that the Academy loves. He's this year's super un-famous actor that gave a great performance but is probably a one-and-done. Much like Barkhad Abdi, June Squib, or Paul Raci from recent years. Win-wise, I think it's a race between those two only.
As for who is running in third, I would probably land on Bradley Cooper.
Enough people are passionate about Licorice Pizza and the voters will see him as the most viable acting candidate from that cast. Plus, he is SO memorable in a good way. I'm not gonna say he's a lock, but I feel better about him than the other ...[checks notes]... 10 potential candidates for the last two spots.
I know we are tiptoeing around it, so let's not avoid it any longer. Let's talk Jared Leto...
Eric Blume: My mother always said if you don't have anything nice to say...
Actors just sometimes cannot resist big hamminess, and I guess some of the actors who vote think, "Wow, I wish I would have the courage to go that big!"? I know a lot of actors who vote for industry awards, and actors often tend to vote for other actors in relation to themselves: What would I have done with that role? What did they do that's so special? Could i see their bag of tricks?" etcetera. Sometimes actors just like other actors who look like they're having a good time. I don't know, that's the only explanation I have for the Jared Leto of it all. I won't even comment on the gay tragedy that is Jared Leto looking like Jeffrey Tambor. I think in the end, Leto will just miss out on the nomination like he did last year.
It is crazy that, more than any year I can think of, there are as you said, easily ten to a dozen men who could fill those remaining three slots. I could see a scenario where both Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan get in for Belfast, or only one of them, or neither of them! I tend to agree with you on Bradley Cooper. In this weak-ish field -- there are a lot of contenders but few that feel undeniable -- I think he's in. Again, actors vote in relation to themselves. Every actor in Hollywood wishes they could have seven showcase minutes in a Paul Thomas Anderson film and will feel that Cooper does the most anyone could possibly do with those seven minutes.
I still think voters are resistant to Ben Affleck as an actor, so I don't seem him getting in for The Tender Bar despite some precursor love. I guess the other guys' chances are based on how well the films are loved overall? Like, I could see JK Simmons getting in for his could-do-it-in-my-sleep-and-I-did work in Being the Ricardos. Mike Faist could surprise if they love West Side Story (which I don't think they particularly do). Or Jesse Plemons if they really really love The Power of the Dog (which I think they do).
Who do you see as 'next in line' beyond the top three and who are your favourites?
Ben Miller: I hate to say it, but the lack of passion overall makes me think Jared Leto and Ciaran Hinds are the most probable slot-fillers. I don't know why the Academy doesn't like pretty men being handsome, but I have less belief in Jamie Dornan from Belfast than I do in Faist or Simmons. If Belfast is going to be in across the board, I find it difficult to believe Balfe would be the only nominee. What happened to the Hinds momentum? If you would have asked me in November, I thought he would be the winner. The Belfast backlash is real.
As far as my own favorites, someone will have to explain to me why Mass is getting nowhere with guilds. Jason Isaacs gave my far-and-away favorite male performance of 2021 and he hasn't sniffed anything anywhere. I'm not greedy, I'll take Reed Birney or either Ann Dowd or Martha Plimpton, if I can't have him. Or, if I can't have anyone from Mass, I would like to point out that Vincent Lindon (Titane) and Anders Danielsen Lie (The Worst Person in the World) gave two of the greatest performances of 2021.
Let me ask you a different question. Let's say Smith-McPhee/Kotsur/Cooper are safe. Of the actual 10 or so other contenders, which two would you prefer?
Eric Blume: Ben, I agree with you one hundred percent plus about Jason Isaacs. He's my personal number two this year, and it's absurd that he isn't locked up.
The four actors in Mass come at this text with such clearly defined characters and inspired motivations, it's the fundamentals of acting: objective, intention, obstacle. Isaacs in particular surprises in the way real humans surprise. I also think if he were in the race, we'd have more than just a Smith-McPhee/Kotsur race on our hands (he'd add a 'what a thrill' Marcia Gay Harden surprise element to the proceedings). Reed Birney has a little less to do, but he's so direct with his characterization. He plays that man as someone who believes he has faced it to the point of memorizing the victims' names, with no intention to unravel the feelings behind it, and no desire whatsoever to be in that room (I felt he was doing it strictly for legal reasons). All the Mass actors deserved a better shake this year.
Wow, a nomination for Lindon or Danielsen Lie would be incredible, but those would be massive shockers. Both lend so much to their respective films. I personally prefer Jamie Dornan's performance to Ciaran Hinds in Belfast and from the field of more probably nominees I wouldn't be angry at either gent finding themselves inside the final five.
So to answer your original question, if I had two personal choices to add to the safe three we're identifying, I'd go with Jason Isaacs for sure, and then for a fun surprise, Robin de Jesus. He's a journeyman actor whose career could really use the nomination, and while I don't necessarily think he's doing genius work I am passionate about tick, Tick...BOOM! and would like to see it score some nominations. I thought what he found with Andrew Garfield felt like the relationships I have with my straight New York City friends, and there's just something about de Jesus that I really love. Mike Faist would be a close runner-up for me.
Same question to you. If you could choose the last two spots...
Ben Miller: If it were entirely up to me, I'd give one to Colman Domingo for Zola, maybe the funniest and craziest performances of the year. I refer to my own tweet.
Every choice Colman Domingo makes in Zola is completely insane and absolutely correct.
— Ben Miller (@NebIsBen) June 30, 2021
Every little thing he does makes his character more terrifying and more hilarious. For the second spot, I default to Jeffrey Wright in The French Dispatch. Few actors are more overdue than Wright and his awesome ode to James Baldwin is the best performance in a film filled with great ones.
That being said, I think these are the actual nominees. Predictions:
- Smit-McPhee
- Kotsur
- Cooper
- Hinds
- Leto
God, I hope not, but it's what makes the most sense.
Eric Blume: I’m gonna go with your top four there and since I’m feeling a Leto-less slate, I’ll say the fifth nominee is going to be Jesse Plemons. How about you reading this?
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Reader Comments (13)
I agree on everything you have said,I haven't seen HOG or WSS yet.
I wonder if Mass might have done better if 2 of the actors were leads or all of the cast we're leads,it would have benitted the men,Plimpton easily won my supporting actress trophy.
Cooper,Kotsur,McPhee then Hinds then Simmons.
I prefer Dornan to Hinds but the handsome guy always gets the boot at the expense of a veteran.
My own ballot
Kotsur,McPhee,Holland,Birney,Dornan - McPhee wins hands down,fascinating role.
I do wonder if there may be some voters who voted for Jared Leto last year and feel he was snubbed? He clearly has enough juice for a second nomination, but I still think he'll be the one who was left out on nomination morning. At least I hope so?
I don't see Smit-McPhee as the front runner just yet. I do think that SAG, and the the academy, could rally behind Kotsur, especially as the way to honor CODA.
I think both Belfast men will make it in. The industry seems to like that film. However, if they don't, I think we could see a left-field nomination for Mark Rylance or an expected nod for Leto.
My guess is Affleck (already SAG and Globe nominated!) makes it in. He's the best part of a rather mediocre film, and for any voter who's feeling blah about the field, he makes perfect sense as a choice. If a voter is on the fence, a reminder of the surprising fact that he's never been nominated for acting is likely to give a little push in his direction.
Maybe his acting isn't generally that well regarded, but I think his persistence over the years brings a certain presence to his roles, which helps. To quote Chinatown, "Politicians, ugly buildings, and whores all get respectable if they last long enough." It probably goes for actors too.
Smit-McPhee and Kotsur are locked in, and I think Hinds has a good enough part in a film that is still a strong across-the-board contender (despite general critical consensus turning on it). After them, Cooper makes sense and is very memorable.
Beyond them, Jared Leto could make it - but while he has racked up nominations from Globes and SAG for this or The Little Things, I think his poor reputation within Hollywood might hold him back from a nomination, and Oscar voters tend to be a little more discerning (see Aaron Taylor-Johnson missing for Nocturnal Animals in favour of a more 'classy' and well-liked Michael Shannon). The complete void of attention for Affleck's film makes me think he's an easy Bruhl/Rush or Chau/Downsizing style miss.
I think everyone's underestimating Mark Rylance (transformative and obvious like Leto's work, but from an actor that's pretty universally esteemed by his peers); the fact that his film is such a strong contender, he's got a 'scene' where the movie halts to give him a moment of complete focus, and the past two McKay films have landed in Supporting Actor for well-liked character actors.
Beyond them, Plemons and Dornan have a good shot, and Andrew Garfield could surprise for Tammy Faye. Watch out for Garfield, Plemons, and especially Rylance sneaking into BAFTA - it could portend a surprise.
I would absolutely love to think that Leto won't make it in, but alas, I've been burned too many times before. And I'd vote for Dornan of the Belfast gents if only because he was so brilliant in Barb & Star.
One minor thing, though: I get that it's just a turn of phrase, and I agree that he's a definite (and worthy) lock, but perhaps we shouldn't be writing that Troy Kotsur will "hear" his name called out on nomination morning? :)
My five: DeJesus, Domingo, Faist, Garfield, Jenkins (Nightmare Alley)
AMPAS five: Affleck, Cooper, Hinds, Kotsur, Smit-McPhee
Rob -- it's already been fixed. it's such a common phrase when talking about nominations that we didn't catch it until it was pointed out. sorry about that.
I am going to predict Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, Cooper, Hinds, and Dornan.I do think Leto will get several #1 and #2 votes but will not get enough of them to secure the nomination. Also, voters love the follow up Oscar nods for recent winners so perhaps this bodes well for Simmons or Rylance? I do not know - I am flummoxed. Wouldn't you LOVE to see the vote totals?!
I really appreciate the mentions of Jason Isaacs. All four parents in Mass are wonderful, but of the men Isaacs has a more interesting role and stands out more than Birney. I think it's wild that he's not in the conversation more - he's done a lot of good work, seems well regarded, and this would be a great opportunity to recognize him. Seems like the film just isn't getting any traction, which is a shame.
Amen on Colman Domingo.
Still not quite seeing what everyone else is in Smit-McPhee...he didn't even make my ballot. (Top ten, yes, but not top five.) Agree, though, this is his to lose, with Kotsur as his only likely challenger for the win.
I, too, prefer Dornan to Hinds but the latter was totally charming. I'd be fine with either of them in the mix. I hope Rylance doesn't have a real shot - I liked Don't Look Up better than most, but he didn't do anything for him, and the false teeth didn't help.
Have not seen Mass or Licorice Pizza - really need to remedy that, are they coming to any of the streaming services soon? - or Gucci - which I'm really trying to avoid.
Why is it that there'll be a swathe of critics that coalesces around pulling the rug from under the accolades a certain film has received. Why is there a Belfast backlash? What is the nonsense of critical tide turning against a film? In order for it to have turned, it had to be positive in the first place. Are the critics who eventually steer the boat of opinion on it motivated by sour grapes? Are they examples of these people who need everyone to see it their way? I've always found the phenomenon odd, especially within a single awards season. It makes more sense over time, because tastes change, but even there it irritates me. Moving on...
My five favorite supporting actor performances of the year are:
Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog
Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
Troy Kotsur - CODA
and...wait for it...
Owen Teale - Dream Horse
I'd give the Oscar to Hinds. Plemons would get it had he not all but vanished in the second half of the film. But I wanted to take a moment to bring people's attention to Owen Teale's work in Dream Horse, a little movie that critics seemed to like but considered slight. It's been awhile since I've seen such a rousing crowd-pleaser. But it's also a film that manages 1) to avoid going down the roads one would expect it to wander down, 2) to celebrate the idea of community, of shared responsibility and rejoicing, and 3) to give its audience not merely one, but two portraits of marriage that are honest, uncomfortable, complex and moving. And the performances are an enormous part of all of these, but particularly the latter. Owen Teale and Toni Collette are extraordinarily good in the film.
Does Jared Lero's Razzie nomination make it seem more likely he will get an Oscar nom?
@ Lenard W
If you mean karmically, then yes. Otherwise, no.