"Hamnet" wins the People's Choice at TIFF. Can it win Best Picture?
Sunday, September 14, 2025 at 11:34PM by Nathaniel R
HAMNET © Focus Features
With TIFF wrapping up today, it's time to update the Oscar charts (which we will be doing soon). Chloe Zhao's adaptation of the acclaimed novel Hamnet, historical fiction about the Shakespeares and the loss of their son, has the won the coveted People's Choice Award. While this prize has historically been very prophetic in regards to future Best Picture runs, Hamnet didn't need it per se; it's Oscar appeal was already ample given the subject matter, pedigree, rising stars, and ecstatic critical response. (We're super excited that Chloe Zhao will be able to follow Jane Campion in becoming only the second woman to score multiple nominations in Best Director. That might even happen twice this year with Kathryn Bigelow in the mix for A House of Dynamite) The runners up for the coveted People's Choice prize are slightly wilder cards in terms of Oscar gold...
First runner up Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein which can certainly boast pedigree with its Oscar winning auteur. His last live action feature, Nightmare Alley did well with nominations, despite being something of a fast fade in terms of audience and critical response. But how will voters respond to yet another Frankenstein adaptation? There have been over 400 films that have been inspired in some way by Mary Shelley's gothic tale though of course far fewer than that are direct adaptations. They may love Del Toro, but Frankenstein inspired features have very rarely had awards appeal apart from Yorgos Lanthimos' non-adaptation but Frankenstein influenced Poor Things (2023). The last true prestige adaptation, Kenneth Branagh's Mary Shelley's Frankenstein (1994), scored only a single nomination with both Oscar (Makeup) and BAFTA voters (in Production Design) though of course early reactions were not as positive as they've been for Del Toro's take on the material.
Second runner up was Rian Johnson's third Knives Out film Wake Up Dead Man. The first two films in the Knives Out franchise were both nominated for Screenplay but nothing else despite buzz (shortlived) for various performances and worthy / showy Production Design in the second film. This time around Josh O'Connor and perennial Oscar bridesmaid Glenn Close are scoring the 'best in show' reviews but will that mean anything to the acting branch who tend to steer clear of sequels? We suspect that the third film might come up empty handed... unless it can score in the brand new category for Best Casting!
OSCAR CHART UPDATES
Reader Comments (1)
"What a detailed analysis! The author delved into the potential Oscar contenders, not just based on the People's Choice Award but also by examining the award history of each director and film genre.
I couldn't agree more with the assessment of Hamnet. I actually stumbled upon it while looking for something to watch on the freecine app, and the poster immediately caught my eye. This film truly seems to have all the makings of an Oscar contender, and its win at TIFF only solidifies its position. I'm also thrilled at the prospect of Chloe Zhao setting a new record."